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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Reds - Acquired Hernandez

Cincinnati Reds - Acquired C Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for WG Ryan Freel, 2B Justin Turner, and 3B Brandon Waring.

Good trade for the Orioles.  The Orioles don’t save that much money but they pick up a couple of prospects that, while not Top Prospect Listworthy, are a good deal better than the usual salary dump throw-in guys.

And at this point, it’s essentially a minor salary dump.  Ramon Hernandez is no longer the Hernandez of 2003-2006 and while he’s not a bad player, he’s unlikely to be a huge plus and at his age and skill level, could very easily be the baseball equivalent of GM stock last year.  As bad as Paul Bako was, the Reds were only a bit below-average at catcher as a position and Hernandez is a long way from being a guaranteed improvement.

The Orioles gain Ryan Freel, whose main skill is being a white guy.  He’s the type of guy Oriole fans would love, at least when the organization actually had a lot of fans.  Freel is the least valuable player in the trade.

Justin Turner might be the most valuable player to switch hands in this transaction.  Nobody’s going to confuse him with Chase Utley, but he does a lot of things fairly well.  He’s got a little power, gets on base, plays decent defense.  He should start the season in AAA given that he’s 24.  The Orioles shouldn’t be penciling Turner in at 2B in their 2010 depth chart, but he’s worth paying attention to.  Brandon Waring appeared on some prospect lists after a huge professional debut (20 HR in 68 games for Billings), but his follow-up performance at Dayton wasn’t anywhere near what you want to see in a 22-year-old prospect.  He’s a fai 3B, so his glove isn’t going to push him to the majors if he doesn’t hit more.

ZiPS Projection - Ramon Hernandez (C)
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       433 49 114 23   1 14   71 35   70   1 .263 .326 .418   91  
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Offensive Comps:  Tony Pena, Gus Mancuso

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   12
AVG   54
REP LV 95

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   1     >.375   4     >5     0     >150   0
>130   2     >.350   21
>120   4     >.325   55     2B     %
>110   13     >.300   86     >45   0
>100   29               >30   14
>90   53
>80   76
>60   98

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   2     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   4     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   7     >.450   21     >30   2     >30   0
>.275   29     >.400   65     >20   6     >10   0
>.250   68     >.350   95     >10   88

(Based on Projected PA)

 

ZiPS Projection - Ryan Freel (CF)
—————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009       283 42 73 16   2   4   19 27 52 18 .258 .332 .371   82
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps:  Rich Amaral, Pete Fox

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   6
AVG   29
REP LV 73

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   1     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   9     >5     6     >150   0
>130   1     >.350   32
>120   2     >.325   67     2B     %
>110   7     >.300   90     >45   0
>100   16               >30   0
>90   32
>80   55
>60   90

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   1     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   7     >.450   7     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   30     >.400   23     >20   0     >10   94
>.250   66     >.350   63     >10   4

(Based on Projected PA)

 

ZiPS Projection - Brandon Waring (3B)
—————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009       464 46 110 20   0 16   55 31 121   8 .237 .294 .384   74
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps:  Brennan King, Kody Kirkland

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   6
AVG   29
REP LV 73

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   1     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   9     >5     6     >150   0
>130   1     >.350   32
>120   2     >.325   67     2B     %
>110   7     >.300   90     >45   0
>100   16               >30   0
>90   32
>80   55
>60   90

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   1     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   7     >.450   7     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   30     >.400   23     >20   0     >10   94
>.250   66     >.350   63     >10   4

(Based on Projected PA)

 

 

ZiPS Projection - Justin Turner (2B)
—————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009       474 55 119 19   0 10   49 28 70   9 .251 .297 .354   71
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps:  Pedro Lopez, Jayson Nix

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   4
AVG   11
REP LV 54

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   0     >5     2     >150   1
>130   0     >.350   3
>120   1     >.325   21     2B     %
>110   2     >.300   54     >45   0
>100   6               >30   8
>90   16
>80   34
>60   76

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   0     >.500   1     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   4     >.450   4     >30   0     >30   1
>.275   23     >.400   18     >20   4     >10   40
>.250   58     >.350   54     >10   43

(Based on Projected PA)

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2008 at 04:03 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Suff Posted: December 13, 2008 at 06:12 PM (#3028364)
Freel's and Waring's ODDIBEs are identical. I assume that you have Freel's listed twice.
   2. bookbook Posted: December 13, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#3028375)
I know it's not what you intended, but you make it sound like Baltimore has a racist fanbase. Baltimore is not even a terribly white city.
   3. Honkie Kong Posted: December 13, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#3028395)
WG Ryan Freel

niicee.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2008 at 07:51 PM (#3028409)
I know it's not what you intended, but you make it sound like Baltimore has a racist fanbase.

Not overtly, no, but Oriole fans are among the worst I've observed regarding Mediocre White Guy Worship.

Baltimore is not even a terribly white city.

The attendance at Camden Yards isn't exactly made up of Baltimore residents. I mean, how many cities have separate mass transit lines, one for where White People Like to Go and one for where White People Don't Want to Go?
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 13, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#3028414)
It's amusing that in baseball, where most of the players are white guys, you can still be such an archetypal white guy that fans love you (Ryan Freel) much more than all the other white guys on your team.
   6. Answer Guy Posted: December 13, 2008 at 08:27 PM (#3028437)
I mean, how many cities have separate mass transit lines, one for where White People Like to Go and one for where White People Don't Want to Go?


I almost spit out my Diet Coke when I read this. I live near the former of those two lines. Nonetheless if you're white you're outnumbered on it most of the time, except before and after Orioles or Ravens games, and *maybe* at peak commuter times.
   7. CraigK Posted: December 13, 2008 at 09:11 PM (#3028452)
Not overtly, no, but Oriole fans are among the worst I've observed regarding Mediocre White Guy Worship.

Bo Hart, David Eckstein, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy.
   8. Silencio Posted: December 13, 2008 at 11:19 PM (#3028488)
Can we get a Wieters projection? Its relevant to the deal, but mostly I just want to see how bad ass it is.
   9. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 13, 2008 at 11:34 PM (#3028494)
Bo Hart, David Eckstein, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy.

Skip Schumacher! Stubby Clapp! Craig Paquette! Joe McEwing!

And they even broke new ground as the first team to have a scrappy Asian guy (So Taguchi).
   10. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 13, 2008 at 11:35 PM (#3028497)
Truly the Cardinals have been the standardbearers for scrappiness for as long as I can remember. Why, when I was a teenager they even had a scrappy black guy (Kerry Robinson), a scrappy Japanese guy (So Taguchi), and a scrappy Latino (Fernando Viña), all at roughly the same time.
   11. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: December 14, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#3028509)
Dammit, I was hoping for Livan.
   12. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 14, 2008 at 12:14 AM (#3028512)
I don't see how how you can say the Reds were only a bit below-average at catcher last year. The average 2008 NL catcher had a 715 OPS, while Reds catchers had a 681 OPS that was aided by their home park and Ryan Hanigan's hot month never-to-be-repeated-again. Ramon Hernandez should be a lot happier in Cincy this season, and in a contract year I expect him to be motivated. As for the prospects, Turner will probably be a nice UTIL guy in a few years and Waring has almost no chance at making the big leagues. Overall, I think the trade helps out both sides. The Reds were in desperate need for a catcher and paid almost nothing to be a guy who should be pretty league-average. The Orioles dumped a guy they didn't want and got two C prospects plus someone who will help them in 2009 until he runs through a wall and/or another outfielder...
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2008 at 12:21 AM (#3028513)
Unofficial projection for Wieters - 293/363/473 in 501 at-bats, 118 OPS+. 64% to be top 20% of catchers, 13% OPS+ >140.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2008 at 12:34 AM (#3028515)
I don't see how how you can say the Reds were only a bit below-average at catcher last year.

Relative to catcher average, the Reds had a 92 OPS+. Below-average, but we're not talking a mile.


The average 2008 NL catcher had a 715 OPS, while Reds catchers had a 681 OPS that was aided by their home park and Ryan Hanigan's hot month never-to-be-repeated-again.


You can't just eliminate data you don't like. The league-average also contains lots of small sample size performances that won't be repeated. Paul Bako won't eat up 300 at-bats ever again either and they were far more damaging to the bottom line than Hanigan's line was helpful.

Hernandez just isn't that good anymore. He'll be a 33-year-old catcher who is a mediocre hitter and no longer controls the running game. The team is no better off than if they just went with the 2008 catchers, minus the terrible Bako.
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 14, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#3028521)
If the Orioles signed Tex -- and I realize that that's an enormous if -- by how many runs will the Orioles improve with Tex replacing Millar, Wieters replacing Hernandez, and Izturis replacing the Orioles' horrible collection of shortstops? It has to be at least 20-30 runs on defense alone.
   16. DKDC Posted: December 14, 2008 at 04:25 AM (#3028557)
I did some projections on that earlier this week. I don't have them in front of me, but I believe the improvement from the shortstops last year to Izturis is roughly the same as Millar-to-Tex (~4 wins).

Somehow the O's managed to to field SS's that were more than a win below replacement with the bat AND more than a win below average with the glove.

They also figure to lose a couple wins at DH as Huff comes back to earth, but Wieters could/should make up for that.

With Tex, that's still shy of a .500 team unless they also find some pitching.
   17. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 14, 2008 at 04:48 AM (#3028568)
Well the 2008 catching corps consisted of Paul Bako, Dave Ross, Javier Valentin, and Ryan Hanigan. The first three are gone, so it will be interesting to see if you're Ryan Hanigan projection will be better than Hernandez...
   18. shock Posted: December 14, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#3028580)
Bo Hart, David Eckstein, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy.


David Eckstein, John McDonald, Joe Inglett, Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson!

And I had learned from the wire that Baltimore was mostly black...
   19. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 14, 2008 at 06:09 AM (#3028581)
David Eckstein, John McDonald, Joe Inglett, Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson!


Nah, you want the real White Jays list, you go with McDonald, Reed Johnson, Matt Stairs (although he got a boost from being Canadian), and Gregg Zaun.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'll concede that I've got a soft spot for Brian Wolfe, and in the past I enjoyed the play of Frank ".301/.400/.504 + one relief appearance" Menechino.
   20. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 14, 2008 at 06:10 AM (#3028582)
And Frank Catalanotto. I can't believe I missed Frankie Cat.
   21. Drexl Spivey Posted: December 14, 2008 at 07:56 AM (#3028588)
"Nah, you want the real White Jays list..."

The White Jays had nothing on the Black Brewers of 2008 (Prince, CC, Billy Hall, Cameron, Weeks, Gwynn Jr., and Durham).
   22. DCW3 Posted: December 14, 2008 at 08:01 AM (#3028590)
Bo Hart, David Eckstein, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy.

Point taken, but I've never encountered any Cardinal fans who worshipped Adam Kennedy.
   23. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: December 14, 2008 at 09:14 AM (#3028601)
I mean, how many cities have separate mass transit lines, one for where White People Like to Go and one for where White People Don't Want to Go?

I don't know, but every town has two malls: the mall white people go to, and the mall white people *used to* go to. </Chris Rock>
   24. Toolsy McClutch Posted: December 14, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#3028650)
And I had learned from the wire that Baltimore was mostly black...


Shhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiittttttt, that's exactly what I was thinking. Damn TV!
   25. Jeff K. Posted: December 14, 2008 at 05:56 PM (#3028659)
You can't just eliminate data you don't like.

Says who? Elliptical orbits? Who needs 'em! Heliocentric Solar System theory is wrong! Things fall when you drop them? Bah, it's goblins carrying them. Invisible goblins! Screw you and your "gravity".

Be careful or I'll think you out of existence too, Dan.
   26. Jeff K. Posted: December 14, 2008 at 07:21 PM (#3028702)
I don't know, but every town has two malls: the mall white people go to, and the mall white people *used to* go to. </Chris Rock>

And the one they used to go to is on MLK Boulevard.

You're on MLK? RUN

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