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Transaction Oracle
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Friday, October 31, 2008

Royals - Acquired Jacobs

Kansas City Royals - Acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins for P Leo Nunez.

From a pure value-for-value standpoint, Mike Jacobs is worth giving up Leo Nunez, who isn’t really a 143 ERA+ reliever. However, I just don’t see it as a good move for this team in particular team. The team does improve going from Ross Gload to Jacobs (you have to feel for Gload, finally getting real shots on the far slope of his career), but the Royals aren’t a serious contender in 2009. A rebuilding team always has questions that it seeks to answer and a lot of the questions the Royals have involve the 1B/DH position. It gets even more crowded if Alex Gordon continues to develop as a hitter but plays as poorly defensively at third as he did this season. Sure, in theory, they could flip Mike Jacobs later on, but Jacobs also happens to be a very limited defensive platoon 1B and if he could be flipped for something more valuable than Leo Nunez, the Marlins probably would have done it.

The Marlins will probably have the 1B spot fairly wide open in the spring training, with Cantu/McPherson/Sanchez and probably a few others in the 1B/3B mix.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Mike Jacobs
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              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  DR   
—————————————————————————————————————————

2009         478  67  125  33  1  24  82  36 100   1  .262  .313  .485   106   -7
—————————————————————————————————————————

Opt. (15%)   544  84  152  40  2  30 101  44 104   1  .279  .334  .526   122   -5 

Pes. (15%)   412  43   98  24  1  17  60  28  94   0  .238  .287  .425    84  -10 
—————————————————————————————————————————

Top Offensive Comps: Rico Brogna, Gordy Coleman

2009 ZiPS Projection - Leo Nunez
————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009 2 2 43 0 49 49 23 6 19 36 4.22 101
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 4 2 47 0 56 50 20 5 18 45 3.21 133
Pes. (15%) 2 2 36 0 39 43 23 6 19 27 5.31 81
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: John Verhoeven, Joey McLaughlin

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2008 at 10:14 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: November 01, 2008 at 02:10 AM (#3000826)

I think Nunez is overlooked. His strikeout numbers don’t jump out at you, but his stuff really is electric. Love this trade for the Marlins.

2. Steve M. Posted: November 01, 2008 at 02:32 AM (#3000835)

Agreed. Great trade for the Marlins. Jacobs won't be missed and Nunez has pretty good stuff. I just don't see what Dayton was thinking here.

3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 03:00 AM (#3000843)

Why do you make it so hard for me to love you Dayton?

Well, I am encouraged that ZIPS projects a slight increase in OBA for Jacobs. It also projects fewer home runs. Supposedly Jacobs hits a higher number of "no doubters" than average, so maybe the home runs won't be deflated that much at Kauffman.

I'll be interested in seeing ZIPS for Shealy and Kila.

4. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 03:00 AM (#3000845)

Any thoughts of making Cody Ross a first baseman with Maybin sliding into CF duty? Ross finished decent last season at 260 / 316 / 488. Basically what they got out of Jacobs minus a few HRs.

5. Darren

Posted: November 01, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#3000931)

Jacbos seems to get absolutely murdered by the park in Miami:

2008
Home: .238 .273 .484
Road: .258 .325 .547

2007
Home: .256 .308 .462
Road: .276 .329 .453

2006
Home: .247 .299 .498
Road: .276 .348 .451

Considering that guys usually hit much better at home, I could see Jacobs really blossoming in a neutral or hitters' park. That optimistic line looks pretty doable.

6. tfbg9 Posted: November 01, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#3000936)

Does ZIPS take into account the differences in strength
between the AL and NL?

7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 03:33 PM (#3000946)

Any thoughts of making Cody Ross a first baseman with Maybin sliding into CF duty? Ross finished decent last season at 260 / 316 / 488. Basically what they got out of Jacobs minus a few HRs.

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF? Unless he is, moving him to 1B really cripples his value. Also, is Maybin really ready? he's only 21. Why not let him play a full year in AAA, and keep the Arb/FA clock from starting?

8. Keith Law Posted: November 01, 2008 at 03:42 PM (#3000952)

9. Starlin of the Slipstream (TRHN) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#3000960)

I don't see why it would be particularly surprising if Jacobs walk rate improved by 38% from such a low starting point. It's like when Ozzie Guillen's walk rate increased 220% from 1996 to 1997.

Just doing a little math, it seems that ZiPs does take into account unintentional walks. The increase is probably more a result of his previous bad but not horrible UiBB rates. A three year weighted average of Jacobs' unintentional walks gets you ~33 in 500 PAs, which accounts for a 27% spike. Considering that he's shown more ability to walk in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if most projection systems showed a similar increases in walk rate.

10. jwb Posted: November 01, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#3000963)

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF?

Ross is very good in CF.

11. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 01, 2008 at 04:53 PM (#3000970)

Regardless of how much Jacobs was hurt by the park in Miami, Nunez doesn't look like he's going to have any trouble giving up HRs there.

12. Gaelan Posted: November 01, 2008 at 05:27 PM (#3000983)

Ross is very good in CF.

If by very good you mean as good as Beltran you are crazy. I haven't seen numbers from this year but in past years he has been signficantly below average which isn't surprising for a shorty, stocky guy who isn't that fast.

13. AROM Posted: November 01, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#3000984)

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF? Unless he is, moving him to 1B really cripples his value.

It doesn't make sense to move a CF to 1B (though it's been done before). Move him to left, then move Willingham to 1st.

14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#3000992)

It doesn't make sense to move a CF to 1B (though it's been done before). Move him to left, then move Willingham to 1st.

Didn't the Mets that moved Lee Mazzilli from CF to 1B, b/c "You've got to have a good hitter at 1B".

15. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 01, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#3001021)

Who cares about this? The people want analysis of the Fernando Tatis contract!

16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#3001033)

Dan, does ZiPS take intentional walks into account? Ten of Jacobs' 36 walks this year were intentional, so ZiPS is either predicting he'll be walked a bunch of times intentionally again or that his unintentional walk total will spike as much as 38% (10 more than 26).

Well, if he has guys like John Buck and Mark Teahen hitting behind him, he may actually increase his intentional walk total.

17. AROM Posted: November 01, 2008 at 07:58 PM (#3001048)

Didn't the Mets that moved Lee Mazzilli from CF to 1B, b/c "You've got to have a good hitter at 1B".

Oh it's been done. Like when the Angels had 4 good outfielders and moved Erstad to first instead of Anderson or Salmon. But it doesn't make sense.

18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 01, 2008 at 08:02 PM (#3001050)

Oh it's been done. Like when the Angels had 4 good outfielders and moved Erstad to first instead of Anderson or Salmon. But it doesn't make sense.

That was my initial point. A guy would have to be so bad in CF, it would be unlikely he'd ever have gotten there (instead or RF or LF) in the first place. Barring some sort of catastrophic injury that affects fielding but not hitting.

19. StillFlash Posted: November 03, 2008 at 08:02 AM (#3001483)

My projections for Jacobs (currently not park adjusted) are virtually identical to ZIPs, and don't include IBB - 264/310/490 340 wOBA. His HR% spiked in 2005, BB% and SO% virtually unchanged since he was 18. However, his BABIP has declined each of the last 4 years, and now projects below avg at 295. Partly he's been hitting more fly balls each year, but in 2008 he had career low BABIP on both flies and grounders.

Shealy is a carbon copy, with slightly more walks 263/333/461 344 wOBA.

I've got Kila at 247/347/442 346 wOBA, dreadfully low 261 BABIP. Kala actually projects better 258/356/480 363 wOBA

1998-2008 MLB 1b mean wOBA is 357

20. JPWF13

Posted: November 06, 2008 at 08:45 PM (#3004576)

Supposedly Jacobs hits a higher number of "no doubters" than average, so maybe the home runs won't be deflated that much at Kauffman.

He does, he absolutely crushes the ball, I saw him as a Met farmhand ion Binghamton, with the Mets, and several times with the Marlins- was absolutely mystified why he didn't hit more homers...

I think he has a lot of nagging injuries, he also has trouble making contact at times, and his BABIP cratered last year.

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Friday, October 31, 2008

Royals - Acquired Jacobs

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