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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Rule 5 Madness!

Well, the title of this entry is considerably more exciting than this year’s draft turned out to be.  In the Major League portion of the draft, several teams used the draft to pilfer other free agents signed to minor-league contracts.  The Royals lose both Etherton and Victor Santos almost as quickly as they signed them, which is unfortunate as both could have been useful to the team.  Etherton and Booker both go into pretty nice situations - they’re extreme flyballers that now play in big outfields with good defensive players.  Curveball God and BTF Fave Andrade gets a shot at a major league job, too.

Fabio Castro is the biggest name of the rest of the group - a young reliever with a decent fastball, curve, and sinker, and small enough that David Eckstein could probably beat him up.  Jumping a lot of levels in the minors is hard, though.  The Rockies pick up another Luis Gonzalez in the Rule 5, but this one isn’t ready and will get killed when he can find the plate.

The Marlins take Mike Megrew and Dan Uggla.  Megrew isn’t an elite pitching prospect, but he had a lot of success in the Florida State League.  He doesn’t have the big fastball you’d expect from a guy his size and missed most of the year with shoulder problems, so it’s clear why the Dodgers didn’t protect him.  The Marlins simply have an unbelievable amount of arms now - they’re going to have an All-Star rotation in 3 years just by brute force.  Uggla could fall into a job on the team solely due to the fact that the Marlins don’t have much infield depth.  Uggla’s quite mediocre defensively at 2nd and 3rd - his upside is probably the New Mark Lewis.

Jamie Vermilyea has no chance to go north with the Sox in April, but with the Jays’ 40-man roster as tight unless they start clearing out some 1B/3B guys, the Sox will probably keep him and send him to Pawtucket.

2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Andrade     3   3 39   0   51   44   24   6 22 50 4.24
Booker       4   5 52   0   60   50   30   6 35 69 4.50
Castro       3   6 50   0   72   77   44   9 38 53 5.50
Etherton     8   8 25 25 138 134   65 17 41 113 4.24
Gonzalez     1   7 49   0   66   76   60 16 61 45 8.18
Mateo       7   5 38 12 109 109   51 13 30 84 4.21
Megrew       5   7 20 20 103 101   54 10 48 85 4.72
Santos       7 11 30 26 146 149   77 16 60 95 4.75
Vermilyea     4   4 38   8   96 110   53 12 26 53 4.97
Wylie       3   4 22   7   62   62   30   7 20 45 4.35

 

2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Pridie     385 70   85 17 4 12 46 19 92 11 .221 .265 .379
Uggla     463 62 107 24 2 11 55 37 112 12 .231 .302 .363

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:57 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:40 PM (#1767784)
I'm not surprised that no one took Brownlie or Sing, but I am surprised that the Cardinals of all people took Mateo, who has never seen AA ball. That said, I wouldn't mind that ZiPS projection filling out the back end of my bullpen.
   2. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:43 PM (#1767798)
Andrade could be on his way to San Diego.
   3. Danny Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:47 PM (#1767810)
A's lost Alexi Ogando in the minor league portion. Anyone know his visa status?
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:50 PM (#1767822)
All of the rule 5 pick up, from ba

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/051208rule5.html

Also,

Royals acquired infielder Esteban German from the Rangers for LHP Fabio Castro, the first pick in the Rule 5 draft.
We like it. Royals GM Allard Baird had made it clear there was no one he really wanted with his pick. German immediately becomes the Royals' top candidate to start at second base next season. The former A's prospect hit .313/.400/.423 with 43 SB for Triple-A Oklahoma last season. That speed could make him quite valuable in AL-only leagues. Dec. 8 - 12:27 pm et

AZ lost Uggla, and Jeff Cook, OF, to Pitt and Josh Perrault, rhp, to WAS in the AAA phase. I'd never heard of the pitcher. Cook never had a future in AZ, with the Dbacks having top OF prospects coming out of their years.

Ball wasn't taken, neither were Murphy and Chico. AZ dodged a few.
   5. stealfirstbase Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:52 PM (#1767830)
Shoot. The White Sox had 4 good lefties in the lower minors, ranked in order of awesomeness:

Gio Gonzalez
Ray Liotta
Casey Daigwood
Fabio Castro


And now they have one. Brilliant!
   6. Sweet Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:56 PM (#1767845)
I wouldn't mind that ZiPS projection filling out the back end of my bullpen.

Seriously. ZIPS loves Mateo. Let's hope the Cardinals don't.
   7. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:01 PM (#1767870)
Daniel Haigwood?
Casey Daigle is a righty and different guy altogether ;).
   8. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:05 PM (#1767883)
In the AAA phase of the draft, the Red Sox picked up a 2b. I assume he has to stay at AAA all season or be offered back. What does this mean for Pedroia? Does Pedroia shift to SS at AAA or Boston?
   9. Greg Schuler Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1767941)
A player selected in the minor league phases (AAA and AA) are the property of the selecting club. They do not have to be offered back and are not required to play at a particular level.
   10. stealfirstbase Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:20 PM (#1767944)
Daniel Haigwood?
Casey Daigle is a righty and different guy altogether ;).


picky, picky. Look, I don't get paid for analysis, and...


but that is pretty funny, now that I read it again. It's like I just split their names at a random point and joined them right together. I remember that for a time I thought Haigwood's name was Daniel Haiglewood.

It reminds me of the time I was writing a paper at 3, 4 in the morning. I forget what it was on--either Wuthering Heights or MacBeth, since I was in two different English classes at the time. My sleep addled brain actually combined elements from the two works I was reading...and this was a paper I turned in. My professor's comments were hilarious. For the first two paragraphs everything went along fine, and then Heathcliff killed the king, and visited the witches and everything fell apart.

good thing that wasn't a major paper. It actually had a thesis and a conclusion, and supporting evidence from two randomly different works. I'd switch character names, place names, etc. I think I still have it, somewhere. The comic value was just too high to let it go...

Kind of like how the value of those 4 White Sox lefties was too high to split them up. Pitchers don't grow on trees, KW! Where do you think this is, Atlanta? I can't even write OR pitch left handed and I know that losing 3 of these 4 guys is bad policy. I hope Ray Liotta goes on to be Mark Buehrle, cause otherwise...
   11. GregD Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1767949)
Detroit immediately sold Booker to the Phillies:

<a href="http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20051208&c>Phillies Press Release</a>
   12. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:29 PM (#1767977)
On the plus side, White Sox fans: Tim Hummel is back in the organization!

He held his own in AAA last season, but I doubt he'll see any time with the Sox.
   13. Anthony Giacalone Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:51 PM (#1768052)
Hummel isn't a bad pickup. I'm sure that he's slated for Charlotte but he could be half a third-base platoon for the Sox if Crede's back is as worrisome as is rumored. He hasn't been a prospect since 2000 (when he was a AA shortstop), but he is still just 27 years old and younger than Joe Borchard.

In the AA phase the Sox took catcher Cole Armstrong from the Braves system. Armstrong, 22, had an excellent but brief 2004 Appy league season but was competely over matched in the Sally league last year.

The Sox also got Dewon Day from Toronto in the A Phase. Day's a 24-year old right-handed reliever who had decent numbers in Appy and NYPenn leagues in 2003-2004. He must have been hurt last year.
   14. Johnny Zen Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:00 PM (#1768065)
Lots of walks projected for Booker. The Phils may have good outfield defense, but I don't know how much of an asset an extreme flyballer is at The Bank. I guess we'll just throw him in the mix during spring training with the other fungibles and see who's the least bad.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:07 PM (#1768080)
The projection was for Detroit.
   16. Rodder Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:29 PM (#1768153)
I looked at Booker's stats from last year and thought, maybe there's an outside chance he becomes our Turnbow or Jenks. Then I saw he turns 29 tomorrow.
   17. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1768161)
Is this the Day that went to Southern or Michigan State?

Poor Baird - losing Santos and Etherton costs him two potential starters.

Vermilyea high GB ratio is not a fluke - he's done that throughout his minor league career and at New Mexico.

What do people know about Wylie? He's just a name to me.

Which Chris Young got taken by the Pirates?

Was Diggins drafted as a pitcher or position player?

I'm surprised Huerta was available in the AA phase - the Pads paid a lot to acquire him a few years back.

I once called Jayce Tingler a better John Cangelosi. This draft is all about failed expectations...
   18. Anthony Giacalone Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1768195)
Dewon Day went to Southern.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: December 08, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1768434)
Padres acquired RHP Steven Andrade, the third pick in today's Rule 5 draft, from the Devil Rays to complete yesterday's trade.
So much for the theory that the former Angels in the Rays' organization wanted him. The Padres will have the soon-to-be 28-year-old compete for a spot in middle relief. Dec. 8 - 4:38 pm et
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 08, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1768435)
Which Chris Young got taken by the Pirates?

This one, who actually was taken by the Marlins from the Pirates.

-- MWE
   21. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 08, 2005 at 11:33 PM (#1768527)
Jamie Vermilyea has no chance to go north with the Sox in April, but with the Jays' 40-man roster as tight unless they start clearing out some 1B/3B guys, the Sox will probably keep him and send him to Pawtucket.

Or, as with Lenny DiNardo a couple of years ago, they could have him fake an injury and stash him on the DL for most of the season.
   22. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: December 08, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1768535)
Hard to believe the Brewers didn't protect Diggins; I thought they looked favorably on him.
   23. Zach Posted: December 08, 2005 at 11:44 PM (#1768546)
Any chance of a ZiPs projection for Esteban German? From a look at his minor league stats, he should be in the thick of things at second base for the Royals.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1768580)
German - 261/338/348 in KC. EK is a nice pitcher's stadium - the pitcher projections are high because their defense stinks and their pitchers stink. Luis Alicea's probably a pretty good comp for what German will do - he'll get on-base at a nice price, but his defense will only be adequate and he won't have much power. German's probably faster, though.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2005 at 12:06 AM (#1768598)
Crap, I was hoping to see Andrade in person this year in Baltimore. I need to get in touch with the team - if he makes the team in spring training, I'd like to send the front office a case of local beer or something.
   26. Zach Posted: December 09, 2005 at 02:28 AM (#1768870)
Thanks. Looking at last year's Royals, that's an OPS+ of ~90. Pretty fair value for a Rule 5 pick.
   27. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: December 09, 2005 at 06:53 AM (#1769214)
Or, as with Lenny DiNardo a couple of years ago, they could have him fake an injury and stash him on the DL for most of the season.

You realize that this doesn't actually get the drafting team out of its obligation to keep the player on its roster for a certain number of days and then return him, right? At worst it's a deferral.
   28. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2005 at 04:00 PM (#1769560)
Rule 5 players must spend at least 90 days on an ML team's active roster.

-- MWE
   29. MM1f Posted: December 12, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1772901)
"Curveball God and BTF Fave Andrade gets a shot at a major league job, too. "

It actually a slider that he throws i think but whatever
   30. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 12, 2005 at 09:36 AM (#1773256)
Wow, I had really thought that Joe Maddon and Mike Butcher were the ones taking a chance on Andrade. Oh well.

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