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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Reds - Signed Dunn

Cincinnati Reds - Signed 1B Adam Dunn to a 2-year contract worth $18.5 million.

Now they did something smart (and I’m not talking about signing Quinton McCracken to a minor-league deal, which they also did today).  Dunn will make a guaranteed $18 million over the next 2 years with a $500K buyout if they don’t pick up the $13 million option year in 2008.  Little risk here as Dunn would probably make at least this in arbitration over the next two seasons and if he’s still as good a hitter as he is now, a 1-year, $13 million contract should look pretty nice down the road.  It was kind of scary to see the new GM talking about how they’re “not ruling out” signing Dunn, but they made the right move here.  Dunn, Flo, and Encarnacion should be the centerpieces of this franchise.  Now they just have to develop a centerfielder and a pitching staff; Griffey is not a centerfielder and their pitchers are only pitchers in the sense that they pitch balls.  Aaron Harang is one of the exceptions, but he’s not top-of-the-rotation material.

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2006 at 10:44 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:18 AM (#1862434)
Huzzah!

Here's to the hope that Quinton McCracken won't be showing up in a Diamondback uniform for the first time since 2001.
   2. Sparkles Peterson Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:21 AM (#1862441)
Beats the hell out of paying $10 million to Soriano, but this is the upper limit of what I'd expect Dunn to be worth in his last two years of arbitration. Excellent hitter, brutal defender.
   3. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:26 AM (#1862448)
Excellent hitter, brutal defender.

Really? I don't really know; I just remember there being whispers a couple of years back about Dunn being a much better fielder than you'd expect.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:39 AM (#1862462)
Beats the hell out of paying $10 million to Soriano, but this is the upper limit of what I'd expect Dunn to be worth in his last two years of arbitration.

He was already going to get at least $7.1 million, which is what the Reds offered. Another 40 homer season and his comparables list for the arbitrator gets really small and expensive.
   5. Sparkles Peterson Posted: February 15, 2006 at 02:15 PM (#1862702)
Didn't say that's the upper limit of what he would actually have made in arbitration, just what he'd be worth. Arbitrators pay attention to the wrong things a lot of the time.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#1862722)
Glad to hear about the Q; MLB needs more Duke alums.
   7. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#1862782)
Dude, Reds signed Tuffy Rhodes!!! (he's alive and well, and he's 37)
   8. Damon Rutherford Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#1862817)
Yeah, but they signed McCracken as well. How pathetic their farm system must be.
   9. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#1862823)
Dude, Reds signed Tuffy Rhodes!!! (he's alive and well, and he's 37)

I want a Zips projection too!
   10. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: February 15, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#1862833)
Yeah, but they signed McCracken as well. How pathetic their farm system must be.

Oh but he's got a cool baseball name, stash him around somewhere.
   11. Damon Rutherford Posted: February 15, 2006 at 06:21 PM (#1862969)
McCracken is a cool artery-busting medical term for eating at McDonalds.
   12. Anthony Giacalone Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#1863784)
Dude, Reds signed Tuffy Rhodes!!! (he's alive and well, and he's 37)

Dude, I was at the Cubs Opener in 1994 when Rhodes hit the three big flies off Doc Gooden. Took 'em 10 minutes to get all the hats off the warning track after the Bleacher Bums tossed their caps onto the field.

Of course, the Mets also hit three home runs (Vizcaino, Hundley and Kent) and the Cubs lost 12-8.
   13. Anthony Giacalone Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:23 AM (#1863792)
Dan, that 2008 option is voided if the Reds trade Dunn during the next two seasons. Dunn would then be a free agent after the 2007 season, on schedule.
   14. grich Posted: February 18, 2006 at 08:10 AM (#1866973)
Ahhh, Adam Dunn: another over/under-rated guy, sort of the Anti-Garret Anderson (over/under-rated by the opposite type of folks).

I've been drafting Dunn a bit high in my fantasy leagues based on the "What If Dunn hits .300 Scenario" (He'd be an absolute monster, that's what, not just a damn dangerous hitter).

So what if? Let's say Dunn has the exact same season as he did in 2005, but he hits .300--with 163 hits instead of 134. And let's say those extra 29 hits are divvied out with his usual ratio of hit types: 12 singles, 8 doubles and 9 homers (which is a bit generous, as both 2bs and HRs are rounded up). That gives him this line:

.300/.431/.657 with 43 doubles, 2 triples and 49 HR.

That's pretty sick, but will he do it? Probably not. I think the best we can hope for is .270--maybe with a peak season approaching .300, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

He is a pretty unique character, though; looking at Baseball Reference's most similar players, no one really suffices (and I'm surprised at the players that do rate over 900).
   15. CaptainDBack Posted: March 06, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#1884498)
Mojo McCracken is a true gentleman!!

We miss and love him.

Go MOJO!!
   16. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: March 06, 2006 at 06:34 AM (#1884991)
Grich, your "what if" scenario is a lot of fun, but someone who strikes out as much as Dunn is so unlikely ever to hit .300 that I'm unwilling to put a number (or even a description) to the possibility.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 06, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#1885950)
<I>Grich, your "what if" scenario is a lot of fun, but someone who strikes out as much as Dunn is so unlikely ever to hit .300 that I'm unwilling to put a number (or even a description) to the possibility.</I>

I'd bet against it in Dunn's case, but it's not as unlikely as you make it out to be. Bobby Bonds hit .302 while striking out 189 times, after all. Others have been in the vicinity - Jose Hernandez hit .288 when he struck out 188 times and Thome .291 and 185.

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