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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 22, 2004

Toronto Blue Jays

Signed P Roy Halladay to a 4-year contract worth $42 million.

Excellent work by the Blue Jays as Halladay would likely get more than that on the open market.  Given Kerry Wood’s recent contract, Halladay would have ended up with 9 or 10 million this year anyway and this locks up 3 free agent years for not much more.  Doc should continue to be one of the best starters in the league and if all goes well, try to start pushing Dave Stieb off the mantle.  With the bullpen improved and Halladay locked up long-term, I’d still reduce his workload into the 220 innings range.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 22, 2004 at 08:14 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. Boileryard Posted: October 29, 2003 at 01:38 AM (#567997)
Catalanotto will be starting. I suspect he'll get a similar amount of playing time in 2004, or possibly a little less if they use a strict platoon with him and someone else (likely Reed Johnson).
   202. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 29, 2003 at 06:22 PM (#568002)
Just getting on the record as liking both signings for the price.
   203. Snowboy Posted: October 30, 2003 at 08:04 AM (#568004)
Did anyone find F-Cat's defensive play in RF to be acceptable?
   204. J. Cross Posted: October 31, 2003 at 09:45 PM (#568007)
Cat was worth 1.8 Wins above replacement offensively last year. Since teams spend about $2.5M/WARP, if he's expected to do the same his going rate might be about $4.5M/yr. Then again, for the Jays to win something they need to win something like 95 games (55 games over replacement) with a payroll just over $55M. Paying Cat $2.3M for 1.8 WARP (if you figure his flexibility makes up for any defensive shortcomings) isn't out of line with that but they'll need some better deals in the mix.
   205. RJ in TO Posted: November 18, 2003 at 10:10 PM (#568211)
It should be noted that the signing of Pat Hengten also has to be considered in terms of a PR move, not just as an attempt to improve the team.

After all, Hengten was the Jays first Cy guy, and is remembered reasonably fondly in the Toronto area, plus the Jays can use any help that they can get for boosting their attendance. Considering that, the $2.2M doesn't seem that unreasonable.
   206. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 18, 2003 at 11:45 PM (#568213)
If he's been medically cleared, I guess it's an OK signing. $2.2M for a #4 starter isn't anything to jump up and down about, but the Jays really needed some rotation arms, and there is the PR thing that Ryan was talking about.
   207. RJ in TO Posted: November 19, 2003 at 02:08 AM (#568215)
And now the Jays have added Lilly to go along with Hengten. Even if these guys don't exactly qualify as great, they sure seem better than Lidle, Sturtz (God Forbid), and Hendrickson.

If only they could resign Escobar the rotation would look pretty solid, which is all they really need with their offense.
   208. RickG Posted: November 19, 2003 at 03:57 AM (#568291)
A's still need a catcher...not too up on the salaries here, how does this work? Is it about even?
   209. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: November 19, 2003 at 04:22 AM (#568293)
They both make craptastic salaries this year, but Lilly is arb eligible next year, and that makes a difference to the A's, who will be trying to sign Chavez and Hudson. I think Beane is trying to make sure the A's can make realistic offers to both.
   210. Dylan B Posted: November 19, 2003 at 05:01 AM (#568219)
Hentgen isn't even a Type C free agent. A Type C has a second round pick as compensation.
   211. The Other Kurt Posted: November 19, 2003 at 06:22 AM (#568295)
Shane, here's how I see it. Take it with a grain of salt since I am an unabashed A's fan.

(A) If you believe that Chavez's splits are for real, which you may be able to convince even primates of becasue (first( he's left handed and (second) they've held steady for 4 years, then you still have to figure in...
   212. Jason Posted: November 19, 2003 at 01:36 PM (#568297)
So where does Kielty hit in the A's order? How about Kotsay?
   213. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 19, 2003 at 03:56 PM (#568222)
I suppose so, if by "props" you mean "not beaten with a lead pipe".
   214. Miles Posted: November 19, 2003 at 05:28 PM (#568223)
Toronto just looking for someone to swallow up some innings and keep them in some games. If he is healthy, maybe 12 wins and 170 inning?
   215. Walt Davis Posted: November 19, 2003 at 10:02 PM (#568313)
- One year of Erubial Durazo at $1.065mm + either what he receives in arbitration or 2 draft picks for losing him to free agency (Durazo is a Type A player)

No. Durazo is not an FA as he doesn't have close to 6 years service time yet. He's only in his second year of arbitration (4 years of service time). The A's can sign him (for 1 or more years), offer him arbitration, or non-tender him. He is only free to sign with another team if they non-tender him, but the A's will receive no compensation.

Beane has reportedly wanted Durazo for a long time, so he won't non-tender him. And Durazo wasn't that great last year (especially by arb standards) and only cost $1 M in 2003, so he won't be very expensive next year.
   216. Walt Davis Posted: November 19, 2003 at 10:04 PM (#568314)
Hey Dan,

What's ZIPS got to say about Kielty? Still looks like a decent OBP, no power guy to me. The A's could use the OBP, but I don't foresee him being all that valuable.
   217. David Jones Posted: November 20, 2003 at 12:07 AM (#568316)
Anybody have any thoughts on where this puts the Blue Jays for next season?

With Delgado, Wells, Hinske, and Phelps anchoring the offense, and now Lilly and Hentgen added to Halladay for the pitching, it seems to me they might just be one or two moves away from making a move to win this division next year.
   218. miles Posted: November 20, 2003 at 03:38 PM (#568228)
...and they should have been playing Wells about a year an a half earlier. He's the real deal. Hit , hit for power, run, throw and field. Torii Hunter on high test.
   219. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2003 at 04:37 PM (#568321)
With the revamped outfield in Oakland, and Seattle trotting out the Ibanez-Winn-Ichiro nightmare, the A's are going to run away with the West next year. Run away and HIDE.

I'm not so sure. Cameron was pretty average last year and Ibanez could certainly reproduce that (or close enough to it). There'd be a defensive hit obviously. If Olerud bounces back at least a little bit, Ichiro bounces back, and Edgar stays healthy, no reason the M's offense shouldn't be as good or better. Then if they can actually address their 3B problem, they should be better even if one of the above doesn't happen.

The M's of course are an old team (Hasegawa is 34??!!) and could collectively fall off the cliff at any moment. But if they don't, swapping Cameron for Ibanez is not going to turn them into also-rans.
   220. The Other Kurt Posted: November 21, 2003 at 06:54 AM (#568324)
Trey, I'd say the chances are decent, but not great.

First, you can count on Beane signing at least one cheap vet for a #4 pitcher, a la Halama and Yarnall last year. Beane does build a good team with youth, but he does not like to have to rely on untested guys. Harden will probably make the rotation. Behind him, and in front of Rheinecker is Duchscherer. And there is still Harville rotting away at AAA if they need a replacement guy and don't want to bring up Rheineker for any reason.

Overall I'd say it depends if Beane snags one or two arms off the scrap heap, how those guys preform, and if anyone goes down to injury. I'd give you 9/10 that Rheineker spends September in the rotation, but only 1/4 that he sees the majors before the All-Star break.

Just a SWAG.
   221. AGF Posted: November 21, 2003 at 06:35 PM (#568326)
How about Blanton? Isn't he in front of Rheineker due to pure talent/performance?
   222. MM1f Posted: November 24, 2003 at 02:11 AM (#568327)
What's the due date for the PTBNL in the Stewart/Kielty deal and is the PTBNL in that deal supposed to be of any value?
   223. ChuckO Posted: November 28, 2003 at 10:02 PM (#568861)
I watched him while he was in Atlanta. From my observations, when he got in a tough situation, he seemed to tense up and start looking toward the dugout as though wondering if Mazzone was going to come out. I got the impression that his problem was mental makeup. I'm guessing that's still the case. It would also explain the fact that he's been to so many organizations. He might look good when they scout him, so they sign him, and then realize what the real problem is.
   224. Andere Richtingen Posted: November 29, 2003 at 01:15 AM (#568862)
WOW, Dan is young. Players my age tend to be favored by Dusty Baker.
   225. Miles Posted: December 01, 2003 at 08:41 PM (#568867)
No shame signing to minor league contract. My birthday is April 20th as well, 1956.....I'm happy to share mine with Jessica Lange!
   226. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2003 at 04:01 PM (#569506)
1 - I think ZiPS is shooting for too high an ERA here.
   227. Matthew E Posted: December 09, 2003 at 04:39 PM (#569509)
Will Lopez be on the big club next year?

Assuming he doesn't get run over by a helicopter or anything, he will. In fact, he'll probably get most of the save opportunities.

The money might be a bit more than most of us would have predicted, but this is consistent with Ricciardi's other signings since he shook Godfrey's hand. The man's never been afraid to overpay for what he wanted. Up to a point.
   228. Andrew Edwards Posted: December 12, 2003 at 03:53 AM (#569885)
Reportedly 3 years, $5 million per. A bit higher than you thought, but still a good signing.
   229. Tony B Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:02 AM (#569886)

It's not Stieb-Alexander-Key-Clancy, but it'll do.
   230. Old Matt Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:21 AM (#569887)
Great pickup here... I wish the Cubs were this smart. His SOs improved a ton and his walk rate made a small improvement last year. I think it's possible his ERA could improve as well. He has a possibility to continue as a late bloomer and be a very solid starter for the Jays at not too much cash.
   231. NTNgod Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:38 AM (#569889)
   232. Snowboy Posted: December 12, 2003 at 05:13 AM (#569891)
Is $5M per season "not too much cash?" They let Escobar walk for $6M. I like the sounds of Oracle's $2.5M/per better. Maybe we'll find out eventually, if anyone can squeeze it out of a Jays mailroomboy or something.

As for finding a "great fielding, no hitting SS" they've already sort of got that in Woodward. Woodward has never been anything more than a sub in my mind, but he and O-Dog seem to get along well, he practices hard and has a worker attitude. Woodward hit 261/316/395 this year and is a pretty decent fielder. I don't know if picking up (who's an available defensive whiz?) Rey Ordonez is going to make that much of a difference in the field, to make up for the weak bat. The NL teams do it with an pretty easy out every 9th batter, but I just don't think signing a Felix Martinez as your SS would work in the AL. Woodward is not any kind of a longterm player, but he's not paid like one either.
   233. ColonelTom Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:48 PM (#569895)
Whats wrong with Josh Towers?

He's tater-iffic. 26 HR in 91 IP the last 2 years. That's absolutely horrifying.
   234. Matthew E Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:03 PM (#569897)
The thing with Towers is he had that big run of success at the end of last year. That run of success will (I predict) be enough to get him a job as the Jays' fifth starter to start '04. After that he'll have to sink or swim. This makes him the inheritor of a proud tradition that goes back through Mark Hendrickson and Brandon Lyon. We'll see if he can do better than they did. I don't really think he will, but he might.
   235. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 12, 2003 at 05:41 PM (#569899)
Yeah, I think he is. I'm always happy to find out that there are professional athletes who's vocabulary extends past "like" and "you know."
   236. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2003 at 06:57 PM (#569900)
Towers relies on great control, but his stuff doesn't fool anybody twice. A few months ago, I went through a bunch of major and minor league game logs and Towers simply has gotten *slaughtered* after the first time he faces a team - I'll see if I can dig it up.
   237. Matthew E Posted: December 12, 2003 at 07:27 PM (#569901)
Isn't Miguel Batista the guy who writes poetry and essays and generally speaks like an intelligent human?

Craig B posted this Bob Brenly quote about Batista on Batter's Box:

"He is a refreshing breath of fresh air. Not that this is a criticism, but if you are not talking about fantasy football or baseball or girls, most ballplayers don't have much to say.

"Miguel's got opinions on everything. He's extremely well-read, extremely well-spoken and a very thoughtful, caring human being. And he's a great pitcher on top of it. He's fun to be around."

And in one of Richard Griffin's recent columns, Griffin listed some of Batista's accomplishments - he's a published poet, he's writing a detective novel, he's got a program going to drive poor kids to and from school and day care.

The contract details have been announced, by the way - total 13.1 mil, 3.6 mil of that in '03 and 4.75 mil each of the two years after that.
   238. Robert S. Posted: December 14, 2003 at 02:15 AM (#569904)
I'm really going to miss Batista; he's been one of my favorites since he arrived in AZ. His numbers over the last few years would be even better if he had been a consistent starter from the beginning.
   239. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 28, 2003 at 05:15 AM (#570823)
Every hit by Hermansen brings us one day closer to a McClendon-less Pirates. Go get 'em, Chad!
   240. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 29, 2003 at 03:24 PM (#570826)
Well, there was also Associate Doofus Richie Hebner assisting McClendon.
   241. SM in DC Posted: December 29, 2003 at 07:53 PM (#570835)
Uhhh... Mr. Yankees...

You also developed Bernie Williams and Mike Lowell
   242. Snowboy Posted: December 30, 2003 at 05:32 PM (#570843)
He's trying to make people forget that last year he signed Doug Creek and Jeff Tam to major league deals in November.
   243. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 02, 2004 at 03:39 PM (#570845)
The Pirates also developed Jose Guillen during that time (if you're willing to stretch "developed" to include "rushed before abandoning to the wolves"), and there's a reasonable chance he finally turned the corner last year.
   244. Matthew E Posted: January 02, 2004 at 09:22 PM (#570847)
I know that the bullpen is the Jays biggest weakness last year

The bullpen wasn't great last year, but I was a lot more concerned about the back end of the rotation. It wasn't pretty, and I think it hurt the team a lot worse than the bullpen did.

I don't know anything about de los Santos, but I'm not too worried, as there are about four guys ahead of him on the depth charts. I do like the fact that his last name comes in three pieces.
   245. Johnny Tuttle Posted: January 08, 2004 at 03:18 AM (#571174)
I love that most if not all of JP's gambles, such as they are, are on one-year deals. Adams et al. either work out or are dumped in July; I love it. Any final tally for compensatory draft picks lost and gained by the Blue Jays this off season?
   246. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2004 at 06:45 PM (#571176)
Adams was always a high-variance reliever when with the Cubs. He'd go like 20 innings while giving up like 10 hits and 1 run, then get shelled over his next 10, then be unhittable again, then...
   247. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 11, 2004 at 02:40 PM (#570849)
De los Santos has always looked pretty solid when I've seen him pitch. His velocity occasionally got up into the mid-90s, and for a guy with his walk rate, he didn't seem to miss the catcher's glove all that often.
   248. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: January 22, 2004 at 08:26 PM (#571949)
With the bullpen improved and Halladay locked up long-term, I'd still reduce his workload into the 220 innings range.

Halladay, though, appeared to relish his starts on three days' rest, and claimed he felt much sharper when doing so, especially compared to five days' rest. I wouldn't mind seeing him throw 220-230 innings, but I'd be disappointed if those innings came in less than 37 or 38 starts - about 32 starts on four days' rest, with the occasional start on three days' rest following a short outing. If he wants to work, I say let him work - and just keep his pitch counts lower.

One thing to remember about Halladay, is that he is efficient enough that throwing 260 innings for him (at around 14 pitches per inning) is the same wear-and-tear as throwing 225 innings for a typical pitcher (at around 16 pitches per inning). In fact, it's probably somewhat less, since he works very fast, so he's throwing many fewer pitches when tired.
   249. DEF: Cobra Chicken Posted: January 22, 2004 at 08:39 PM (#571950)
Halladay is a year behind Wood, no? wood is FA eligible after 2004, Halladay not until 2005. So the Jays get 2 arb years and 2 FA years with the deal.
   250. Neil Posted: January 23, 2004 at 01:01 AM (#571953)
Say Halladay puts up worse numbers than he does this year OR doesn't win the Cy Young again (very likely, of course).

Given that the market conditions are identical, could the Blue Jays have signed him to a three year contract for less money? Or does Halladay's consistency add $$ to his perceived market value?
   251. Matthew E Posted: January 23, 2004 at 01:46 AM (#571954)
Well, say you're the Jays' management. You don't want to be in a position of cheering for your own ace to pitch badly just so you can save some money.
   252. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2004 at 12:55 PM (#571955)
I should note that this looks up *2* not 3 free agent years - I added his 40-man roster time wrong.
   253. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2004 at 12:55 PM (#571956)
Errr, MLB roster time.
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