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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Twins - Signed Livan

Minnesota Twins - Signed P Livan Hernandez to a 1-year, $5 million contract, with $2 millioni in incentives.

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:55 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Mark R. Garber Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:59 PM (#2689192)
Not my favorite meme, to be honest, but I still laughed.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#2689196)
He clearly doesn't ask for permission before he has cheezburger.
   3. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2689241)
Dan really outdid himself with the playing card. That being said, I think his ZIPS numbers are pretty optimistic.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2689260)
OMG!!!ROFLMAO!!!!

I liked this in the other Livan thread though:

14. chemdoc Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:37 AM (#2688805)
When reached for comment, Livan said "IM IN UR METRODOME STEALING UR MONEY!"
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#2689272)
I like how Livan is in the archetypal "fat pitcher" pose here. This looks eerily like the photo of Ruben Quevedo I used in a "fat players" thread a few months ago.
   6. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 12, 2008 at 10:57 PM (#2689274)
Except that Livan's face isn't as fat. He continues to look like Dr. Dre.
   7. aleskel Posted: February 12, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#2689293)
pwned
   8. CraigK Posted: February 13, 2008 at 12:52 AM (#2689374)
   9. CraigK Posted: February 13, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#2689375)
   10. spycake Posted: February 13, 2008 at 01:56 AM (#2689409)
I notice this is the same projection from the Diamondbacks post. Are there any league/park adjustments here? Or is this projection bad enough to throw those to the four winds?
   11. parkermo Posted: February 13, 2008 at 03:18 AM (#2689475)
That facial expression is priceless.
   12. MSI Posted: February 13, 2008 at 05:08 AM (#2689527)
It's gotta be worth something that he's gone almost 10 years with over 200 IP and only 1 year with a +5 ERA.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 13, 2008 at 05:57 AM (#2689546)

I notice this is the same projection from the Diamondbacks post. Are there any league/park adjustments here?


I'm pretty sure the league settings are the same in the NL as they are in the International League.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 13, 2008 at 06:11 AM (#2689554)
the IP and peripherals are actually slightly different - the park difference cancels out the league difference.
   15. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 13, 2008 at 06:37 AM (#2689567)
The BOB is a tough place to pitch; Miguel Batista was able to make the switch from the NL to AL quite well in part because was moving from the BOB to Saefco.
   16. Robert S. Posted: February 13, 2008 at 07:53 AM (#2689578)
It's gotta be worth something that he's gone almost 10 years with over 200 IP and only 1 year with a +5 ERA.

Livan has some unholy, paradoxical combination of intelligence/stubbornness/indifference/competitiveness, but his stuff is garbage. Maybe he can guile and bullshit his way through another season, but the signs I saw last year all said, "Lima Time".

Livan was tossing BP most of '07. He gave up 73 hits and somehow only allowed 4 home runs in his first 73 IP. In his next 131.1 IP, he gave up 174 hits and 30 home runs. I have no idea how he spent four months as a piƱata and only had a 5.69 ERA in that span to show for it.
   17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 13, 2008 at 08:07 AM (#2689579)
Don't the Twins have like 10 pitchers that could pitch in their rotation already? I don't think that team really needs an innings eater.
   18. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 13, 2008 at 05:35 PM (#2689875)
Don't the Twins have like 10 pitchers that could pitch in their rotation already?

Yeah, sort of, in the sense that the Orioles do. But they don't want total chaos as three guys simultaneously show that they have no right being in the majors. They've lost three stalwarts of the last good Twins team - Radke, Santana and Silva. Now they do need an innings-eater.

What they don't need, though, is Mike Lamb and Craig Monroe. It does seem that they've wasted some money this off-season.
   19. JMPH Posted: February 13, 2008 at 06:18 PM (#2689973)
What they don't need, though, is Mike Lamb and Craig Monroe. It does seem that they've wasted some money this off-season.


Sure, they likely could have been cheaper on those two, especially Monroe, but does it matter? This is a team that is filled with one-year deals, and they aren't expected to contend. Wasting money on a one-year deal for stopgap players when you have a very nice young nucleus already assembled isn't hurting anyone. They had the money, and they need to put a team on the field.

Plus, Hernandez, like any pitcher with a pulse, will likely have suitors at the deadline this year. The Twins stand to make a killing in July unless they somehow end up in or close to contention. Everett and Hernandez--possibly even Lamb and Monroe--should be attractive options to contenders.
   20. something clever Posted: February 13, 2008 at 06:24 PM (#2689981)
"Livaunching Pad Hernandez"
-my personal favorite
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 13, 2008 at 06:28 PM (#2689986)
Wasting money on a one-year deal for stopgap players when you have a very nice young nucleus already assembled isn't hurting anyone. They had the money, and they need to put a team on the field.

Well you could save the money so you could add an impact player, by going over budget, when you're close to contention.
   22. JMPH Posted: February 13, 2008 at 09:33 PM (#2690404)
Well you could save the money so you could add an impact player, by going over budget, when you're close to contention.

Carl Pohlad does not save money for anything but his own billfold.
   23. shoewizard Posted: February 13, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#2690461)
It's gotta be worth something that he's gone almost 10 years with over 200 IP and only 1 year with a +5 ERA.

Well, apparently it's worth 5 million with 2 million worth of incentives.

Seriously, if you Neutralize his 2007 stats onto the 2007 Twins, his ERA actually goes down from 4.93 to 4.60 and his WHIP goes from 1.595 to 1.528. It's always amazing to me just how much park adjustments warp Chase Field performance for both pitchers and hitters. Of course, just because it's Livan, and he has to defy all common sense and logic, he was actually better at home than on the road last year, both in ERA and WHIP. Go figure.

Home 102 IP, 4.68, 1.51 WHIP, 15 HR .851 OPS Against
Road 102 IP, 5.19, 1.68 WHIP, 19 HR .881 OPS Against

That said, I agree with Robert. His last 20 starts, 131 innings show it truly is Lima Time. There is no injury to hang it on. He's going to get killed in 2008.

BTW, Dan, how many innings is that projection for? I don't think the Twins will run him out there enough to allow him to reach 200 innings. I figure they will give up after 150-160 or so.
   24. Honkie Kong Posted: February 13, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2690464)
Actually I am not surprised he did better at home. Livan is the kind of pitcher who uses the hitter's anxiousness against him.
And in Chase Field, I guess most hitters were thinking that they should be killing him, and pressing a bit.
Thats my worthless bit of amateur psychology. Well, you can give me 2 cents if you want.
   25. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: February 15, 2008 at 03:58 PM (#2691878)
90 Ks, 79 BBs in 204 IP last year.

Horrifying. It's amazing he was able to keep the ERA under 5.

I love the new meme. Stop! Lima Time!
   26. Rough Carrigan Posted: February 17, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2692776)
Please let him start for the Twins in the game at Fenway for which I have tickets!! The Sox will destroy him.
   27. WillYoung Posted: February 20, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2695537)
Except that Livan's face isn't as fat. He continues to look like Dr. Dre.


Not as much as this guy on his own pitching staff.
   28. Harvey Berkman Posted: August 05, 2008 at 12:12 AM (#2889946)
as of 08/01/08,

10-8, 5.48, 199 hits. 139 innings.

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