Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Tigers - Signed Polanco

Detroit Tigers - Signed 2B Placido Polanco to a 4-year deal worth $18.4 million.

This is simply a wonderful signing by Dombrowski.  Polanco does pretty much everything well and almost never will you get players with his service time inked to such a fabulous deal.  A hair over $4 million a year for Polanco is better than pretty much all the infield signings last winter and I’m willing to wager it’ll be better than most of the contracts inked during the upcoming FA season.  The only danger here is injury (just look what losing his legs did to Offerman), but you can say that about pretty much every player.  Nicely done.

Dan Szymborski Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:17 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:40 AM (#1518782)
Great. Things are turning around in Detroit. Even if the Royals were to start becoming competent, the rest of the AL Central is actually making good move after good move.

Thanks a lot Dombrowksi. At least I could count on Randy Smith making idiotic moves.
   2. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:46 AM (#1518800)
I wonder how much money Polanco has missed out on throughout his career. Compared to what Jimmy Rollins got (though for a more difficult defensive position, granted), this seems like a steal.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:41 AM (#1519071)
Isn't this what David Bell signed for a couple years back. Brilliant moves by the Phils.
   4. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:43 AM (#1519080)
As much as I like Todd Walker, I really wanted the Cubs to sign Polanco last year. And then he accepted arbitration to go back to Philadelphia in what seemed like a colossal miscalculation on his part.

But, in the end, it worked out for him.
   5. mgl Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1519105)
Good signing. Very underrated (or underappreciated) player for a long time...
   6. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1519107)
$4.6 million a year? That is a good deal for the Tigers. Even if he loses a step or two defensively, he's still likely to be a solid DH/bench guy at the end of the contract.

Considering how weak the free agent crop is this season, I would think he could have done better. I guess after last off-season Polanco was too gun-shy to take the chance though.
   7. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1519114)
Polanco really should fire his agent (again). Good deal by Dombrowski.
   8. Asher87 Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1519148)
Great deal for the Tigers. The Guillen/Polanco middle infield combo is one of the best around. (offensively speaking)
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1519162)
god damn tigers, I was hoping for Polanco, looks like the Cardinals will have to settle for Grudz next season.
   10. J. Michael Neal Posted: August 03, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1519284)
Woo hoo! Maybe Detroit is turning into a desireable place to play again.
   11. Rick Vaughn Posted: August 03, 2005 at 05:53 AM (#1519377)
I don't really remember too much from his days in St Louis, but perhaps Polanco is one of the rare few who would actually rather be happy in the place that he's playing, than take the extra millions of dollar's he'll never spend anyways.

Seemed like he was content in Philadelphia until they totally dicked him over for playing time. Hell if I was Placido, I would've re-upped with Philly too, knowing full well, I'd be playing over David Bell everyday.
   12. DCW3 Posted: August 03, 2005 at 07:03 AM (#1519456)
god damn tigers, I was hoping for Polanco, looks like the Cardinals will have to settle for Grudz next season.

I had heard earlier in the year that the plan was to move Eckstein to second and slot in Hector Luna and short--but Luna has really given little reason to think that he's ready to start in the majors.

A few months ago, I thought that the Yankees were a sure bet to snap up Grudzielanek after the season, but they've got Cano now.
   13. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 03, 2005 at 12:37 PM (#1519532)
Seemed like he was content in Philadelphia until they totally dicked him over for playing time.

Considering what they were sitting on with Chase Utley, I don't blame them for it. I think they counted on Polanco leaving and getting the draft pick.

Utley .312/.387/.535
Polanco 2004 .298 /.345 /.441

I like Polanco, but I have a hard time justifying playing him over Utley.
   14. MikeinMI Posted: August 03, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1519546)
So Vina's not getting resigned?

Seriously, great signing by Detroit. I thought he would stay when they didn't send him out Sunday like Farnsworth.
   15. AROM Posted: August 03, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1519548)
If you're a stathead and you look at baseruns relative to position (or whatever you want to use for offense) and UZR, you'll love Polanco.

If you're a traditionalist and prefer batting average, making contact, and low error totals, you'll love Polanco.

If you want a tenor to sing the national anthem...well, I don't know if Polanco can sing but with that name he should.

So I was really surprised nobody wanted to give him this deal last winter, and I can see why Polanco jumped on it instead of testing the free agent waters again.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:08 PM (#1519560)
He actually makes up most of that gap with defense, at least at second or third.

I like Polanco, and I like the signing in general terms, but I worry about that fourth year.
   17. Rick Vaughn Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1519582)
Considering what they were sitting on with Chase Utley, I don't blame them for it. I think they counted on Polanco leaving and getting the draft pick.

I was thinking more along the lines of:

David Bell .251/.309/.366
   18. Earthworm Jim Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1519585)
I think they probably could've gotten Polanco for $2 - $3 million per year, but...

That's around what Todd Walker is making and I don't think Polanco is much better than Todd Walker.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:51 PM (#1519593)
I don't get these lines:

"Todd Walker is making so much, thus so-and-so should be making so much"

I think this really should be irrelevant to any self-respecting organization. You try to pay a player what you think he's worth (ok, less than that if you can), not what someone else out there is making. If someone determines that Polanco would contribute $5m in production to the Tigers, and the Tigers sign him for $4.6m, then it's a good signing for Detroit.
   20. Earthworm Jim Posted: August 03, 2005 at 01:56 PM (#1519600)
Where do you get that $5 million from? How do you quantify "production" monetarily?
   21. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:07 PM (#1519619)
Walker also signed at a discounted rate to stay with the Cubs.
   22. 1k5v3L Posted: August 03, 2005 at 02:09 PM (#1519622)
I'm sure that someone like MGL could explain that a lot better, but my understanding is that buying one win in free agency costs about $2m. (I think there was a piece on prospectus where someone (Nate Silver?) quantified this.) So if you sign a guys for $5m/year as a free agent, you need him to contribute about 2.5 wins at that position to break even. I was looking at Polanco's PECOTA card, and his projected total WARP for the next 3 years or so is about 4 to 5 per year. If he's really that good over the next 3-4 years, then Detroit would've gotten a bargain. [This of course is my logic, and I don't claim to have all the numbers right, so I encourage anyone to correct me if I'm wrong.]
   23. Joel W Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1519740)
That's about right Levski. Also, if Detroit thinks they can make a playoff run in the coming years (actually a possibility when I think about it, wow) the win is worth more like 2.5 mil, because of increased interest. Also, I don't think BPro gives his defense enough credit...
   24. GregD Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1519758)
I posted this in the other Polanco thread, but the comparison to Bell is a little simplistic.

Signing Bell to a 4-year deal before the 2003 season was a mistake, but it didn't have anything to do with Polanco. They signed Bell to play alongside Polanco, and for 2 1/3 years the two did play alongside each other. The Bell signing had no impact at the time on the organization's plans for Polanco.

Utley developed, probably better than people expected. It also turned out, despite some fiddling, that he didn't develop into a centerfielder, which some people thought he might.

By the time Utley developed, the Bell contract was a sunk cost. It's possible that the Phillies should have offered Polanco this contract to play third, and simply ate Bell's contract, but then they'd have close to $10 million a year invested at third base. They chose to spend that money elsewhere.

Ed Wade deserves a lot of grief, but the simplistic Bell-Polanco comparison doesn't illlustrate why.
   25. Poochie Mahoney Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1519760)
I like what Detroit is doing. They had to do something in 2004-05 in order to get the franchise back to respectability. Thus, they managed to create a .500 or so team. The next step is to get a playoff team.

C: Aging Pudge
1B: Chris Shelton
2B: Placido Polanco
SS: Carlos Guillen
3B: Brandon Inge
LF: ?
CF: Craig Monroe
RF: Magglio Ordonez
DH: Dmitri Young

This is not that bad a lineup provided everyone stays healthy (no easy proviso). With the Rock leaving left field, the Tigers should easily fill that with a decent free agent signing--Dmitri might be gone too, but again, this shouldn't be that big a deal.

SP: Jeremy Bonderman
SP: Mike Maroth
SP: Nate Robertson
SP: ?
SP: ?
CP: Fernando Rodney?

Here is an enigma. You have a young ace and two decent if erratic starters. The key here is to replace Jason Johnson with a good pitcher, perhaps a proven veteran and then hopefully Wil Ledezema or Sean Douglass or whoever will stabilize the fifth starter's position. The bullpen has some good setup men, but the closer is up in the air.

All in all, though, 2006 should be the make or break year of Alan Trammell's career.
   26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1519797)
"LF: ?
CF: Craig Monroe"


I think you can put Monroe in left and Granderson in center, and save FA money for a starter or killer bullpen guy.
   27. chemdoc Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:44 PM (#1519809)
LF: ?

Curtis Granderson. If/when Rondell leaves, the savings goes toward that additional starter (A.J. Burnett, perhaps). Figure also that Verlander gets a real shot at the rotation next year (hopefully his recent twinge is just that).

There's definite reason for optimism.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: August 03, 2005 at 03:54 PM (#1519835)
Ed Wade deserves a lot of grief, but the simplistic Bell-Polanco comparison doesn't illlustrate why.

Sure it does. Everyone knew Bell was a bad signing at the time. Nobody could justify giving him 4 years.

Don't sign Bell or sign Bell for only 2 or 3 years and, voila, you can afford Polanco at no extra cost.

Don't waste money on crappy middle relievers and you can afford Polanco.

And yes, it pretty clearly shows that Wade doesn't understand sunk costs. They didn't spend the Polanco money elsewhere, this season they spent it on Polanco. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if next year's Polanco money was spent replacing Bell.

The idiocy of the Phils has been evident all year. David Bell has 358 AB, Polanco has 158. That's not a decision they made 3 years ago, that's a decision they made this year ... and both players were being paid the same this year.
   29. Harris Posted: August 03, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1520077)
The idiocy of the Phils has been evident all year. David Bell has 358 AB, Polanco has 158. That's not a decision they made 3 years ago, that's a decision they made this year ... and both players were being paid the same this year..

The one difference is that we couldn't trade bell to any idiot teams.
   30. Petro Posted: August 03, 2005 at 06:13 PM (#1520109)
SP: ?
SP: ?

I'm pretty sure these will be filled by Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya.
   31. Every Inge Counts Posted: August 05, 2005 at 05:35 AM (#1524634)
Actually, if Peter Gammons is to be trusted, one of those pitching spots will be taken by A.J. Burnett.

Really, I think next year's roster might look like this:

C: Pudge
1B: Shelton (thanks Dave Littlefield!)
2B: Polanco (thanks Ed Wade!)
SS: Omar Infante
3B: Carlos Guillen
LF: Craig Monroe
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Magglio Ordonez
DH: Free-agent, Pudge, Maggs, etc.
Super-sub: Brandon Inge-he has been declining heavily recently, think he might be better off as as utility guy (3B, C, and CF..)

SP: Jeremy Bonderman
SP: Nate Robertson
SP: ?A.J. Burnett? (would be 2nd pitcher if signed)
SP: Mike Maroth
SP: Verlander/Zumaya
Swingman: Sean Douglass-if he keeps it up.
Closer: Fernado Roney for right now.
   32. WalkOffIBB Posted: August 05, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1525145)
If/when Rondell leaves, the savings goes toward that additional starter (A.J. Burnett, perhaps).

Plus they have Vina's and Higgenson's contracts coming off the books this year. That is about $16 million.

3B: Carlos Guillen (thanks Bavasi)

Fixed that for you.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4114 seconds
66 querie(s) executed