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Not that I'm complaining about the deal. As a Toronto fan, I have become incredibly sick of hearing about Gonzales "incredible defense", while completely ignoring his inability to make contact, draw a walk, or improve as a hitter in any meaningful way, for the low price of 5M a year. And while Gonzales is probably a better player than I think he is (What with those hometown goggles on), I don't think that his performance nearly justified the stupid contract Gord Ash gave him, especially with the pile of supposedly major league prospects that the Jays have at the middle-infield slots.
JP has to concentrate on the offense. The trade with Oakland was also accompanied by designating Alberto Castillo for assignment, which is great news because it increases the likelihood that Josh Phelps will be on the 25-man roster. It would be nice to see what he can do with 250 PA or so.
The problem as I see it is that he is approaching that age where most shortstops lose a lot of their defensive value. He is definitely not the same defensive player he was at 24 - before the shoulder injury.
I'll be shocked if Felipe Lopez (assuming he stays healthy enough to play regularly) doesn't hit better this year than Alex did last year.
Trading Heredia for Gonzalez works well for both teams, in all likelihood. Trading Heredia and a good prospect is a very bad deal for the Cubs. Trading Heredia and, say, Joe Girardi is a great deal for the Cubs. So it depends on who the PTBNL is.
Of course Ricciardi is also showing some intelligence by jettisoning the right salaries (Gonzalez, Koch). And the Jays are still saying that they will have a payroll around $70-75 million, so this isn't a fire sale. (Of course, if you listen to the Toronto media, this is the equivalent to what the Expos have done for the last 10 years.)
BTW, there's one rumor in Toronto of a Raul Mondesi for Glendon Rusch and Matt Lawton deal. I find that one a bit strange unless it means another outfielder is going in a seperate deal.
Jason
Jason
Amusingly, the Cubs picked up Jesus Sanchez, basically Felix Heredia's evil twin (or maybe Felix is the evil one), for Nate Teut. So really the trade comes down to Teut and a PTBNL for Gonzalez. Again, depends on who the PTBNL is. I just threw out Girardi's name as someone the Cubs would do well to dump. Fortunately, their system is lacking in the sorts of pseudo-prospects the Cubs usually have. Mid-level prospect? The Cubs thought of Ruben Quevedo as mid-level, so I'm nervous.
Pentland had more than one success story early on. Henry Rodriguez showed a big spike in plate discipline, as did Gutierrez at first. He really has had precious little to work with. Gonzalez has the skills, and if he could double his walk rate he'd probably improve in every way.
Bellhorn isn't seen as much of an option at SS. The Cubs do have a number of pretty decent SS in their system, but none is likely to be on the horizon until at least 2004, so Gonzalez' current contract isn't going to be much of a factor in blocking them.
Heredia has done better work outside the situational lefty role than in it, and the Jays would do well to give him multi-inning appearances.
I think that Wilson would be a great stop-gap - that would allow them to phase out Fletcher and go with a three-headed catching monster: Phelps, Wilson and Fletcher (if they can't trade him). Eventually, Phelps will become the number 1 (maybe in 2003) and by then Werth will be the solid #2 or perhaps trade bait.
I've got no confidence that Lawrence will get his career turned around - his numbers the last few years have been awful.
Having Tom Wilson catch 50 games would give the Jays' offense a huge boost over what Castillo did the last few years (Jorge Fabergas has nothing on good old Alberto).
Basically he's done at A+ level what Hinske did at AAA: draw walks, hit for a decent average and hit with some power. Hinske is only a month and a half older. Deschaine's year with the bat was very similar to what Hinske did in 1999 when he was at Daytona (before the A's got him).
Deschaine could eventually be a decent utility infielder, but his late start and slow progress mean that the odds are stacked against him. He has quality minor league vet written all over him.
I also don't think Prokopec is as good as many other people apparently do. His strikeout rate isn't exceptionally good, and he's a fly-ball pitcher (0.72 G/F ratio, 27 longballs in 138 1/3 innings in Dodger in 2001) moving into a less favorable environment for a pitcher of his type.
The Dodgers have lots of reasons to like this deal.
-- MWE
I happen to like Izturis, because I'm in love with his defense, but it doesn't escape the fact that he has a pretty bad bat right now. His numbers, as I've pointed out elsewhere, have been dragged down something awful over the last two years by incompetence against lefthanders. I'd like to think, against my better judgment, that something could be done to fix that, perhaps by having him bat lefty all the time, or maybe he's just learning to hit lefties because he's only beginning to see lefties. Cesar can _really_ flash the glove, and he doesn't just have time to improve the bat; he'll improve with the glove too. He still also needs to learn to take a walk.
Prokopec makes me nervous:
NL Average : 6.99 Ks per 9 innings
If Fletcher can split time with Phelps and has, say, 150 ABs and has even a .450 SLG (not out of range) by the break, you can get a fair amount of value for him.
I hate seeing teams carry three catchers if your first two guys have well-rounded games... certainly if you have Buck "I need seven relievers" Martinez in the dugout.
DF's ten most similar at Age 34, averaged performance at Age 35:
88 G, 272 AB, 74 H (=.270 AVG), 29 BB, .403 SLG, 69 G at catcher.
The Jays could probably use that "averaged" player this year, in my book. What's interesting is that this group of players lost a lot of homerun power in their mid-30s... Fletcher's HR decline last year is somewhat typical, if slightly exaggerated.
And no team should go the whole season with 13 position players and 12 pitchers - that is ridiculous.
With that being said, if they go with 12 pitchers again this year with the present batch of starting options, I would be horrified.
If that happenened then the Jays would have:
DH Cust, 1B Delgado, 2b Bush/Hudson, SS FLopez, 3B Hinske, RF Cruz, CF Wells, LF Stewart, C Fletcher/Wilson
That's a lot of youngsters in the lineup, so I wouldn't expect too much out of them. I think Ricciardi will be looking to build a high-octane offense for 2003.
I don't think it's productive to look at trades individually. Instead, we should try to evaluate all the off-season moves together - and I don't think Ricciardi is done yet.
With regard to Riccardi, he's certainly dumped the Jays who have detractors on this site. But, what has he brought in? Felix Heredia, Luke Prokopec, Justin Miller and Eric Hinske. Only Prokopec strikes me a guy who could really stand out. Maybe this is unwarranted criticism and he's just been told to shed salary quickly. Either way I think one offseason is too short an interval to judge a GM.
I agree that we're too quick to say that Beane or Ricciardi made a great deal regardless of what they did, but it's tough to really knock this deal because the Blue Jays cut salary and didn't hurt themselves. And I really doubt that Fullmer had any trade value to speak of.
For Fullmer? I know the Angels aren't the sharpest organization around but this isn't Cam Bonifay we're talking about here. My guess is that Riccardi was smart enough not to offend the Angels by making an offer for one of those guys. He probably should've gotten more than Brian Meadows, er, Cooper, but if the goal was simply to get rid of Fullmer, he could've done worse.
I mean, I can understand the reluctance to jump him from AA to the majors, but the MLEs say he can do the job, and Ricciardi, as we know, takes that kind of evidence seriously ...
How do we know that he does, yet? We know that he accepts (or appears to accept) some of the so-called "sabermetric tenets", but it's not yet been demonstrated that MLEs are among them. It would be a good idea to wait and see who the Jays actually put on the field before coming to this conclusion.
-- MWE
Ricciardi believes in the power of walks. Fullmer has acquired a reputation as both a batter who doesn't draw many walks and (as was previously noted) a guy who's not very easy to coach. Fullmer's walk rates the last 4 years (numbers in parens are unintentional walk rates):
I don't much like Cooper at all and i think the Jays already have plenty of guys both in the rotation and bullpen who are better than he is.
As for Fullmer, considering the Blue Jays new option for Dh is now Vernon Wells (sort of) if Jose Cruz Jr. had more value on the trade market than Fullmer, than Cruz should have been moved instead. It seems to me Fullmer is just about as good a hitter as Cruz [(.333/.473) for Cruz's career to (.329/.480) for Fullmer's] and since Wells is supposedly a very good defensive CFer, the defensive gap (admittedly large) doesn't make much of a difference.
Better still, would have been to trade Vernon Wells if his Trade Market Value is as high as I think it is. I realize he's still very young, and will probably be a pretty good player, but i can't help thinking that his minor league numbers right now look a lot more like Chris Singleton than Ken Griffey jr. Now a 23 year old about as good as Chris Singleton isn't a bad player to have around (due to the fact that at 27, he'll probably be pretty good), but I think I'd rather
Does this spell the end of any outside shot for playing time for Jeff DaVanon?
Until Fullmer came here, I thought DaVanon might be one of the 1B/DHs by default, despite being a good outfielder.
Now it looks as if that's done.
I think you are looking at this trade in isolation and in the short-term. After the Jays trade Mondesi (and they will when teams start to get desperate in July, or possibly sooner if the right deal comes along) who would play the outfield if you traded Cruz or Wells now? They'd basically be stuck with Mondesi and there isn't a player on the team whose pay to production ratio is higher.
I don't think Cruz will have the speed to play center in a few years, so Wells is likely to be there for the foreseeable future. Cruz will be a good right-fielder, on the other hand. I suspect that prioritizing outfield defense is a good way to improve your staff ERA.
We should also not overlook the possibility that by making this trade, Ricciardi might raise Mondesi's trade value slightly. I think there was a perception that the Jays had to move Mondesi to make room for Wells and that the other GMs were trying to make lowball offers to see if Ricciardi would bite.
I agree that they could have gotten more for Fullmer, but let's face it: he's a born DH and his bat is marginal for the position. Cruz has oodles more value.
Lloyd -- Free agent to 'Spos
Silva is, as ChrisM mentioned, on the Reds' DL. He underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, and God only knows when he'll be healthy again. The other players acquired in the trade all appear to be out of baseball, and none ever made the majors. Brandon Cromer spent some time in the Marlins' organization in 1998, was outrighted to AA, and vanished from that team's transaction log. Cromer was in camp with the Reds in 2000 as an NRI, but got sent to minor-league camp fairly early on. ( http://reds.enquirer.com/2000/03/10/red_griffey_making_habit.html ) He was apparently playing for the Huntsville Stars, the Brewers' affiliate in the Southern League, later that year ( http://www.angelfire.com/sports/starsfan/cromerb.htm ), but I can't find any mention of him anywhere after that. Jose Pett was still in the Pirates' system at the end of 1998, when he was outrighted to Nashville and subsequently disappeared. Mike Halperin never appeared on a transaction log after the trade, and I have no idea where he is or what he's doing.
It doesn't seem like there's much trade interest in relievers ATM (Steve Phillips' overpaying for Scott Strickland notwithstanding). Oakland's been stuck with three lefties since the start of the season, the Pirates had to option Mike Lincoln because they couldn't convince anyone to trade for any of their relievers, and Antonio Alfonseca brought next to nothing (even for a mediocre closer) when traded to the Cubs.
"What we lack in quality, we make up for by lack of quantity."
or
"11 bad pitchers must be better than 12 bad pitchers."
Advice to Buck: if you find a reliever who has his good stuff it might be a good idea for him to face more than 1 or 2 batters.
Newcomers:
Pitchers: Prokopec, Miller, Thurman, Walker, Heredia
"Newcomers:
Pitchers: Prokopec, Miller, Thurman, Walker, Heredia"
All doing very well (comparatively) except for Prokopec, who once again did not provide a quality start last night. What's wrong with the North of the Border Northpaw from Down Under?
I looked at his stats from last year and this year, prorating last year's to a comparable number of innings (multiplied by .275).
Home Runs: 2001: 7.4; 2002: 8
Historically yes. 2001, not so much.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2001.shtml
One year blip? New reality? Effects of currency fluctuations?
2002 stats probably meaningless so far. The Blue Jays have sucked at home in only a few series, which can throw off the numbers.
Oh, Strickland's numbers with the Mets: 2-1, 1 Save, 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP - According to Prospectus, 4.1 ARP (ironically, that's what Chen has for the 'Spos).
As a Met fan, I didn't like the trade, but I don't think it was ridiculously bad for either team (of course, none of the Mets' starters have gotten hurt yet)
To take it to the extreme, if the manager has a choice of putting up two hitters against a pitcher, one is 0 for 1 against him and the other is 1 for 1 against him, we'd all agree that deciding to use to second player because of his past record is meaningless.
But, if over the course of a season, the manager ALWAYS picks the 1 for 1 guy in 100 different situations where he is faced with the identical choice, he will, overall, pick the better hitter more often than not, because the better hitter against that pitcher will be more likely to be 1 for 1.
The problem is that people look at individual matchups and say (verbatim), "That manager is an idiot. He's leaving in the lefty against the lefty pitcher because he's 5 for 11 against him lifetime. Small sample size fallacy." Well, yes, it's a dumb decision if you only do it once. But over the course of dozens of 5 for 11s, there will be a distinct advantage for the guy who goes for the matchup.
Actually, I like Bo Porter for some reason.
At this point, the Blue Jays are better off bidding adieu, but Fletcher impressed the hell out of me.
That in itself is enough to rest upon.
Carpenter is not expected to be able to pitch until Aug or Sept. And who knows about Sirotka. A minor league deal is probally the only thing either pitcher could get right now.
Matthew, it's kind of nice that Sirotka thinks he owes the Jays something, but I don't think he does. He did as well as he could for the time he was with the team. He didn't trade himself there for Wells. If Sirotka had been the Cy Young, do you think the Jays would have felt they owed him more than his salary for those years?
How about some MLEs for Lyon?
All that said, add me to the list of people surprised by the move. Any 23-year-old who's had major-league success would seem to be worth hanging on to. And if he is in fact a Quantrill clone, why not try moving him to the pen: it made Q a millionaire. Assuming there's no personality or other issue we're not aware of, I do find this one questionable. I worry a little that JP considers marginal or still-developing talent to be wholly expendable, and I've had that worry ever since the Brad Fullmer trade (which, granted, was primarily for salary and roster reasons).
I agree that Carpenter and Sirotka will probably sign minor-league deals, but frankly they seem little more than back-of-the-rotation prospects now. Anything else on the way? Pasqual Coco seems to have plateaued at Triple-A, and Mike Smith is already just a six-inning starter there. Chulk is very promising at AA, but after that, you're down to A ball with Francisco Rosario, Dave Gassner, Dustin McGowan et al. Dunedin will be a busy place next spring; the surfeit of open 40-man spots tells me they're planning a whole lot of minor-league channel-surfing this winter.
What is problematic is not so much the walks, but that he gives up so many damn home runs. He's not going to find SkyDome very congenial. He has had some small successes in the minors despite the walks, because he doesn't get jacked nearly as much there. (In fact, Creek could be another Scott Cassidy, a pitcher who just gets homered on too much to feel safe having him pitch at *any* time)
I think this is a lousy signing. I can understand the desire to make it clear to the Toronto faithful that we will not be seeing another repeat of The Great Pitcher Famine of 2002 (those who are not Toronto fans might not understand the depths to which we were scarred by the early-season rotation). But signing Doug Creek now just means you don't sign him for half that in February, and that seems a lot of money just to make Toronto fans feel secure that we won't see any more of Mike Smith or Brian Cooper.
Any other Blue Jay fans know if Bob File is going to be back next year?
I am a huge JP fan, but he gets no more free rides on questionable decisions. This is an Allard Baird-type of move. There, I said it.
But this wasn't really true last year. There were a lot of teams last spring trying to move lefties with no success, frequently cutting them a month or two into the season. Some were moved at the trade deadline, but I can't think of one that brought anything substantial in return.
This one gets filed under incomprehensible but inconsequential.
Last year, Ricardo Rincon was traded to Oakland for Marshall McDougall, an old-ish AAA middle infielder with some pop and patience, who might turn into a nice Russ Johnson-style utility infielder.
Jeff Fassero was traded to the Cardinals for cash and two minor-league PsTBNL (I'm not sure whether they have since been specified or not).
Alan Embree was traded to the Red Sox with Andy Shibilo for Dan Giese and Brad Baker. Baker is a decent prospect and a former first-round pick, while Giese and Shibilo are minor-league relievers.
The Mariners acquired Doug Creek for $$.
Rich Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers during spring training for a PTBNL.
John Bale was traded to the NY Mets for Gary Matthews, Jr, during spring training.
Also during spring training, Juan Moreno was traded to San Diego for Jason Moore, a minor-league SS whose prospect star has fallen in recent years (good glove, no hit).
Last offseason, Mark Guthrie was traded to the NY Mets for David Justice, in a deal that worked out pretty well for the A's.
Two years ago, Terry Mulholland brought the Pirates Mike Fetters (who was himself traded for Duaner Sanchez this year) and Adrian Burnside.
Crispix, you have WAY too much faith in Ed Wade.
That answer (confirming my tenuous hold on sanity) is "no."
You're thinking of Doug Johns.
Gabe Gross is striking out at a nifty 30% clip, and is hitting 230/304/344. Scott Wiggins, who at 26, should be dominating, has been just OK... he's been closing games. Kevin Cash hasn't hit; I haven't heard about defense. Mike Rouse has hardly played and hasn't hit. The D-Rays have two shortstops on the same team apparently ahead of him in Jace Brewer and Jorge Cantu, naturally non-prospect Brewer is getting the PT and prospects Cantu and Rouse get to sit. Cantu is on the taxi squad and has more PT than Rouse... maybe he was hurt.
On an unrelated note...
Even thinking about Jace Brewer makes me mad. A 23-year-old in A ball with an 11/62 K/W ratio and you think he's a better prospect than a 20-year-old in AA with twice as many walks? Predictably, they promoted Brewer and played him ahead of Cantu in AA, and a swell 213/240/265 line was the result in 150 PA. So they send him to Arizona to play ahead of the young kid and the other prospect (Rouse is a year younger than Brewer and hit 262/346/425 in the Southern League... about 260 points of OPS on Brewer).
I guess that's why the Devil Rays are the Devil Rays.
Then I saw who the manager was for the team (Grand Canyon) - Lenn Sakata.
WAY TO GO SAKATA, YOU JUST SCREWED US AGAIN.
Add Jeff Tam to the Bluejay stockpile as well (I haven't seen anyone mention him that I can see - unless I missed something)
[Commercial interlude]
Well, the DevilRays went on a shopping spree today:
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