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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Tigers - Acquired Renteria

Detroit Tigers - Acquired SS Edgar Renteria from the Atlanta Braves for P Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez

Yeargh, they’re starting quickly this offseason.  Note to GMs - please refrain from trades and signings until the Winter Meetings since my first projections will be done by then and it’ll make everything more organized for me.  Of course, I’ve also pleaded to both secular and cosmic authorities to prevent the Orioles from making stupid moves every winter for the last 10 years, so it seems that none of Peter Angelos, Syd Thrift, Baby Jesus, God, Flying Spaghetti Monster, Joseph Smith, or the universe’s primordial condition of enormous density and temperature really care about my opinion.

I’m usually a fan of Dombrowski, but this trade just strikes me as odd.  Perhaps I’m missing something, but this strikes me as a waste of resources.  It seems they got in their heads that the best way to fix a 1B hole, partially of their own making, is to move an excellent overall SS to be a merely above-average 1B.  Not to mention that they also got it in their heads that Carlos Guillen had become an inadequate SS, when there’s no evidence of that and selling Guillen on the move by inserting another mediocre-but-not-bad defensive shortstop that’s the same age as Guillen.

Yes, Renteria’s a good player but the Tigers have more pressing needs - they’re playing $13 million to Ivan Rodriguez to be a non-star because they have no other options, for instance.  I know the Tigers have never been high on Shelton, but if he could just hit 350/450, which would be below-average, Guillen/Shelton would be as good as Renteria/Guillen and you can either keep Jurrjens for pitching depth or flip him for someone else, since everyone loves young pitchers that have had some success in the majors.  Speaking of Shelton, I’m not one to go nuts about chemistry stuff, but you gotta feel for the guy.  After his great April in 2006, he played poorly and gets sent to oblivion.  Sean Casey’s acquired and plays equally as poorly as Shelton’s bad months and gets $4 million to come back for a silver plattered job.  Shelton won’t hit like Pena did in 2007 obviously, but he’s another player that looked like an okay 1B that the team faulted for not being more.

Oh, that’s right, Renteria-for-Jurrjens.  We’ve been talking a lot about BABIP lately and we shall continue to here as Renteria had a .332 BA this season, thanks to a robust .375 BABIP, 50 points above his norm.  Combine a BABIP coming back to his more usual level, a change in league and a change to a tougher park, and being a non-star in his 30s, and there’s certainly potential for disappointment.

From a roster management standpoint, this seems a better trade for the Braves.  Like Renteria, Yunel Escobar also had a huge season, but he’s also a decade younger, the better fielder, and with the choice between kicking Kelly Johnson or Renteria to the curb, I think the Braves made the right one.  Starting pitching depth was a real problem for the Braves, with Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, and Jo-Jo “Reggie Cleveland” Reyes being pretty awful behind the big 3.  If Chuck James tweaks something or General Zod shows his age, the Braves starting rotation could look pretty comical quickly.  I’m not sure how Jurrjens actually gets batters out or why ZiPS seems to love him every single year, but he certainly looks like an upgrade over the peanut gallery or hanging out at Kamp Hampton waiting for Mike Hampton to bring food and smite your enemies.  I’m going to continue to disbelieve the projection for Jurrjens.  Maybe I accidentally programmed a pro-Dutch agenda.

There’s also Gorkys Hernandez who’s still too far away to really get a good handle on, but he’s got solid tools and a very strong arm and didn’t embarrass himself too badly for West Michigan.  There was also a coaching issue - there were no bilingual players or a translator on the Whitecaps, which would seem to make instruction harder, which is pretty important for a rather raw player.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Edgar Renteria
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   547 93 157 27 1 10 62 51 85   9 .287 .350 .395
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  587 117 182 34 3 14 83 66 81 13 .310 .382 .450  
Pes. (15%)  402 59 108 18 0   5 35 33 67   4 .269 .325 .351
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Dave Concepcion, Johnny Logan

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jair Jurrjens
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 8   7 27 27 158 170   75 19 34 98 4.27
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 12   6 32 32 191 185   72 17 35 136 3.39
Pes. (15%)  5   8 23 23 126 149   76 21 38 72 5.43
———————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Larry Christensen, Larry Dierker

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:09 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2599870)
I don't know that Jair Jurrjens is the kind of player that's going to make Tiger fans think of this trade and cringe ten years from now, but your analysis is spot-on, Dan (although you're more diplomatic than I would be.) This trade is just a bad idea from whatever angle you care to look at it. It's not so much that they'll miss Jurrjens or Hernandez, but it's about the opportunity cost of spending a bunch of money and a lineup spot on Edgar Renteria, who has already pretty much proven himself not especially worthy of either in the American League.

Can't believe I'm saying this, but they managed to find an option even worse than giving up something of small value for Jack Wilson and his contract. At least Wilson would give them strong defense at the position.

I'll make only one point in Dombrowski's defense here--he has access to complete medical files on Carlos Guillen and might have good reason to believe Guillen needs to move off short if he's going to have much chance of playing most of a year at this point. Still... I don't think this is Dombrowski's best option for replacing him. I don't see much hope Reneteria is going to be above-average in the AL.
   2. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2599912)
Can't believe I'm saying this, but they managed to find an option even worse than giving up something of small value for Jack Wilson and his contract. At least Wilson would give them strong defense at the position.

I haven't heard much to make me think Wilson really so much better a defender than Renteria. And it would be difficult to think Wilson would have a good chance to give you an OPS+ of > 80.
   3. Poochie Mahoney Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:02 PM (#2599961)
As a regular viewer of Carlos Guillen, I have to say while he was always a tad erratic (usually bungling routine plays and then making a highlight reel double play), his range badly tapered off at short near the end--there is no other reason why Ramon F. Santiago would play so much down the stretch.

While programs always disputed me, I never thought Chris Shelton was a good defender at all, which is one reason why I liked Casey (I don't know how many times Dan Dickerson said "good pick by Casey," but it was a lot), particularly when Inge and Guillen deliver the throws.

It seems that once again, Dombrowski is bringing back the band. With Sheff and Renteria, I'm sure we'll trade for Conine and Livan Hernandez in mid-season or something.
   4. Gainsay Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2599992)
Wilson did have an OPS+ of 105 last year, so a decent offensive season isn't completely out of the question. He does still have a career OPS+ of 79. I also think the Pirates aren't really inclined to dump at this point. The only internal replacement they have would be picking up Izturis' $5m option which makes any salary savings practically a wash. They also don't really have a pressing need to save payroll this year. It would probably would have taken a package almost as good to get Wilson.
   5. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:34 PM (#2600018)
Yeargh, they're starting quickly this offseason.

That's nice, but I don't know why this comment is addressed to me.
   6. flournoy Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:25 PM (#2600304)
spending a bunch of money and a lineup spot on Edgar Renteria, who has already pretty much proven himself not especially worthy of either in the American League.


He has proven himself especially worthy of both in the National League, but you prefer to judge him on one off-year? (Which wasn't really all that bad, offensively.)
   7. Russ Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2600326)
The only internal replacement they have would be picking up Izturis' $5m option which makes any salary savings practically a wash.


I think you're underrating Bixler. ZiPS has Bixler at a tiny notch above Wilson hitting-wise, plus Bixler is not super old like most Pirate "suspects". The Pirates could have (and likely should have) moved Wilson when he was red hot at the end of the season, if only because Bixler was available to step in. The rotting corpse of Itzuris is a Littlefieldian red herring leftover from a regime that was really only invested in looking like it was trying to win instead of actually doing so.
   8. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2600328)
Folks put way too much weight on that bad year in Boston.
   9. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2600337)
Also, Atl is picking up some of Renteria's salary. The Tigers are due for an offensive drop anyways, so improving their defense (which the two moves do) is helpful. A decent LF platoon partner for Thames would really help - is Delucci available? The key for the Tigers in 08 is run prevention, IMO. Another arm for the pen and another SP option, even low-priced, would make me feel much better about this team.

Absolutely agreed on Shelton, but then, I'm his biggest champion around here anyways.
   10. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2600348)
Renteria's defense is passable, his bad back keeps him from moving very well. Unless Guillen was just Jeter-esqe bad, I can't believe Renteria is much of an upgrade.
   11. AROM Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2600352)
The Pirates could have (and likely should have) moved Wilson when he was red hot at the end of the season, if only because Bixler was available to step in.


Jack transformed into Hack in September, when it would have been too late for a contending team to add him to the postseason roster. His August numbers were great but I don't think they brought his season totals up to the point where anybody really wanted him.

Then September: .460/.493/.825. Who could have guessed?
   12. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2600353)
Carlos's defence really deteriorated as the year went on. He would have been a horror show out there next year.
   13. Honkie Kong Posted: October 30, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2600358)
Also, Atl is picking up some of Renteria's salary.

Just the $1 mil trade bonus, which kicks in.
Renteria is a good bet to be above average with the bat and average with the glove. last year's injury was a freak, and he is still only 31. So its a pretty good pick up for the Tigers.
Braves did as well as they could, so no complaints!
   14. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2600364)
Billfer at the DTW has a very good breakdown of the deal:

So in terms of performance the Tigers have added 2 to 2.5 wins. For a team that is on the playoff bubble though that isn’t inconsequential. And Renteria comes with an affordable price tag with $12 million guaranteed over the next 2 years which could go to $20 million if the Tigers exercise a club option. Nate Silver has broken down the dollar implications of the deal and says both teams won in this trade.

A tentative yay. I like the acquisition but I don’t like the cost, but I’m not alone in that sentiment. I also agree with Lee who notes that this is a trade we could be talking about for years to come.
   15. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:01 PM (#2600367)
Hmm - I can't edit posts? I wanted to italicize Billfer's writing that I quoted - that's all him!
   16. Tim D Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2600393)
Well, I beg to differ. The Tigers will pay 6.3M to Renteria this year. They can pick up an uption for 11M next year. If they don't, Boston pays the 3M buy out. So this isn't a financial millstone.

They have several middle infield prospects but no one close to ready. If you haven't noticed, the Tigers have an old core. They need to win now and DD knows it. Defensive metrics aside, Renteria is vastly superior at SS to Guillen and Guillen will be vastly superior at 1B to Casey. The Tigers' management thinks leaky infield defense was a big reason their pitching sucked this year. Guillen made 27 errors. His knees are shot. He will be a lot better off at 1B and he will be league average there offensively. Renteria does not have the range he once had but he makes the plays and he has a great arm. A guy like Renteria evokes the prinicpal reasons I still distrust defensive metrics; he's won gold gloves, managers and players still think he's great, baseball people universally agree Guillen is done as a SS and yet his metrics are better than Renteria's. Something is wrong with those evaluations. Renteria will contribute offensively. A guy who won't K much with a .360 OBP and some pop in the six hole makes all kinds of sense. It pushes Pudge to 7th, a good thing.

Shelton had an .801 OPS at Toledo with 140+ Ks. I like Shelton and have been a big supporter, but 350/450 is what they got from him at AAA. He's what, 28 now? He got totally messed up after that monster April and hasn't figured it out in 2 seasons since. I don't think he's more than an extra bat off the bench at this point. Playing Shelton leaves Guillen at SS; I don't think that's an option they are willing to consider.

Jack Wilson will put up an 80 OPS+ and a .320 OBP under most circumstances. He contributes a little more with the glove but they already have low OBP from Pudge and Inge, and who knows what in LF. You don't want three outs in a row at the bottom of the order.

Pudge is getting his 13M because of his defensive and intangible value, not his bat. A young catcher capable of outplaying Pudge is a very rare commodity these days, very hard to get unless you are willing to trade Mark Texiera. They will draft catchers and cross their fingers.

Jurrjens is 21 and has no time at AAA. He did well in his 7 games in Detroit but there is no guarantee he is going to make a smooth transition to the ML level. He had shoulder soreness late in the season. He throws low 90s, changes speeds, hits spots. He does not have a dominant pitch. He does not have the upside of Miller, Porcello or Trahern. They still have Miner, Vasquez, Bazardo and De La Cruz. Jurrjens is a 3 or 4 guy with the upside of say Miguel Batista. They can afford to move Jurrjens.

Hernandez played well at 19 in low A. He has speed to burn, a good arm and some instincts on how to play CF. He makes contact but has no power and doesn't walk. He is Juan Pierre right now (OPS .735), obviously with more upside, but not before 2009 or more likely 2010. If he ever makes it to Detroit they will still presumably have Granderson and Maybin, both far better players, at least at this point.

I understand this trade from the Braves side and I think they got 2 good kids. But Detroit wants to beat Cleveland in 2008. Renteria could help them do it. They need a LH hitting FA who can play some LF. I keep hearing Jenkins but prefer a Mike Lamb type who could also spell Inge at 3B. They need pitchers to get healthy. They will likely keep Rogers another year and probably bring in another veteran arm. But if Bonderman, Zumaya, Robertson, Rodney, et al aren't healthy none of this will matter and no amount of patching will fix it. I like this move for the Tigers.
   17. Sparkles Peterson Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2600402)
Renteria has it in him to more than justify this trade. I am a believer in the value of BABIP, but if you've never seen Edgar when he's locked in and spraying line drives around the park, he is capable of sustaining a BABIP in the .375 neighborhood. The mystery is why he can't do it more consistently.
   18. Rocco's Not-so Malfunctioning Mitochondria Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2600411)
Pittsburgh already waived Izturis before the season ended, so there's no possible way they could pick up his option.
   19. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2600420)
I agree with #16 entirely. The Tigers are in win now mode, they do not have young bats to go around-even their young breakout player this year is 26 going on 27 (Granderson). I liked Jurrjens and Gorkys, but again I agree with the post-Jurrjens is perhaps a young Kenny Rogers and the pitching depth is enough to move him right now. As well, Gorkys is playing at a position that the Tigers have better players at right now. With the expected drop off of Maggs and perhaps Polanco and Sheffield adding another bat was smart.

I do wonder is Larish a prospect at all for the Tigers? He led the Eastern League in homers. Is Hessman, Raburn, or Hannahan any sort of options for the future? Is Infante going to be on the roster? Just wondering as I do not have the knowledge that other Tigers fans that post here have about these guys.

And pitching is what really worries me right now-it worried before this season as well. Verlander is the ace, but after that it is a question mark-there is talent, but there are question marks. Is Zumaya going to be the closer now? Do we go after someone in free agency (Cordero?). The current roster's, as far as hitters, window is very limited and I so want another shot at the World Series with these guys so I like the trade.
   20. Mike Green Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2600422)
Nate Silver's account of the deal in BP is spot on. Hernandez is a very nice prospect- the MWL is a tough hitting environment. His W/K/HR rates for a 19 year old centerfielder there are quite good overall. Over the long haul, the Braves are very likely to emerge with the most value, but at the same time, the deal may work for the Tigers in the short run.
   21. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2600434)
Hannahan is now an Athletic (dealt for Jason Perry).
I like Raburn more than most and think he could be an average starter or above average bench player. He plays five positions (corner outfield: solid range and arm, center field: adequate, third and second: bad).
Larish: Likely a AAAA player. Needs to shorten his swing significantly. At peak, could be an average corner outfielder and plus glove at first.
Hessman: He's been around FOREVER. He probably could help somebody out - he's got good range at third and a bunch of raw power. Will K often, enough to kill his BA and significantly temper his OBP. Also can play a few other spots, he'd be a good bench guy for a lot of teams. A Ken Phelps'er.
   22. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2600435)
A guy who won't K much with a .360 OBP and some pop in the six hole makes all kinds of sense. It pushes Pudge to 7th, a good thing.

You're going to want renteria in the #2 hole.
   23. Sparkles Peterson Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2600437)
Nate Silver's take was one of the stupidest things I've read this year. What percentage of 19 year olds who "didn't embarrass" themselves in low A ball, to use a phrase from the other thread, would you guess wash out and never develop into anything above replacement level? I'm guessing 50% at bare minimum, so to go ahead and value him at $10 million per year through arbitration, you'd have to say that the other 50% of the time he actually winds up worth $20 million per year, which is quite a feat for someone with no power.
   24. gay guy in cut-offs smoking the objective pipe Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:43 PM (#2600441)
You're going to want renteria in the #2 hole.

(insert Mike Piazza joke here)
   25. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:47 PM (#2600445)
Hannahan is now an Athletic (dealt for Jason Perry).
I like Raburn more than most and think he could be an average starter or above average bench player. He plays five positions (corner outfield: solid range and arm, center field: adequate, third and second: bad).
Larish: Likely a AAAA player. Needs to shorten his swing significantly. At peak, could be an average corner outfielder and plus glove at first.
Hessman: He's been around FOREVER. He probably could help somebody out - he's got good range at third and a bunch of raw power. Will K often, enough to kill his BA and significantly temper his OBP. Also can play a few other spots, he'd be a good bench guy for a lot of teams. A Ken Phelps'er.



Thanks, I was just going through Baseballamerica's minor league stats-they did not realize Hannahan has been traded. I like Raburn as well from what I have seen as a super sub type with a decent bat. It seems we are somewhat loaded with young pitching prospects, but have little to show for young position players.
   26. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2600451)
Pittsburgh already waived Izturis before the season ended, so there's no possible way they could pick up his option.

Good.
   27. AROM Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2600459)
Sparkles,

I think Nate is projecting hyperinflation as the fed ignores the price of oil, gold, and foreign currency in an effort to prop up stocks and house prices.

He also has Renteria as providing surplus value by being worth 15-20 million the next two years while only being paid 10 per year.

My take is that Renteria is worth his contract, not much more, but that could change when we need a 50 pound box of $100 bills just to buy groceries.
   28. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 30, 2007 at 06:57 PM (#2600465)
Pittsburgh already waived Izturis before the season ended, so there's no possible way they could pick up his option.

Wow, it's going to look even more embarrassinger when Duke heads to the Cubs.

(I kid)
   29. a wider scope of derision Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2600475)
Fan's Scouting Report 2007

Renteria and the Braves
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007_ATL.html

Guillen and the Tigers
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007_DET.html

It's a big improvement... and Guillen projects to be at least as good (if not better) than Casey at 1B.
   30. AROM Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2600476)
Defensively I have:

Casey +2, Guillen -8

going to

Guillen +4, Renteria -2.

So you get an 8 run upgrade plus Renteria's bat over Casey's.
   31. a wider scope of derision Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2600479)
They need a LH hitting FA who can play some LF.


If only there was someone on the market who fit that bill! And wouldn't it be great if he had already played for the Tigers' current manager?

Oh well.
   32. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2600487)
So you get an 8 run upgrade plus Renteria's bat over Casey's.

There is also the potential of improvement in Guillen's offense by moving him to a less demanding defensive position. The Brandon Inge effect.
   33. AROM Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2600491)
True, but at any position I don't think you can ask for much more offense out of Carlos than what he's done the last 2 years.
   34. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2600501)
At the very least, you should be able to get more PAs (yeah I know - he did 630 last season and that's a lot).
   35. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: October 30, 2007 at 07:56 PM (#2600540)
Which cap will Renteria wear on his HoF plaque? The only shortstops with more hits than Renteria through their age 32 seasons who aren't in the Hall are A-Rod and Jeter.
   36. flournoy Posted: October 30, 2007 at 08:00 PM (#2600545)
I wondered about that. If he plays regularly into his late 30s, he has a good shot at 3000 hits. If he gets 3000 hits, he probably has very good Hall of Fame odds, despite the fact that nobody considered him a Hall of Famer in his prime. (Like Craig Biggio.)

At this point, a Cardinals hat is my choice.
   37. Rocco's Not-so Malfunctioning Mitochondria Posted: October 30, 2007 at 08:06 PM (#2600553)
I wondered about that. If he plays regularly into his late 30s, he has a good shot at 3000 hits. If he gets 3000 hits, he probably has very good Hall of Fame odds, despite the fact that nobody considered him a Hall of Famer in his prime. (Like Craig Biggio.)


Ugh. Some people did consider Biggio to be a hall of famer in his prime. Damon and Renteria are different situations. They were decent players who were the second or third best in their leagues in certain seasons. Biggio was one of the 10 best players in baseball for several years, and one of the top 3 2Bs in baseball for about 10 years. Very different situation.
   38. Dizzypaco Posted: October 30, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2600584)
Ugh. Some people did consider Biggio to be a hall of famer in his prime.

Not only that, but almost everyone recognized he was really good, even if they didn't know how good. Craig Biggio was on seven all star teams in eight years. His counting statistics during the 90's were terrific. He was part of the "killer B's". He may have been underrated, but he wasn't that underrated.

3000 hits helps hall of fame chances a lot, but it won't turn a clear non-candidate into a candidate who gets elected.
   39. JPWF13 Posted: October 30, 2007 at 08:26 PM (#2600585)
I wondered about that. If he plays regularly into his late 30s, he has a good shot at 3000 hits. If he gets 3000 hits, he probably has very good Hall of Fame odds, despite the fact that nobody considered him a Hall of Famer in his prime. (Like Craig Biggio.)


What 37 said

Renteria's best 5 offensive seasons: 130, 125, 113, 104 an d92, career 97. And he's no Ozzie Smith either, he's been a below average defensive SS for at least 2-3 years now.

Biggio's 5 best: 143, 141, 139, 138, 130, career 111.

Renteria projects to 2498 hits on BBREF. The problem with that projection is that all but one of his 10 comps were better hitters than him.

Damon and Renteria may have a huge # of hits at a young age- a 3000 trajectory so to speak, but neither is the quality of hitter likely to sustain enough playing time late in their careers to reach that mark.

Renteria's dee is going to be completely unacceptable at SS in a year or two, so unless you think that 125 mark in 2007 is his true talent level, his career as a FT player isn't going to lat past 2009/10. He;'s not going to reach 3000 or get particulary close.
   40. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: October 30, 2007 at 08:36 PM (#2600593)
...but it's about the opportunity cost of spending a bunch of money and a lineup spot on Edgar Renteria, who has already pretty much proven himself not especially worthy of either in the American League.

This has been commented on up-thread but Jesus, correlation is not causation. If Andruw Jones had been a FA last year and gone to an AL team all we'd hear about is how he couldn't adjust to the league. Players have down years. Stop looking for causation in random coincidental facts.

Renteria should hit well enough to be an upgrade over Casey (duh). Renteria should defend well enough (for the next two years) to be an improvement over Guillen. (After that I wouldn't bet on it. OBE's range is already diminished and it isn't going to improve with more age.)

Jurrjens give the Braves a #4 starter. Hernandez gives them someone to push Jordan Schafer. $8 mil gives them potential to buy a stopgap CF or a stopgap #3 starter.

Trite, I know, but this is your proverbial win-win.
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2007 at 09:26 PM (#2600646)

There is also the potential of improvement in Guillen's offense by moving him to a less demanding defensive position. The Brandon Inge effect.


I've found it to be statistically significant on moves from catcher, but not other positions.
   42. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 30, 2007 at 09:48 PM (#2600661)
I've found it to be statistically significant on moves from catcher, but not other positions.

I think there is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that Guillen was becoming physically debilitated - so I think this could be a special case.
   43. gay guy in cut-offs smoking the objective pipe Posted: October 30, 2007 at 11:02 PM (#2600705)
3000 hits helps hall of fame chances a lot, but it won't turn a clear non-candidate into a candidate who gets elected.

If you play the game long enough to accumulate 3000 hits, odds are that your other counting stats have started to look impressive enough that you're no longer a "clear non-candidate". Is anyone in the 3000-hit club to this point a clear non-candidate? I can't think of anyone; everyone who qualifies is already in the Hall, Rickey is a shoo-in, Biggio will make it, and Palmeiro certainly would have if not for the steroid controversy.
   44. greenback likes millwall, they don't care Posted: October 30, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2600711)
I think you're underrating Bixler. ZiPS has Bixler at a tiny notch above Wilson hitting-wise, plus Bixler is not super old like most Pirate "suspects". The Pirates could have (and likely should have) moved Wilson when he was red hot at the end of the season, if only because Bixler was available to step in.


I think it's odd that the Pirates didn't call up Bixler this past September. I also thought it was odd that Bixler got some time at 2b at the end of the AAA season with Don Kelly (who?) playing ss.
   45. DFA Posted: October 31, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2600941)
Of course, I've also pleaded to both secular and cosmic authorities to prevent the Orioles from making stupid moves every winter for the last 10 years, so it seems that none of Peter Angelos, Syd Thrift, Baby Jesus, God, Flying Spaghetti Monster, Joseph Smith, or the universe's primordial condition of enormous density and temperature really care about my opinion.


I'm just praying for Father Time. Angelos isn't immortal, is he?

On topic, this seemed like a success cycle move to me; the Tigers' window might be closing pretty soon so I suppose I can understand it. Long term, advantage Frank Wren (wasn't he a GM of some other team that fired him after 12 months before allowing Syd Thrift be the GM for 3 years. Nah, that didn't happen).

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