White Sox - Acquired Swisher
Chicago White Sox - Acquired OF Nick Swisher from the Oakland A’s for P Gio Gonzalez, P Faustino de los Santos, and OF Ryan Sweeney.
Like the Haren trade, this one comes completely out of left field for me. Whoever’s writing BA’s White Sox prospect list has to be mighty annoyed right now, with the team’s two top prospects leaving along with another top-prospect-by-virture-of-really-thin-system. The A’s do kind of have a corner player logjam as Swisher isn’t a centerfielder, but I have to think that they weren’t originally going to trade Swisher this offseason but couldn’t turn down the package offered.
Swisher still doesn’t make the White Sox a contender by the remotest stretch of the imagination, but at least they got a good player that will provide a boost to the team. The White Sox really need to start moving on their eventual goal of dumping Crede (wouldn’t it have been nice for the team if they had done it after 2005 when Crede had by far the best year of is career and was showcased in the playoffs?) because they have their own leftfield situation to sort out. As I imply above, Swisher’s not a centerfielder, but then again, Jerry Owens is not a major leaguer, so Swisher could very well end up there.
As many have noted, Gonzalez and de los Santos are excellent prospects. It’s too early for me to do a projection for the latter (there’s probably no chance he starts becoming relevant towards the near-future of the major league team until 2009). As I mentioned in the White Sox ZiPS thread, Gonzalez would be best served to get serious time in AAA. Sweeney’s 5th outfielder material.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Nick Swisher
—————————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DR
—————————————————————————————————————————
Projection 518 96 141 31 1 31 90 86 137 2 .272 .384 .515 131 4
—————————————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%) 556 116 157 37 1 38 124 101 140 4 .282 .399 .556 145 8
Pes. (15%) 475 71 106 23 0 21 74 69 144 0 .223 .325 .404 88 1
—————————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Pat Burrell, Jeff Burroughs
2008 ZiPS Projection - Ryan Sweeney
—————————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DR
—————————————————————————————————————————
Projection 529 50 138 25 1 11 56 51 85 9 .261 .326 .374 87 3
—————————————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%) 573 64 165 31 3 16 80 64 78 18 .288 .360 .436 112 6
Pes. (15%) 471 35 108 20 0 7 45 37 84 4 .229 .286 .316 61 -1
—————————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Rowland Office, Mel Alamada
2008 ZiPS Projection - Gio Gonzalez
—————————————————————————————————
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
—————————————————————————————————
Projection 7 11 28 28 148 154 91 27 80 122 5.53 77
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 10 10 31 31 171 156 82 24 78 157 4.32 99
Pes. (15%) 4 11 23 23 114 141 91 26 71 78 7.18 59
—————————————————————————————————
Top Comps: Oliver Perez, Moe Drabowsky
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 04, 2008 at 12:13 PM |
95 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. MSI Posted: January 04, 2008 at 03:10 PM (#2660029)Swisher is controlled for 4-5 years cheaply and could be a very good hitter in US Cellular field. He's also marketable in the Chisox market.
Meanwhile, the A's restocked their farm system with several B+ prospects from the White Sox and D-backs...couldn't they have just drafted better in the first place? They got no slam dunks and now their team sucks, and hardcore A's fans dissapointed.
I'm pretty sure they've already sent the book to the printer, so all they'd have to do is slide names up the list.
I've been anti-Sweeney for some time now (perhaps because of a bet I once made about whether he or Matt Murton would be a better draft choice), but he's still quite young and could well turn into a league average starter over time. Stick him in Sacramento and see if he can go from a 5th OF to a 3rd.
What gigantic improvements have been made to move them from dead last to "pretty good"?
They got Nick Swisher!
Seriously, tho, it'll take a whole lot of luck for the ChiSox as they currently stand to compete. If "compete" actually means "finish third," then it's possible (due as much to the current state of the Twins & Royals as Chicago's supposed burgeoning excellence). Barring localized bubonic plague breakouts in Detroit & Cleveland (& Boston or New York), Chicago has no shot in any hell of getting within flying distance of a post-season berth.
Jose Uribe - 74
Scott Podsednik - 73
Jerry Owens - 67
Darin Erstad - 68
If you can replace these guys with average players, I think you get a lot better. Maybe not to pretty good, but at least to "not terrible."
I think Swisher goes into LF. Not sure how good Podsednik was with the glove, but I'm guessing Swisher is at least a moderate downgrade defensively.
Is Quentin good enough to play CF?
They've replaced Podsednik with Swisher, so that should help out, but it's not nearly enough to move their offense to above average.
They still have pitching to address. They were 12th in ERA and 11th in RA/G, and trading for Swisher and sending out Garland didn't help that any.
Sure, but average major-league hitters don't exactly grow on trees. With Swisher, I think the White Sox now have two players that ZIPS projects as being better than league-average at their position - Thome being the other one.
Swisher is probably half a win better than Podsednik with the glove in a corner OF spot. This isn't the relevant comparison if we're looking at the 2008 vs. the 2007 Sox, however, as Pods barely played last season.
Swisher
Konerko
Thome
Dye
Quentin
Crede/Fields
Pierzynski
Richar
I do like Carlos Quentin and expect him to be good...I see solid hitters 1 through 8. Though at some spots there might be OBP problems, especially in the bottom of the lineup.
I always thought Swisher was a butcher with the glove. Was Podsednik really that bad?
2008 White Sox Projections
ZiPS really dislikes the White Sox.
Perhaps you are thinking of Dan Johnson? Pods fared surprisingly poor at the defensive metrics considering his speed. I have never heard a White Sox fan say anything positive about his D.
I always thought Swisher was a butcher with the glove.
Nah, he's solid - a slightly more athletic Brad Wilkerson.
He isn't a butcher, not in a corner. He is bad in CF. He isn't your stereotypical "Moneyball" OBP corner slug.
I'm not so sure if that's going to happen. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Williams move either Konerko or Thome for pitching at this point. That would make room for both Quentin and Swisher, and it's the kind of out-of-left-field, "I'm not done yet" move I've come to expect from Williams. Both players are signed to fairly reasonable deals at this point (Konerko at 12M a year through 2010, Thome I think is at about 8M next year, with an option for '09). Of course, if Konerko is traded and Swisher is moved to 1B, that just opens up the CF hole again.
Dye and Crede both have to re-establish their value. I think Konerko and Thome do too, to a certain extent. But at this point, I am completely confused by how the market works. Is an aging Konerko a bargain at 12M? Is it better to be signed to a lengthy contract or a short one for purposes of trade value? I have no clue, but I'm sure that the huge haul for Swisher was in large part due to his very reasonable contract. Kenny Williams LOVES certainty, from a cost and a roster perspective (I believe that everyone expected to be on the 25-man roster other than Cabrera is signed through at least '08).
I'd love to see a trade for Anthony Reyes, maybe involving Crede if the Cards move Rolen. Of course, I may be overrating his talent based on his great performance vs. the White Sox in an '06 game (1-hitter? the Sox still won). I don't know what's worse, Colon or Floyd/Broadway.
Of course.
Crede won't be moved before Spring Training, I think. He needs to show that he can actually play before teams will give up anything for him.
Handicapping at the moment, I'd put Milwaukee and San Francisco as the front runners since they each can move someone that can start (Capuano, Lowry, Claudio Vargas) without disrupting their teams. Tony Gwynn Jr. is possibly another player that the White Sox might have interest in. Can Ethier play centerfield?
Yep, and Konerko becomes a 5 and 10 guy in May or June of this year. Thome has a full no-trade as well. I'm holding out for a Konerko trade this winter. If getting Swisher enables the Sox to trade Konerko for a young player or two, I'll reluctantly accept the Swisher deal.
Runs per 150 games
LF: +14 (97 games)
CF: -32 (14 games)
RF: +19 (102 games)
1B: -7 (103 games)
And from Ken Williams:
So he'd be very good as a corner outfielder, but atrocious in CF.
Which of course means Williams will put him in CF?
"We're going with the youth movement, baby. At least Billy is committed to it. He's not half-assing it."
Hell, Chavvy sounds like he might be a lurker.
Which of course means Williams will put him in CF?
For now. I'm hoping that Williams makes another move to make room for Swisher at a more appropriate position.
Sample size. If I were looking at those numbers for the first time and had never seen Nick play, I'd presume he'd be slightly above average in center, given his performance in the corners.
Indeed. Those corner OF numbers are what pretty good CFs look like when they get moved to the corners. The CF sample is tiny. Dewan's not as fond of him, but still sees him as above average at the corners.
Swisher's slightly below average in CF, I think. His bat makes up for it, though. I'd have been ok with him in CF for the A's this year, but only for 2008. It's not a well you want to keep drawing water from. He tends to wear down a bit, too, so I don't think it's a good idea to keep him in CF everyday. They need to give him a breather at 1st or dh on occasion.
60 games is a tiny sample size?
The UZR data only goes through mid-2007, which is 14 games in CF for Swisher.
The Sox can't afford even a below-average centerfielder. They already have one of the (if not the) worst defensive right fielders in the league.
With Swished in center, the White Sox team would have absolutely atrocious defense this year. They're going to be above-average in only one place (left field) and average in only two other positions (shortstop and second base). Otherwise, they'll be below-average at best in six defensive positions. And this for a team that already has a below-average offense.
Dye is not that bad. With a ZiPS rating of "Fr," he can't be in the conversation for Worst AL RF.
There's not a ZiPS rating for Quentin in CF, I wonder how he would play there?
A lot depends on his health. If he's healthy, he's merely below-average. But he spent most of the season last year playing hurt, and was awful. I'm not holding my breath that he'll be better in 2008.
There's not a ZiPS rating for Quentin in CF, I wonder how he would play there?'
I don't know whether Quentin has ever played center at any level.
Nobody is going to be any good while injured, but if he played hurt all year, and still rated a "Fr" from ZiPS, then you'd think he'd be close to average when healthy.
I don't know where Dan gets his defensive ratings, but Dye was basically immobile at the end of last year.
draft better guys like Swisher?
I have Dye at -10 (range) over the last 2 years, PMR had him 5 outs worse than average in 2007, Chone had him at -4 runs in 2007. Add in OF aging in the 30s and that gives him a FR for me.
In the games in which the Yankees played the White Sox...you could not convince me Jermaine Dye wasn't the worst OF in baseball. Exceptionally slow footed in the OF and then loved to dive at balls he had no chance at.
I am assuming "Fr" means "fair." In any case, both the quantitative ratings for Dye seem much better than "worst RF in the league."
If he was "immobile" for any amount of time and can still pull -4 to -10, that sounds pretty decent.
There is no justice in the world. That got Eric Byrnes $10 million a year.
Except that Byrnes is fast footed, and arguably is the best defensively left fielder in the game right now. I'm not a big EByrnes fan by any stretch of the imagination, but only a blind person can't tell the difference b/w Byrnes and Dye. That being said, Byrnes isn't that good in RF, mostly because he takes wrong routes on the ball far too often over there.
kind of like gabe kapler?
Not if they trade Konerko to the Angels for Saunders and a discounted Gary Matthews Jr. Hasn't Ozzie been quoted saying he's a big fan of Sarge Lite?
Note: I have not heard this as an actual rumor.
*impulse to strangle Dye reawakened*
Laugh all you want. But the Brewers just threw him some money because they like his hustle. And his zazz. He's got zazz out the azz!
It certainly is, yes.
The Angels have a first baseman already. What do they need Paul Konerko for?
I'd like to see Brian Anderson get another chance out there, but I know that's not happening.
Ugh. I'd rather watch Jerry Owens all year.
Oh please. People can never pass up an opportunity to snark can they? Even if that snark is worthless.
He got a non-guaranteed contract... if he does make the team he will get 800k, which can't be more than a hair over the minimum for a guy with his service time considering that the minimum for someone with 0 days service is 390k.
And did you ever think that the Brewers signed him more-so because he was a freely available cheap player who had been a solid reserve OF in the past and could maybe be one again rather than the zazz you snarked at?
To be the DH, backup 1B, and backup C of course! Between Konerko and Figgins they could have every position covered! (Why does ZiPS give Konerko a catcher rating?)
The Angels may prefer Thome if they feel like trading for a DH, but I was responding to a comment about trading Konerko. Is Vlad likely to be moved to full-time DH anytime soon considering the need for him to stay healthy and the overabundance of OFs on the roster? My guess would be no but it isn't really based on anything. Have the Angels said what they plan to do with the outfield situation?
The Angels may prefer Thome if they feel like trading for a DH, but I was responding to a comment about trading Konerko. Is Vlad likely to be moved to full-time DH anytime soon considering the need for him to stay healthy and the overabundance of OFs on the roster? My guess would be no but it isn't really based on anything. Have the Angels said what they plan to do with the outfield situation?"
I would think Kendry Morales, if he is in the Angels long-term plans, would be a DH candidate.
And as Tango's recent post at the Book Blog showed, average CF should be +10 at the corners or about what Swisher is.
I'm perfectly fine with a Quentin, Swisher, Dye OF until JD either gets hurt or his contract expired. By the way White Sox CF's posted a .628 OPS last year while playing slightly above average defense. Swisher's .899 projected OPS with slightly below average defense is what a 6 win upgrade?
Dye's contract is up after the 2010 season. You're pretty patient.
Singles drop from 77 to 74
Doubles drop from 31 to 29
Triples stay at 1
HRs jump from 27 to 33
Walks jump from 88 to 92
Average rises 1 point.
OBP rises 5 points
SLG rises 32 points.
Swisher, a swith-hitter will see most of his at-bats from the left side of the plate, as most MLB pitchers a right handed. I took into account the left-handed batter park affects. I have his walks increasing instead of decreasing. I have his double tally dropping slightly, instead of remaining the same and I have his HR output rising to 33 instead of 31 as his CWS dips has him.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
People need to realize the average corner player (RF,LF, 1B, 3B) has an OBP around .333 and middle player (SS, 2B, CF, C) is around .320.
Cabrera is a 50 point OBP improvement at SS, Swisher is a 50 point improvement at an OF spot, and Quentin can't be any lower than Anderson/Owens. This is probably an improvement of 80-100 runs of offense from '07. Ther ewas probably a slight downgrade at 2B, so maybe it's 68-80 rather than 80-100, but it is an improvement. The issue is whether the runs allowed is going to go up or down. Garland being gone is probably in increase in RA, but the RA from the bullpen will probably be down so I'm calling it a wash until I know more.
26 points. Uribe's got a career .295 OBP, Cabrera's at .321. I think that most of whatever little they gained on offense by switching from Uribe to Cabrera, they give up on defense.
I'm not impressed with Orlando Cabrera at all.
I can't speak for Ted Williams, but I would guess that he was talking about team improvement over last year, not merely player upgrades.
Uribe's OBP last year was .284. That's still not 50, but it's an improvement of 37 points.
Uribe's defense wasn't so hot either last year, right? I'm not expecting career averages. I'd say there's a decent chance that Uribe never does anything good for the team again and a small chance that he switches to 2B and goes nuts on the league for some inexplicable reason..
It's more like .330 for middle guys and .350 for corner guys. Last year, the middle guys hit .270/.332/.410, while the corner guys (plus DH and PH) hit .277/.349/.453.
Dye's contract is up after the 2010 season. You're pretty patient.
Jermaine Dye is signed to a 2 year contract with a mutual option. If that option is exercised (very unlikely) it would be as a DH (Thome will be gone by then).
That makes my stomach hurt.
Wouldn't it be easier to list the spots that DON'T have an OBP problem? Wherever Thome and Swisher hit will be fine. Other than that they don't have anybody with a .350 OBP. Konerko, maybe, but for a 1B that is nothing to brag about.
Yep. Also the "Cabrera hit well last year" trap. :-)
ZiPS may be delusional but it projects Cabrera to 276/330/372 and Uribe to 250/302/427. 28 points of OBP vs 55 points of SLG -- you'd still rather have the OBP (and I'd still rather roll the dice with Cabrera too) but it's pretty close and NOT a huge upgrade offensively. And whatever they gain at SS, they probably lose at 2B. Swisher in CF and probably Quentin in LF are big upgrades offensively.
And 80 runs? People forget that the Sox finished last in scoring in the AL last year ... despite playing in one of the best hitters parks. Give them 80 runs and they jump up only to 9th ... not impressive in a hitters park. They need to add about 150 runs to be a good offensive team (4th).
And given their starting rotation, they are going to need to be a good offensive team to finish 500 I suspect. Garland 2008 may not be so hot but Garland 2007 is going to be hard to replace.
If you look at the median (which I normally prefer, because the mean can sometimes be skewed if you have several very-high or very-low achievers at a position) instead of the mean:
Among corner players with 200 or more PAs a year ago, the median was .274/.348/.453.
Among middle players with 200 or more PAs, the median was .270/.331/.408.
Not too far off the mean.
-- MWE
Among middle players with 200 or more PAs, the median was .270/.331/.408.
What you'd want in that scenario -- at least I think it' cleaner (and you don't necessarily have to drop the low PA guys) -- is to:
1. count up the total number of PA in the group
2. sort the data by OBP
3. count up from top (or bottom) until you got to half the PAs
4. repeat by other stats
I'm trying to decide how comfy I am with a "median" line of 274/348/453 vs. saying "the median BA is 274, the median OBP is 348 and the median SLG is 453." At least I assume that's how those numbers were generated. If not, what did you sort by, OPS?
I'm not smart enough to convert OPS into runs, but the Sox had absolutely horrible production at four positions last season. At two spots -- CF and 3B -- the Sox combined for sub-.650 OPS'. Sox SS' weren't much better, ending up with a combined .659 OPS and Sox LFers were still well below average at a .731 OPS. With Fields, Cabrera, Quentin and Swisher, the Sox look to be making huge additions to those four spots.
Of course, as currently constructed they look like a pretty terrible defensive team. I see two above average defenders (Quentin and Cabrera) with everybody else being average to well-below average.
Quentin played 6 games (out of 85) in CF for Tucson back in 2006
See, I don't think he is. A little bit better, maybe, but it's not a huge upgrade. Cabrera is not a good hitter.
I'm not smart enough to do that either. Fields (785 ZiPS) and Swisher (899) are huge upgrades (if Swisher is in CF). Cabrera though projects at 702 which is a pretty small upgrade (and little upgrade over Uribe's projection). Quentin's a bit of a wild card but he's projected at 770 so a small upgrade. But, without checking the numbers, 2B would seem to project worse. Thome's projected for a pretty substantial decline. Dye holds steady, Konerko down a smidgen (also possibly traded). The bench looks as bad or worse. It's still an offense with only two above-average hitters (Swisher way above in CF) for their position and at least one sinkhole. And that was achieved giving up some pitching and probably a little defense (Fields at 3B and Swisher in CF).
It could all work out. Thome, Konerko, Swisher, Fields, Dye could be a very formidable middle. Cabrera and ??? could get on at a league average pace. 2B could surprise and be OK. But it's a stretch.
The team OPS+ last year was 87. Iguchi (251/340/382) and Luis Terrero (231/348/376) were at 88. Pierzynski (263/309/403, 83 OPS+) was a little more typical of your average Sox batter (team OBP was just 318). Now their "true talent" wasn't THAT bad but they've got a LONG way to go to get to average -- and they're still pretty old at key positions. Maybe these acquisitions plus regression to the mean get them there, but average offense and that pitching staff is not a strong combination.
Thome has a full no-trade.
Konerko wasn't bad last year (.841 OPS, which is about his career average), just not great. I'd say that's about what you can expect from him in the future.
That doesn't explain Giants fans, though :)
"Ouch, my back!"
or
"Hey, potential, get back here!"
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main