Royals - Acquired Jacobs
Kansas City Royals - Acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins for P Leo Nunez.
From a pure value-for-value standpoint, Mike Jacobs is worth giving up Leo Nunez, who isn’t really a 143 ERA+ reliever. However, I just don’t see it as a good move for this team in particular team. The team does improve going from Ross Gload to Jacobs (you have to feel for Gload, finally getting real shots on the far slope of his career), but the Royals aren’t a serious contender in 2009. A rebuilding team always has questions that it seeks to answer and a lot of the questions the Royals have involve the 1B/DH position. It gets even more crowded if Alex Gordon continues to develop as a hitter but plays as poorly defensively at third as he did this season. Sure, in theory, they could flip Mike Jacobs later on, but Jacobs also happens to be a very limited defensive platoon 1B and if he could be flipped for something more valuable than Leo Nunez, the Marlins probably would have done it.
The Marlins will probably have the 1B spot fairly wide open in the spring training, with Cantu/McPherson/Sanchez and probably a few others in the 1B/3B mix.
2009 ZiPS Projection - Mike Jacobs
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DR
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2009 478 67 125 33 1 24 82 36 100 1 .262 .313 .485 106 -7
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Opt. (15%) 544 84 152 40 2 30 101 44 104 1 .279 .334 .526 122 -5
Pes. (15%) 412 43 98 24 1 17 60 28 94 0 .238 .287 .425 84 -10
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Top Offensive Comps: Rico Brogna, Gordy Coleman
2009 ZiPS Projection - Leo Nunez
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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2009 2 2 43 0 49 49 23 6 19 36 4.22 101
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Opt. (15%) 4 2 47 0 56 50 20 5 18 45 3.21 133
Pes. (15%) 2 2 36 0 39 43 23 6 19 27 5.31 81
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Top Comps: John Verhoeven, Joey McLaughlin
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 31, 2008 at 09:14 PM |
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1. Matt Waters Posted: November 01, 2008 at 01:10 AM (#3000826)Well, I am encouraged that ZIPS projects a slight increase in OBA for Jacobs. It also projects fewer home runs. Supposedly Jacobs hits a higher number of "no doubters" than average, so maybe the home runs won't be deflated that much at Kauffman.
I'll be interested in seeing ZIPS for Shealy and Kila.
2008
Home: .238 .273 .484
Road: .258 .325 .547
2007
Home: .256 .308 .462
Road: .276 .329 .453
2006
Home: .247 .299 .498
Road: .276 .348 .451
Considering that guys usually hit much better at home, I could see Jacobs really blossoming in a neutral or hitters' park. That optimistic line looks pretty doable.
between the AL and NL?
Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF? Unless he is, moving him to 1B really cripples his value. Also, is Maybin really ready? he's only 21. Why not let him play a full year in AAA, and keep the Arb/FA clock from starting?
Just doing a little math, it seems that ZiPs does take into account unintentional walks. The increase is probably more a result of his previous bad but not horrible UiBB rates. A three year weighted average of Jacobs' unintentional walks gets you ~33 in 500 PAs, which accounts for a 27% spike. Considering that he's shown more ability to walk in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if most projection systems showed a similar increases in walk rate.
If by very good you mean as good as Beltran you are crazy. I haven't seen numbers from this year but in past years he has been signficantly below average which isn't surprising for a shorty, stocky guy who isn't that fast.
It doesn't make sense to move a CF to 1B (though it's been done before). Move him to left, then move Willingham to 1st.
Didn't the Mets that moved Lee Mazzilli from CF to 1B, b/c "You've got to have a good hitter at 1B".
Well, if he has guys like John Buck and Mark Teahen hitting behind him, he may actually increase his intentional walk total.
Oh it's been done. Like when the Angels had 4 good outfielders and moved Erstad to first instead of Anderson or Salmon. But it doesn't make sense.
That was my initial point. A guy would have to be so bad in CF, it would be unlikely he'd ever have gotten there (instead or RF or LF) in the first place. Barring some sort of catastrophic injury that affects fielding but not hitting.
Shealy is a carbon copy, with slightly more walks 263/333/461 344 wOBA.
I've got Kila at 247/347/442 346 wOBA, dreadfully low 261 BABIP. Kala actually projects better 258/356/480 363 wOBA
1998-2008 MLB 1b mean wOBA is 357
He does, he absolutely crushes the ball, I saw him as a Met farmhand ion Binghamton, with the Mets, and several times with the Marlins- was absolutely mystified why he didn't hit more homers...
I think he has a lot of nagging injuries, he also has trouble making contact at times, and his BABIP cratered last year.
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