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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, December 09, 2007

White Sox - Acquired Quentin

Chicago White Sox - Acquired OF Carlos Quentin from the Arizona Diamondbacks for 1B Chris Carter.

Some people may fret that this is all the Diamondbacks could get for Quentin, but I just don’t see it.  While I think Quentin will be a good solid player, but he’s also coming off shoulder surgery for two outstanding issues (labrum and rotator cuff) and isn’t as young as many people might think (he’ll be 26 before the season ends).  The Diamondbacks are in competition for the playoffs again in 2008 and they have a lot of players that need playing time, so it makes sense to trade for a player that might help down the road, especially with Byrnes absolutely not going anywhere.

The White Sox think they’re competing in 2008, but they’re really not.  But Quentin still helps them as the team has gotten very little out of left the last few years and even a disappointing Quentin recovering from shoulder problems would be an upgrade.  I’m assuming Quentin’s in left because I doubt they’re going to move Dye out of right.

The Diamondbacks have been acquiring and trading away Chris Carters, so for those that haven’t seen either of them, the Diamondbacks now have Black Chris Carter while the Red Sox have White Chris Carter.  There should be a rule in baseball that people with identical first and last names should either be different races, play different positions, or be drastically different in quality and if they’re not, the younger one should be forced to change their first name.  I could handle Good Jeff D’Amico and Bad Jeff D’Amico and 3B Josh Fields/Ryan Braun and P Josh Fields/Ryan Braun, but I still have nightmares about the two white journeyman hurler Steve Montgomerys (Montgomeries?  Montgomerii?)

Both projections surprise me quite a bit.  The Quentin one shouldn’t - ZiPS has no idea that Quentin was playing throw a shoulder problem.  The Carter one is downright shocking since ZiPS is almost always quite cruel when projecting major league numbers for someone way down in the Sally League.  Maybe Levski snuck into my house and did some reprogramming?

2008 ZiPS Projection - Carlos Quentin
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   418 62 104 30 3 13 60 36 79   4 .249 .342 .428
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  485 85 132 37 4 19 83 48 83   9 .272 .372 .482
Pes. (15%)  358 46   81 23 1   9 45 27 77   2 .226 .298 .372
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Jermaine Dye, Darnell Coles

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Chris Carter, the Right One
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   503 42 120 25 2 25 80 48 127   2 .239 .311 .445
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  538 53 145 30 3 30 99 56 122   5 .270 .345 .504
Pes. (15%)  471 35 105 21 0 21 68 40 127   0 .223 .287 .401
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Hawk Harrelson, Tom Brunansky

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:34 PM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. joshtothemaxx Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:26 PM (#2639561)
I still don't know the difference between the Alex Gonzalii.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2639571)
Dan, are you sure you have the correct Chris Carter? You need Vernon Christopher Carter, 1B, RHB, as opposed to William Christopher Carter, DH, LHB? Because if the ZiPS projection you have here is indeed for the guy the Dbacks acquired from the Sox, all I can say, "Put him, coach, he's ready to play". Damn.
   3. The District Attorney Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2639575)
Because if the ZiPS projection you have here is indeed for the guy the Dbacks acquired from the Sox, all I can say, "Put him, coach, he's ready to play".
Ahead of Micah Owings??
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2639576)
Which Bobby Jones was the "good" one again?
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:43 PM (#2639578)
And while we know that, as U2 sing, Carterlove is Blindness, here is what Quentin, Carter and Carter look like.
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:44 PM (#2639580)
Ahead of Micah Owings??


Sheeet. Micah in LF, Byrnes to splinter-picking duty on the bench.
   7. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2639584)
Quentin's mean slugging percentage surprises me -- only .428? Not that a 20 point difference is a huge swing, but I would've figured it closer to .450. Even if he 'only' hits for that .770 OPS, though, that'll still be a huge improvement over what the Sox have had out there the past three seasons. And it'll also be nice to have a LFer who can actually get the ball to the infield on less than four hops.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:47 PM (#2639589)
Also, this article may be helpful

Quentin is a top candidate to play left field with the White Sox, although one evaluator thought the Sox would be better served to move Jermaine Dye to left field and play Quentin in right.

Quentin will begin swinging a bat in January after October surgery to repair a left labrum and rotator cuff and hopes to be ready by spring training, although the D-Backs believe he will open the season on the disabled list.


Quentin is an excellent defensive right fielder.
   9. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:00 PM (#2639597)
Quentin is an excellent defensive right fielder.

Most intelligent Sox fans would move Dye to LF in an instant, as at this point in his career he seems to be running in sand out there. Unfortunately, I think Dye will ultimately stay in RF because they're not going to ask the veteran to move for the 'young kid'. That's a real shame, too, because I'm pretty sure Dye was among the worst RFers based on UZR. His (Dye's) arm would play well above average for LF and his slow-feet wouldn't be that big of an issue.
   10. shoewizard Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2639599)
That CAN'T be the right Carter. The K total is the giveaway.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:09 PM (#2639604)
I'm still wrapping my head around 3B Mark McLemore and P Mark McLemore. That's not exactly a common name.
   12. KDub's CellPiece (BLtDH) Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2639605)
I'm not even sure Dye will be on the team past the all star break.
   13. faketeams Posted: December 09, 2007 at 10:13 PM (#2639607)
Quentin had his shoulder surgery on the front shoulder when he hits. Does anyone know how this affects HR production, given the drops experienced by JD Drew and Mark Teahen following their off-season surgeries on their front hitting shoulders in 2006?
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:34 AM (#2639639)
I'll double-check the projection.
   15. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:46 AM (#2639643)
I'm still wrapping my head around 3B Mark McLemore and P Mark McLemore. That's not exactly a common name.

How about 3B Steve Ontiveros and P Steve Ontiveros?
   16. Robert S. Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2639647)
That CAN'T be the right Carter. The K total is the giveaway.

That, or the D-backs have found the position player equivalent of Liriano.

A man can dream.

A man can dream.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:02 AM (#2639651)
Uh-oh, you guys are going to be mad - after talking about getting the Chris Carters confused, I still got them confused.
   18. Honkie Kong Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:04 AM (#2639652)
Uh-oh, you guys are going to be mad - after talking about getting the Chris Carters confused, I still got them confused.

Atleast there were no TD or recv yards column in the projection.
   19. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:26 AM (#2639661)
The truth is out there.
   20. Kant Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:32 AM (#2639662)
All of this raises the question: Why did we trade away the white Chris Carter in the first place?
   21. Silencio Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:32 AM (#2639663)
So is 239/311/445 the right one?
   22. 1k5v3L Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2639670)
20: Because AZ doesn't need a DH.

So basically the "right" Chris Carter is already a better hitter than Richie Sexson. I'll take that.
   23. William K. Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2639684)
Pretty funny that Quentin's top comp is Dye.

The AAA Carter didn't have a position to play for the D-backs. What they've done is basically gotten Conor Jackson's replacement when he gets more expensive several years down the road, as well as add a prospect with plus power in the system after the graduation of Young, Reynolds and Upton. A- Carter's 25 homers were more than any D-back minor leaguer hit last season.
   24. johnny_mostil Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2639686)
Unfortunately for the Snakes, as OmarGitRDone implied, this Chris Carter is an absolutely terrible first baseman, and I mean terrible. He really needs to be used as a DH, which means either the Snakes need to (a) hope he gets a lot better really fast, (b) petition for a rule change allowing a DH in NL games, or (c) trade him to some AL team in a couple of years.
   25. 1k5v3L Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2639689)
Actually, I implied it about the Carter, who was traded to BOS, and not the Carter who was traded to ARI. With the first guy, the Dbacks tried for three years to teach him to play any position, and failed. Now they've got three more years to teach the second guy to play 1b. Time is on their side.
   26. johnny_mostil Posted: December 10, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2639704)
Now they've got three more years to teach the second guy to play 1b.

And how often does that work? Most young right-handed players don't play first base unless they are slow, awkward, and/or can't throw (and often all three). Most right-handed first basemen in the majors played third, caught, or played the outfield in the minors. In fact, I think all of the regulars at first in 2007 who threw right-handed played C, OF, 3B in the minors.

A 20-year-old kid playing first is a yellow flag unless he's left-handed.

If Carter can learn to be a decent first baseman, then he has some value because he can drive the ball, but if he can't, he's worth a lot less, frankly.
   27. AROM Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:03 AM (#2639768)
I still don't know the difference between the Alex Gonzalii.


One is Alex Gonzalez and the other is Sea Bass Gonzalez.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: December 10, 2007 at 06:01 AM (#2639793)
Is he different from Sea Bass Janikowski?
   29. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 10, 2007 at 06:49 AM (#2639808)
Cripes. Exact duplicate names are way beyond my comprehension, as I used to get confused by Ramon Ortiz and Russ Ortiz!

But nothing will ever top =6236"]Greg Adams (mid-20s, from British Columbia) and <a >Greg Adams (mid-20s, from British Columbia)</a> both playing on the same line for the Vancouver Canucks for part of the 1988-89 season.

That's just crazy.
   30. 1k5v3L Posted: December 10, 2007 at 06:59 AM (#2639812)
I always confused Greg Adams with Bryan Adams, mid-20s, from Canada.
   31. 1k5v3L Posted: December 10, 2007 at 07:05 AM (#2639813)
RTG, you do realize that the entire extended Ramon Ortiz family can fit in Russ Ortiz's pants, right?
   32. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:03 AM (#2639821)
I still don't know the difference between the Alex Gonzalii.

For a while, we thought we could get away with the bad Alex Gonzalez and the worse Alex Gonzalez, but bad went to worse awfully quickly. Expensive Alex Gonzalez vs. cheap Alex Gonzalez worked for a while, but the cheap (aka original worse) one got expensive and the expensive one got cheap then retired (I think). Haven't seen either for a while so my memory may be off, but I recall cheap, original worse Gonzalez as blanco and expensive, original bad Gonzalez as mui blanco.

So that's expensive/cheap bad/worse mui blanco Alex Gonzalez vs. cheap/expensive worse blanco Alex Gonzalez. I don't see how you could confuse those two.

The easiest thing is to realize that one of them has a ring, the other played for the Cubs. Also one of them was once considered the possible next Alex Rodriguez (though that was probably just somebody confusing two hispanic SS named Alex) while the other's upside was the bad Alex Gonzalez.
   33. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:19 AM (#2639822)
The Alex Gonzalezes should've been clear since the 2003 post-season! One is Bartman Gonzalez. The other is Weaver Gonzalez. The most-similar by ages look like a cruel joke though.
   34. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:20 AM (#2639823)
Now I'm even more confused, Walt.

I know one of them hit a homer off Jeff Weaver to win a WS game.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:33 AM (#2639825)
This would all be easier if they replaced the names on jerseys with LahmanIDs.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:34 AM (#2639826)
Now I'm even more confused, Walt.

Then my work in this thread is done!
   37. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 10, 2007 at 08:34 AM (#2639827)
Even if I were as smart as MGL thinks he is, I don't think I could understand the explanation in 32.

(Just kidding, MGL).
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:03 PM (#2639850)
I remember on usenet some years back, I made an unknowing poster into the straight man after he referred to the Good Alex Gonzalez and I kept acting confused that I couldn't find the good one. The poor guy eventually took it to e-mail as he tried to slowly explain to me that the Good Alex Gonzalez played for the Marlins, but I was having none of it.
   39. Steve Threadair Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:51 PM (#2639852)
The most-similar by ages look like a cruel joke though.


Wow! Thanks for that... The Devil has to be involved...
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2639877)
Seriously, the thing about the Bobby Joneses still confuses me. Anybody have any help?
   41. Spahn Insane Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2639995)
I still don't know the difference between the Alex Gonzalii.

Those of us who attended The Bartman Game™ sure as hell do.
   42. Spahn Insane Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2639998)
And that's despite the fact that both Alex Gonzeliii played in that game.
   43. Dr Love Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2640031)
This is nothing. Try being a hockey fan when the Sutter brothers played.
   44. Charles S. will not yield to this monkey court Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:48 PM (#2640041)
They should all be like the Chris Youngs.
One gigantic white pitcher and one smaller, black outfielder. That's how you avoid confusion.
   45. The District Attorney Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2640081)
I dunno if I can tell you anything about the Bobby Joneses that B-R can't :-) Bobby M. Jones was an African-American, lefty LOOGY; very marginal. Bobby J. Jones was a white, righty starting pitcher... a hyped prospect coming up (I remember him being the compensation pick for some big free agent loss -- maybe Strawberry? -- and then he put up big minor league #s)... and, unlike most '90s Mets pitching prospects, did in fact end up being a decent pitcher (not great, but decent), with a career highlighted by a playoff one-hitter.
   46. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2640096)
Whoa! There's a new Mark McLemore!

Also, these Chris Carters both go by their middle name?!?!? Obviously from now on we should refer exclusively to "Vernon Carter" and "Billy Carter". But which of those is which again?
   47. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 10, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2640304)
Try being a hockey fan when the Sutter brothers played.

It's too bad Mark Recchi, Joe Reekie, and Mike Ricci never played together.
   48. kwarren Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:14 AM (#2640796)
Uh-oh, you guys are going to be mad - after talking about getting the Chris Carters confused, I still got them confused.

We already had that figured out Dan. Besides it wasn't you, it was ZIPS.
   49. Dr Love Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:33 AM (#2640820)
It's too bad Mark Recchi, Joe Reekie, and Mike Ricci never played together.


Recchi and Ricci did.

Ulf Samuelsson and Kjell Samuelsson played together too. And of course there's the Sedin twins.
   50. Urban Faber Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2640823)
And that's despite the fact that both Alex Gonzeliii played in that game.

Things began to favor the Marlins as soon as they removed their Alex from the game.
   51. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:29 AM (#2640871)
"I dunno if I can tell you anything about the Bobby Joneses that B-R can't :-) Bobby M. Jones was an African-American, lefty LOOGY; very marginal. Bobby J. Jones was a white, righty starting pitcher... a hyped prospect coming up (I remember him being the compensation pick for some big free agent loss -- maybe Strawberry? -- and then he put up big minor league #s)... and, unlike most '90s Mets pitching prospects, did in fact end up being a decent pitcher (not great, but decent), with a career highlighted by a playoff one-hitter."

So the white one was the good one?
   52. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 11, 2007 at 05:28 AM (#2641000)
I get the Pedro Martinezes confused.
   53. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:39 AM (#2642146)
This is nothing. Try being a hockey fan when the Sutter brothers played.

Darryl and Duane
Brent and Brian
Rich and Ron (twins, had their full names printed on their jerseys when on the same team)

Only one has made it to the HOF (Brian).

Of the four "major" leagues in North America, hockey is probably the one with the most brother/father/son sets.
Even great players (Mario Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, Patrick Roy, Mark Messier) had little-known brothers that played in the NHL.
   54. The District Attorney Posted: December 12, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2642181)
So the white one was the good one?
Yes.

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