White Sox - Acquired Pierre
Chicago White Sox - Acquired OF Juan Pierre from the Los Angeles Dodgers for two unnamed minor league pitchers.
This is Great News! For John McCain!
Well, it’s certainly not great news for White Sox fans. True, the White Sox only have to pay roughly $9 million of Pierre’s salary over the next two years, but that’s like getting shot 4 times instead of 8 times. Pierre did contribute in 2009 and fill-in pretty decently for Ramirez during the suspension, but the smart money is him returning to being the same crappy punch-and-judy hitter he’s been for years. It’s made even worse that while he has the speed to play centerfield, he’s a weaker thrower with his good arm than Pete Gray was with his bad one.
No pitchers have been named as of yet, but considering the Dodgers are essentially gaining $9 million for a 5th outfielder, the minor league pitchers would have to be serial killers or fullonrapists to make this a poor move for the Dodgers.
ZiPS Projection - Juan Pierre (LF)
————————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
————————————————————————————————————————-
2010 434 65 125 17 5 1 33 28 29 38 .288 .339 .357 85
————————————————————————————————————————-
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Luis Polonia, Dave Collins, Eric Owens
ODDIBE
Offense
Top Quintile 0%
2nd Quintile 4%
Mid Quintile 9%
4th Quintile 21%
Low Quintile 65%
OPS+ OBP 3B Hits
160+ 0% .400+ 1% 10+ 4% 200+ 0%
140+ 0% .375+ 8% 5+ 41% 150+ 3%
130+ 0% .350+ 34%
120+ 0% .325+ 71% 2B
110+ 3% .300+ 93% 45+ 0%
100+ 11% 30+ 1%
90+ 31%
80+ 63%
60+ 89%
BA SLG HR SB
.350+ 2% .550+ 0% 50+ 0% 70+ 0%
.325+ 10% .500+ 0% 40+ 0% 50+ 14%
.300+ 34% .450+ 0% 30+ 0% 30+ 84%
.275+ 69% .400+ 9% 20+ 0% 10+ 100%
.250+ 93% .350+ 58% 10+ 0%
(Based on Projected PA)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 15, 2009 at 05:48 PM |
23 comment(s)
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1. Shooty is in the Trust TreeThat would be a throw off ... that would make you throw up!
/McCarver
As sad as this sounds, I'd definitely take that projection for Pierre. That .340 OBP is likely well above the Sox' current (projected) lineup.
I'd be interested in knowing -- if Pierre rates as +5 or +10 defensively in LF and puts up that line, where does that put him in comparison to an average LFer? Somewhere between replacement level and below average, I hope?
Depends a bit on the SB%, but assuming Pierre remains a high-percentage stealer, that projection's around 5 runs better than a replacement level LF offensively. So he'd project around a half win above replacement level before you add in defense. Give him +5 and he's about one win above replacement, one win below average. Give him +10 and he's a half win better.
I mean that if you add up the total bases in the above projection and divide it by at bats, you get ".357". Dan has ".387".
He's not a high % basestealer, unfortunately.
He hustles.
First, he hustles onto the field.
Then, he hustles to the batter's box.
He hustles to first.
Hustles to second.
To third.
Home.
And now, he's hustling to the White Sox.
...
There, I started it for him.
He's around 77.5% the last three years, that's not too bad. If he's 38 SB/11 CS with that projection, then yeah, he's still around +5 above a replacement LF. He would lose around .4 runs of value for each extra CS above that.
I thought you'd have a HAL like super computer cranking all that out by now. In fact, I had assumed you were already in suspended animation while having your thoughts transmitted via wires in your cerebral cortex to the internet via said computer.
Like the borg, only funnier. The Szymborg.
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