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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 22, 2004

Toronto Blue Jays

Signed P Roy Halladay to a 4-year contract worth $42 million.

Excellent work by the Blue Jays as Halladay would likely get more than that on the open market.  Given Kerry Wood’s recent contract, Halladay would have ended up with 9 or 10 million this year anyway and this locks up 3 free agent years for not much more.  Doc should continue to be one of the best starters in the league and if all goes well, try to start pushing Dave Stieb off the mantle.  With the bullpen improved and Halladay locked up long-term, I’d still reduce his workload into the 220 innings range.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 22, 2004 at 09:14 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RJ in TO Posted: December 11, 2001 at 01:20 AM (#552028)
As a question, can anybody tell me if Heredia is any good? I've seen his numbers, and I know he's only 25, but seeing as how it seems that he's some sort of lefty-specialist at this point, I'm interested in finding out if he has any chance to develop into something bigger.

Not that I'm complaining about the deal. As a Toronto fan, I have become incredibly sick of hearing about Gonzales "incredible defense", while completely ignoring his inability to make contact, draw a walk, or improve as a hitter in any meaningful way, for the low price of 5M a year. And while Gonzales is probably a better player than I think he is (What with those hometown goggles on), I don't think that his performance nearly justified the stupid contract Gord Ash gave him, especially with the pile of supposedly major league prospects that the Jays have at the middle-infield slots.
   2. RJ in TO Posted: December 11, 2001 at 01:51 AM (#552030)
I thought we had Plesac for one more season. When did he announce the retirement?
   3. Robert Dudek Posted: December 11, 2001 at 02:10 PM (#552041)
It would be nice to have another starter, but Carpenter, Halladay, Lyon, Sirotka and whoever should be okay.

JP has to concentrate on the offense. The trade with Oakland was also accompanied by designating Alberto Castillo for assignment, which is great news because it increases the likelihood that Josh Phelps will be on the 25-man roster. It would be nice to see what he can do with 250 PA or so.
   4. Robert Dudek Posted: December 11, 2001 at 02:38 PM (#552042)
I think Alex CUBS Gonzalez is a little better than most statheads make him out to be. Of course he isn't worth nearly the amount of money he'll be paid the next 3 years, but he is good defensively.

The problem as I see it is that he is approaching that age where most shortstops lose a lot of their defensive value. He is definitely not the same defensive player he was at 24 - before the shoulder injury.

I'll be shocked if Felipe Lopez (assuming he stays healthy enough to play regularly) doesn't hit better this year than Alex did last year.
   5. David Geiser Posted: December 11, 2001 at 03:24 PM (#552044)
The value of this trade depends on who the PTBNL is. Heredia's reputation in Chicago was shot; one can argue that he had no chance and was never given one as a Cub, but it was pretty clear that he needs a fresh start someplace else. Whether the Cubs could have turned him into something more valuable than a three year contract for Alex Gonzalez is doubtful, and 1.) the Cubs do need a SS and 2.) I think Gonzalez is likely to get better and 3.) I think Gonzalez will remain tradeable despite the contract. Working with Jeff Pentland might help Gonzalez break his Shawon Dunston ceiling. The fact that Heredia might be de-programmable into a useful player in Toronto means little to the Cubs, because that wasn't going to happen in Chicago, particularly with Baylor managing.

Trading Heredia for Gonzalez works well for both teams, in all likelihood. Trading Heredia and a good prospect is a very bad deal for the Cubs. Trading Heredia and, say, Joe Girardi is a great deal for the Cubs. So it depends on who the PTBNL is.
   6. Jason Robar Posted: December 11, 2001 at 03:43 PM (#552045)
Jim, the Jays were recently sold to Rogers Communications Inc., a very large media company in Canada. They aren't looking to sell right now, but they are facing "the harsh realities" of MLB and are going to cut their payroll slightly.

Of course Ricciardi is also showing some intelligence by jettisoning the right salaries (Gonzalez, Koch). And the Jays are still saying that they will have a payroll around $70-75 million, so this isn't a fire sale. (Of course, if you listen to the Toronto media, this is the equivalent to what the Expos have done for the last 10 years.)

BTW, there's one rumor in Toronto of a Raul Mondesi for Glendon Rusch and Matt Lawton deal. I find that one a bit strange unless it means another outfielder is going in a seperate deal.

Jason
   7. Jason Robar Posted: December 11, 2001 at 05:52 PM (#552047)
Craig, the point's moot since Lawton seems to be on his way to the Indians, but I would guess that Lawton would be more along the lines of a JP-type player. Jose Cruz seemed to regress last year, but probably is at his highest market value (with his high average and career marks across the board). If you can move him for a bigger piece of the puzzle (a stop gap second baseman?), while not losing anything in the outfield, why not do it?

Jason
   8. Stevens Posted: December 11, 2001 at 06:31 PM (#552048)
Just an observation: have you ever seen a trade more heralded for who each team lost? Seems like Toronto fans are dancing in the streets for losing Gonzalez, just like Cubs fans are for losing Heredia. The PTBNL is a rumored "mid-level prospect" whatever that means. Probably not Girardi. Hopefully not another Eric Hinske, oringally from the Cubs system.
   9. David Geiser Posted: December 12, 2001 at 03:02 PM (#552052)
If the Jays want to use Heredia as a LH specialist, then good luck, because I think that is what ruined him. It's hard to learn command and build confidence - problems one and two for Heredia - facing two batters a week. Heredia needed far more work than that role provided. The Jays would be wise to give him a long relief role.

Amusingly, the Cubs picked up Jesus Sanchez, basically Felix Heredia's evil twin (or maybe Felix is the evil one), for Nate Teut. So really the trade comes down to Teut and a PTBNL for Gonzalez. Again, depends on who the PTBNL is. I just threw out Girardi's name as someone the Cubs would do well to dump. Fortunately, their system is lacking in the sorts of pseudo-prospects the Cubs usually have. Mid-level prospect? The Cubs thought of Ruben Quevedo as mid-level, so I'm nervous.

Pentland had more than one success story early on. Henry Rodriguez showed a big spike in plate discipline, as did Gutierrez at first. He really has had precious little to work with. Gonzalez has the skills, and if he could double his walk rate he'd probably improve in every way.

Bellhorn isn't seen as much of an option at SS. The Cubs do have a number of pretty decent SS in their system, but none is likely to be on the horizon until at least 2004, so Gonzalez' current contract isn't going to be much of a factor in blocking them.
   10. Big Ed Posted: December 12, 2001 at 03:25 PM (#552053)
A report I saw (and I am not vouching for the accuracy -- I think it was in the Daily Herald, Chicago suburban rag) said the PTBNL is not on the 40-man roster, so it's not Girardi.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 12, 2001 at 05:43 PM (#552054)
Jesus Sanchez is a year older than Heredia, and his rate stats before this year were uniformly worse. He gives up more homers and walks per nine innings, and collects fewer strikeouts. They might be twins, but if they are, they aren't identical ones.

Heredia has done better work outside the situational lefty role than in it, and the Jays would do well to give him multi-inning appearances.
   12. Robert Dudek Posted: December 13, 2001 at 09:33 PM (#552135)
Looks like Ricciardi didn't think much of Voros' idea of putting Luis Lopez at 2B.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2001 at 10:01 PM (#552138)
Tom Wilson is one of Voros' favorites, too. I also think that Wilson would be a poor fit with Phelps, Werth, and Lawrence waiting in the wings (I like Werth the best, I think).
   14. RJ in TO Posted: December 13, 2001 at 10:44 PM (#552139)
There was also some strange talk coming out of the Blue Jays a while ago about using Fletcher as a part time DH if they can't move him. Besides, even if they bring in Wilson, I can't exactly see it being a deal for longer than one year, and there is always the option to just send him back to the minors.
   15. Robert Dudek Posted: December 13, 2001 at 11:21 PM (#552140)
I agree with Ryan...

I think that Wilson would be a great stop-gap - that would allow them to phase out Fletcher and go with a three-headed catching monster: Phelps, Wilson and Fletcher (if they can't trade him). Eventually, Phelps will become the number 1 (maybe in 2003) and by then Werth will be the solid #2 or perhaps trade bait.

I've got no confidence that Lawrence will get his career turned around - his numbers the last few years have been awful.

Having Tom Wilson catch 50 games would give the Jays' offense a huge boost over what Castillo did the last few years (Jorge Fabergas has nothing on good old Alberto).
   16. Robert Dudek Posted: December 13, 2001 at 11:55 PM (#552057)
Jim Deschaine played SS-3B-Of for the Florida State Daytona Cubs. Drafted out of college player (drafted in 10th round, 1999) and has moved slowly, so despite being 24 has only played 4 games above A ball.

Basically he's done at A+ level what Hinske did at AAA: draw walks, hit for a decent average and hit with some power. Hinske is only a month and a half older. Deschaine's year with the bat was very similar to what Hinske did in 1999 when he was at Daytona (before the A's got him).

Deschaine could eventually be a decent utility infielder, but his late start and slow progress mean that the odds are stacked against him. He has quality minor league vet written all over him.
   17. John Posted: December 14, 2001 at 12:46 AM (#552141)
Does anyone know anything about a catcher named Izzy Molina who played for Syracuse this year? He hit .305/.353/.578 in 256 AAA at-bats. Is he a 29-year-old minor league veteran who just had a career year, or what?
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2001 at 04:04 AM (#552183)
Izturis is quite a bit better than Cora, in my judgment. He's an outstanding defender who's been pushed through the chain pretty fast, playing a full season at AAA at age 20. That MLE at 21 is still 25 points of OPS higher than Cora posted in 2001, and Isturis is going to have better years than that.

I also don't think Prokopec is as good as many other people apparently do. His strikeout rate isn't exceptionally good, and he's a fly-ball pitcher (0.72 G/F ratio, 27 longballs in 138 1/3 innings in Dodger in 2001) moving into a less favorable environment for a pitcher of his type.

The Dodgers have lots of reasons to like this deal.

-- MWE
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2001 at 04:33 AM (#552184)
I'm not all that impressed with Prokopec either; he doesn't have a ton of stuff, but he certainly has more future upside than Quantrill does. Cora was really bad, but he also was in a pretty bad environment for a hitter and isn't exactly Jeff Blauser defensively. Still looks to me like six of one, a half dozen of the other.
   20. Robert Dudek Posted: December 14, 2001 at 08:51 AM (#552186)
I think Prokopec has a chance to be a very good starting pitcher. Izturis is obviously not as good a prospect as Felipe Lopez and will not likelyhit enough to play 2B. A very good deal for the Jays.
   21. VegasRobb Posted: December 14, 2001 at 03:33 PM (#552187)
Teams usually don't trade good young pitching and Prokopec's name was being tossed about in trade rumors nonstop. It's not as if the Dodgers have a surplus of pitching to work from. It seems as though this was a case of trying to strike while the iron was hot and get what you could for a player who performed better than expected.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2001 at 07:31 PM (#552142)
<pre>
   23. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 14, 2001 at 09:26 PM (#552188)
From a Jays perspective, I don't like this deal. Ricketts is going to be 27, but he is a relatively good reliever... like Steve, I think Quantrill for Ricketts is a wash at best.

I happen to like Izturis, because I'm in love with his defense, but it doesn't escape the fact that he has a pretty bad bat right now. His numbers, as I've pointed out elsewhere, have been dragged down something awful over the last two years by incompetence against lefthanders. I'd like to think, against my better judgment, that something could be done to fix that, perhaps by having him bat lefty all the time, or maybe he's just learning to hit lefties because he's only beginning to see lefties. Cesar can _really_ flash the glove, and he doesn't just have time to improve the bat; he'll improve with the glove too. He still also needs to learn to take a walk.

Prokopec makes me nervous:

NL Average : 6.99 Ks per 9 innings
   24. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 14, 2001 at 09:53 PM (#552143)
If you need to go with three catchers, then Wilson is definitely your man. I'm not convinced that we've seen the last of Darrin Fletcher. I know he's going to be 35 and that's looong in the tooth for a receiver, but he had improved his numbers at 32 and 33. Last year he fell off the table; it's certainly worth finding out if he can get back on it. Trade the guy now and you're doing it when his value is lowest.

If Fletcher can split time with Phelps and has, say, 150 ABs and has even a .450 SLG (not out of range) by the break, you can get a fair amount of value for him.

I hate seeing teams carry three catchers if your first two guys have well-rounded games... certainly if you have Buck "I need seven relievers" Martinez in the dugout.

DF's ten most similar at Age 34, averaged performance at Age 35:

88 G, 272 AB, 74 H (=.270 AVG), 29 BB, .403 SLG, 69 G at catcher.

The Jays could probably use that "averaged" player this year, in my book. What's interesting is that this group of players lost a lot of homerun power in their mid-30s... Fletcher's HR decline last year is somewhat typical, if slightly exaggerated.
   25. Robert Dudek Posted: December 14, 2001 at 10:14 PM (#552144)
I think going with 3 catchers is okay, if the two "backups" can hit. You can DH them occasionally and pinch-hit. If you have 3 catchers and Fletch has a day off, you can use him as a pinch-hitter for the 2B if need to without risking your catching defense. Wilson would definitely be able to pinch hit.

And no team should go the whole season with 13 position players and 12 pitchers - that is ridiculous.
   26. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2001 at 10:55 PM (#552145)
I can see why Buck went with that many relievers last year though, because the Jays starting pitching was both horrible and inconsistant, until September. With Loaiza, Hamilton, Parris, Michalak, Carpenter, et al. taking turns barely getting through 3 inning starts, the Jays always seemed to need an extra couple bodies out in the bullpen.

With that being said, if they go with 12 pitchers again this year with the present batch of starting options, I would be horrified.
   27. Robert Dudek Posted: December 15, 2001 at 01:16 AM (#552146)
You know, considering we started 2001 with the rotation you mentioned, it's almost a miracle that our pitching was in the top 5 in the league - thanks mostly to Halladay and Escobar landing in the rotation.
   28. Robert Dudek Posted: December 15, 2001 at 12:37 PM (#552192)
Orel Hershiser and Kevin Brown come to mind.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2001 at 07:48 PM (#552193)
Ciprian, thanks for the info. Prokopec is a pitcher I hadn't seen before he reached the majors; being an east coast guy who sees mostly east coast minor leagues, there's a built in east coast prospect observation bias here.
   30. Colin Posted: January 11, 2002 at 04:35 PM (#552562)
Probably better than what the Braves got from first base and left field...
   31. JB Posted: January 18, 2002 at 02:29 AM (#552865)
I wonder if this actually means that Stewart is going to slide into the DH spot, unless another trade's coming.
   32. Dylan Posted: January 18, 2002 at 02:51 AM (#552867)
His career ML numbers don't look great.
   33. Alan Posted: January 18, 2002 at 04:23 AM (#552870)
If Syd Thrift was in Ricciardi's place in this trade, we'd all re ripping into him right now.
   34. Mike Posted: January 18, 2002 at 04:56 AM (#552871)
Of all the deals Ricciardi has made, this looks most like a salary dump. Fullmer seems like the kind of player for whom a clever GM could get more than fair value from a less-than-clever GM. He is a semi-name and a quasi-RBI man. Does not really make the Jays better, does not make them appreciably worse.
   35. Robert Dudek Posted: January 18, 2002 at 07:52 AM (#552875)
I don't really think much of this trade, but Fullmer doesn't appear to be much more than a marginal player. One reason to trade Fullmer now is that his trade value would drop if the Jays acquired Cust. I think that Ricciardi is still trying to get Cust and this clears space for him. Perhaps some sort of deal involving Mondesi and Cust is in the works.

If that happenened then the Jays would have:

DH Cust, 1B Delgado, 2b Bush/Hudson, SS FLopez, 3B Hinske, RF Cruz, CF Wells, LF Stewart, C Fletcher/Wilson

That's a lot of youngsters in the lineup, so I wouldn't expect too much out of them. I think Ricciardi will be looking to build a high-octane offense for 2003.

I don't think it's productive to look at trades individually. Instead, we should try to evaluate all the off-season moves together - and I don't think Ricciardi is done yet.
   36. Christopher Posted: January 18, 2002 at 08:05 AM (#552876)
As an Angel fan I really like this deal. Fullmer's entering his age 27 season and he still has that 2000 potential. I see Cooper as AAA to 5th Starter material.

With regard to Riccardi, he's certainly dumped the Jays who have detractors on this site. But, what has he brought in? Felix Heredia, Luke Prokopec, Justin Miller and Eric Hinske. Only Prokopec strikes me a guy who could really stand out. Maybe this is unwarranted criticism and he's just been told to shed salary quickly. Either way I think one offseason is too short an interval to judge a GM.
   37. J. Cross Posted: January 18, 2002 at 06:54 PM (#552884)
Whether Ricciardi plans to use Phelps or trade for someone like Cust he needed to trade Fullmer. Since Fullmer is incapable of playing first he's forced to trade him to an AL team. How many AL teams do you think were interested in a marginal DH making $3.7M ?? Also, it might look pretty bad to Jays fans to trade Fullmer within the division for a "prospect."

I agree that we're too quick to say that Beane or Ricciardi made a great deal regardless of what they did, but it's tough to really knock this deal because the Blue Jays cut salary and didn't hurt themselves. And I really doubt that Fullmer had any trade value to speak of.
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2002 at 06:59 PM (#552885)
I think you guys are way overestimating the current market value of Fullmer. Maybe if they traded Fullmer before 2001, they could have received something better in return, but I don't think Cooper is a complete zero at all; in fact, I'd be much quicker to write off mediocre hitting prospects than bad pitching prospects and Cooper isn't a bad one. Fullmer is hardly a hot young player; he's perceived as a guy who had a fluky 2000 season and is very difficult to coach.
   39. Geoff Young Posted: January 18, 2002 at 07:03 PM (#552886)
Cooper is alright, but couldn't you have asked for Lackey or Bootcheck?

For Fullmer? I know the Angels aren't the sharpest organization around but this isn't Cam Bonifay we're talking about here. My guess is that Riccardi was smart enough not to offend the Angels by making an offer for one of those guys. He probably should've gotten more than Brian Meadows, er, Cooper, but if the goal was simply to get rid of Fullmer, he could've done worse.
   40. Buddha Posted: January 18, 2002 at 11:00 PM (#552888)
Of course, Ed, even if there were a market for Tony Clark, Randy Smith would give him away for nothing. Either that or Brad Ausmus but some of us would argue that there isn't much of a difference.
   41. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 19, 2002 at 03:07 AM (#552890)
John Carter sez:

I mean, I can understand the reluctance to jump him from AA to the majors, but the MLEs say he can do the job, and Ricciardi, as we know, takes that kind of evidence seriously ...

How do we know that he does, yet? We know that he accepts (or appears to accept) some of the so-called "sabermetric tenets", but it's not yet been demonstrated that MLEs are among them. It would be a good idea to wait and see who the Jays actually put on the field before coming to this conclusion.

-- MWE
   42. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 19, 2002 at 07:22 PM (#552892)
One more thing...

Ricciardi believes in the power of walks. Fullmer has acquired a reputation as both a batter who doesn't draw many walks and (as was previously noted) a guy who's not very easy to coach. Fullmer's walk rates the last 4 years (numbers in parens are unintentional walk rates):
   43. Voros McCracken Posted: January 22, 2002 at 02:26 AM (#552893)
I really don't get what the Blue Jays were up to here besides dumping salary. If they had the option, I would have much rather the Jays go after someone like Matt Wise or Bart Miadich from them.

I don't much like Cooper at all and i think the Jays already have plenty of guys both in the rotation and bullpen who are better than he is.

As for Fullmer, considering the Blue Jays new option for Dh is now Vernon Wells (sort of) if Jose Cruz Jr. had more value on the trade market than Fullmer, than Cruz should have been moved instead. It seems to me Fullmer is just about as good a hitter as Cruz [(.333/.473) for Cruz's career to (.329/.480) for Fullmer's] and since Wells is supposedly a very good defensive CFer, the defensive gap (admittedly large) doesn't make much of a difference.

Better still, would have been to trade Vernon Wells if his Trade Market Value is as high as I think it is. I realize he's still very young, and will probably be a pretty good player, but i can't help thinking that his minor league numbers right now look a lot more like Chris Singleton than Ken Griffey jr. Now a 23 year old about as good as Chris Singleton isn't a bad player to have around (due to the fact that at 27, he'll probably be pretty good), but I think I'd rather
   44. Voros McCracken Posted: January 22, 2002 at 02:28 AM (#552894)
Oh by the way for any Angels fans out there:

Does this spell the end of any outside shot for playing time for Jeff DaVanon?

Until Fullmer came here, I thought DaVanon might be one of the 1B/DHs by default, despite being a good outfielder.

Now it looks as if that's done.
   45. Robert Dudek Posted: January 22, 2002 at 03:58 PM (#552896)
Voros wrote:"As for Fullmer, considering the Blue Jays new option for Dh is now Vernon Wells (sort of) if Jose Cruz Jr. had more value on the trade market than Fullmer, than Cruz should have been moved instead. It seems to me Fullmer is just about as good a hitter as Cruz [(.333/.473) for Cruz's career to (.329/.480) for Fullmer's] and since Wells is supposedly a very good defensive CFer, the defensive gap (admittedly large) doesn't make much of a difference."

I think you are looking at this trade in isolation and in the short-term. After the Jays trade Mondesi (and they will when teams start to get desperate in July, or possibly sooner if the right deal comes along) who would play the outfield if you traded Cruz or Wells now? They'd basically be stuck with Mondesi and there isn't a player on the team whose pay to production ratio is higher.

I don't think Cruz will have the speed to play center in a few years, so Wells is likely to be there for the foreseeable future. Cruz will be a good right-fielder, on the other hand. I suspect that prioritizing outfield defense is a good way to improve your staff ERA.

We should also not overlook the possibility that by making this trade, Ricciardi might raise Mondesi's trade value slightly. I think there was a perception that the Jays had to move Mondesi to make room for Wells and that the other GMs were trying to make lowball offers to see if Ricciardi would bite.

I agree that they could have gotten more for Fullmer, but let's face it: he's a born DH and his bat is marginal for the position. Cruz has oodles more value.
   46. SM in DC Posted: May 09, 2002 at 04:37 PM (#556470)
So how Godawful does that Clemens for Wells and Co. move look now? (I know it was trade demand but....)

Lloyd -- Free agent to 'Spos
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 09, 2002 at 07:09 PM (#556472)
At the same time, all that's left for the Pirates from the Merced/Pleasac/Garcia deal is Abraham Nunez (at this point in his career, a replacable utility infielder) and Craig Wilson (an admittedly nice consolation prize). That's one solid but unspectacular major leaguer and one fringe guy; it's not exactly a Larry Andersen/Jeff Bagwell bonanza.
   48. Clyde Posted: May 09, 2002 at 07:17 PM (#556473)
Being a contrary SOB, I for one am hoping that Inge hits.
   49. Cris E Posted: May 10, 2002 at 02:21 PM (#556476)
Is Ken Huckaby related to Gary Huckaby? I've always been faintly curious but never asked...
   50. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 15, 2002 at 06:19 AM (#556483)
Re: DP

Silva is, as ChrisM mentioned, on the Reds' DL. He underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, and God only knows when he'll be healthy again. The other players acquired in the trade all appear to be out of baseball, and none ever made the majors. Brandon Cromer spent some time in the Marlins' organization in 1998, was outrighted to AA, and vanished from that team's transaction log. Cromer was in camp with the Reds in 2000 as an NRI, but got sent to minor-league camp fairly early on. ( http://reds.enquirer.com/2000/03/10/red_griffey_making_habit.html ) He was apparently playing for the Huntsville Stars, the Brewers' affiliate in the Southern League, later that year ( http://www.angelfire.com/sports/starsfan/cromerb.htm ), but I can't find any mention of him anywhere after that. Jose Pett was still in the Pirates' system at the end of 1998, when he was outrighted to Nashville and subsequently disappeared. Mike Halperin never appeared on a transaction log after the trade, and I have no idea where he is or what he's doing.
   51. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 16, 2002 at 02:11 PM (#556592)
The Jays are also paying half of his salary, 800k.
   52. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: May 16, 2002 at 02:42 PM (#556593)
Is 800K his salary, or half his salary?
   53. Repoz Posted: May 16, 2002 at 02:44 PM (#556594)
This years Daryle Ward,OF Jason Lane was sent back to New Orleans to add some magic to his .815 OPS AAA gris-gris,to make room for Borbon.
   54. Dylan Posted: May 16, 2002 at 04:21 PM (#556595)
His salary is 1.6m. The Jays pay half .8m
   55. Dylan Posted: May 16, 2002 at 05:25 PM (#556597)
What I heard was that it would be a player from AA or A. Riccardi has said "We're not going to get one of their best prospects" "We have to do a little digging."
   56. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 16, 2002 at 08:28 PM (#556599)
Sorry. Borbon's salary is indeed 1.6 mil, and that could have been phrased better.

It doesn't seem like there's much trade interest in relievers ATM (Steve Phillips' overpaying for Scott Strickland notwithstanding). Oakland's been stuck with three lefties since the start of the season, the Pirates had to option Mike Lincoln because they couldn't convince anyone to trade for any of their relievers, and Antonio Alfonseca brought next to nothing (even for a mediocre closer) when traded to the Cubs.
   57. MattB Posted: May 16, 2002 at 08:40 PM (#556600)
Blue Jays new pitching motto:

"What we lack in quality, we make up for by lack of quantity."

or

"11 bad pitchers must be better than 12 bad pitchers."
   58. Robert Dudek Posted: May 16, 2002 at 10:25 PM (#556603)
Now all we need to do is figure out a way to get Cassidy and Eyre off the roster. The pitching is rounding into shape.

Advice to Buck: if you find a reliever who has his good stuff it might be a good idea for him to face more than 1 or 2 batters.
   59. Robert Dudek Posted: May 16, 2002 at 10:41 PM (#556604)
By my count, only 15 players on the 25-man roster are "pre-Ricciardi" (including the soon to be activated Stewart, but not including the other DL'ed players).

Newcomers:

Pitchers: Prokopec, Miller, Thurman, Walker, Heredia
   60. MattB Posted: May 17, 2002 at 01:29 PM (#556609)
Robert Dudek wrote:

"Newcomers:

Pitchers: Prokopec, Miller, Thurman, Walker, Heredia"

All doing very well (comparatively) except for Prokopec, who once again did not provide a quality start last night. What's wrong with the North of the Border Northpaw from Down Under?

I looked at his stats from last year and this year, prorating last year's to a comparable number of innings (multiplied by .275).

Home Runs: 2001: 7.4; 2002: 8
   61. MattB Posted: May 17, 2002 at 01:54 PM (#556611)
Matthew,

Historically yes. 2001, not so much.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2001.shtml

One year blip? New reality? Effects of currency fluctuations?

2002 stats probably meaningless so far. The Blue Jays have sucked at home in only a few series, which can throw off the numbers.
   62. Dylan Posted: May 17, 2002 at 01:58 PM (#556612)
Skydome is a fairly neutral park, but it gives up a large amount of extra base hits. Considering that only one of the 4 outfielders has above average range(Wells), I would be willing to say that the answer to Prokopec's troubles is 3.
   63. Benji Posted: May 17, 2002 at 03:05 PM (#556613)
Vlad, thanks for saying what the NY press refuses to say, that the Mets overpaid for Strickland...the Post keeps quoting an "unnamed GM" who cries that Phillips robbed the Expos...Steve, the jig is up...we know you're the "unnamed GM"...who would hide behind anonymity in this case? the Braves, the Yankees, the Marlins? of course not...to make this charge, you want to make it publicly so your fans will think you're "fighting for them"...but those GMs aren't stupid enough to see this trade as anything but one-sided for Montreal.
   64. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 17, 2002 at 04:18 PM (#556614)
As I recall, the "unnamed GM" was complaining because he hadn't gotten a chance to deal for Strickland and he thought Minaya was either 1)being too nice to his old boss or 2)dumping talent as start of a fire sale. Because of the stupid Montreal situation, it's easy to question anything Minaya does. If I had to guess, though, I'd attribute the quotes to Ed Wade trying to cover how bad HIS Bruce Chen trade was by making Chen look like a stiff.

Oh, Strickland's numbers with the Mets: 2-1, 1 Save, 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP - According to Prospectus, 4.1 ARP (ironically, that's what Chen has for the 'Spos).

As a Met fan, I didn't like the trade, but I don't think it was ridiculously bad for either team (of course, none of the Mets' starters have gotten hurt yet)
   65. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 17, 2002 at 08:23 PM (#556620)
Just to give the proper credit, David Schoenfeld came up with the "strength-of-schedule" ratings, it just appeared in Stark's column. The real question is whether Schoenfeld is willing to defend his ranking system in an ESPN chat.
   66. MattB Posted: May 20, 2002 at 06:21 PM (#556622)
Individual hitter/pitcher matchup stats likely have a very high probability of being wrong. But if you use them collectively, they can add value over the course of a seaon.

To take it to the extreme, if the manager has a choice of putting up two hitters against a pitcher, one is 0 for 1 against him and the other is 1 for 1 against him, we'd all agree that deciding to use to second player because of his past record is meaningless.

But, if over the course of a season, the manager ALWAYS picks the 1 for 1 guy in 100 different situations where he is faced with the identical choice, he will, overall, pick the better hitter more often than not, because the better hitter against that pitcher will be more likely to be 1 for 1.

The problem is that people look at individual matchups and say (verbatim), "That manager is an idiot. He's leaving in the lefty against the lefty pitcher because he's 5 for 11 against him lifetime. Small sample size fallacy." Well, yes, it's a dumb decision if you only do it once. But over the course of dozens of 5 for 11s, there will be a distinct advantage for the guy who goes for the matchup.
   67. Brian Posted: May 28, 2002 at 07:49 PM (#556846)
Politte's a short guy, so it seemed like he never really fit into the Phillies plans as the Phillies are fixated on the Dallas Green big man pitcher mold. He's got a good fastball in the low 90s. He had an arm injury last spring, but he appears to be completely recovered. He's pitched well whenever called upon. He does walk a too few many batters.
   68. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 29, 2002 at 01:27 AM (#556848)
Did they ever fix the crack in Green's "big man pitcher mold"? You know the one I mean, the one right by the elbow...
   69. Greg Franklin Posted: May 31, 2002 at 12:37 AM (#556856)
"hoernjo01" is Joe Hoerner, the only pre-1980s reliever in the Top 20. The proto-short man?
   70. Klobedanz Posted: June 04, 2002 at 02:32 PM (#556916)
Also being a Ricmondite, I concur w/ the post above. In the 20 games or so I saw Tosca manage I saw nothing to suggest that he and Ricciardi will be on the same page, and nothing to suggest that Tosca will be a very good manager. I was actually shocked that he was coaching in the majors, the 2001 R-Braves was a pretty ugly deal.
   71. Klobedanz Posted: June 04, 2002 at 07:54 PM (#556919)
But can't you have a manager w/ leadership & experience, and a more progressive philosophy? Aren't there some out there? Why wouldn't you want both.
   72. Klobedanz Posted: June 05, 2002 at 01:38 PM (#556921)
Aww man, I had forgotten about Mike Glavine, nothing worse than having your DH come up and the scoreboard shows he is batting .181 w/ 1 HR. I am glad to see that "favor" to Tom was sent packing.
   73. Klobedanz Posted: June 06, 2002 at 03:49 PM (#556924)
Yes, with the scintillating Unroe and the world renowned basher Ozzie Timmons, we have quite a team.

Actually, I like Bo Porter for some reason.
   74. J. Michael Neal Posted: July 27, 2002 at 03:50 AM (#557989)
My memories of Darrin Fletcher will probably be a lot more positive than a lot of folks around here, because I watch a fair amount of Big 10 baseball. When he was at Illinois, he was an absolute stud. I still don't think that he should have been 1st team all conference in 1987, because Dan Wilson was even better (and there's a real story of Bud Middaugh, then coach at Michigan, being a complete flaming %$^#$@^ during the voting), but Fletcher was really damned good, and the cornerstone of a very good Illini team.

At this point, the Blue Jays are better off bidding adieu, but Fletcher impressed the hell out of me.
   75. Repoz Posted: July 27, 2002 at 08:54 PM (#557993)
There really is no sense in Darrin Fletcher returning,seeing that he passed Ken Phelps on the career HR list (Fletcher-124..Phelps-123)dropping Phelps to #470 on the All Time board.

That in itself is enough to rest upon.
   76. Repoz Posted: October 10, 2002 at 02:56 PM (#559000)
I'm also surprised with the release Carpenter,maybe a switch over to the always catfishing Cincy Reds,where Don Gullet could do his thing.
   77. Dylan Posted: October 10, 2002 at 03:46 PM (#559001)
Also Luke Prokopec, Chad Ricketts, Chris Baker and Reed Johnson were removed from the 40 man roster as well.

Carpenter is not expected to be able to pitch until Aug or Sept. And who knows about Sirotka. A minor league deal is probally the only thing either pitcher could get right now.
   78. Darren Posted: October 10, 2002 at 03:58 PM (#559002)
What was the inspiration for moving Lyon? Did they need to get someone else onto the 40?

Matthew, it's kind of nice that Sirotka thinks he owes the Jays something, but I don't think he does. He did as well as he could for the time he was with the team. He didn't trade himself there for Wells. If Sirotka had been the Cy Young, do you think the Jays would have felt they owed him more than his salary for those years?
   79. Darren Posted: October 10, 2002 at 03:59 PM (#559003)
Dan,

How about some MLEs for Lyon?
   80. Dylan Posted: October 10, 2002 at 08:16 PM (#559007)
After all of these moves the Jays only have 4 open spots on the 40 man roster. Factor in Parris, Loaiza, Heredia, and Lesher, that would leave 8 open spots to protect players from the Rule V draft. Quiroz and Chulk will be added, likly Bauer, Fagan not to mention claiming other teams player who are waived as well. I'm guessing J.P. thought that Lyon would slip through this early in the offseason, but doesn't consider him a big loss.
   81. Darren Posted: October 11, 2002 at 04:18 AM (#559011)
<I>
   82. Dylan Posted: October 11, 2002 at 06:24 PM (#559013)
The dropping of players hasn't stopped yet. Cassiday, Lesher, Swann, Chacin and Wiggens were all outrighted to Syracuse and Orleski was claimed by the Mets. That leaves 10 open spots on the 40-man with Loaiza, Parris and Heredia still to declare FA. It seems to me that 13 possible open spots are alot. I can't see more then 8 players that would need to be protected for the Rule V, and exactly how many (minor/major)free agents will they sign.
   83. Gideon Posted: October 11, 2002 at 07:07 PM (#559014)
I saw Lyon pitcher earlier this year at a Skychiefs-Lynx game here in Ottawa (and may I say again how little I'm looking forward to the 2003 Ottawa Orioles), and I'd have to agree with Kent --- Lyon just can't (or won't) throw a good fastball. You can get away with that if you've got Maddux control, but he doesn't. He's got nice movement and decent location, but eventually the batters just sit on the off-speed stuff. He allowed nine runners and two runs in six innings and never seemed in control. He finished 4-9, 5.11 at Syracuse.

All that said, add me to the list of people surprised by the move. Any 23-year-old who's had major-league success would seem to be worth hanging on to. And if he is in fact a Quantrill clone, why not try moving him to the pen: it made Q a millionaire. Assuming there's no personality or other issue we're not aware of, I do find this one questionable. I worry a little that JP considers marginal or still-developing talent to be wholly expendable, and I've had that worry ever since the Brad Fullmer trade (which, granted, was primarily for salary and roster reasons).

I agree that Carpenter and Sirotka will probably sign minor-league deals, but frankly they seem little more than back-of-the-rotation prospects now. Anything else on the way? Pasqual Coco seems to have plateaued at Triple-A, and Mike Smith is already just a six-inning starter there. Chulk is very promising at AA, but after that, you're down to A ball with Francisco Rosario, Dave Gassner, Dustin McGowan et al. Dunedin will be a busy place next spring; the surfeit of open 40-man spots tells me they're planning a whole lot of minor-league channel-surfing this winter.
   84. Darren Posted: October 12, 2002 at 05:18 PM (#559015)
Sickels, in his 2001 book, said Lyon has good off speed and breaking pitches and that his fastball was in the 90-92 range. That's plenty for a guy with other good pitches.
   85. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: October 30, 2002 at 05:13 AM (#559099)
He strikes out a lot of guys. Creek's problem has always been his control... there have been suggestions that he has controlled this in the last two or three years, but the number don't bear it out.

What is problematic is not so much the walks, but that he gives up so many damn home runs. He's not going to find SkyDome very congenial. He has had some small successes in the minors despite the walks, because he doesn't get jacked nearly as much there. (In fact, Creek could be another Scott Cassidy, a pitcher who just gets homered on too much to feel safe having him pitch at *any* time)

I think this is a lousy signing. I can understand the desire to make it clear to the Toronto faithful that we will not be seeing another repeat of The Great Pitcher Famine of 2002 (those who are not Toronto fans might not understand the depths to which we were scarred by the early-season rotation). But signing Doug Creek now just means you don't sign him for half that in February, and that seems a lot of money just to make Toronto fans feel secure that we won't see any more of Mike Smith or Brian Cooper.

Any other Blue Jay fans know if Bob File is going to be back next year?
   86. Gideon Posted: October 30, 2002 at 03:37 PM (#559102)
Count me among the baffled on this. Not only is he a LOOGY, he's an aging LOOGY who's getting worse by the season. I thought this was the point of nabbing Jason Kershner in September. All I can imagine is (a) they think they can help Creek regain his 2001 form, and (b) they think they can flip him at the trading deadline for something useful. Neither of these things justifies a guaranteed contract; Creek is the epitome of the spring-training invitee.

I am a huge JP fan, but he gets no more free rides on questionable decisions. This is an Allard Baird-type of move. There, I said it.
   87. Ken Arneson Posted: October 30, 2002 at 03:56 PM (#559103)
The A's signed Mike Holtz to a two-year contract last year. This is a Billy Beane-type of move! And even better, unlike the A's, the Jays have the option on the second year! What genius!
   88. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2002 at 09:02 PM (#559108)
At least there's enough demand for lefty relievers around the league to leave some trade possibilities open during the season

But this wasn't really true last year. There were a lot of teams last spring trying to move lefties with no success, frequently cutting them a month or two into the season. Some were moved at the trade deadline, but I can't think of one that brought anything substantial in return.

This one gets filed under incomprehensible but inconsequential.
   89. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 30, 2002 at 11:25 PM (#559109)
Here's all the LHRP trades I could think of for the last year or so (there are probably more); it's a pretty mixed bag, as you might expect.

Last year, Ricardo Rincon was traded to Oakland for Marshall McDougall, an old-ish AAA middle infielder with some pop and patience, who might turn into a nice Russ Johnson-style utility infielder.

Jeff Fassero was traded to the Cardinals for cash and two minor-league PsTBNL (I'm not sure whether they have since been specified or not).

Alan Embree was traded to the Red Sox with Andy Shibilo for Dan Giese and Brad Baker. Baker is a decent prospect and a former first-round pick, while Giese and Shibilo are minor-league relievers.

The Mariners acquired Doug Creek for $$.

Rich Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers during spring training for a PTBNL.

John Bale was traded to the NY Mets for Gary Matthews, Jr, during spring training.

Also during spring training, Juan Moreno was traded to San Diego for Jason Moore, a minor-league SS whose prospect star has fallen in recent years (good glove, no hit).

Last offseason, Mark Guthrie was traded to the NY Mets for David Justice, in a deal that worked out pretty well for the A's.

Two years ago, Terry Mulholland brought the Pirates Mike Fetters (who was himself traded for Duaner Sanchez this year) and Adrian Burnside.
   90. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: November 01, 2002 at 01:52 AM (#559114)
For a Phillies fan the only good part about seeing Trever Miller's name again is that he's already been a Phillie, so the Blue Jays won't be trading him to the Phils for Brad Baisley.

Crispix, you have WAY too much faith in Ed Wade.
   91. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: November 01, 2002 at 10:03 PM (#559176)
Speculate on hypothetical AAA cannon-fodder for a team I don't even follow? Only in November would I even bother to answer the question.

That answer (confirming my tenuous hold on sanity) is "no."
   92. Rick A. Posted: November 01, 2002 at 10:16 PM (#559178)
I could see him getting Dave Eiland or Wally Whitehurst. (Are they still pitching?)
   93. rlc Posted: November 01, 2002 at 10:19 PM (#559179)
Chris -

You're thinking of Doug Johns.
   94. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: November 02, 2002 at 01:06 AM (#559181)
On a Jays tangent, their AFL guys are playing really poorly... five of the six are not performing. Shawn Fagan is hitting OK, but at 24 he's a grandpa in this setup.

Gabe Gross is striking out at a nifty 30% clip, and is hitting 230/304/344. Scott Wiggins, who at 26, should be dominating, has been just OK... he's been closing games. Kevin Cash hasn't hit; I haven't heard about defense. Mike Rouse has hardly played and hasn't hit. The D-Rays have two shortstops on the same team apparently ahead of him in Jace Brewer and Jorge Cantu, naturally non-prospect Brewer is getting the PT and prospects Cantu and Rouse get to sit. Cantu is on the taxi squad and has more PT than Rouse... maybe he was hurt.

On an unrelated note...

Even thinking about Jace Brewer makes me mad. A 23-year-old in A ball with an 11/62 K/W ratio and you think he's a better prospect than a 20-year-old in AA with twice as many walks? Predictably, they promoted Brewer and played him ahead of Cantu in AA, and a swell 213/240/265 line was the result in 150 PA. So they send him to Arizona to play ahead of the young kid and the other prospect (Rouse is a year younger than Brewer and hit 262/346/425 in the Southern League... about 260 points of OPS on Brewer).

I guess that's why the Devil Rays are the Devil Rays.

Then I saw who the manager was for the team (Grand Canyon) - Lenn Sakata.

WAY TO GO SAKATA, YOU JUST SCREWED US AGAIN.
   95. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: November 02, 2002 at 01:11 AM (#559182)
Just to clarify my previous post - Cantu hit much better than Brewer at Orlando, but not that great. Good for a 20-year old, though.
   96. NTNgod Posted: November 02, 2002 at 06:52 AM (#559183)
Jace Brewer signed a major league contract when he came out of Baylor, though. Clock's a ticking...

Add Jeff Tam to the Bluejay stockpile as well (I haven't seen anyone mention him that I can see - unless I missed something)
   97. Gideon Posted: November 06, 2002 at 09:30 PM (#559189)
Welcome to Blue Jay Oracle.

[Commercial interlude]
   98. Gideon Posted: November 06, 2002 at 10:21 PM (#559191)
Mea culpa, Matthew, a true oversight -- you're quite right, Blue Jay Way is also a terrific site. I humbly suggest that Toronto-based baseball Weblogs lead the majors in both quality and quantity. (Sox Therapy doesn't count. :-))
   99. NTNgod Posted: November 06, 2002 at 10:35 PM (#559192)
Are the Jays the only ones snapping up all these guys? I haven't heard of any other teams doing the same thing.

Well, the DevilRays went on a shopping spree today:
   100. Repoz Posted: November 06, 2002 at 10:44 PM (#559193)
Dan.....No Boston Red Sox signing of free agent Bill James....previously at Free Press Publishing?
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