That estimate for his walks is pretty optimistic. Otherwise, I agree with the analysis and the projection (though I'm hoping (not expecting) that the Cell inflates his totals slightly beyond this).
Since I've posted a zillion other Iguchi notes on this site, I'll just add that, prior to '04, Daiei played as a mild pitcher's park (I think the PF was 96 or 97).

I'm not a CWS fan by anymeans, but I like what Ken Williams has done here. He moved Lee and got Pod, Pryzinski, Vizcaino, El Duque and Iguchi along with a prospect (Hinton) for that price. I don't have the numbers, but I imgaine the projected VORP for the 5 above is higher than that of Borchard, Davis, Harris, Schoeneweis and Cotts.

Should have said Lee instead of Borchard.

Hey Dan - did you ever do a TO for the Pierzynski signing?

The White Sox saved a little more than $6 million in the Lee trade, after accounting for both Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino. That pays for Iguchi and Orlando Hernandez. Let's not weigh the addition of Iguchi alone against the subtraction of Lee. (And they still had the budget to sign A.J. Pierzynski to upgrade another black hole at catcher.)

I'm hoping that Carl Everett will be in good enough shape and will hit well enough while filling in for Frank Thomas that Podsednik gets benched in favor of Everett when Thomas returns. Wishful thinking, probably, but I think I'm allowed at this time of year.

Also, Willie Harris had a .343 OBP last year, compared to the league average of .333. Harris is no on-base machine, but he wasn't Neifirrific last year either.

PECOTA numbers so far:

Lee - 25.7
Davis - 3.7
Harris - 9.1
Schoeneweis - 10.0
Cotts - 9.5
TOTAL - 58.0

Pod - 17.7
Pierzynski - 16.3
Iguchi - 25.9 (Use K. Matsui - similar #'s)
El Duque - 24.2
Vizcaino - 10.0
TOTAL - 94.1

That's an improvement of 36.1 with the same funds...not to mention it makes the bench better (Harris, Davis now on the bench with Cotts & Grilli in the minors.

Also, Willie Harris had a .343 OBP last year, compared to the league average of .333.

Right. Harris' OPS looks awful because he has no power, but in my opinion, (a) power isn't nearly as important as getting on base for a player like Willie Harris, and (b) he started hitting more confidently as the season progressed.

I don't think he'll ever be an All-Star, or even better than average, but I think he has value if used correctly. I'd much rather the team dump Timo Perez than Willie Harris.

That said, I'm glad he's not going to be playing every day.

This team has a lot of question marks, but at least they're the fun kinds.

Nice analysis Vince and Fredud. I wonder if Dan's introduction to this signing would have been different (accurate maybe?) if the above described cumulative transactions had been made by Billy Beane? Just wondering.

Actually imagine the hue and cry if KW had executed the series of transactions that Beane has.

I think Beane's the best GM in the game, but jeez at least recognize another GM's good offseason.

I wonder if Dan's introduction to this signing would have been different (accurate maybe?) if the above described cumulative transactions had been made by Billy Beane? Just wondering.

I think that Dan forgot the El Duque and Pierzynski signings, which taken together with Iguchi more than offset the loss of Lee, IMHO.

In any case, now that I've had some time to think about it, Podsednik is a reasonable risk. If he folds as expected, either Gload or Everett can take over for him in the short term, with Sweeney or Anderson waiting in the long run. If he reverts to 2003 Podsednik (admittedly a long shot), then they've made a hell of a deal. It's not like they have a ton of cash invested in Podsednik.

Clearly, moving Lee was a salary dump, but it was a considered one. I was initially afraid that they traded Lee's salary to put more money in Jerry Reinsdorf's pocket, but that's not what happened.

The White Sox have a lot of outfielders in their organization, so losing Lee wasn't the end of the world for them, and they used the cash they freed up pretty wisely, it seems to me.

I wonder if Dan's introduction to this signing would have been different (accurate maybe?) if the above described cumulative transactions had been made by Billy Beane?

Dan said that Iguchi was a good pickup. He dropped a bit of backhanded smack on Willy choosing Pod over Lee, but I think the point is that the reasons that Williams chose Iguchi may not have been the right ones, so it makes future good decisions less likely to be replicated.

So, let's see ...

Podsednik LF
Iguchi 2B
Rowand CF
Konerko 1B
Pierzynski C
Dye RF
Everett DH
Crede 3B
Uribe SS

Not too bad. There's a lot of ways this could go, and obviously Thomas' return changes it too.

I don't like the Lee deal, but most of the other moves seem positive to me.

I think the point is that the reasons that Williams chose Iguchi may not have been the right ones, so it makes future good decisions less likely to be replicated.

I don't understand what you're getting at here. What reasons did Williams choose Iguchi for, and why are they not the right ones?

Russ,
Read posts 5 and 7. Because they covered Dan's missing analysis so well I didn't rehash it.

The bottom line being that KW traded Lee for Pod, Iguchi (or pierszynski), El Duque and Vizcaino. I agree that taken in isolation Pod and Viz for Lee is a bad deal.

When looking who Kenny picked up from the Lee trade you can't include all the players listed above. Lee was due to make 8 million and Vizcaino is at 1.3 and Pods is at 550K. The Sox brought in El Duque for 3.5. This leaves 2.6 million from left over and it isn't enough to cover Iguchi and AJ. You would need to pick one to evaluate the trade since one could have been signed without giving up Lee. This is still an improvement but not as great as some have said.

The bottom line being that KW traded Lee for Pod, Iguchi (or pierszynski), El Duque and Vizcaino. I agree that taken in isolation Pod and Viz for Lee is a bad deal.

So, don't argue them as though they are one bulk move. Or, one could argue it like this: KW traded Jeremy Reed, Olivo, Morse, half a season of Loaiza, and a year of Lee, for half a season of Garcia (and ability to quickly negotiate an overpayment), Contreras, Podsednik, Dye, Everett and Vizciano. He added salary, downgraded the already weak farm system, and downgraded the outfield . The rotation is not greatly improved, especially considering the money spent.

BTW, how much is Contreras owed over the next 3(?) years?

Or, how about this:

KW traded Lee(8) for Podsednik(.5), Vizcaino(1.3), Dye(4), and Hermanson(2.5). Looks like a pretty bad deal, doesn't it?

Actually, in the analysis I posted above I included Schoenweis, who made $1.725m. On top of that, you also remove Cotts, Grilli and back-up C from the 25-man effectively saving $750k ( (300-50)*3 = 750). You end up with $5m left to cover Iguchi and AJ. They total up to $4.75m....so you can see that the money is even. Between letting Schoenweis go and the Carlos trade, Kenny Williams paid for all of the other moves. The result is spending the same amount of money and ending up with extra production equivalent to adding Derek Lee or Marcus Giles for free.

For all of the faults Williams has had in the last few seasons, this is probably one of the best winters of the 30 teams out there to evaluate.

How old is Iguchi?

FreudUD is right on. The salaries of Lee and Schoeneweiss represented an opportunity cost. Talent-wise, the deal with the Brewers was a loser, but I don't think the Sox improve by as much if they don't make it.

Iguchi's entering his age 31 season (he turns 31 April 12).

He's 30, I believe.

Turned 30 on Dec. 4.

BTW, how much is Contreras owed over the next 3(?) years?

It is two years. IIRC, he will be paid $6M/yr by the White Sox, with Yankee cash covering the rest.

Turned 30 on Dec. 4.

Is his birthday Dec. 4 or Apr. 12? The transliteration of USA-vs-ROTW dating styles has me confused.

12/4. A lot of places have it reversed.

I meant Dec 4. Sorry. :)

So he's 30 then.

I think Cotts will still be on this team in the pen. With picking up El Duque he won't be the fifth starter, so thats good but will be there. But he will still be in the pen. I think no one is going to argue that dropping Show for Iguchi is a bad move. As for Burk, who knows if Ozzie love affair with the thrid catcher is over.

I find it hard to evaultate a winter by itself since moves he made before affect this winter. If the Sox didn't trade for Garcia last year, they would still have Reed(24.6) and Olvio(15.4). For over seven million the Sox got AJ (17.7) and Dye (11.2) so for about 6.5 million the Sox aquired a slightly better catcher and worse outfielder. The Garica move forced the Sox to trade Lee since they needed the cash to fill holes at C, OF, SP and 2B. Without the Garcia trade the Sox could use that 6.5 to fill those holes with El Duque and Iguchi. I am assuming the Sox would have signed Perez or Clement with the money paid to Garica this year.

The White Sox saved a little more than $6 million in the Lee trade, after accounting for both Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino.

And the $6 M saved in the Lee trade was basically given to Dye (2/$10). And don't forget they'll owe Podsednik $1.9 M next year. And let's not mention picking up Everett.

If Contrera and Hernandez are healthy and effective, the Sox are much improved for this year. If they're not, they're a little improved for this year. But this still was mainly a swap of Dye for Lee, and these moves they've made will be more expensive next year.

So dumping Schoenweis was a good move. Dumping Ordonez was something they had no choice but to do -- and that's the contract that's paying for all this added talent (looks like a good investment). But the combination of the Lee trade and the Dye signing isn't a clear-cut plus for the Sox.

This is what makes Williams hard to judge. He got little in return for Lee and nothing he particularly needed. That was a bad move. He's gotten pretty good value for his "savings" from Lee, which helps make up for that bad move. But his "savings" from Lee could have been (mostly) accomplished by not signing Dye or never trading for Everett and it's really the Ordonez money that's available to add this talent.

And I've never gotten the exuberance over his signing of Hernandez. At least 39 years old, 325 IP over the last 4 seasons -- that 2/$8 contract only looks good in comparison to Paul Wilson's contract.

I like this signing a lot.

I still can't believe Pierzynski signed with CWS. Is that the most unlikely free agent signing ever?

Gleeman predicted .300/.345/.425 on his site.

My projection, which takes into consideration his sub-par age 26 and 27 seasons, is:

.272/.333/.396

AB-603
R-79
H-164
2B-28
3B-1
HR-15
RBI-71
BB-56

I am assuming the Sox would have signed Perez or Clement with the money paid to Garica this year.

That's a pretty big assumption. Garcia, Perez and Clement all have very similar contracts. To assume that Clement or Perez would be willing to pitch for the White Sox for the same money that they'd be willing to play for the Dodgers or Red Sox is a pretty big leap.

Lee - 25.7
Davis - 3.7
Harris - 9.1
Schoeneweis - 10.0
Cotts - 9.5
TOTAL - 58.0

Pod - 17.7
Pierzynski - 16.3
Iguchi - 25.9 (Use K. Matsui - similar #'s)
El Duque - 24.2
Vizcaino - 10.0
TOTAL - 94.1

Only problem with that...you left out Ordonez. What's the Pecota of him vs. Dye?

They don't match up salary-wise, so that's why I left him out. Clearly Williams has saved some salary. It may be a tactic to allow him to take on salary later in the year. Incidently Dye(11.2) is certainly at a disadvantage to Ordonez (30.5). However, when you consider that Ordonez is a big health question along with the money saved to allow Williams to go get someone else...I'm still okay with it. Even in adding them to the equation above, Williams is up 10 or so on the VORP swapout while saving $10 million...not bad.

This is what makes Williams hard to judge. He got little in return for Lee and nothing he particularly needed. That was a bad move. He's gotten pretty good value for his "savings" from Lee, which helps make up for that bad move.

But I don't think the Lee trade was 100% about talent... I think the White Sox may have dumped Lee at least partly for other reasons. Ozzie runs his mouth once in a while, but he talked about a DP breakup Lee supposedly didn't make at the Soxfest thing earlier this month. I checked the video archive at MLB and indeed Lee did chicken out on a chance to break up a DP...

In any case, the organization believes in Brian Anderson, and I suspect he'll take Podsednik's job within a year, at which time Podsednik can be flipped for somebody else.

I'm just surprised that Iguchi's projections are that good.

Little Matsui was definitly the better hitter in NPB, yet Iguchi will outperform here in the MLB?

I highly doubt that.

Kaz had significantly better projections prior to his arrival - is it possible he just had a bad year?

Terms (Rotoworld): 2.3 in '05, 2.4 in '06, option for 3.25 in '07 w/ a 0.25 buyout.

It's official.

Nomo signed a minor league deal with the Devil Rays... Dan, maybe you can find a picture of Powdered Toast Man for him.