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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Royals - Sign Farnsworth, Ramirez, Waechter

Kansas City Royals - Signed P Kyle Farnsworth to a 2-year, $9.5 million contract; signed P Horacio Ramirez to a 1-year, $1.8 million contract; signed P Doug Wachter


RANDOM SELECTIONS FROM EXHAUSTIVE LIST OF BETTER IDEAS THAN SIGNING FARNSWORTH AND RAMIREZ

 

Update

Heh, from Royals Review:

I want the stats, the analysis and the theory; I don’t want the lame attempts at comedy. Those who write at these sites do the first three well and the fourth exceedingly poorly. Dan may think he’s trying out for The Daily Show’s sports report, but he isn’t. He’s a one trick monkey. Dance monkey!

 

ZiPS Projection - Kyle Farnsworth
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     2   3 64   0   62   64   33 10 27 58 4.79   94
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Xavier Hernandez, Ricky Bottalico

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 6
Mid 1/3 35
Bot 1/3 59

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   2

<10 0
>

140   4

<14 0
>

130   7

<17 6
>

120   13

<21 26
>

110   23

<24 43
>

100   39

<28 60
>

90   57
>80   76     HR     %
>70   91     <5 2
<7 19
K % <9 41
>62   23     <11 61
>55   49
>48   79
>41   93

ZiPS Projection - Horacio Ramirez
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     2   3 46   0   49   57   26   4 16 20 4.78   94
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Joe Klink, Mike Magnante

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 3
Mid 1/3 36
Bot 1/3 61

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   1     <8 11
>140   2     <11 24
>130   4     <14 35
>120   9     <16 62
>110   20     <19 77
>100   37     <22 88
>90   60
>80   82     HR     %
>70   94     <4 44
<5 78
K % <7 90
>49   0     <9 95
>44   0
>38   0
>33   0


ZiPS Projection - Doug Waechter
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     3   3 52   0   64   74   35   8 19 32 4.92   91
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Wayne Granger, Clay Carroll

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 5
Mid 1/3 36
Bot 1/3 59

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   1     <11 6
>140   3     <14 19
>130   6     <18 54
>120   12     <21 67
>110   22     <25 79
>100   39     <28 90
>90   58
>80   78     HR     %
>70   94     <5 17
<7 41
K % <9 80
>64   0     <11 90
>57   0
>50   0
>43   6

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2008 at 10:43 PM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. tomdaddydollars Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:07 PM (#3026835)
Hell, going all-in with 2-7 off-suit is a better idea than signing Farnsworth and Ramirez.
   2. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#3026839)
Two years and $9.5 million to a guy who spent last year in the independent Atlantic League?

That seems completely and totally insane.

Giving that much money toKyle Farnsworth would just be ordinary-level stupid.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#3026840)
Oops, obviously meant Kyle.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#3026849)
I get all the rest, but what is #7?
   5. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#3026850)
Fine work as always, Dan.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:13 PM (#3026851)
And I can't bring myself to check, but did the Bisher one return any hits?
   7. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#3026856)
The thing that really kills you with Farnsworth, as any Cub or Yankee fan can tell you, is knowing that, if he comes into the game with two runners on base, even if there are two outs, it is a mortal lock that one of those two dudes is gonna score.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:22 PM (#3026861)
Wow.

Rarely does a reliever signing win my "dumbest signing of the offseason" but this will be hard to beat.

(Note, "dumbest" is not necessarily "worst" -- in fact it usually takes a Zito-type signing to pull off the double. "Dumbest" is usually some combination of:

this guy is obviously not very good
he's not young
he doesn't have potential
he doesn't have a good track record
he doesn't have a good clubhouse rep
he's not a fan favorite
who would offer him that many years much less that much money ... who were you bidding against?

This one ticks all those boxes with the added bonus that producing decent/good cheap relievers is about the only thing the Royals have been any good at the last few years.

Y'know, that whole "we can pay Manny $30 M or build 50 ballfields" thing was silly but, as Dan rightly points out, "we could pay Farnsworth 2/$10 M or we could donate it to the Blagojevich defense fund" is a tough choice.
   9. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:23 PM (#3026863)
The thing that really kills you with Farnsworth, as any Cub or Yankee fan can tell you, is knowing that, if he comes into the game with two runners on base, even if there are two outs, it is a mortal lock that one of those two dudes is gonna score.


Sure, but he finds a way to surprise you still. For example, is he going to walk a guy then give up a HR? Is he going to give up a HR first? Is it merely going to be a double off the wall? Or is he just going to walk a couple straight batters? You can't put a price on that entertainment.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:25 PM (#3026866)
And c'mon Dan, it's only got 77,000 miles on it.
   11. tclancy Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:27 PM (#3026870)
Hey, anyone hear that one rumor about Doug Wachter?
   12. Paul M Hates Krispy Kreme Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:27 PM (#3026871)
You can't put a price on that entertainment.

Sure you can. The Royals just did.
   13. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:27 PM (#3026872)
I get all the rest, but what is #7?


Baseball Stars for the SNES. The player is choosing to play as the SNK Crushers (the worst team in the game by a lot) to play against the computer, who is the American Dreams (the best team in the game). The Dreams have Koufax, Ruth, Mays, Bench, Gehrig, etc. The Crushers are made up of the game's programmers.
   14. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:29 PM (#3026879)
I'd rather have two years of Farnsworth at $9.5m than two of Nick Punto at $8.5m. At least with Farnworth, there's a possibility he could reel off 8 or 10 decent appearances right before the deadline and you could unload him.

Nick Punto, two years, $8.5 million? That's your dumbest deal of the offseason right there.
   15. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:29 PM (#3026880)
Dan....I just snorted/chuckled rather loudly here at the airport in Vegas....well done, especially with the Baseball Stars reference.

You just made me look stupid in front of some important baseball people...LOL
   16. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:29 PM (#3026882)
But it's suited!
   17. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: December 11, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#3026883)
he's not a fan favorite

You obviously don't know many Lincoln Park Trixies.
   18. Juan V Posted: December 12, 2008 at 12:20 AM (#3026928)
   19. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: December 12, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#3026941)
That was fantastic, Dan. I loved the Baseball Stars one, but I really liked all of them.
   20. DFA Posted: December 12, 2008 at 12:43 AM (#3026950)
Rarely does a reliever signing win my "dumbest signing of the offseason" but this will be hard to beat.

Signing Danys Baez to a 3 year $22M deal was pretty dumb, but you know, it was done by the Orioles.
   21. SuperGrover Posted: December 12, 2008 at 12:52 AM (#3026961)
Brilliant.
   22. Santanaland Diaries Posted: December 12, 2008 at 01:05 AM (#3026971)
Nick Punto, two years, $8.5 million? That's your dumbest deal of the offseason right there.


Hey, Nick Punto was actually decent in two out of the last three years. Granted, that third one's a doozy.
   23. Red Menace Posted: December 12, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#3026995)
Baseball Stars for the SNES.

Just the regular NES actually. Yes, I'm proud of myself right now.
   24. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 12, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#3027081)
The thing that really kills you with Farnsworth, as any Cub or Yankee fan can tell you, is knowing that, if he comes into the game with two runners on base, even if there are two outs, it is a mortal lock that one of those two dudes is gonna score.


Yes, BUT WHICH ONE?!?
   25. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2008 at 04:07 AM (#3027095)
You obviously don't know many Lincoln Park Trixies.

Well, I meant not (yet!) a fan favorite in KC. If the Tigers had re-signed him after all the love he engendered there, this would be much more understandable. :-)

Nick Punto, two years, $8.5 million? That's your dumbest deal of the offseason right there.

Yeah, well, I probably don't quite agree with you but I made my claim about Farnsworth before I'd even seen the Punto deal so I'm probably just trying to save myself from looking stupid. I'll go with "pint-sized Twins fans love that scrappy little feller" as justification (whether that's true or not).

The duo of signings might well be the dumbest day in baseball since the Zito contract. Oh I'm going to regret saying that.

Signing Danys Baez to a 3 year $22M deal was pretty dumb, but you know, it was done by the Orioles.

nolo contendre.

Though I do limit the award to signings by Major League teams. :-)
   26. Dan Evensen Posted: December 12, 2008 at 06:47 AM (#3027214)
Great post. I've done #s 5 and 7. At least Amezaga has a 1b fielding rating.
   27. WillYoung Posted: December 12, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#3027305)
Yeah, well, I probably don't quite agree with you but I made my claim about Farnsworth before I'd even seen the Punto deal so I'm probably just trying to save myself from looking stupid. I'll go with "pint-sized Twins fans love that scrappy little feller" as justification (whether that's true or not).

Um, we actually hate that little ####### piece of ####.
   28. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 12, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#3027329)
Man, what are the Tigers doing? They're making some weird moves.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2008 at 11:49 PM (#3027987)
Updated with projections now.
   30. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 12, 2008 at 11:59 PM (#3028005)
after seeing those numbers, Royals Review might want backsies on their jape.
   31. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:01 AM (#3028008)
I want the stats, the analysis and the theory; I don’t want the lame attempts at comedy. Those who write at these sites do the first three well and the fourth exceedingly poorly. Dan may think he’s trying out for The Daily Show’s sports report, but he isn’t. He’s a one trick monkey. Dance monkey!

So, their check is in the mail, right?
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:03 AM (#3028010)
<flings feces>
   33. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#3028012)
Stupid question:

If ZIPS projects Farnsworth to have 58K in 62IP, how does ODDIBE only find a 49% chance of >55K in that number of IP?
   34. Shibal Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#3028013)
I have no problems spending $4 million on someone to keep Jose Guillen in line.

Good job Allard.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#3028024)
Um, we actually hate that little ####### piece of ####.

Well, of course YOU do -- but you're a pencil-necked, pocket-protector-wearing geek who's never been out of his mom's basement. I'm sure the pint-sized tykes must love him. He's cute and cuddly, right? He's a shining example of a player who plays the game the right way, right? He saves a run a game with his glove, right? He's what every god-fearing, true American little boy should want to be when he grows up, right? You see many 8-year-olds roaming the Metrodome with Brendan Harris jerseys? Surely it's fair to say that Nick Punto is the opposite of Barry Bonds in almost every way imaginable. So what are you, some sort of Bonds lover?
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#3028036)

If ZIPS projects Farnsworth to have 58K in 62IP, how does ODDIBE only find a 49% chance of >55K in that number of IP?


Skewness risk.
   37. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 13, 2008 at 12:27 AM (#3028053)
awesome Dan, thanks for the laugh.
   38. Thermos Posted: December 13, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#3028334)
Fantastic, Dan!
   39. denDekker, Mattsui (jemile weeks) Posted: December 13, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#3028353)
Tigers vs Royals:
Playing a game of chicken for last place in the central. Nobody seems to be blinking.
   40. Lassus Posted: December 13, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#3028427)
Isn't that the hand Bond got the royal flush with in Casino Royale?

Even so, completely awesome, Dan, thanks.
   41. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: December 14, 2008 at 01:46 AM (#3028534)
You'd have to cross 007 with God of Gamblers to make a royal flush with a 4 and a 6 - suited or no.
   42. MM1f Posted: December 14, 2008 at 02:01 AM (#3028537)
The Bisher thing is just stupid, and bullshit.

The guy has been a great columnist and a great guy for years. Yeah, hes written some silly stuff in his later days... but how on earth does that get him associated with fetish porn. Wtf? It makes no sense, and isn't funny at all. Plus, if any columnist is going to be unfairly lumped in with "fetish porn" Bisher isn't even close to being the most deserving of that crap.
   43.   Posted: December 14, 2008 at 02:05 AM (#3028539)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/goodidea2.JPG

I don't see the problem here.
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2008 at 02:28 AM (#3028548)
The guy has been a great columnist and a great guy for years. Yeah, hes written some silly stuff in his later days...

That's good ol' fashioned family racism!
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#3028553)
Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, "When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?"
   46. fret Posted: December 14, 2008 at 05:54 AM (#3028579)
At least Amezaga has a 1b fielding rating.

Plus they have the platoon advantage against Pedroia!
   47. Lassus Posted: December 14, 2008 at 08:26 AM (#3028596)
Well, obviously I meant straight flush. Dur.
   48. PreservedFish Posted: December 14, 2008 at 09:34 AM (#3028603)
I could take the American Dreams with the Crushers.
   49. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 15, 2008 at 04:32 AM (#3028941)
Well, obviously I meant straight flush. Dur.
Just think--without the correction you would have won an all-expenses paid trip to my next table stakes poker game!!
   50. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 15, 2008 at 04:50 AM (#3028948)
You'd have to cross 007 with God of Gamblers to make a royal flush with a 4 and a 6 - suited or no.

I actually have played a hand where the board showed a royal flush. I guess I'm a seriously bad man.
   51. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 15, 2008 at 09:50 AM (#3029014)
I actually have played a hand where the board showed a royal flush. I guess I'm a seriously bad man.
Sir, I actually played a hand where the board showed four of a kind with an Ace kicker. There were four of us left. One guy threw in his hand disgustedly and said, "I can't beat that". We quietly split the pot. Three ways. About a month later some wag broke it to him, and not gently.
   52. Jeff K. Posted: December 15, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#3029032)
How the hell were four of you still in with that kind of board? The only possible way I can see it is if it came (X is whatever ended up being 4 of a kind) XXA flop, and whomever raised/called preflop had done so with pocket pairs and aces, and whichever one bet out made a small stab at it. Everyone calls, checks all around on the turn (which has to come X), though the last guy can't have an A, he has to be a PP person, because there's no way he can check if everyone just called on the flop and then checked to him on the turn and he has an ace. He's got X full of Aces, and that's basically a lock to be the nuts.
   53. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 16, 2008 at 03:42 AM (#3030052)
How the hell were four of you still in with that kind of board?
Chivas, cigars, and those heady, distant, hedge fund days.
   54. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2008 at 04:08 AM (#3030096)
How the hell were four of you still in with that kind of board?


or everyone could have limped-in/checked, and then they checked it down with everyone fearing the others were slowplaying. Then after the river, I assume the first person would bet big and hope some numbnuts folds before they realize what is going on.
   55. Shoeless_Mike Posted: December 16, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#3030644)
This should have been included as item #8:

Royals Acquire Jacobs From Marlins

Kansas City, MO -- (Sports Network) - The Kansas City Royals have acquired first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins in exchange for pitcher Leo Nunez.

Jacobs, who turned 28 years old on Thursday, belted a career-high 32 homers and drove in 93 runs with a .247 batting average in 2008. He is a career .262 hitter with 80 homers and 247 RBI in 421 big league games with Florida and the New York Mets.

"We're delighted to acquire a productive hitter to impact the middle of our lineup," said Royals general manager Dayton Moore. "Mike's a winner and has a very aggressive approach to baseball and we look forward to his presence on our club."
   56. Danny Posted: April 07, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3128534)
Ha.

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