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Exactly. When the chips are down, when your team is down two runs with one man on in the bottom of the ninth and two out, who do you want up there at the plate? Exactly.
Now, I don't think this excuses the Cardinals because this sort of thing can't be trusted to carry over from year to year, but I think it should be considered when weighing Martinez' value to New York for 2001, and it porbably goes a long way towards explaining why anyone would be willing to hand him such a lavish contract.
As for me, I'm just thankful the Cardinals beat the Orioles to the punch on this one.
Um, Vinny Castilla is signed for 2 years at 4 mil per, roughly. For that, he'll hit something like Tino Maritinez. If he does pull out his TB Ordonez impersonation, he'll go to the bench and Chipper will play 3B again.
Tino will play 1B, poorly, for the Cards, for the next four years, eating up 10 million plus along the way. It's difficult to concieve, but no, this is worse than the Castilla debacle.
Here's a guess for the 2002 Batting Order:
2B - Vina
The 2001 Newark Bears are getting raided!
As they play a game against all the great left-handed sluggers, Tony walks out to the mound 18 separate times to change pitchers.
Naturally, "Shoeless" Rick Honeycutt is the Ray Liotta character.
Temporarily keeping marginal players on the 40-man isn't a problem as long as you're willing to dump them the instant someone better turns up on the waiver wire. That's the difference between the Padres grabbing a temp like Gene Kingsale and moves like this one.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/Stats/stats_PRL_car.shtml
"There are more tools outside the shed than in it".-Unknown Scout
What?! This was written as a St. Louis Cardinals transaction, not a Cleveland Indians one. If Hournell is the PTBNL, then it's a POOR trade from the Cardinals side.
"Last time I checked Journell has a sore shoulder and has been shut down at AAA Memphis so I doubt he'll be the ubiquitous PTBNL."
Yes, Journell is on the DL, which is exactly why he COULD be the PTBNL....
He was a league average pitcher by age 24 with impressive K/BB rates. You think someone would have thrown him at the back of their rotation and said "Let's see what he can do for the next 5-8 years."
He's 27 this year. Is he generally healthy?
1. He doesn't throw hard. Guys can still get shots when they don't really bring it (like Ted Lilly for example), but you better not struggle for any lengthy period of time, otherwise you're forgotten.
2. He's had an enormous string of bad luck. The four worst places to be a pitcher: Colorado (high altitude), Milwaukee (terrible coaching, suspect defense), Texas (Hitters park, bad defense), Cleveland (Bad defense). Woodard's three stops have been the latter three teams. Add to that a line drive by Frank Thomas off his forearm, a Milwaukee team for whom he was the opening day starter and then in the bullpen a month later and being subjected to the great Texas pitching staff chinese fire drill, and well he's been in tough spots to succeed.
3. Finally it appears that Woodard is also a world class headcase. Everywhere he goes you hear little stories (they'd be bigger if Woodard was a bigger star) about how Woodard doesn't like how the manager is doing this, and about how he should be doing this, and how he wants to start and on and on, and he's never quite learned to keep his mouth shut and concentrate on getting people out.
St. Louis is the best spot he's been in, they need pitchers and for all of LaRussa's faults (and we don't have the bandwidth to detail them all) he seems to be at least a little ahead of the curve on talent recognition.
Actually the arm wasn't broken at all, although everybody in the park that night figured it was. I was watching that game on TV with the radio on -- it was at Comiskey and I can't stand to listen to Hawk -- and I heard Thomas's bat hit the ball and then actually heard another "crack" as the ball hit Woodard's arm. Pretty scary.
Anyway, after the bone bruise healed, Woodard was great at Buffalo but it took him forever to get called up. He racked up a nice 31-1 K/BB ratio, and I read that the one walk was in fact intentional. Not sure how many innings that was, or what his ERA was over that span.
Despite what Voros says about Woodard being a "head case", I always liked the guy, and was both surprised and disappointed when he signed with the Rangers in the offseason. I mean, Hart had done his best to keep him off the 25-man all last season, so why did he re-up with him? My guess is there wasn't a whole lot of interest around the league, but that's a shame since he's pitched some great games in his career (a win against Pedro for the Indians in September '00 as they fought for a playoff spot, plus the game against Clemens mentioned above.)
On the flip side, he and Dunc seem to have a way with older dudes.
Who are all of the above Chisox? And, using Morris is a little tainted, especially following your mandate, "develop young talent well." If that's how you do it well, then I think we better start working on a better way. "Throw 217 innings for me when you're 22, I'll see you when you're 26."
I think Burns hurt his hip after signing with the Yanks (vague recollection). I think it's the lack of any young pitching to go through Tony is the problem. There was a thread recently that showed LaRussa's disregard for young pitchers' arms, especially with the White Sox.
Big Al, please don't resort to crap like "you should really look up the stats." Geesh! I looked up the stats. First, your stat about Trout never throwing 200 innings is arbitrary. 199 2/3 is pretty close, no? And, maybe he would have thrown 200 innings had it not been for LaRussa. I remember the hype around the White Sox youngsters. I remember them collapsing into a big pile of goo by the time they turned 30.
The big question is why hasn't LaRussa developed any young pitching? He's had ample opportunity.
With the Athletics:
Jose Rijo: Threw 193.7 innings for him at age 21 in 1986 (in fairness, LaRussa took over halfway through the season). Was ineffective the next year and was subsequently traded to the Reds, where he acquired a reputation as a dominant but highly fragile starter.
With the White Sox:
Steve Trout: 199.7 IP at age 22. 124.7 IP at age 23 in the strike year of 1981, a total that would project to 190.6 in a full season. Was injured in 1982 (among other times) and was notably less effective in 1983. Started posting more walks than Ks in 1985, and retired after 1989, at the age of 31.
Ross Baumgarten: 190.7 IP at age 24, with a decent record and nice ERA. Declined in effectiveness every year thereafter, and out of the majors at age 27.
Britt Burns: 238 IP at age 21, and 156.7 at age 22 in the strike year of 1981, a total that would project to 239.3 in a full season. Effective in three of the next four years, but never again dominant, and out of the majors by age 26.
Richard Dotson: Threw 198 IP at age 21, 197.7 at age 23, and 141 at age 22 in 1981, a total that would project to 215.3 in a full season. His workload increased until age 26 (still under LaRussa), when he broke down. Had one better-than-average season after that point, and retired at the age of 31 in 1990.
With the Cardinals:
Alan Benes: Threw 191 innings at age 24. Was injured the next season, and will probably never recover fully. Currently bullpen fodder, and out of the organization.
Matt Morris: Threw 217 innings at age 22 in 1997. Injured in 1998, missed all of 1999, and worked out of the bullpen in 2000. Appears to have recovered with no ill effects.
Rick Ankiel: Probably not LaRussa's fault, listed here only for completeness.
Pitchers get hurt; it's one of the things they're best at doing. Nevertheless, it's interesting that of all the initially-successful young starters who came up under LaRussa (and the list above is all of them, or at least the ones who were in the rotation for a full year), none was as successful as a veteran as he was as a young buck. It's also interesting that the only one of the bunch to pitch after the age of 31 was Jose Rijo, he of the multiple arm surgeries and miraculous comeback. With the number of accolades these guys received as youngsters (CYs, All-Star appearances, spots on leader boards), you might think that one would have gone on to a long, successful career. None has, so far. Will Matt Morris be the one to buck the trend?
The first issue is a failure to account for how the innings are distributed in a season. The actual theory behind PAPs or similar measures is that damage to young pitchers takes place mostly after a certain number of pitches in a given game; a pitcher who pitches 7 innings 6 starts in a row is probably getting abused much less than one who pitches 3 complete games then gets shelled after 5 innings the next three starts. I don't have pitch count data to contribute, but a quick perusal of CGs which would presumably involve high pitch counts should illustrate the point:
Responding to several of Big Al's points.
1) Hoyt was never a "young pitcher" under LaRussa, and therefore should be excluded from the discussion. He was 27 in his first full year in the rotation. I don't know why you think I brought him up; you might want to re-read my post...
2) Here are a few details on Burns's hip injury: http://www.canoe.ca/Slam010508/bbl_cal1-sun.html It's still possible to question LaRussa's handling of his pitcher, in that a different usage pattern might have had more favorable results with the hip, but speculating either way is just speculating. I haven't been able to track down a list of other Burns injuries, if there are any, but I may go to the library later today. Or not. I need to work on my car, too.
3) Pitcher abuse is more a function of individual long outings than a function of high IP totals on long rest. Trout may have come up a third of an inning short of your 200 IP standard in 1980, but he threw 6 complete games at age 21 and 7 at age 22. Fans would castrate a manager if he tried something like that today.
4) LaRussa was Dotson's manager when he broke down in 1985 (the year after he threw fourteen complete games and was second in the league in walks), and had been for every year of his career. If workload is responsible for Dotson's injury, then there aren't any otber managers to blame, unless you want to go after his high school coach. Dotson did play for several other managers after LaRussa left the White Sox, but never at a pre-injury level of effectiveness, and his workload never approached the heights that it had under LaRussa.
5) LaRussa was given high-quality pitching prospects to work with, and their success as young players is not a representation of the maximum standard of competence for a manager. LaRussa has never converted a good young pitcher into a good old pitcher, and that's the true gold standard for player development. Anybody can stand by and watch a phenom burn himself out after a few years; does Leo Durocher deserve credit for "developing" Pete Reiser into a good all-around ballplayer? Reiser was great when healthy, but Durocher didn't act to preserve his health (teach him how to better gague the location of the CF wall, move him to a less-risky defensive position, etc.), and his injury wound up costing the Dodgers value in the long run. The type of decline experienced by Reiser is analagous to the decline experienced by all the young starters who pitched for LaRussa. They were star-caliber players in their early 20s, average-at-best in their late 20s, and sitting at home on the porch swing in their early 30s.
6) High IP totals by themselves are acceptable (within reason) for a young starter, but when the high IP total is packaged into a few outings of extreme length, the danger to the starter is greatly increased. While with the White Sox, Tony LaRussa allowed very young starters to throw complete games more often than might have been advisable.
7) If all of Oakland's young starters become injured or experience a substantial decrease in effectiveness as a result of their workload, then yeah, it will be reasonable to blame Art Howe for making them work too hard. People have noted and commented on this workload in other threads, and Dierker's problems with young starters after the departure of Vern Ruhle are well known. They don't contribute much to a discussion of Tony LaRussa; they're a side issue. If all your friends slagged their young starters, would you do it too?
8) The case against LaRussa is entirely circumstantial. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's wrong, only that there is (and should be) some doubt.
He's got the name...he's got the story......now he just needs the game.
I haven't seen the final agreement yet, BUT...the players gave in to a luxury tax, they gave into revenue sharing, and gave in to drug testing, yet some owners still had to be appeased at the last minute??
With free agent compensation officially eliminated, ANYTHING for a month of Wright, even if Morris becomes Chad Green part 2, is OK in my book.
If the Mets were worried about Fonzie's back for a 4 year deal, I don't think they ever had a chance with Rolen.
8 years?!!? Does that strike anyone else as extremely extreme? Agree with Professor on the new environment issues and back issues. I think the Cards got hosed on this one.
I think the market would have said that Rolen's worth about 5 years, $45 mil. Then again, the Yanks are looking for a 3B, so you never know.
The Grich comparison is an interesting one, but I don't remember Grich having the same nagging injuries (perhaps I'm wrong about this, though, because I didn't really follow the AL at that time). I see that after the deal he missed much of the 1977 season (age 28) and also missed significant time later in his career, but after signing with California, he had 5 years with over 140 games and 2 more in the 115-120 range. I'm not as confident that Rolen will match that -- certainly not to the point of committing $11 million a year for the next 8 years.
For the sake of seeing a good player, though, I wish him the best.
I used to be an advocate of keeping him there, but as he approached 130 RBI's, I'll be more than satisfied with him as our left-fielder.
I used to be an advocate of keeping him there, but as he approaches 130 RBI's, I'll be more than satisfied with him as our left-fielder.
Bottom line is that the Cardinals cannot afford to tie up $7.5 million/year in 20 starts the Yankees did last year.
""But I still have that lingering thought of being told to go home, and that's not appealing to me, and I'm very thankful I had an opportunity to not have that be my final memory."
Benes is looking forward to spending more time with his children, ages 14, 9, 8 and 7. He said the only reason to reconsider his decision would be to have the chance to play in the World Series.
Andy Benes, best athlete to come from Evansville?
As a Cub in 2002, 38.5% of balls in play off of Fassero were hits, which is a pretty high percentage, with a 6.18 ERA. With the Cardinals, 29.6% of balls in play were hits, with a 3.00 ERA. In 2001, 33.0% of balls in play were hits, with a 3.42 ERA.
I think a good portion of his bad performance last year was bad luck and bad defense behind him. His BB, K and HR rates were all a bit worse than in 2001, and at his age he might be on a slippery slope, so I think the Cardinals are overpaying. Still, he may well easily one more good LOOGY year left, so it is not a terrible risk.
JDH: There are some pretty interesting names in the StL system; haven't heard any rumors but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
I think the fact of the matter is that they were able to a starter who could post a sub 4.5 ERA for a middle reliever!!!!
That being said, I come to the defense of Luther Hackman, who, two years ago, was in the top 5 in RARP!!!! You can look it up!!!!
Tomko seems like just the 4th or 5th starter the Cards need -- a guy who will post a leage-average ERA, eat up some innings, and probably hit double-digit wins with that potent offense behind him.
A) Jimmy Journell
Grr.............
I fear the presence of Mike Matheny in Atlanta next year.
That said, this makes me very happy. After having to consider going on Paxil to keep away the bad thought that Girardi might come back for another year with the Cubs, and rumors in the papers that it could actually happen, Girardi signs with another team. And not only another team, but THE CARDINALS!
Makes my day.
david, it was all over drudge and some other news outlets a couple of months ago when jacko had to testify in some trial ... repeated plastic surgery has completely ravaged his nose to the point where it looks like it is collapsing on itself ... its pretty scary lookin when he don't wear enough makeup
"However, he has an excellent defensive reputation and is widely lauded for his character. In addition, he brings three World Series rings to a team long on postseason experience but short on world championships."
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