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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Royals - Signed Meche, Acquired Bannister

Kansas City Royals - Signed P Gil Meche to a 5-year contract; acquired P Brian Bannister from the New York Mets for P Ambiorix Burgos.

The Meche signing is being reported as between $55 and $60 million.  That is a lot of money.  On the plus side, the Royals are absolutely desperate for starting pitchers, and by not dividing the money up among mediocre free agents, they’ll be fiscally unable to block some of their better young prospects.  Starving the beast never works for government, unfortunately, but Moore seems like he’s got some brains in that skull.  Still, $11-$12 million a year for Gil Meche?  I’m simply out of ways to say “sort of useful player, way overvalued.”

Burgos-for-Bannister is more likely than not a nothing trade.  The Royals are simply taking a flier on a guy who might help the rotation one day, a definite need, while the Mets are talented enough that they can afford to stash a guy who has bullpen upside.  One thing that still bugs me - why have there been 5 hispanic professional baseball players named Ambiorix born in the late 70s-mid 80s?  Was there a Schoolhouse Rock featuring the History of the Belgic Gauls that I missed?

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bannister     4   7 17 16   94 108   61 14 35 52 5.84
Burgos       4   5 69   0   74   67   38 13 38 81 4.62

2007 ZiPS Projection -  Gil Meche
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 8 10 30 29 167 171   91 24 75 125 4.90
2008     8 10 29 28 162 168   89 23 73 118 4.94    
2009     8 10 28 27 158 165   89 22 72 110 5.07
2010     7 10 28 27 156 165   89 23 70 106 5.13
2011     6 10 26 25 146 157   85 22 64 94 5.24
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 11   9 33 32 190 179   83 21 74 146 3.93
Pes. (15%)  5 10 25 24 135 147   68 24 71 99 5.87
———————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:33 PM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2254656)
Just eyeballing things, that Meche looks pessimistic to me.
   2. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2254661)
No entry for the Garcia trade? No love for the Phils Dan?

Bah on Garcia. I want to see a Piazza zips, and an Embree and Goleski, too!

--Chad

Oh yeah, Meche is just not good.
   3. Sexy Lizard Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:16 PM (#2254665)
One thing that still bugs me - why have there been 5 hispanic professional baseball players named Ambiorix born in the late 70s-mid 80s? Was there a Schoolhouse Rock featuring the History of the Belgic Gauls that I missed?

Classical names for children had a vogue in Spain in the 17th century, when the Spaniards were fancying themselves as the great defenders of European civilization. And then the Spanish colonizers of places like the Dominican Republic began habitually gave classical and semi-classical names to their slaves (slave owners everywhere did this; see the endless Catos in the Antebellum South). After emancipation and independence some of the less obvious of these survived as family names, hence the occasional middle infielder named Adsrubal.
   4. standuptriple Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#2254666)
At least he's in the right place.
   5. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#2254672)
So that's $1,527,777.78 per win by Meche for the next five years?
   6. canonical paths Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:27 PM (#2254680)
lgERA for Royals pitchers last year was around 4.84, so the first year projection is in line with Meche's career ERA+ of 96.
   7. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2254688)
The Ambiorixes (Ambiorices?) aren't just all hispanic, they're all Dominican; so it's probably local to that side of Hispanola. I've no idea why, of course.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:40 PM (#2254693)
At least he'll be consistent in the loss column.
   9. MSI Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#2254740)
The Royals are going to be a decent team next year. They have something that looks like a rotation and bullpen, and their hitting is not bad also. Meche will help them surge to 70+ wins. The Mariners will suck though.
   10. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:40 PM (#2254761)
AG's#1F, was "Gil 'Ga' Meche" your own term? Because that may be the cleverest Chris Berman name I've ever heard. It might even be... epic. (My best Stewie Griffin voice) Yes, yes, that's right, you're all ripe for parody.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:45 PM (#2254768)
AG's#1F, was "Gil 'Ga' Meche" your own term?

I'm not that clever. I think Rob Neyer wrote it in a column a long time ago.
   12. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:55 PM (#2254779)
I think Ambiorix and Asdrubal are two of the coolest names on the planet. Ambiorix Concepcion is probably my favorite name of all-time.
   13. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#2254780)
Total Royals gains:
--Brian Bannister
--Gil Meche
--Joakim Soria

Total Royals losses:
--Runelvys Hernandez (Addition by subtraction?)
--Ambiorix Burgos
--$11-12 million/year for the next half-decade

With the exception of money (and who needs that when you're the Royals?), I think I like Dayton Moore's work for today. Of course, I still haven't had the time to look into numbers and reports and stuff, but the superficial stuff looks nice.

Also, Buck O'Neil (And Riley B. King!) will be awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Dec. 15.
   14. DL from MN Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2254786)
> Meche will help them surge to 70+ wins.

They must be taking them from the White Sox because I don't see a slide from the Tigers, Twins or Indians.
   15. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2254787)
Anybody got an explanation for the name Runelvys?
   16. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 08, 2006 at 12:18 AM (#2254804)
I would decline that honor if it were offered to me by this administration. Of course, not if they waited till I was dead to give it to me...
   17. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#2254809)
"Sorry, I really didn't do much for freedom anyways"
   18. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 08, 2006 at 12:29 AM (#2254816)
OK, then where to the Russian names (Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez) come from?
   19. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 12:44 AM (#2254831)
Fondness towards Russians, maybe?
   20. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 08, 2006 at 12:55 AM (#2254839)
I can't fathom a scenario under which this is any better for the Royals than was Pat Meares for the Pirates.

Or, to be on team, Danny Tartabull? Mark Davis?

Meche could have been a smart under the radar acquisition a lot of years with Carpenter upside at a discount price. Ohka this year alone looks like one like that. You try a few of those, and maybe you strike it rich. Likely you don't. What you don't do is pay them as if they've already come up bigtime with little provocation, especially on a team with a fixed income.

Where did I read that this was like a family on social assitance buying a plasma TV that doesn't work? That might have been BP. I just keep picturing Joy and Darnell watching TV outside as bikers drive through their "living room." Mercy!
   21. MSI Posted: December 08, 2006 at 01:27 AM (#2254883)
The Royals will be a good team. Alex Gordon is coming up, and perhaps another prospect or two. Shealy and Teahan will be solid, and Mike Sweeney, Emil Brown and Angel Berroa will surprise us all. THere rotation looks like sort of real now: Meche, (Hochevar?), Odalis Perez, maybe Greinke, Bannister, Elarton...and they have GObble, and a few other decent bullpen arms. Your right, more wins will come from the Indians this year, so the Twins, and White Sox mainly in the same division will lose some. I see big losses from the A's, and Mariners (just lost Meche and Soriano...).
   22. Honkie Kong Posted: December 08, 2006 at 01:44 AM (#2254912)
Why is everyone down on this deal? Its too many years for too much money, granted. But they need someone to take the ball every fifth day!
what good is it to have Gordon and Butler coming up if they are throwing knuckleballs by the 8th inning?

This is not tying their hands up, and who knows, they might even be able to trade him in 2-3 yrs..
Their job is to find arms, so they don't have another Burgos like situation in the near future.
   23. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 08, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2254974)
My initial reaction to the deal was the usual slack-jawed incredulity. But, this isn't the Angels thinking Meche is the solution to a problem which will get them a pennant. For the Royals, I don't think this is terrible, for the reasons some have stated. It's not a case of the Royals paying $11M a year to a guy when some dude in their system could be projected to put up similar numbers for $350K.

This is the equivalent of the Red Sox signing Pedro Martinex for the Royals.
   24. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 08, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2254975)
The last sentence there really sucks, but you know what I mean.
   25. asinwreck Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:21 AM (#2254994)
OK, then where to the Russian names (Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez) come from?


Soviet aid to poor Latin American nations during the 1970s.
   26. Robinson Cano Plate Like Home Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:45 AM (#2255023)
It's really tempting karma to give Meche the exact same contract as Darren Dreifort.
   27. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:55 AM (#2255030)
OK, then where to the Russian names (Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez) come from?



Soviet aid to poor Latin American nations during the 1970s.


I think I read that there were a lot of Soviet medical doctors who practiced in Latin America around this time & children were named after specific Russians who provided aid to destitute families.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2255055)
"I can't fathom a scenario under which this is any better for the Royals than was Pat Meares for the Pirates."

Maybe the one where Meche starts out as an above-average player, unlike Meares? Or the one where Meche hasn't already suffered a career-ending injury before signing his big deal, unlike Meares?
   29. David C. Jones Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:26 AM (#2255176)
Meche is above average? This is the dumbest signing of the year, so far.
   30. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:27 AM (#2255177)
[...]and Mike Sweeney, Emil Brown and Angel Berroa will surprise us all.

Sweeney will stay healthy, Brown will stay consistent, and Berroa will stay?

This is not tying their hands up, and who knows, they might even be able to trade him in 2-3 yrs..

Perhaps they can trade him away, but this has the potential to absolutely explode on them. Perhaps I'm still feeling just too burned by the Berroa (and Sweeney, sort of) signing(s), but this guy is going to immediately be paid more than Mike Sweeney, a team leader and city landmark, who was the runner-up batting champion the year he signed his deal. He cannot flop or this deal becomes a very painful ball and chain -- the type of contract a small-market team can't really afford to just eat.

Undoubtedly I'm overreacting a bit, but the length and depth of this deal really scares me.

This is the equivalent of the Red Sox signing Pedro Martinex for the Royals.

Except that if the Pedro deal became a bomb, it would certainly hurt, but they could eat the deal and move on. KC has an incredibly small margin for error. If this thing explodes, there's a pretty big financial burden on a small market team who would, in theory, be making a run for the playoffs.
   31. Cris E Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:31 AM (#2255187)
It's really tempting karma to give Meche the exact same contract as Darren Dreifort.

Well with inflation maybe Meche will become as good as Dreifort.



I can't fathom a scenario under which this is any better for the Royals than was Pat Meares for the Pirates.

I think Meche can play SS better than Mears can pitch, so with PIT being an NL town and the DH not taking up a spot the additional flexibilty afforded by having Meares on the DL at all times would be an advantage. For one of them. I think...
   32. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:33 AM (#2255191)
the cleverest Chris Berman name I've ever heard.

Chris "It's a Long Way to Beat" Terreri is far and away the best.
   33. Boots Day Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:36 AM (#2255196)
AG's#1F, was "Gil 'Ga' Meche" your own term?

I'm not that clever. I think Rob Neyer wrote it in a column a long time ago.


Philip Roth wrote it in a book an even longer time ago. "Gil Gamesh" was the star pitcher in "The Great American Novel," and if I remember the ending correctly, once was in the process of throwing a perfect game consisting of 27 strikeouts on 81 pitches when the 81st pitch killed the umpire. I could be wrong, though.
   34. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:40 AM (#2255201)
I think I read that there were a lot of Soviet medical doctors who practiced in Latin America around this time & children were named after specific Russians who provided aid to destitute families.


Which is a diplomatic way of saying "the mothers named the kids after their real fathers"
   35. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:47 AM (#2255206)
How come no one is talking about the Dotel signing?
   36. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:49 AM (#2255210)
Days like this happen when David Glass gets all doped up and Dayton Moore gets ahold of the checkbook.
   37. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:51 AM (#2255216)
JP buries Meche:

"No knock against the kid, but we might've dodged a bullet there," said Jays, general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who headed home from the winter meetings this morning after striking out on both of the team's major , if not only , free-agent targets.

"When you're talking to a guy about coming to a place that's very close to winning and he's telling you how important it is to him , and then he chooses a place like that .... that might've been an eye-opener for us. We're trying to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, so we need guys who want to compete against those guys."


Hey JP, maybe Meche just wanted to play in a stadium that isn't a crappy dome.
   38. HowardMegdal Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:55 AM (#2255219)
"Philip Roth wrote it in a book"

I'm so tired of Roth stealing from Chris Berman, like the time the young Berman violated his own family's dinner.
   39. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:57 AM (#2255220)
I don't particularly like JP. He seems awfully whiny all the time.
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:35 AM (#2255256)
"This is the dumbest signing of the year, so far."

Worse than Juan Pierre?

Hyperbolize much?
   41. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:37 AM (#2255259)
JP Ricciardi is a big league doofus. If I were Meche or Moore, I would give him the same offer that Ron Artest gave Ben Wallace.

Too bad you got hit between the eyes with the A.J. Burnett bullet, you sorry sack of crap.
   42. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:44 AM (#2255264)
If I were Meche or Moore, I would give him the same offer that Ron Artest gave Ben Wallace.

Could someone explain this to me? I know they were involved in the "Malice at the Palace" incident but don't get that.
   43. Urban Faber Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:26 AM (#2255285)
I must be the only one who sees "Royals - Acquired Bannister" and has flashbacks to Melido Perez.
   44. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:32 AM (#2255288)
Allow me.

Artest told Wallace he could blank his blank. It's not what you think, though. Take what you are thinking and insert lick in the first spot. In the second part, insert balls..
   45. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:34 AM (#2255289)
I'd rather have Burnett than Meche.

but yeah, JP does blow.


Having never read Phillip Roth I may be out of whack on thsi; but it's funny how often you hear how great he is, then someone tells you the plot to one f his books and you wither think "wow that sounds stupid", or it sounds like an elaborate, bad joke that old people with no sense of humor find funny.
   46. PJ Martinez Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:53 AM (#2255298)
"Chris 'It's a Long Way to Beat' Terreri is far and away the best."

I don't get it.
   47. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:05 AM (#2255303)
Me neither. Kind of curious because I was a big fan.

Of Terreri's, not Berman's.
   48. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:06 AM (#2255304)
It's not what you think, though.

How did you know I thought Artest told Wallace that he could accept his apology?
   49. Raoul Duke Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:13 AM (#2255306)
If Gil Meche is getting this kind of money, I'm learning a knuckler and heading for a try-out.

God, he's never been healthy nor impressive. Drayton Moore and Xanax=Gil Meche's new contract.

And don't try jedi-sabr mindtricks on me; this guy is a burger . . .
   50. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:19 AM (#2255311)
Too bad you got hit between the eyes with the A.J. Burnett bullet, you sorry sack of crap.

Burnett got the same deal as Meche, just a year earlier. The last 3 years, he's averaged 155 innings per season with an ERA+ of 112 or better.

Meche is barely projected to beat those IP numbers and his ERA is not projected to be better than league average in any season of this contract. To put it another way, Meche has probably never had a season as good as Burnett's 2006, despite the fact the latter was injured for much of the year.

Maybe JP overpaid a bit for Burnett, but at least he got a player with significant upside and moderate value even on the downside.

Having never read Phillip Roth I may be out of whack on thsi; but it's funny how often you hear how great he is, then someone tells you the plot to one f his books and you wither think "wow that sounds stupid", or it sounds like an elaborate, bad joke that old people with no sense of humor find funny.

The plot of American Pastoral was neither stupid nor particularly remarkable, but (IMO) the characters were great and the book was really well written. Operation Shylock was pretty much as you describe.

"Chris 'It's a Long Way to Beat' Terreri is far and away the best."

I don't get it.

Me neither.
   51. bibigon Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:39 AM (#2255315)
Which is a diplomatic way of saying "the mothers named the kids after their real fathers"


Vladimir Guerrero is Russian?
   52. Xander Posted: December 08, 2006 at 08:46 AM (#2255319)
Wow. Ricciardi's a Grade-A ass. That's embarrassing.
   53. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 08, 2006 at 11:54 AM (#2255331)
JP's deals for Ryan and Burnett look like bargains and foresight now.
   54. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2255423)
There's an old song called "It's a Long Way to Tipperary". (My dad liked to mutate it into "That's the wrong way to tip your rary".) And Chris Terreri was a goaltender, so I guess Berman had to add the "beat" in there to round it out.

One that I'm surprised Berman never came up is Amani "It's Not a" Toomer, which lets you do your Bad Schwarzenegger Impression.
   55. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 08, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2255431)
Philip Roth is the best people. Operation Shylock, American Pastoral, My Life as A Man etc etc are all great books. Counterlife might be my favorite. The Great American Novel is excellent, too, if you like baseball. Non-baseball fans seem to hate it, though, but I think they don't get most of the humor in it.
   56. Boots Day Posted: December 08, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2255456)
The plot of American Pastoral was neither stupid nor particularly remarkable, but (IMO) the characters were great and the book was really well written.

If by plot, you mean the background story of American Pastoral -- basically, it's about how a Jewish business owner makes it big into goyim society, only to see his daughter turn into a terrorist -- I thought it was kind of brilliant as a way of portraying how America developed throughout the 20th century only to run headfirst into the 1960s.

On the other hand, you don't read Philip Roth for the plots, really. This is not John Grisham we're talking about.
   57. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 09, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#2255975)
If by plot, you mean the background story of American Pastoral -- basically, it's about how a Jewish business owner makes it big into goyim society, only to see his daughter turn into a terrorist -- I thought it was kind of brilliant as a way of portraying how America developed throughout the 20th century only to run headfirst into the 1960s.

Yeah, I guess I didn't phrase it properly. I didn't think the plot was that remarkable in an "I really care what happens next" kind of way. It wasn't a page turner for me, but when I was done I was definitely glad I had read it.
   58. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 09, 2006 at 02:01 AM (#2256015)
Meche's 5 most similar pitchers through age 27 include Jason Schmidt and Chris Carpenter. Just something to think about.
   59. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: December 10, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2256672)
Meche's 5 most similar pitchers through age 27 include Jason Schmidt and Chris Carpenter. Just something to think about.


It tells me that the Kansas City Royals are on their way to a World Series ring in approximately five years, lead by the dominant pitching of Gil Meche, a clutch start by the recently exiled Jared Weaver, and Alex Gordon getting screwed out of winning his second consecutive MVP by late bloomer Dallas Mcpherson.
   60. Raskolnikov Posted: December 10, 2006 at 01:24 AM (#2256676)
I've heard a lot about Philip Roth, who's garnered quite a reputation amongst the critics. I like Haruki Murakami a lot more.
   61. Urban Faber Posted: December 10, 2006 at 02:02 AM (#2256701)
It tells me that the Kansas City Royals are on their way to a World Series ring in approximately five years, lead by the dominant pitching of Gil Meche, a clutch start by the recently exiled Jared Weaver, and Alex Gordon getting screwed out of winning his second consecutive MVP by late bloomer Dallas Mcpherson.

But manager Whitey Herzog will get all the credit.
   62. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 10, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2256704)
I think that the Royals will make the playoffs before the Jays. Suck on that JP.

"I like Haruki Murakami a lot more."

I was into A Wild Sheep Chase. Very cool stuff. Haven't read anything else he's written.

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