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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Twins - Acquired Young

Minnesota Twins - Acquired OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie from the Tampa Bay Rays for P Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and P Eduardo Morlan

Just to keep the big trades the last few trades straight, this is the trade in which one side isn’t absolutely looting the other side.

The Twins have been quite good at cultivating pitchers in recent years, but although Mauer and Morneau were developed by the team (though one could argue that Mauer was essentially a finished product), the team has done a terrible job at developing players to fit in the core around them.  The Devil Rays have been the opposite - they develop outfielders by the dozen but except for Young and infielders that don’t play defense.  Both teams look better after the trade.  The Twins get a player with superstar potential, though it would be overrating the odds to say that he was a lock, and the Rays now have a Kazmir-Shields-Garza top of the rotation with some terrific prospects.  Hopefully gone are the days when the Rays (I’m still tempted to say Devil Rays) do things like keep sticking Mark Hendrickson in there because he’s huge and acting as the farewell tour for Hideo Nomo, International Man of Misery.

Brendan Harris can’t field shortstop, but he could be a serviceable 3B.  Probably won’t hit anywhere near what one would like at the hot corner, but this is a team that thought they could compete with Nick Punto at 3rd.  In a sense, Punto’s wretched season was an act of mercy - if he hit 330/330 as he probably should have, the Twins may have just been convinced that he was scrappy and worth it, but when he played that badly, it’s hard to even make that argument.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Matt Garza
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 13 13 33 32 185 208   89 20 51 137 4.33L
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 16 10 35 34 197 200   80 14 58 170 3.65
Pes. (15%)  7 14 28 27 147 180   92 21 60 112 5.63
———————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Lynn McGlothen, Bob Moose

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Delmon Young
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   589 63 173 34 1 13 81 26 118 11 .294 .324 .421
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  638 82 208 45 2 18 100 33 103 17 .326 .361 .487
Pes. (15%)  508 46 136 28 0   9 58 17 111   7 .268 .292 .376
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Claudell Washington, Roberto Clemente

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Brendan Harris
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   492 64 133 29 2 11 57 42 99   3 .270 .332 .407
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  549 79 154 41 3 18 84 56 103   5 .281 .364 .464
Pes. (15%)  418 43   99 26 1   8 47 31 93   1 .237 .294 .361
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Harvey Kuenn, Chris Gomez

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jason Bartlett
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   528 81 144 25 4   5 46 45 75 14 .273 .340 .366
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  579 100 171 32 7   7 66 52 71 23 .295 .365 .411
Pes. (15%)  447 57 113 18 4   2 39 30 67 11 .253 .306 .324
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Scott Fletcher, David Eckstein

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2007 at 04:49 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2007 at 06:04 AM (#2630454)
Top Comps: Harvey Kuenn, Chris Gomez

eh? Kuenn was a pretty good hitter -- 108 OPS+ career, 105 through 26 (Harris' age). Gomez has always stunk as a hitter -- 82 career, 78 through 26. ZIPS seems a bit confused about Mr. Harris. :-)
   2. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 01, 2007 at 06:22 AM (#2630466)
Top Comps: Claudell Washington, Roberto Clemente


That seems to perfectly sum up the debate on this trade. Young could go either way. If he's Claudell Washington, that's a useful player to have, but the kind of guy that you trade away when you can plug 2 or 3 holes. If he's Roberto Clemente, well, those are the trades you remember for a long time. It should be fun to find out which one he is.
   3. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: December 01, 2007 at 06:25 AM (#2630472)
Maybe this is a dumb question, but what's with the "L" after Garza's ZiPS ERA? Typo or notation with which I'm unfamiliar?
   4. Cris E Posted: December 01, 2007 at 06:29 AM (#2630477)
Here are the Pridie and Morlan ZIPs from their old teams. I guess I still wish Rincon had been the one shipped off to the Bay.


Eduardo Morlan 22 5.01 4 6 42 9 97.0 105 54 17 30 78


Jason Pridie* cf 24 .253 .303 .379 139 494 55 125 22 5 10 44 32 94 14 7
   5. Urban Faber Posted: December 01, 2007 at 07:02 AM (#2630494)
Top Comps: Lynn McGlothen, Bob Moose

Wow, ZIPS doesn't think Garza will be around AT ALL by age 35. Creepy.
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 01, 2007 at 07:20 AM (#2630499)
[3] It's because he's a Loser.
   7. Silencio Posted: December 01, 2007 at 08:36 AM (#2630553)
Can we get the projection for Young over the next 5 years?
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 01, 2007 at 09:51 AM (#2630601)
So the Rays win the trade handily for one year. They must be going for it.
   9. Bad Doctor Posted: December 02, 2007 at 03:19 PM (#2631289)
So the Rays win the trade handily for one year. They must be going for it.

They only have to win if for the next five, and with all the young talent on their roster and young arms in their system, they'll definitely be going for it at some point in the next five years.

It's way too early to write off Young. Granted. But all the posts comparing him to superstars who were also less than impressive at age 21 (Clemente, Yount, Yaz, Molitor, Sosa) ignore the fact that none of those players, producing as they did from ages 21 through 26, would do the 2007 through 2012 Tampa Bay Rays much good.
   10. JPWF13 Posted: December 03, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2632217)
(Clemente, Yount, Yaz, Molitor, Sosa) ignore the fact that none of those players, producing as they did from ages 21 through 26, would do the 2007 through 2012 Tampa Bay Rays much good.


Yaz was a terrifc player from age 21-26, so was Molitor, Sosa and Clemente got going at age 25
   11. Bad Doctor Posted: December 03, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2632760)
Ugh ... that point was a lot more well formed when I thought of it the day of the trade, instead of trying to remember it the weekend after. Sufficed to say, the majority of the 21-year-old players posited in the Young threads wouldn't do the Rays much good from 21 through 26. And they're the best case scenarios.

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