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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, July 24, 2006
White Sox - Acquired MacDougal
Chicago White Sox - Acquired P Mike MacDougal from the Kansas City Royals for P Tyler Lumsden and P Daniel Cortes.
MacDougal’s generally exciting, generally injured, sometimes wild. Plus, he’s ostensibly related to Somerled and if there’s anything that Vikings know how to do, it’s beating Detroit 2/3 of the time. Mayhem Mike is a good fit for the White Sox as they’re not going to depend on him as the most important member of the bullpen.
Lumsden was the Sox’ first-round pick a couple of years ago but he missed the 2005 season with an elbow injury and while he’s pitching pretty well for Birmingham, he’s hardly been dominating. I personally find Cortes more interesting - the White Sox picked him in the 7th round last year after everyone expected him to go to college. He’s got a decent heavy fastball, curve, and change and has pitched well for Kannapolis, though he’s still wild at times. He’s also just 19 (and looks about 10), so there’s a lot of time to refine his skills, the main caveat being there’s also a lot of time left for him to get injured. Lumsden and Cortes aren’t grade-A prospects, but with Greinke’s star fallen a lot, Howell out of town, and Mark Redman being the team’s All-Star, the Royals are smart to accumulate arms like this.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: July 24, 2006 at 09:16 PM | 22 comment(s)
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1. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: July 24, 2006 at 09:40 PM (#2110150)Lumsden saves children, but not the British children.
I don't know anything about Cortes and Lumsden yet, but it never hurts to have a few more pitching prospects around.
And then May of 2003 happened.
Cortes is interesting. Just 19 in March, he's in his first year in full-season ball and played for a Kannapolis team that has improved rapidly over the course of the season after an abysmal start. He's very raw, but throws 90-92 with an excellent curve ball. According to the excellent Minor League Splits DB, he's struggled at home and had difficulty in the first inning (a tendency not uncommon in young pitchers). I think he's the better prospect in the deal.
Nice deal by Dayton Moore, IMO.
-- MWE
The Royals have a lot of spare parts available for packages like this.
Because guys who blow late leads don't get clever nicknames. They get called things like "Fat Todd Jones."
Not that a pitcher would ever want to do such a thing...
Or just "Homophobe"
Meiklejohn is a Scots surname and it's not unusual to see family surnames become middle names, especially in a clan system. I know two people of Scots/Irish descent with surnames in the middle (Finneran and MacKay).
Only in the minds of posters here, who seem to believe the minor leagues are like Lake Wobegon -- all prospects are above average. If, as one poster above said, "both of those pitchers have a decent chance of turning into something good," then why EVER trade away minor leaguers?
Yes, they do. Not star potential, necessarily, but both are capable of contributing to a big-league team down the road. Any pitcher who can handle a full-season A-ball league at age 19 without imploding - as Cortes has done - is certainly a prospect.
Because it's hard to get something for nothing, and because sometimes it makes sense to trade something that you can't use for three-four years for something you can use right now. It depends on where you are in the building cycle. Lumsden and Cortes may never turn into something good - that's the chance you take - but the Royals have almost nothing in their farm system, pitching-wise, that's likely to turn into anything better.
-- MWE
It also seems like a good trade for the Royals. Lumsden's strikeout rate of 5.25 k/9 isn't dazzling but he does get groundball outs--so far it's been about 2.1 GBO/FBO. I don't know if his stuff has changed after the surgery but before, he had power lefty stuff with a fastball up to 94 mph and a good curve. A lefty with good stuff who can induce groundballs has a fair chance to be a solid starter.
What did you expect for MacDougal, Jim Thome? The Royals didn't exactly trade away Mariano Rivera here.
If you view players as stocks and investments and amend a notion of utility with a team's point in the success cycle, then this makes sense. MacDougal is basically a known quantity. You have a pretty good idea of what he will do in the near future, modulo sampling variability and injury. The two prospects have much higher uncertainty. They could be worse than MacDougal (probably will be worse), but they could be better (and possibly much better) in the future. The Royals, languishing in last place, have no need for certainty in performance now because performance now does very little for them. What they need is the potential for good performance later. MacDougal's reasonable stability is worth much more to the CWS than the Royals. Similarly, the two prospects mean very little to the CWS because of their inherent uncertainty.
The problem that teams get into is when they incorrectly confuse certainty with upside *cough* Pirates *cough*.
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