Reds - Acquired Hernandez
Cincinnati Reds - Acquired C Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for WG Ryan Freel, 2B Justin Turner, and 3B Brandon Waring.
Good trade for the Orioles. The Orioles don’t save that much money but they pick up a couple of prospects that, while not Top Prospect Listworthy, are a good deal better than the usual salary dump throw-in guys.
And at this point, it’s essentially a minor salary dump. Ramon Hernandez is no longer the Hernandez of 2003-2006 and while he’s not a bad player, he’s unlikely to be a huge plus and at his age and skill level, could very easily be the baseball equivalent of GM stock last year. As bad as Paul Bako was, the Reds were only a bit below-average at catcher as a position and Hernandez is a long way from being a guaranteed improvement.
The Orioles gain Ryan Freel, whose main skill is being a white guy. He’s the type of guy Oriole fans would love, at least when the organization actually had a lot of fans. Freel is the least valuable player in the trade.
Justin Turner might be the most valuable player to switch hands in this transaction. Nobody’s going to confuse him with Chase Utley, but he does a lot of things fairly well. He’s got a little power, gets on base, plays decent defense. He should start the season in AAA given that he’s 24. The Orioles shouldn’t be penciling Turner in at 2B in their 2010 depth chart, but he’s worth paying attention to. Brandon Waring appeared on some prospect lists after a huge professional debut (20 HR in 68 games for Billings), but his follow-up performance at Dayton wasn’t anywhere near what you want to see in a 22-year-old prospect. He’s a fai 3B, so his glove isn’t going to push him to the majors if he doesn’t hit more.
ZiPS Projection - Ramon Hernandez (C)
—————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009 433 49 114 23 1 14 71 35 70 1 .263 .326 .418 91
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Offensive Comps: Tony Pena, Gus Mancuso
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 12
AVG 54
REP LV 95
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 1 >.375 4 >5 0 >150 0
>130 2 >.350 21
>120 4 >.325 55 2B %
>110 13 >.300 86 >45 0
>100 29 >30 14
>90 53
>80 76
>60 98
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 4 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 7 >.450 21 >30 2 >30 0
>.275 29 >.400 65 >20 6 >10 0
>.250 68 >.350 95 >10 88
(Based on Projected PA)
ZiPS Projection - Ryan Freel (CF)
—————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009 283 42 73 16 2 4 19 27 52 18 .258 .332 .371 82
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Rich Amaral, Pete Fox
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 6
AVG 29
REP LV 73
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0
>140 0 >.375 9 >5 6 >150 0
>130 1 >.350 32
>120 2 >.325 67 2B %
>110 7 >.300 90 >45 0
>100 16 >30 0
>90 32
>80 55
>60 90
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 7 >.450 7 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 30 >.400 23 >20 0 >10 94
>.250 66 >.350 63 >10 4
(Based on Projected PA)
ZiPS Projection - Brandon Waring (3B)
—————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009 464 46 110 20 0 16 55 31 121 8 .237 .294 .384 74
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Brennan King, Kody Kirkland
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 6
AVG 29
REP LV 73
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0
>140 0 >.375 9 >5 6 >150 0
>130 1 >.350 32
>120 2 >.325 67 2B %
>110 7 >.300 90 >45 0
>100 16 >30 0
>90 32
>80 55
>60 90
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 7 >.450 7 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 30 >.400 23 >20 0 >10 94
>.250 66 >.350 63 >10 4
(Based on Projected PA)
ZiPS Projection - Justin Turner (2B)
—————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009 474 55 119 19 0 10 49 28 70 9 .251 .297 .354 71
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Pedro Lopez, Jayson Nix
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 4
AVG 11
REP LV 54
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 0 >.375 0 >5 2 >150 1
>130 0 >.350 3
>120 1 >.325 21 2B %
>110 2 >.300 54 >45 0
>100 6 >30 8
>90 16
>80 34
>60 76
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 0 >.500 1 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 4 >.450 4 >30 0 >30 1
>.275 23 >.400 18 >20 4 >10 40
>.250 58 >.350 54 >10 43
(Based on Projected PA)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 13, 2008 at 04:03 PM |
26 comment(s)
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1. Suff Posted: December 13, 2008 at 06:12 PM (#3028364)niicee.
Not overtly, no, but Oriole fans are among the worst I've observed regarding Mediocre White Guy Worship.
Baltimore is not even a terribly white city.
The attendance at Camden Yards isn't exactly made up of Baltimore residents. I mean, how many cities have separate mass transit lines, one for where White People Like to Go and one for where White People Don't Want to Go?
I almost spit out my Diet Coke when I read this. I live near the former of those two lines. Nonetheless if you're white you're outnumbered on it most of the time, except before and after Orioles or Ravens games, and *maybe* at peak commuter times.
Bo Hart, David Eckstein, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy.
Skip Schumacher! Stubby Clapp! Craig Paquette! Joe McEwing!
And they even broke new ground as the first team to have a scrappy Asian guy (So Taguchi).
Relative to catcher average, the Reds had a 92 OPS+. Below-average, but we're not talking a mile.
The average 2008 NL catcher had a 715 OPS, while Reds catchers had a 681 OPS that was aided by their home park and Ryan Hanigan's hot month never-to-be-repeated-again.
You can't just eliminate data you don't like. The league-average also contains lots of small sample size performances that won't be repeated. Paul Bako won't eat up 300 at-bats ever again either and they were far more damaging to the bottom line than Hanigan's line was helpful.
Hernandez just isn't that good anymore. He'll be a 33-year-old catcher who is a mediocre hitter and no longer controls the running game. The team is no better off than if they just went with the 2008 catchers, minus the terrible Bako.
Somehow the O's managed to to field SS's that were more than a win below replacement with the bat AND more than a win below average with the glove.
They also figure to lose a couple wins at DH as Huff comes back to earth, but Wieters could/should make up for that.
With Tex, that's still shy of a .500 team unless they also find some pitching.
David Eckstein, John McDonald, Joe Inglett, Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson!
And I had learned from the wire that Baltimore was mostly black...
Nah, you want the real White Jays list, you go with McDonald, Reed Johnson, Matt Stairs (although he got a boost from being Canadian), and Gregg Zaun.
In the interest of full disclosure, I'll concede that I've got a soft spot for Brian Wolfe, and in the past I enjoyed the play of Frank ".301/.400/.504 + one relief appearance" Menechino.
The White Jays had nothing on the Black Brewers of 2008 (Prince, CC, Billy Hall, Cameron, Weeks, Gwynn Jr., and Durham).
Point taken, but I've never encountered any Cardinal fans who worshipped Adam Kennedy.
I don't know, but every town has two malls: the mall white people go to, and the mall white people *used to* go to. </Chris Rock>
Shhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiittttttt, that's exactly what I was thinking. Damn TV!
Says who? Elliptical orbits? Who needs 'em! Heliocentric Solar System theory is wrong! Things fall when you drop them? Bah, it's goblins carrying them. Invisible goblins! Screw you and your "gravity".
Be careful or I'll think you out of existence too, Dan.
And the one they used to go to is on MLK Boulevard.
You're on MLK? RUN
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