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Anaheim/California/LA Angels have almost always been near the .500 mark. I ran an analysis of team WPCT over a 5-year stretch. I calculated a rolling 5-year WPCT e.g. Cincy 1971-75,Cincy 72-76 etc.
I defined a great/excellent team as one which reached a level of .540 or better and a very bad team as one which was below .460.
The Astros (until the mid-90s) and the Angels are the only teams in the last half century to be consistently in the .460-.540 range.
The Astros began life near the median in the 66-70 period and stayed there until the 94-98 period.
The Angels have lived near the median all their lives except for two brief dips below the .460 line: 73-77 (.4561) and 92-96 (.4537).
The Angels have been truly average throughout their entire history.
The Astros and the Angels have one other common trait - neither has ever won a playoff series.
The other problem is the ripple effect this has on the lineup and starting rotation. I'm assuming Towers grabbed Tomko to stick in the rotation right now, which suggests to me Kevin Jarvis won't be back, which in turn suggests there were no takers for Ray Lankford, which means Bubba Trammell likely returns to the bench for the time being.
Davis => Gonzalez; okay short-term, bad long-term
Nevin has a better chance of moving to second base, which actually was discussed a few months back, than he does of moving back behind the plate, which he basically did originally to salvage his career.
My guess is that Burroughs will be at 3B, with Nevin at 1B, Klesko in RF, Lankford/Trammell platoon in LF, and one of Jackson/Jimenez at 2B.
Tomko will slot behind Jones, Tollberg, and Lawrence, and in front of whomever wins the #5 spot among Middlebrook, Jodie, Herndon, and maybe Ramsay.
I confess I know very little about Vazquez, though I'm encouraged by the fact that most of what I've heard since the deal went down has been fairly positive.
One thing I've learned about Kevin Towers is that he usually knows what he's doing. I was very critical of his Sanders for Hitchcock, and Hamilton for Woody Williams deals, and those both turned out nicely for the Pads, so I'll try to hold off judgment, but I'm not at all happy to see Davis leave.
I think it's too soon for the Padres to be looking for help for Jiminez at short, and I think it's too soon for the Padres to be giving up on Davis. I think they would have been better off giving both Jiminez and Davis another full year and seeing what happens then.
Trading a prospect for a veteran player can be a smart move for a team that is ready to win right now (which the Padres aren't). Trading a veteran player for a prospect can be a smart move for a team that's focused on the future (which the Padres should be). But as a general rule, trading a prospect for a prospect accomplishes nothing. That's what it appears to me the Padres have done here, and I'm not impressed.
I'd keep Pineiro over Meche and I wonder if Meche and a couple others would be enough to pry Giles away from Pittsburgh.
Peter Angelos (see link under Homepage) apparently put the kibosh on a 7-player deal with the Padres in which the key players were Mike Bordick and LHP John Parrish for Baltimore and Ray Lankford and Mike Darr for the Padres, before the Orioles signed Marty Cordova. If I'd been Angelos I'd have taken that deal in a flash.
-- MWE
Now that I've had a chance to watch the local news, it definitely sounds like they're planning to start Jimenez at 2B. He won't be as good defensively as Jackson (who is?), but his offense should make up for that. Jackson in a utility role is appealing. He's spectacular at 2B, good in CF, and passable at SS in a pinch.
Agree about Lankford. He still looked clueless at times, especially on hard stuff up, but he also had some very good at-bats. He also showed a lot more defensively than I'd expected, even playing some decent CF when Kotsay was hurt toward the end. I'm more just bummed that Trammell is likely to lose PT even after having a fine season but you're right that he'll have to get almost all of Lankford's at-bats against lefties, and he'll probably spot Klesko and/or Nevin every now and again.
It's an interesting trade, to be sure. Like Steve, I'm not convinced giving up on Davis or Jimenez (at SS) so soon was such a good idea, but time will tell.
Lots of other interesting rumors in that Tribune article, probably worthy of a thread of its own.
-- MWE
This is not shaping up to be a happy winter for Pads fans.
On a brighter note, a clause in Bobby Jones' contract has kept Carl Everett from coming to San Diego....
However, if Vazquez doesn't come through, the Pads will now still have themselves covered. Assuming the Pads believe Jimenez is a 2B, not a SS, what would have been the fallback for the Pads? Mendez?
Wild speculation here, but since Boston missed on Pokey Reese, might they be interested in acquiring Jackson? He's essentially the same player as Reese.
Vazquez isn't exactly A-Rod circa '95.
Yeah, they just have to call Littlefield. The Pirates seem to have a nice collection of them started....
Personally, I'm happier with what Towers gave up to get Cruz than what he gave up to get Vazquez. Sure, Cruz is no world-beater, but the guy's only 26 years old. He's cheap, and he'll be a heckuva lot more useful than Donaldo Mendez should Vazquez flop. My biggest question is, if Vazquez doesn't flop, can Cruz play enough positions well enough to deem Damian Jackson expendable? If so, where does Jackson go and what do the Pads get in return for him?
Or, pipe dream scenario: Cruz gets off to a hot start; some team in desperate need for a shortstop calls Towers and gives him the next Tankersley in return; Towers then re-acquires Cruz off waivers two months later.
What kind of speculation? And what are the "issues"? I'm not saying its a guarantee that he'll bounce back, but whatever the issue is, it probably has a better chance of going away than old age does.
1. He bulked up too much by weightlifting - the "Ruben Sierra" syndrome
2. He's on the same "vitamin" diet as Bret Boone
3. He's on a similar diet to number 2, but more 'recreation-oriented', shall we say.
If any one of these is/was true, that's where the risk comes in, is the school of thought.
Cruz/League
I think this is a common misconception. The 2B makes a lot of plays moving away from 1B, including all of his DP pivots, more than SS do. That requires a different set of skills than is normally required for SS.
-- MWE
Cruz's .797 was LAST among 27 qualifying shortstops
Cruz's career ZRs:
Now all they have to do is dig up Oddibe McDowell, and all 3 members of Bobby V's '86 Rangers outfield (Incaviglia, McDowell, Sierra) would be going to Spring Training.....
How does Bubba Trammell feel about this? The Padres keep bringing in all these old outfielders (Gant, Inky).
I suppose if he was going to develop a complex about it, it would have happened several teams ago :)
I can't imagine any of this affects Bubba all that much. With Lankford around, he wasn't going to start anyway. One of Gant or Inky (probably Gant) will be the second RH outfielder, platooning with Lankford in LF. The only way I can see both Gant and Inky making the team is if Trammell is dealt. The only way I can see Trammell landing a starting job in SD is if Lankford is dealt. Of the two scenarios, Trammell being traded seems more likely to me. But I'm not sure how keen anyone would be on starting the season with both Gant and Inky on the big-league roster. More likely, Inky is Gant insurance.
That's what it looks like from here anyway.
Geoff - I know; it was more of a comment that, over the years, the guy usually seems to be in the wrong place at the wrong time for getting PAs :)
Yeah, that's true about Bubba's PAs. Kind of the righty VanderWal. Finally gets his chance, shows that he can get it done, then gets relegated to part-time status anyway.
As for KT, anyone who can turn Andy Sheets and Ed Sprague into Phil Nevin and Dennis Tankersley is doing a good job. Off-hand, the only questionable moves I can recall under his watch are the acquisition of Randy Myers, which effectively pushed Bret Boone out of town, and letting Steve Finley walk in favor of Ruben Rivera, although at least that one made sense at the time.
Jarvis is a guy who will be 33 this year and needed a below-average 2001 to bring his career ERA *down* under 6.
How does a team that has Paquette, Halter, Oscar Salazar and Macias have a "hole" at utility infielder? Their WHOLE TEAM is made up of utility infielders (and catchers).
If utility infielder is such a wonderful position, why did they let Jermaine Clark go last year?
Ah well, sad organizations do things like this. Where's Bill Lajoie when you need him.
Last year, I was shocked to turn on a Padres game and see Dave Magadan, who I had thought had retired around 1996.
Who will we find playing in the San Diego cornfields in 2003? Mike Maddux? Jermaine Allensworth?
Too bad he couldn't stick; when he got a hit the first game of spring training this year, I could tell baseball was back!
I don't know about you guys: I encounter Trenidad (aka "Trent") Hubbard all the time, living on the West Coast. When the M's are done I can usually catch a NL West game over the air or over the Net late at night -- and he's always there. Trent chooses his clubs so he can maximize his end-of-game end-of-day exposure, just like Jay Leno.
I wonder if anyone had a Magadanesque experience when they saw Chris Gwynn resurface as the top Padre pinch-hitter in the 1996 postseason.
LOOGYs are too easy (Ed Vande Berg) to wonder about (Ed Vosberg), so I won't go (Steve Frey) there.
Kind of like Jim Abbot, who went to the big club in Anaheim right out of Michigan (who cheated big-time, by the way. How do you get Sabo, Larkin, and Abbot to go to Michigan to play baseball. There's a reason that Big Ten teams aren't all that great at baseball, its called snow). I wonder how many guys there are out there who spent more time in the minors during their last three years than their first three years?
A - Hank Aaron (755), Brady Anderson (210)
I think so, but he served his purpose. Thank you, Mr. Duquette....
Davis retired at the end of last season, and there was a great heart-warming farewell ovation to him from Reds' fans at the Giants' last appearance there.
Caminiti's career, shall we say, is apparently over.
I did just see a Jayson Stark column where he was listing players with the most ABs without a grand slam, and he included Bernard Gilkey, who's currently in the minors.
Gil Hodges is not the career home run leader for the letter H. Frank Howard has 382 to make him the leader.
I just knew I was going to get something wrong. I'm surprised it took so long for someone to find it.
I don't know that I'd say Zernial is that much more famous than Zeile. Slightly better, sure, but, hell, Inky's #8 on his comp list.
BTW, all Met fans probably knew this in the back of their minds, but guess what? #2 on Zeile's comp list? Robin Ventura. I think the two of them will always be linked as anchors on the 2000-01 teams.
My main point is that, unlike what Steve Cameron said, compared to Zernial, Zeile is not a "relative nobody". Neither one's a great player. What do you want for the Z's?
Trujillo and Perez made the pre-season Sickels report on the Padres way back in January. Not sure how close the other guys are to coming up, if the team is to the point of packing it in for 2002.
Perez is very intriguing. Despite starting the year in the Cal League and being only 20 years old, he's spent some time in the Mexican League facing older competition. He has good stuff, good poise, and is willing to work inside to hitters. His biggest problem is the occasional lapse in command. Over at Ducksnorts, I had him ranked as the #11 prospect in the system coming into the season. He has been dominant this year. Between Elsinore and Mobile, he made 13 starts. In 9 of those starts, his Qmax "S" score was 2 or lower.
As for Fikac, he's been all over the plate lately. The last game of his I saw was on Monday, and he was bouncing pitches, which is not good for a control pitcher. His numbers the past month or so have been pretty brutal and it's clear that something's not right. The likely reason he was sent to Double-A is that Darren Balsley is the pitching coach there, and he's been given a lot of credit for helping to develop many of the Padres top young pitchers. I personally don't expect Fikac to stay there very long.
It's been a tough year for the Padre pitching staff. With Eaton and Walker already expected to miss much of the season, long-term losses to Jarvis, Nunez, and Tollberg have really taxed the system. On the one hand, it's good to see some of the kids get a shot; on the other, it stinks to watch them get pounded. Hopefully they'll be able to take something positive away from the experience and use that as something to build on in the future.
Hmm. Will the Padre organization and Kevin Towers be subject to the same reappraisal that the A's and Beane are going thru this year? Should they be?
I'm not ready to jump off the Pads bandwagon. They still are tremendously deep in pitching prospects and the offense is performing at worst-case scenario levels. Going by position.
C - Wiki was over his head last year, hitting 275/335/462. A blecch 250/320/380 was reasonable. Gonzalez has been injured and missing 60 points of slugging. Lampkin took the playing time and has hit 171/270/293.
1B - Nevin's on the wrong side of 30, so some decline would not be unexpected, but not a 140ish points of OPS loss from his established level of play. On the shelf for awhile, too
2B - Jimenez was looking to be removed another year from his car accident and it was hoped that he'd start to get back to where he was. Even if he didn't, it was reasonable that he'd at least match the 276/355/367 of last season with better defense at 2B than he displayed at short. He's hitting 230/302/302.
SS - Padres got nothing out of short this year and Vazquez, sans further development, should have been hitting like a typical Luis Alicea year. Got off to a horrific start, lost his job to Deivi Cruz for no particular reason and is only now still starting to hit and is at 254/313/323. Cruz is his typical 262/301/388 level of bland crapiness with his defense still in decline.
3B - Not unreasonable for Burroughs to not develop power yet and hitting 250/350/400 would have been reasonable and a bit disappointing. 221/261/282 with a bum shoulder is pretty much worst-case.
OF - Klesko had pretty well established himself at 285/380/530 and he's been better than that this year. Now back at 1st and leaving Lankford, Trammell and Kotsay getting the most at-bats in the outfield. Lankford was expected to continue his long, slow decline but has a .689 OPS. Trammell was established pretty much at league average and is at .699, just above Lankford. That leaves Kotsay, who has been better than expected at 387/473.
Soriano is still a bad defensive player and remains a good Wil Cordero comp to me He's getting an increasing diet of pitches out of the strike zone and he's swinging at them more and more often.
As for the Braves, hey, they're getting pretty good use out of Joyner, Sanders, and Veras. Oh, wait.... ;-)
Are you saying Kotsay now has a 5 year contract for around $22.5 to $25 mil? Or did they tear up the old contract?
What are your defensive comments based on? Stats? Scouting? First hand?
Just wondering?
Kotsay and Damon sound like a good comparison, but not knowing much about Kotsay, I doubt he could match Damon's glove.
I agree with you on ZR, I just wish it were easier to find.
Thanks for the info.
As for Buchanan, all indications are that the deal was more about moving Jason Bartlett, who was about to be run over by Khalil Greene.
I think the problem is, they keep expecting another Kevin Walker or Jose Nunez, and when it doesn't happen right away, they try someone else who doesn't fit that description. Wash, rinse, repeat. Hopefully Walker's return next year will put an end to that cycle.
I thought Bill Lee was retired...
...assuming that Larson recovers from his broken hand in time, that is. While sitting in the dugout, Larson was hit in the head with a line drive, and fell onto his hand, breaking it. The good news is that there was no skull fracture or concussion.
-- MWE
Baseball America and a couple of other sources had reported a couple of days ago that he was going to the Brewers when he was DFA'd.
Sorry to get your hopes up :)
sigh.
Thank God for hockey season.
Is this a sign that they think Brandon Inge and Maxim St. Pierre are the dynamic duo for the future? I think that St. Pierre (like all the other Tiger prospects in the AFL) is hitting a robust .188.
Ugh. Kingsale will fit right in on a team that can't get on base or score.
Kingsale has out-hit Rivera in the majors, but Rivera has better career hitting stats at AA and at AAA. They're the same age, and one is a catcher and the other one is a centerfielder. Huh?
I have heard that Kingsale looks like the second coming of Gary Pettis, but his numbers indicate that he can't run like Pettis could - few can. Besides, as others have pointed out, the last thing the Tigers need is a Gary Pettis.
That said, if Rivera really was deemed surplus to requirements, at least they got something for him rather than lose him on the waiver wire in April.
Those are MLEs? I though those were untranslated minor league stats. Seriously, if those are MLEs, then he's a decent-hitting catching option. I wouldn't mind him sharing time, especially if Magadan hands him a clue.
Funny how now that Randy Smith is back in San Diego, he's able to identify the useful guys in the Tiger system. ;-)
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