BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Red Sox

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Red Sox - Signed Pedroia

Boston Red Sox - Signed 2B Dustin Pedroia to a 6-year deal worth $40 million.

Not as cheap as it would’ve been if they were aggressive earlier, but it’s still a good deal for the Red Sox, even if Pedroia gives a lot of the 2007-2008 gain back. Maybe even a little better than good, with teams being very aggressive lately at locking up their best young players and helping make 2013-2015 some very boring free agent years. We’re not quit at the point at which Emilio Bonifacio looks to be the most valuable player available, but the more Pedroias and Brauns and Longorias get signed long-term, the closer we get!

6 years takes Pedroia through his age 30, so second basemen having one of the steeper aging curves doesn’t really affect him. There’s little danger of him needing to be moved off of 2B, either, at least not based on his career so far.

ZiPS Projection - Dustin Pedroia
—————————————————————————————————————-

              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-

2009         584 101 179  45   2  15   90  51   47  12 .307 .367 .467  114 
—————————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Billy Herman, Johnny Hodapp

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %

STAR    90

AVG     98

REP LV  100

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %

>160    1       >.400   29      >10     0       >200    22

>140    17      >.375   62      >5      19      >150    100

>120    48      >.350   89

>100    93      >.325   100     2B      %

>80     100     >.300   100     >45     60

>60     100                     >30     100

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %

>.350   15      >.550   10      >50     0       >70     0

>.325   45      >.500   44      >40     0       >50     0

>.300   77      >.450   84      >30     0       >30     4

>.275   98      >.400   99      >20     22      >10     76

>.250   100     >.350   100     >10     86

(Based on Projected PA)

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 03, 2008 at 08:19 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. villageidiom Posted: December 03, 2008 at 11:37 PM (#3020240)

OPS+ %
>100 93
>80 100

So he's probably 97-98% likely to outperform Cano's age-25 season.

2. Hugh Jorgan Posted: December 04, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#3020250)

3. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 04, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#3020253)

so how much would he likely have gotten his first year of arb? i imagine if he puts up the above line (seems a little pessimistic, but believable) he'd be an AS again and a potential Silver Slugger. 2 SS, 2 AS selections, an MVP, a GG, and ROY going into arb would make for a heck of a payday even for the first year, right?

4. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2008 at 05:19 AM (#3020424)

Less than $7mil per for a 24 year old, solid middle infielder, reigning MVP, with a lifetime OPS+ in excess of 110...sounds like a bargain to me even if the OPS+ averages only 100-105 for the next 6 years.

Not the right way to look at it.

They had him for league min next year then 3 years of arb. Now having won an MVP no doubt goes a long way with an arbitrator so he was probably looking at a min of $18 M over those 3 years and quite possibly more. The two FA years are costing them $22 M.

That's all still a good deal -- the risk of course being that he gets hurt or collapses -- but they probably could have gone year-by-year for 4 years and not taken that risk or just bought out his arb years for $18 M or probably less.

The AAV of arb buyout deals is almost meaningless -- at least in comparison to "market value." They have to be valued by comparing the potential savings to the risk of the guaranteed contract. I'll guess that the max Pedroia would get over the next 6 years would be about $50 M so is the $10 M savings worth the relatively small risk of a quick collapse and wasting most of that $40 M. Looks about right to me.

5. Darren

Posted: December 04, 2008 at 05:55 AM (#3020455)

3/18 for Arb? What does that break down as, 4-6-8? That seems awfully low, but you usually have a pretty solid handle on these things. Mind elaborating a bit on how you arrived at that figure?

6. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: December 04, 2008 at 06:03 AM (#3020461)

6/7/7? Assuming he doesn't win any more MVPs.

Hmm, that would be $20M already.

7. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#3020514)

3/18 for Arb? What does that break down as, 4-6-8? That seems awfully low, but you usually have a pretty solid handle on these things. Mind elaborating a bit on how you arrived at that figure?

I went with 3/6/9 though 4/6/8 also works ... 4/8/12 is my guess at the top end.

But I'm not up on these things so much these days ... and there are enough outliers now. So I'm not overly confident in that number.

So let's take a look at Cots. Utley's 3 arb years cost $23 M; Cano's on the 3/6/9 plan; Wright looks like $24; Hudson was $12.5; Braun is $18.5 I think (depends on super2 status); Sizemore is $13. He's not as good as Utley or Wright, he's better than Hudson, he looks similar to Cano at the time Cano got his deal. Braun's in there cuz the contracts are pretty similar. He's not as good as Sizemore so that's a very nice contract for the Indians.

And Pedroia is about $20. Of course that $20 should be the discounted price though the discount may be more in the 2/$20 with an option for $11 after that.

So let's say it would have been $21 (4/7/10) in arb? But really, who knows? Like I said, he's worse than Utley but then he'd be walking into the arb session with an RoY and an MVP and maybe that looks as good or better than Utley to an arbitrator.

Anyway, it's better than the Cano contract but I didn't think that was a particularly good one for the Yanks. I like it for the Red Sox but mainly think this amount is about right where it should be.

8. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 04, 2008 at 01:39 PM (#3020523)

Per Boston.com the arb years are $3.5 (2010), $5.5, and $8. But he also gets $1.5 next year in salary plus a $1.5 bonus. So that's $17 for the arb years plus about $2.5 he gets a year early. That seems about right with the arb numbers in # 7 but it depends a lot on when those deals were signed in relation to the player's service time. Boston should get a steep discount for doing this a year early. It looks like both Utley and Cano signed as they were entering arb for the first time (Cano as a Super 2?), which gave the players a little more leverage.

One other comp Brandon Phillips' recent contract, which paid/pays him $2.75M (2008), $4.75 (now 5 bc of the GG), and $6.75 along with a 0.75 signing bonus for his arb years, for a total of $15m. There is one FA year at $11 and then a club option (two at $10 for Pedroia). This was signed as Phillips was entering his first arb season.

9. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 04, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#3020631)

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/sox_therapy/discussion/weekly_minor_league_thread_the_end_of_the_ml_season/

71. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 16, 2006 at 12:02 AM (#2178572)

Jeter's far more than a year younger, closer to 2 years, and he's got far better speed. However, Pedroia seems to have him beat in power, contact, and discipline. All in all, they're pretty darn close.

There you have it. Pedroia is the next Derek Jeter, only with actual defense!

Ergo, Dustin Pedroia is the MVP of the American League!!

Who knew MCoA was so prescient? Any thoughts on Lars?

10. The Essex Snead Posted: December 04, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#3020637)

I would just like to give Dan props for the ODDIBE acronym, which is fantastic.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 04, 2008 at 04:49 PM (#3020639)

I would just like to give Dan props for the ODDIBE acronym, which is fantastic.

Not me, it was villageidiom's idea.

12. phoenixscienter Posted: December 04, 2008 at 10:21 PM (#3021043)

Where is the transactional analysis for the Braves-Chisox trade?? They've already had the presser and that's a pretty significant transaction.

13. The Essex Snead Posted: December 04, 2008 at 10:28 PM (#3021051)

Not me, it was villageidiom's idea.

Then I'll give villageidiom the kudos he deserves (which are slightly more coveted, and tastier, than props).

14. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 04, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#3021058)

Where is the transactional analysis for the Braves-Chisox trade?? They've already had the presser and that's a pretty significant transaction.

Working on it - I didn't want to do it until I saw the result of all the Reyes/Flowers variety of players.

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Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Red Sox - Signed Pedroia

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