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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 31, 2008

White Sox - Acquired Griffey

Chicago White Sox - Apparently acquired RF Ken Griffey Jr. from the Chicago White Sox for P Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar.

And Griffey leaves Cincinnati, leaving Jeff Brantley’s throat intact, to the chragin of many.  There’s no way to chalk up Griffey’s time in Cincinnati as a success, given that he only played 2 full seasons in nearly 9 (with a 3rd season that wasn’t full, but was of superstar quality).  Griff’s essentially a 4th outfielder on the White Sox and some of the speculation about him playing some center in Chicago is quite frightening, with Griffey having not played centerfield at all since 2006 and not well since 2001.  I’d put Dye in center before Griffey at this point and I wouldn’t put Dye in center.  It’d be nice to get The Nerk out of the lineup, but it’s going to be tough.

The Reds get a surprisingly decent haul for the last few months of Griffey’s contract.  Neither Masset or Richar have any star potential, but they’re a good step above the random A-baller you frequently see in these types of trades.  God knows the Reds can always use an extra arm and Richar, a dark horse candidate for a job last winter, provides additional infield depth, which the Reds don’t have, as witnessed by Paul Janish being pushed for a while into a role he was completely not ready for.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Ken Griffey Jr.
———————————————————————————————————-
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Year-to-Date 359 81   88 20 1 15 53 61 64   0 .245 .355 .432
Rest-of-Yr   150 21   39   7 0   8 26 21 27   0 .260 .351 .467  
———————————————————————————————————-
Total       509 72 127 27 1 23 79 82 91   0 .250 .354 .442
———————————————————————————————————-
2009?      431 58 107 19 0 20 72 62 81   0 .248 .343 .432  
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Danny Richar
———————————————————————————————————-
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Year-to-Date* 252 31   62 10 0   8 33 16 42 10 .246 .296 .381
Rest-of-Yr   149 19   37   7 1   4 18 11 27   3 .248 .304 .389
———————————————————————————————————-
* - Includes Minor League Translation  
———————————————————————————————————-
2009?      476 65 122 23 3 13 62 38 84 10 .256 .315 .399
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Russ Adams, Rob Wilfong

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Nick Masset
————————————————————————————————
          W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   1   0 32   1   44.2   55   23   4 21 32 4.63
Rest-of-Yr?  1   2 13   3   32.0   37   19   4 14 21 5.34
————————————————————————————————
Total       2   2 45   4   76.2   82   42   8 35 53 4.93
————————————————————————————————
2009?      4   4 43   9   99.0 107   53   8 44 59 4.82      
————————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Tex Clevenger, Lance Cormier

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 07:02 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: July 31, 2008 at 09:28 PM (#2885391)
Griffey as a Mariner: 12 seasons, .296/.380/.568, 438 HR, 1680 games
Griffey as a Red: 9 seasons, .269/.357/.506, 170 HR, 800 games

A bit of a dropoff.
   2. JMPH Posted: July 31, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#2885411)
A bit of a dropoff.

It's really a shame, too. Think of the totals this guy could have...
   3. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:07 PM (#2885447)
Reportedly, the White Sox envision Griffey as a CFer. Swisher will be a 4 position supersub (1B/OF).

Wow, that strikes me as a remarkably terrible idea.
   4. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#2885451)
don't worry, Kenny Williams swears that Centerfield is the easiest outfield position to play, healthwise.

A series with Griffey in center for the White Sox, and an injured Jose Guillen in right for the Royals. That's gonna be ugly.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#2885460)
If Griffey's in center, one should hope for centerfield to be the hardest position to play, healthwise.
   6. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2885473)
I could see Griffey playing a few games in CF against KC and SEA, but that's not very many games. Meanwhile, the Twins have almost an entire month of August against bad teams: 9(!) against Seattle, 6 against Oakland, plus 3 KC and 3 Cleveland. It's the Twins division to lose at this point.
   7. Newtype Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:39 PM (#2885474)
Does anyone know if Griffey is going to be a Type A or B free agent at the end of the year.

It would explain a lot if the White Sox can get draft picks back.
   8. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:46 PM (#2885484)
He's right on the border between Type A and B.

In 2007, he was a Type A. He scored 72.8, or tied for 19th when the top 24 1B/OF were outfielders.

My guess is that Elias will treat Griffey's 2006 better than his 2008, mostly due to the HR. I don't think that he'll be penalized as much as he should for the lower OBP. Without a hot couple of months, I'd wager on him being a Type B.
   9. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 31, 2008 at 10:47 PM (#2885486)
when the top 24 1B/OF were outfielders.

That should read "when the top 24 1B/OF were considered Type A.
   10. SuperGrover Posted: July 31, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2885526)
I could see Griffey playing a few games in CF against KC and SEA, but that's not very many games. Meanwhile, the Twins have almost an entire month of August against bad teams: 9(!) against Seattle, 6 against Oakland, plus 3 KC and 3 Cleveland. It's the Twins division to lose at this point.


Aside from the fact that Minnesota is 7.5 games behind in third order standings and has clearly been the inferior team to this point.
   11. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: July 31, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2885533)
I could see Griffey playing a few games in CF against KC and SEA, but that's not very many games. Meanwhile, the Twins have almost an entire month of August against bad teams: 9(!) against Seattle, 6 against Oakland, plus 3 KC and 3 Cleveland. It's the Twins division to lose at this point.


I don't know that I'd go that far (or as far as SuperGrover goes the other way). The weighted average winning percentage of Minnesota's remaining opponents is .488; for the White Sox, it's .506. If Minnesota holds its remaining opponents to a .488 winning percentage (that is, if Minnesota wins 51.2% of their games), they'll finish with 87 wins (59 now + 28). If the White Sox hold their remaining opponents to a .506 winning percentage (that is, the White Sox win 49.4% of their remaining games), they'll also finish with 87 wins (60 now + 27).

One difference is games remaining at home and on the road. Both teams are obviously a lot better at home (for Chicago, the winning percentage split is .686 at home versus .455 on the road; for Minnesota, it's .643 at home versus .451 on the road). The White Sox have 29 home games and 26 road games remaining. The Twins have 25 home games and 30 road games remaining. If the teams continue to play to their home-road winning percentages, the White Sox will win 92 games and the Twins will win 89.

Both teams have brutal road trips on their schedules. The White Sox are in the midst of a 10-game road trip, and have road trips of 10, 9 and 3 games remaining (the 3-game trip is against the A's - ugh). The Twins have road trips of 7, 14(!), and 10 games remaining.
   12. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: July 31, 2008 at 11:35 PM (#2885535)
Aside from the fact that Minnesota is 7.5 games behind in third order standings and has clearly been the inferior team to this point.


Plus the White Sox have five more home games left than the Twins do. Both teams have been very good at home and five games under .500 on the road.
   13. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: July 31, 2008 at 11:49 PM (#2885543)
Just for gits and shiggles (and to avoid doing my REAL stats homework), some numbers for Detroit.

-They have a .569 winning percentage at home (where they have 30 games remaining) and .456 on the road (24 games remaining). If they stick to those percentages, they'll be at 83 wins.

-Like the White Sox, the weighted average winning percentage of their remaining opponent is .506. So, if Detroit wins 49.4% of their remaining games, they'll be at 82 wins.
   14. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: August 01, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#2886339)
#11 - Good analysis.

I give the edge to the Twins because they can bring up Liriano at any time (what are they waiting for???). On the other hand the White Sox could not possibly play any worse than they did in July, though Griffey certainly makes them even worse defensively.
   15. SuperGrover Posted: August 01, 2008 at 07:22 PM (#2886559)
On the other hand the White Sox could not possibly play any worse than they did in July, though Griffey certainly makes them even worse defensively.


The Sox were 12-12 in July. They did have a -12 run differential. They lost two games in the standings to Minnesota and a half game to Detroit.

The real question is can Minnesota continue to hit absurdly well with RISP? They are currently hitting .316, a full 31 points better than second place LA and 44 points better than the Sox (who are 4th in the AL). Keep in mind .316 is the highest team RISP batting average since at least 2000 when ESPN archived stats expire.

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