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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Royals - Signed Guillen

Kansas City Royals - Signed OF Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36 million contract.

As reported, Guillen will miss the first couple weeks of the season due to an agreed-upon suspension.  I’ve liked most of what Dayton Moore’s done in KC.  This, less so.  It’s not awful, but Guillen’s never been a defensive whiz, he’ll be 32 in May (a Dominican 32, to boot) and he seems to be a royal pain in the ass, to the point at which even statheads have to consider the tangibles that his intangibles may cause in team construction.  If the Royals are determined to overpay, I think they’d be better off drastically overpaying for a durable starting pitcher.  This move essentially moves sends to 1B, where it’ll be even harder for him to be a plus and where the Royals could probably patch together some reasonable, if not impressive, production anyway.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jose Guillen
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   500 73 135 25 1 19 79 33 91   2 .269 .335 .438
2009*      444 66 122 24 1 17 75 28 84   1 .275 .337 .448
2010*      437 57 116 19 1 17 68 29 95   0 .265 .331 .440
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  577 96 166 36 2 24 95 43 90   4 .288 .359 .482
Pes. (15%)  444 52 107 20 0 11 51 21 84   0 .241 .286 .360
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Brian Jordan, Hubie Brooks

* Post-2008 seasons are extremely speculative!

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2007 at 07:55 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Harvey Berkman Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:26 PM (#2639516)
sends who to 1B?
   2. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2639519)
Teahen.

-- MWE
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:28 PM (#2639524)
Who's on 1st? Who's on 1st? [/Rainman]
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:28 PM (#2639525)
Dan doesn't hate this nearly as much as I hoped -- seems like a missed opportunity for some classic Szym.

It's early yet, but I think this is the current leader for "most inexplicable signing" (not to be confused with "worst signing").
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:30 PM (#2639527)
Btw, Dan, where's my Quentin-for-Carter trade analysis? Geez. It happened last year.
   6. Tony B Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2639555)
Guillen replaces Brown/Gathright in LF. I think Teahen stays in RF, for now.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2639577)
Guillen replaces Brown/Gathright in LF. I think Teahen stays in RF, for now.

I'm under the impression that they're going to give Gathright a shot - it depends on whether they trade DeJesus, I'd imagine.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2639582)
"I think this is the current leader for 'most inexplicable signing'"

I still kind of like Matsui there, unless "Ed Wade is an idiot" counts as an adequate explanation.
   9. Darren Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:46 PM (#2639586)
It's not awful, but Guillen's never been a defensive whiz, he'll be 32 in May (a Dominican 32, to boot) and he seems to be a royal pain in the ass, to the point at which even statheads have to consider the tangibles that his intangibles may cause in team construction.


I thought that Guillen was rated pretty highly by UZR in the past.

Whatever, compare this signing with the Milton Bradley's and it looks awful(er).
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2639601)
Teahen or DeJesus will certainly be traded, IMO.

I thought Guillen was a pretty good clubhouse guy in Seattle? I know he was a dick in Anaheim, but I was under the impression that he's matured lately and was a pretty good leader now.

"I think this is the current leader for 'most inexplicable signing'"

Really? The team slugged .388 last year. .388!! Kaz Matsui outslugged that! Guillen, will most likely help improve on that. The Royals certainly overpaid, but they're in a position where they can afford to overpay, and frankly they have to overpay as they're not the most attractive destination for free agents.
   11. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2639621)
When Adam Jones was finally called up last season, Guillen was very vocal in his displeasure. If the Royals have a poor season, I think there are going to be problems.
   12. Tony B Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2639677)
In that case, we should expect a tantrum on opening day. 12 out the last 13 seasons have been poor.
   13. The District Attorney Posted: December 10, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2639701)
The team slugged .388 last year. .388!!
So they needed to spend $12 million a year on a corner outfielder projected to slug .438? Does that really help all that much?

This isn't quite a disaster, but I think it's very pointless.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2639714)
So they needed to spend $12 million a year on a corner outfielder projected to slug .438? Does that really help all that much?

Yes, it does. Their left-fielder last season slugged .347. The upgrade to Guillen would be huge.

The money doesn't bother me at all. Had it been more than a three year deal, that would have bothered me. The Royals can't afford to put players out there who can't hit and are making gobs of money, like Sweeney has been doing the last few years. There's certainly still that risk with Guillen, but a three year deal seems pretty reasonable.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:24 AM (#2639824)
I still kind of like Matsui there,

Hmmm... had forgotten about that one. Will have to take under consideration.

Kaz Matsui outslugged that!

Yeah, but that's Coors-inflated. :-)

The Royals can't afford to put players out there who can't hit and are making gobs of money, like Sweeney has been doing the last few years.

Alas, sounds exactly like Guillen 32-34 to me.

Y'know, only the last two years of Sweeney were worse than Guillen's best years by OPS+. Even his 2006 OPS was better than Guillen's projections for any of those years. Roughly speaking, those projected OPSs for Guillen are about a 100 OPS+ -- it's an ugly projection.

Now that ugly projection might be overly-influenced by his awful 2006, but Guillen looks like a better-fielding, maybe healthier and (inflation-adjusted) slightly cheaper version of Sweeney 2006. And any improvement from last year's travesty to Guillen will get erased if they ship out DeJesus or Teahen.

I really dislike this signing ... but it's likely not long enough or expensive enough to qualify as the worst. I make Torii Hunter the clubhouse leader for that one unless I've forgotten someone.
   16. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:30 PM (#2640089)
I thought Guillen was a pretty good clubhouse guy in Seattle? I know he was a dick in Anaheim, but I was under the impression that he's matured lately and was a pretty good leader now.


That's the impression he gives every time he shows up on a new team. As an Angel fan, I was warned by the A's fans that he was a hot-headed jerk but I bought into Guillen's hype that all that stuff was overblown, a change of scenery would be good, he was mature now, etc. Don't believe the hype. The guy will probably give you 28 HRs and some decent production, but the guy's an ass.
   17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2007 at 04:36 AM (#2646232)
Y'know, only the last two years of Sweeney were worse than Guillen's best years by OPS+. Even his 2006 OPS was better than Guillen's projections for any of those years. Roughly speaking, those projected OPSs for Guillen are about a 100 OPS+ -- it's an ugly projection.

Yea, but those two years cost the Royals $22 million for just 134 games combined of 102 and 86 OPS+ respectively. I guess I doubt Guillen will be quite that awful.

The guy will probably give you 28 HRs and some decent production, but the guy's an ass.

Between this and the Callaspo trade, Dayton seems to have completely abandoned his previous commitment to evaluating "character" in making transactions.
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 15, 2007 at 04:38 AM (#2646233)
I guess I doubt Guillen will be quite that awful.

At the risk of quoting myself, I realize that Sweeney should not be the standard, but if Guillen is healthy and puts up an OPS+ between 100-110, that will probably be a huge boost for this club, sad as that is. He has put up an OPS+ of 115 four of the last five seasons.
   19. Master Shake Posted: December 16, 2007 at 09:30 AM (#2647174)
1. The Kevin Mitchell Report Posted: December 09, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2639516)
sends who to 1B?
2. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2639519)
Teahen.

-- MWE


No. If he's playing for the Royals in 08 (which he probably will be), Teahen will play LF. Butler will get the shot at 1B (Gload is still in the mix with Shealy and Huber), Brown is gone, and either Gathright/Dejesus get picked for CF. Dayton will not move Teahen to 1B.

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