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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 14, 2005

Rockies - Acquired Day

Colorado Rockies - Acquired P Zach Day and OF J.J. Davis from the Washington Nationals for OF Preston Wilson; signed P Mike Stanton.

As Josh Heit suggested, Nick Johnson must really be injured badly to make the Nationals acquire Preston Wilson.  Wilson hasn’t even had a good Coorsflated season in a couple of years, let alone put up numbers that would make any team want him unless it was on a dare or something.  I’m not at all sure that J.J. Davis isn’t a better player than Preston Wilson, let alone a guy like Val Pascucci who the Nats dropped for free.

Day’s been terrible this year, but he does have a history of being a serviceable pitcher, something that most teams could use.  Is he a Coors pitcher?  I don’t know - there are only 2 real Coors pitchers in history, Steve Reed and a mythical pitcher that strikes out 27 batters per 9 innings without using any pitches that require movement.  This is great fortune for J.J. Davis - he could hack his way into perceived stardom, much like Wilson did 2 years ago.

Apparently, nobody wanted to even give up 2 bad pitchers for Stanton as the Padres did for Quantrill.  Stanton will be the #2 lefty and on a short leash since the Nats didn’t give up anything for him.

2005 ZiPS Projection - Preston Wilson
——————————————————————————————————
Period     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
——————————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05 267 39   69 15 1 15 47 25 77   3 .258 .322 .491
Rest ‘05   214 24   52 12 0   9 28 21 56   3 .243 .314 .425
——————————————————————————————————
Total ‘05 481 63 121 27 1 24 75 46 133   6 .252 .318 .462

 

2005 ZiPS Projection - Mike Stanton
—————————————————————————————-
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
—————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05   1   2 28   0   14   17   11   1   6 12 7.07
Rest ‘05   2   1 31   0   26   25   12   2 12 20 4.15
—————————————————————————————-
Total ‘05   3   3 59   0   40   42   23   3 18 32 5.17

2005 ZiPS Projection - Zach Day
——————————————————————————————
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05*  2   2 15   8   49   54   33   6 26 25 6.06
Rest ‘05     2   3 11   8   48   56   31   6 24 24 5.81
——————————————————————————————
* - Includes MLE

 

2005 ZiPS Projection - J.J. Davis
——————————————————————————————————-
Period     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
——————————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05* 198 35   53 10 0 12 33 19 63   3 .268 .335 .500
Rest ‘05   163 28   46   9 0 11 29 16 43   3 .282 .350 .540
——————————————————————————————————-
* - Includes MLE

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 14, 2005 at 02:56 AM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JH (in DC) Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:28 AM (#1470481)
Day might work in Coors; he's an extreme groundball pitcher (career G/F ratio: 2.34).

Wilson's going from the best hitter's park in baseball to the worst. Not that I think it'll matter that much in this case. But he had better not be taking playing time from Ryan Church.
   2. SM in DC Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:54 AM (#1470513)
Does anyone honestly think that a platoon of Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd wouldn't be just as effective as Preston Wilson?

Yeah, me neither.
   3. SM in DC Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:57 AM (#1470519)
Just for comparison's sake...

Byrd vs. LHP: .321/.355/.411
Church vs. RHP: .328/.380/.547

The only way this makes sense is you're going to move Wilkerson to first on a semi-permanent basis due to a serious Johnson injury.
   4. Joshemy Posted: July 14, 2005 at 04:22 AM (#1470566)
4.15 for Stanton the rest of the year? Hah.
   5. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2005 at 05:25 AM (#1470683)
He's been below 4.15 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and 14 IP this year doesn't really change my opinion of him very much.
   6. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2005 at 05:30 AM (#1470694)
The only way this makes sense is you're going to move Wilkerson to first on a semi-permanent basis due to a serious Johnson injury.

Bowden isn't expecting Johnson back anytime soon, based on his quotes in the Thursday WaPo.

Considering Humpty Dumpty is a quicker healer than Johnson, it's not an unreasonable position.
   7. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: July 14, 2005 at 05:40 AM (#1470716)
stanton is the perfect arguement for scouts over stats. everyone's all "oh, well his numbers aren't that bad."- but ask any mets fan about him.

seriously, the guy seems to think it's his job to let inherited runners score.
   8. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:31 AM (#1470777)
seriously, the guy seems to think it's his job to let inherited runners score.

Wouldn't the solution to that problem, if it's a meaningful/predictive aspect of his performance, be to have him start innings or come in without runners on base?
   9. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 14, 2005 at 12:01 PM (#1470855)
Wouldn't the solution to that problem, if it's a meaningful/predictive aspect of his performance, be to have him start innings or come in without runners on base?

Well, yes, but "LOOGY-who-can't-come-in-with-guys-on-base" is not a particularly valuable thing, even if skilled in such role.
   10. Millon deFloss Posted: July 14, 2005 at 12:48 PM (#1470866)
Interesting projection for J.J. Davis, inasmuch as he couldn't hit a breaking ball if you told him it was coming.
   11. PhillyBooster Posted: July 14, 2005 at 01:33 PM (#1470913)
Stanton's job will apparently be to come into the game in the ninth inning when the Nationals are trailing by one, in order to improve the Nationals' record in one-run games.
   12. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 14, 2005 at 02:04 PM (#1470968)
The Nats' signing of Stanton all but assures that they will not win the NL East...
   13. Grunthos Posted: July 14, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1470989)
The Nats are only paying $2M... that won't be enough outlay to prevent Bodes from making other deals. Thus, I must consider this trade a failure. I hope Wilson doesn't get off to a hot start in DC... not only will it superficially look good on Bowden's resume, but Boswell will be insufferable.
   14. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: July 14, 2005 at 02:28 PM (#1471012)
As a former San Juan Expos fan, here are my three cents (to account for inflation):

1 - My girlfriend will be heartbroken, she truly liked Zach Day, he's cute.
2 - Where is Valentino Pascucci right now? Even though he is not cute, it was such a joy following his career from the Winter Leagues to striking out at Major League Level. I once saw him at Outback Steakhouse and I was all 'hey', and he was 'hey' - kind of like The Rick type of moment
3 - Preston F. Wilson is better than Endy Chavez. Also, he fits the tools mold that JimBo likes.
   15. 1k5v3L Posted: July 14, 2005 at 02:30 PM (#1471021)
Val is big in Japan. I can't believe NO major league team took a flier on him.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:03 PM (#1471099)
"Interesting projection for J.J. Davis, inasmuch as he couldn't hit a breaking ball if you told him it was coming."

I would tend to disagree with this.
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:07 PM (#1471108)
Can JJ Davis play CF?
   18. Danny Posted: July 14, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1471207)
Considering Humpty Dumpty is a quicker healer than Johnson, it's not an unreasonable position.

That's pretty funny.
   19. Millon deFloss Posted: July 14, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1471297)
Vlad

Have you ever seen J.J. Davis at bat (I have)?. He looks like a man with a butterfly net whenever he sees a breaking ball.

Hell, I could throw him three curveballs and get him out, and I've been dead for 39 years.
   20. JustDan Posted: July 14, 2005 at 04:38 PM (#1471404)
The Nats' signing of Stanton all but assures that they will not win the NL East...

I don't care for the signing, but there is no way that Stanton blows the season for the Nats. He's a LOOGY!!. If he's ineffective, then he's out the door and not much is lost.

But what really gets my goat is the fact that Wilson will be getting playing time over Church, even though Church is better. argh!
   21. BTL: Lesser Primate, 4th Class Trainee Posted: July 14, 2005 at 05:01 PM (#1471493)
But what really gets my goat is the fact that Wilson will be getting playing time over Church, even though Church is better. argh!

Ryan Church: 17.5 VORP
Preston Wilson 10.5 VORP (or 11, I just forgot)

Even though Wilson's on my roto team, unfortunately he's not going to get the PT -- he just doesn't have it anymore, the knee may have a lot to do with it, and the Nationals will see that
   22. Rudy Pemberton Posted: July 14, 2005 at 06:16 PM (#1471701)
Whether someone wanted to give up 2 bad pitchers for Stanton (as the Pads did for Quantrill) isn't really relevant; Stanton had a no-trade clause and controlled his own destiny.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2005 at 06:23 PM (#1471724)
I would tend to disagree with this.

As in if you told him a breaking ball was coming, he might be able to hit it? :-)

Looks like a good trade for the Rox. And glad to hear the Rox weren't dumb enough to sign Stanton as the intro implies.
   24. PhillyBooster Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:11 PM (#1471903)
Based on a sample size of one plate appearance, this trade has worked out well for the Nationals.
   25. Millon deFloss Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:25 PM (#1471955)
It's not necessarily a bad trade for either club. Davis fell on his face here in April. Day has decent stuff, but he sure as hell doesn't dare anybody out there, and has trouble getting the ball over the plate.
   26. Mister High Standards Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1472007)
I like the trade for the Rox. Day has some upside, not as much as I though 2 years ago but certainly some.

Davis is a rotation outfielder - which Colorado is swimming in.

They didn't give up anything of real value, though they might take a PR hit. At this point, the PR hit isn't all that big of a deal since they have such little talent in the organazation.
   27. jingoist Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:47 PM (#1472045)
I think what we have here is numerous issues being addressed with one trade.
1. Day and F Robbie didn't see eye-to-eye. Day thought he was better than his stats/play showed; Frank thought otherwise;
2. Johnson is hurt worse than originally thought; Wilkerson will play some 1B as Wil Cordero, great fielder, poor hitter, cannot drive in the runs necessary from a 1B-man that the Nat's require;
3. Church really, really hurt himself when he crashed into the wall making a game-saving catch last month. He ain't quite right yet. Marlon Byrd got off to a quick start with the Nats when he cam over from Philly but has slumped the past month. They desperately need hitting/run creation and P Wilson was someone they could get for "the right price".

The Nats are dead last in runs scored; theodds say that they will not have the same degree of luck in the second half of 05 in one-run games that they did in the first half of 05.

When Church is completely healed you will see him in the lineup quite often; likewise Wilerson will play CF when Johnson is healthy. Until then it's band-aids and scrubs.
   28. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: July 14, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1472058)
I wish I had enough faith in Bowden/Robby to believe that that were true. (not that I'm a Robby hater - Frank is the man)

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