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As a Strangers fan new to Showalter, I wonder whether Buck will find a smart way to maximize whatever it is that Glanville has to offer (beyond a smile and a quick wit, I think he could actually be a useful 200-AB OF/PH/PR/defensive replacement), or will he be thrown into 350-400 disastrous AB's? Any Yankee/D-Back followers have thoughts?
:)
He didn't get that fat that fast did he, or am I confusing him with someone else?
The Phils wouldn't have offered arb unless Glanville agreed not to accept; they made this deal so they could continue negotiating with him. If they hadn't offered arb, he couldn't have re-signed with them [until May 1], so by making this deal both sides get more negotiating time with the other. Since Glanville isn't even Type C, there's no disincentive to another team signing him, so he doesn't lose anything in the process.
Also, Glanville went to Penn, not Dartmouth.
Is the 4th person on that list really all that much better than the 12th best?
Meanwhile, they're going from Pudge Rodriguez to Einar Diaz and non-tendering Frankie Catalanotto.
I can't be alone in thinking that if they put half as much effort in accumulating offensive options as bullpen options, their offense might be as good as people seem to think it is.
Memo to John Hart: Please sign Roger Clemens before Steinbrenner does something stupid.
Make the Cubs look even worse...
WHY? WHY? Why Cubbies?
A lot of his value appears to come from a decent 2.26 BB/9IP ratio. Which contributes to his nice WHIP numbers over the last couple years. 1.28 away WHIP in 2002; 1.19 away WHIP in 2001; 1.14 Coors! Whip in 2001.
I just looked at some of Thomson's other numbers. I would have to say that his HR/IP ratio away from Coors is fairly alarming.
That's Justin Thompson. As far as I know, he's still Rangers property. Last thing I remember hearing was that they had faint hopes was before last season that he'd pitch some time in 2002.
BTW, I like the Yan signing. Get him away from TB, make him a setup guy, and hope he turns out like LaTroy Hawkins 2002.
And yeah, when teams are making their playoff runs, there will be markets for guys like Urbina and Yan, and maybe we can get some prospects.
I haven't the time or interest to do a historical breakdown, but I know the Astros have done it twice recently: picking up Mike Williams and Flash Gordon. Absent injury, the unsaid premise underlying your question is that a playoff caliber team has a solid go-to guy in the 9th. Generally that's true. However, even a team with a Mr. Automatic in the pen can find a way to turn another team's closer into a very nice set-up man for the stretch run and postseason play.
Anyway, given recent history, moving a pitcher like Urbina shouldn't be too hard. He's overpriced, but it's a 1-year contract, so surely some playoff-contending team (or the Cubs) will be willing to eat $1.5 M down the stretch.
FWIW, you didn't sign Carl Everett, you traded the very expensive corpse of Darren Oliver for the equally expensive zombie that is Carl Everett. Of course Carl has this extra year on his contract, but then zombies are better than corpses so this wasn't THAT bad of a deal.
I feel like starting an oversized thread: Who's better, Ruben Sierra or Chris Singleton?
I dunno, Dan. Is that really what happened, or are you just speculating?
Here are some splits:
2002
What would an average DH do? At minimum, I would imagine an average DH would have an OPS+ of 110. That is something Sierra has done exactly once in the last decade. Of course, this is the team/park he did it for, and it was only two years ago. But it really looks like a big fluke. I'd place the odds of Sierra reaching this upside at a minimum of 15-1 against (hypothetically, that is: my career as a bookie has not yet begun).
-- This is actually an interesting story. How did they find out Dickey didn't have the ligament? After the draft, Baseball America had an issue with Dickey on the cover, and in the picture his elbow was bent at an angle odd enough that the Rangers decided to take a looksee to see if there was anything to it. Sure enough, they found he was missing a ligament.
Hot off the wire: Greene just went on the 15-day DL, and Texas called up Laird to back up for a couple weeks. The Kreuter thing might not have been a bad idea in theory, but it looks like the Bad Timing Fairy decided to wave her wand over Arlington.
I'm as surprised as anyone by Park's poor performance so far this year. I didn't think he'd recapture past glories, but an ERA around 4.5 didn't seem entirely out of the question.
Hm, sounds like Joe Torre's kind of guy for the Clay Bellinger memorial roster spot. Sadler may have pinstripes in his future...
If you go by ZiPS, he's due for 8 HRs on his new club: the fabled "last gasp" year David Justice and Glenallen Hill pulled off in their mid-season Yankee trades.
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/6266981.htm
Booo!
He's a major-league quality pitcher. Hell, he's certainly a Ranger-quality pitcher.
Maybe he's not a great set-up guy or long reliever, but there are other roles out there ("middle relief") that he'd be just fine at.
He's not the only one that craves a ding-dong.
Against tough left-handers, Texas is full of candidates like Spencer and Kevin Mench who can spell Fullmer.
Rangers fans, beware Bad Brad's defense. He has an awful reputation, so when you first seem him you may be surprised. "Oh, he's not that bad at all," you'll think.
He will immediately make one of the worst defensive plays you will ever see.
And then you will understand.
He is also a much better baserunner than you would expect a running bicep to be.
I think the insurance companies have something to do with this.
We're not talking about a player on the level of A-Rod or I-Rod, but more on the level of H-Rod. Zoccolillo wouldn't have to be a star, just match the expected production of an oft-injured 37-year-old outfielder coming off knee surgery who hasn't really been a *good* offensive player since 1998.
While your examples are OFs, the 100 OPS+ barrier is the average hitter, not the average corner OF. Long has been far below mediocre these last couple years, he's been replacement level. Ibanez's last 3 years are not substantially different than Jordan's last 3 years.
People seem to be overlooking three very salient points that Dan makes. First, Jordan is chronically injured. Yes, he's been an average-ish hitting corner OF -- when he plays. But he misses lots of time, which cuts into his value to his team.
Second, he's coming off knee surgery, which will likely at least decrease his defensive value, which is where most of his value has come from the last few years.
Third, he'll be 37, so even under the best of circumstances (full-time player without knee surgery), we'd expect a decline and if he declines much, he becomes well below-average.
Which isn't to say this is a bad signing (it's not much money) but just that folks seem to have unrealistic expectations for Jordan. If he gives 120 games with average or better defense and has an OPS+ of 100-105, he'll have given you about the best you could hope for.
Of course there is -- the fact that he's getting older and that he's coming off injury. Given that, there's no reason to expect him to maintain what he's done the last 3 years. A 100-105 OPS+ would represent a small decline.
Age and injury are also the reasons to expect his defensive value to decline. He has been a good defensive player the last few years, that's where much of his value has come from. But knee injuries have a way of decreasing your range, even when they heal nicely. He probably won't decline so far that he'd be substantially below average, but a decline to average or just above is to be expected.
And this is pure speculation, but oft-injured players who are average hitters for their position seem like prime candidates for falling off cliffs in their mid-late 30s.
All I'm saying is that it's off-base to think that an oft-injured 37 year-old player coming off a knee injury will continue to play at the level he has the last 3 seasons.
As to whether that's better or worse than what Zoccolillo et al would do, I have no opinion.
And as much of a fan as I am of Thomson and as anti-fan as I am of Jordan and Young, if Jordan, Young, and Dellucci can combine for about 1,000 PA of average production that probably will be more valuable in an absolute sense than 200 IP from Thomson. The question is more: why not spring the extra $3.5 M for Thomson anyway.
Economic reality: If supply is lower than demand, prices will rise. The supply of free agents wishing to play in Detroit is far lower than Detroit's demand for such services. Hence, even if Detroit demands free agents as much as Texas, Detroit must pay more than Texas in order to attract free agents.
Whether they should be pursuing free agents at all, or Vina in particular, is another story. Perhaps they should lower their demand for free agents, instead trying to develop their own talent. Heck, for all I know maybe they are, while throwing bones at a "proven" Vina to give the fans some semblance of a reason to show up. It wouldn't get most Primates to show up - if they were in Detroit - but not every fan thinks like the typical Primate.
Still, I have no problem with the moves they have made -- patching holes with low-priced vets. But I'm not sure they're in a great position to wait for their pitching to develop. They've got a good young offense that, outside AROD, will be pretty cheap for the next 4 years or so. 2005 or 2006 at the latest is the time to put a decent, reliable staff out there. I've got no problem using 2004 to sort out some starters, but I think they'll be passing up opportunities to compete if they're still going with mostly young starters in 2005. Unless of course these kids are better right away than I'm guessing they will be.
If the Cubs fail to meet Maddux's price (which, if it really is something like 3/$30, is just Boras proving he's 1A to Selig in terms of being the game's biggest ass), he'll probably look at whatever offer they make as lowballing him as revenge for his spurning their offer and signing with the Braves.
Beyond those teams, who else has the money and the pitching need to sign him? I can't see him going to Detroit to pitch out the end of his career on a team that isn't close to climbing out of the second division. And San Diego just isn't showing the interest that I expected.
Oracle's crowbar idea is a good one; offer Nelson an extra $500,000
Seriously, is Jeff Nelson that bad or that hard to deal with that he's worth less than Terry Adams (and far less than Julian Tavarez)? I mean, the projections look OK, 60 games of better than average quality, and there are a bunch of teams who are close to good and short of arms (STL, MIN, CHW) that it seems odd he is getting so little. I mean, 1/4 of the new standard contract? No collusion here...
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