Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

White Sox - Signed Garland

Chicago White Sox - Signed P Jon Garland to a 3-year, $29 million contract.

I might have tried waiting a little longer and see what I could get for him, but there’s very little wrong with this signing.  It gives Garland $7 million in 2006, which he’d get anyway in arbitration and leaves a 2-year, $22 million contract.  Even if he’s only league-average again, he’s not drastically overpaid and it’s only a fairly short-term deal.  While someone like Burnett has a better chance of developing into a top-of-the-rotation star, Garland’s downside is probably significantly less as he’s always been at least average and is almost always healthy.  No need to dump Contreras quite a bit - a few of the remaining teams might be pretty desperate once the free agent market is closed.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2005 at 09:22 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Spivey Posted: December 28, 2005 at 09:47 PM (#1797340)
No need to dump Contreras quite a bit - a few of the remaining teams might be pretty desperate once the free agent market is closed.

They wouldn't even have to trade him after all the FAs sign. They could always hold onto him in case one of their pitchers get hurt, or if he pitches well in 2006 they could move him at the trade deadline to a team that's had injuries.
   2. stealfirstbase Posted: December 28, 2005 at 11:58 PM (#1797558)
yaaaaaaaaay. Just don't trade McCarthy and you'll get a gold star, Mr. Williams.

Garland isn't a bargain, but this seems about right for him. He's been very good for about 40 starts now, from the end of 2004 through 2005. If he keeps the walks and homers down, he could be in the league of Mark Mulder, Chris Young, and Carlos Silva as guys who don't strike guys out but succeed anyone throughout the length of that contract.

Now when does the Jose Contreras debry begin, and who's leading the pack? The Yankees? The Red Sox? Tampa Bay? The Orioles? The Mariners? Honestly, I could list about 22 teams in need of a good, inexpensive one year starter in a walk year that have aspirations of contending. I'd love to see the Yankees reacquire him, and he could pitch for just about anyone.

Nice to know ye, Jose, but let the games begin.
   3. stealfirstbase Posted: December 29, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1797567)
<strike>as guys who don't strike guys out but succeed anyone throughout the length of that contract.</strike>

Let us never speak of this horrid sentence again.
   4. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 29, 2005 at 12:05 AM (#1797583)
The Rangers could make use of Contreras.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind if Williams keeps all six, at least until the season starts.
   5. OlePerfesser Posted: December 29, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1797606)
Even if he’s only league-average again, he’s not drastically overpaid...

How quickly we become accustomed to rapid inflation.
   6. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 29, 2005 at 09:21 AM (#1798263)
Is there any chance in hell Garland is going to be worth $22M over two years? I guess, given the market, if he can match 2005 he'll be close. But I doubt a league-average starting pitcher is truly worth more than $4M per year. I guess with the market inflation you are okay paying an average starter around $6M or even $7M.

Looking at Garland's numbers, it appears that his future will be a result of his control. His walk rate dropped from a career .097 BB/BF coming into last year to .052 in 2005. If he can maintain at least some of that improvement, I would guess he can remain an above-average pitcher. Otherwise, I think he's going to be grossly overpaid.

(I would guess that, in a league with an average ERA of 4.50, a starting pitcher would have to have an ERA of 3.30 over 220 innings in order to be truly worth $11M. Garland's career-best is 3.50.)
   7. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 29, 2005 at 11:14 AM (#1798329)
err, in a league with a 4.50 ERA, there's usually only 2-3 guys below 3.30

that's premier starter money at that point.

if 7-8m is the going rate for league average starters (see: benson, kris, loaiza, esteban, clement, matt) then for a guy who can give you 200 innings of slightly better than that is worth nearly garlands last two years.

it's just the price of doing business.
   8. Bromadrosis Posted: December 29, 2005 at 02:21 PM (#1798375)
How quickly we become accustomed to rapid inflation.

Seems like only yesterday this site was destroying Beane for doling out around 7M per yer for league-average Loaiza.
   9. Bromadrosis Posted: December 29, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1798377)
Oh, it was yesterday.
   10. Bromadrosis Posted: December 29, 2005 at 02:23 PM (#1798378)
7 million per YARRRRRRR!
   11. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 29, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1798746)
He's been very good for about 40 starts now, from the end of 2004 through 2005.


Garland had very similar seasons in 2004 and 2005 except for a 40% reduction in his walk rate and a 25% reduction in his HR rate. Is there something White Sox fans can point to for the change? Is there any historical comparisons?
   12. VG Posted: December 29, 2005 at 06:52 PM (#1798763)
Garland had very similar seasons in 2004 and 2005 except for a 40% reduction in his walk rate and a 25% reduction in his HR rate. Is there something White Sox fans can point to for the change?

He quit nibbling so much early in the count. His changeup improved drastically, and he had more confidence in it.
   13. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 29, 2005 at 06:53 PM (#1798766)
The HR rate difference can probably be explained by a combination of park effect (Comiskey wasn't quite the launching pad in 2005 it has been in years past) and statistical variance. It's one reason he'll likely regress a bit in 2006.

His walk rate seems to be a real area of improvement. He seemed much more confident this year and much more willing to throw strikes and allow the ball to be put in play.
   14. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 29, 2005 at 07:02 PM (#1798779)
He quit nibbling so much early in the count. His changeup improved drastically, and he had more confidence in it.

Yep, this was his first year with a legitimate offspeed pitch. Before, he was pretty much fastball and sinker all the way. He would throw a curve and a change, but not for strikes.
   15. Kyle S Posted: December 29, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1798847)
Where is the ZiPS projection?
   16. Shoeless Don Posted: December 29, 2005 at 08:00 PM (#1798874)
Greetings...

Shoeless Don is my name...lifelong ChiSox fan, born in Illinois and living outside Tucson, just got invited to join you fine folks from my friend Odie...and known for my nervous typing habit of using elipses while I gather my thoughts...

In Playboy Bunny fashion...

Turn Ons: a stolen base...sweet hit and run...a 1-2-3 no walk inning...winners with heart....my wife, 49er Janice, and my long-haired dachshunds Clapton and Hendrix....

Turn Offs: stats as the end-all, be all to the game...too many cliches from Hawk....rudeness and lack of respect...and those who don't believe my namesake and Buck Weaver deserve some consideration for reinstatement....

Cub fans have been removed from my turn off list, as they have become more tolerable since a SouthSide World Series win....and I promised to now pull for the Cubs also, since my Cub fan friends pulled for the ChiSox...all is now love...smooch, smooch Cubbies...

To the point of the original post....Garland is an interesting case...and I think he is the epitome of understanding Kenny Williams architectural plans...

He was forced into action maybe sooner than he should have been a few years back as a starter...but he prospered through some years, spent a little time in the pen, and is now matured and presumably ready to maintain his game at a high level....

Williams did the same thing with Buehrle, working him out of the pen for a while...it has made both better pitchers...he is now doing the same with Cotts, and appears to be heading that way with McCarthy...building up arm strength, maturity, and professionalism in a less "trial by error" fashion...

I believe both McCarthy and Cotts will soon mold into starters...and I look for Tracy, Reynoso, Bajaneru, Munoz and Haegger to fill the current pen roles and move their way up behind McCarthy and Cotts....

I think Contreras stays put, contract or not...and the ChiSox will ride and milk him as far as possible...maybe through the season, maybe as mid-season trade bait....if he signs, he signs, and the progress of the kids gets slowed up a year...

But, in the end, he is trying to put a system in place very similar to what the Braves have done for the last 20 years...in a hybrid fashion of trades, free agents and development...

Those are my thoughts...I would look forward to hearing yours...and look forward to posting with many of you...
   17. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 29, 2005 at 08:01 PM (#1798875)
Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  
Garland       4.20  14  12  33  33   208.0  206  97  26   60  116 
   18. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 29, 2005 at 08:02 PM (#1798880)
Sorry - the above is Dan's projection for 2006.
   19. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: December 29, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1799327)
Welcome Don.

For the record Shoeless Don and I go waaaaaaaaay back (hopefully that won't be held against him) despite his White Sox fandom ;-).

He has a weakness for Maker's Mark, and Joe Crede...

...and Mike Crudale (you'll learn O Shoeless one.)

You'll like him. Expect him to be a regular in political debates.

Best Regards

John
   20. Shoeless Don Posted: December 30, 2005 at 02:11 PM (#1799810)
A-Rod--

Mike Caruso....boy, that hurts...never matched his rookie year....

Thanks for reminding me...did I tell you the ChiSox won the Series this year...ha-ha...
   21. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: December 30, 2005 at 03:40 PM (#1799858)
Am I going to have to listen to this for the next 88 years? ;-)

Of course Bicentennial Metsie will probably still be alive then.

Heard anything on Thomas? I can't see him going through the offseason unsigned.

You still got that I Love Steve Bartman t-shirt?

Best Regards

John
   22. Shoeless Don Posted: December 30, 2005 at 05:34 PM (#1799988)
A-Rod/John--

Hey, I heard about them losing for 51 years, so get used to it...aiming for at least a two-peat...ha-ha...

Thomas is apparently in negotiations with 3 or 4 teams from what I have heard...Minnesota, LAA, Seattle and Baltimore are the teams I have heard....but, you never know about rumors...agents spread as much of that for negotaition as the clubs due to test market perception...

Money and length of contract I see as being a problem...no one knows if he can stay healthy, or how long he can produce...the problem is his left ankle...and the way Frank hits with the tight-end-attack to the Charlie Lau style, he blasts a lot of weight on that left ankle with every swing...

His attitude improved a bit last year, and certainly has this year...though he is very bitter he doesn't have a job...especially in Chicago...

For Toronto, I see him as being a decent risk if the money and terms are right...he very much wants to be in the HOF, has the self realization that he is borderline, and feels he needs 500 taters to lock it up...so he may try to put 2-3 more years into it...

If healthy, he can do it...needs 52....and can still draw some walks...

Since the Blue Jays are apparently the "hot stove flavor of the moment," I am surprised you haven't taken a run at him....he can still draw some walks and produce some pop....just don't know for how long...

Sammy the Fraud is available, too...ha-ha...

Shoeless
   23. Shoeless Don Posted: December 30, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1800015)
Also...Heard an unfounded rumor....

Tejada and Fahey going to the ChiSox for Contreras, Crede and a blue chipper or two (probably an outfielder and/or a pitcher)....with Mora moving over to SS for the O's....

Rumor could make some sense...obviously the ChiSox have starters, and Crede is arbitration eligible...plus apparently upset that his buddy Rowand was traded...and, Crede's agent Scott Boras has a relationship with the ChiSox similar to that of Dorothy and the Wicked Witch...

ChiSox would use Fahey as a reserve, with either Uribe or Tejada moving to third...could prove interesting...kind of a Jeter/A-Rod 2....

The rumored deal of Garland and Uribe for Tejada apparently got wiped out because the ChiSox demanded Beddard (sp?)...this rumor may be more palletable for both...

Shoeless
   24. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 30, 2005 at 06:11 PM (#1800034)
Tejada and Fahey going to the ChiSox for Contreras, Crede and a blue chipper or two (probably an outfielder and/or a pitcher)....with Mora moving over to SS for the O's....

The blue chipper would have to be McCarthy for that to work - I don't think that the O's want Contreras, who's expensive and looking to get even more expensive, as the centerpiece of that trade.
   25. Shoeless Don Posted: December 30, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1800402)
Well, McCarthy would be ridiculous and defeat the purpose of the trade, so it would have to be someone else for the ChiSox to accept...I would guess Sweeney as an outfielder and/or Broadway as a pitcher, both top ChiSox prospects....but, again, just unfounded speculation so far....
   26. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: December 31, 2005 at 08:45 PM (#1801306)
Since the Blue Jays are apparently the "hot stove flavor of the moment," I am surprised you haven't taken a run at him....he can still draw some walks and produce some pop....just don't know for how long...

Sammy the Fraud is available, too...ha-ha...


Naw, I wouldn't wish to deprive him of his new sushi and sake habit.

Speaking of which.... check this out (it's a bit of BTF lore--wickedly funny).

No....I didn't do it. I said it was wickedly funny.

Best Regards

John
   27. Shoeless Don Posted: January 01, 2006 at 12:18 AM (#1801446)
Not me either....but I love it...

Shoeless
   28. Morph Posted: January 01, 2006 at 07:23 AM (#1801650)
26. Comedic Genius, and when I first read it I was like wow, that is retarded, but I still thought Mariotti wrote it.
   29. MM1f Posted: January 01, 2006 at 09:29 AM (#1801674)
Are we talking about the same Fahey? Brandon Fahey? From Tejas?

Hes the definition of an organizational player nonprospect
   30. Shoeless Don Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:09 PM (#1802794)
MW--Yeah, I thought Mariotti might have actually written it too....

Mordecai--there is only one Fahey on the O's 40-man, so I presume that is him...know nothing about him except he hits left and is a middle infielder...

Shoeless
   31. Shoeless Don Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#1802795)
MW--Yeah, I thought Mariotti might have actually written it too....

Mordecai--there is only one Fahey on the O's 40-man, so I presume that is him...know nothing about him except he hits left and is a middle infielder...

Shoeless
   32. Shoeless Don Posted: January 02, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#1802797)
Not sure why this doubled....sorry...have to blame it on computer gnomes....

Shoeless
   33. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: January 03, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#1804266)
Not sure why this doubled....sorry...have to blame it on computer gnomes....


It's kind of a Primer tradition. I think it was invented by Shredder.

Best Regards

John

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
rr
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4178 seconds
47 querie(s) executed