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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Yankees - Reportedly Signed Mussina

New York Yankees - Reportedly signed P Mike Mussina to a 2-year, $25 million contract.

Pricey, but again, I think this offseason’s going to be nutty, so I have no idea if this is going to look high in 3 months.  I have a Mussina mancrush and can’t imagine saying anything negative about him even if they signed him for $50 million a year.  My dream for 2008?  Mussina goes 23-4 for the Yankees, wins the Cy, gets that 20-win season that dumbass Hall voters want, and the Yankees go 0-135 in the remaining games.

Nowadays, Mussina is a very good pitcher who’s a little more sensitive than average to outfield defense and has a nagging injury of some type every year.  When the nagging injury happens to be arm-related, he has a weak year, when the nagging injury is less crucial, he can still pop out a good year.  Notice that 2006 wasn’t a fluky ERA over peripherals, his HR and BB rates were down and his K rates, declining in recent years with his various injury woes, shot back up. 

[It’s actually a $22.5 million deal -DS]

2007 ZiPS Projection - Mike Mussina
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
Projection 13   8 30 30 184 189   80 21 43 148 3.91
2008     12   9 30 30 183 191   80 24 45 141 4.08
Opt. (15%) 17   6 33 33 208 196   72 17 41 172 3.12  
Pess.(15%) 10   8 25 25 150 164   78 22 40 118 4.68


Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:07 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. G A Delgado Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2238858)
I also love Mussina.

That is all.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2238873)
I have a question, unrelated to Mussina.

How can I look at old transaction oracles, from 2003 and 2004. The archive only gives 1 random transaction per team from that era which is linked to from every link.

Are those threads gone?

   3. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#2238912)
Mike Mussina's projection looks an awful lot like Matsuzaka's.
   4. Juan V Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2238923)
Is there a Matsuzaka projection somewhere?
   5. bibigon Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#2238936)
Is there a Matsuzaka projection somewhere?

Dan posted it in the Matsuzaka Newsblog thread.

His translated seasons:
"2006: 15-7, 3.03, 178 IP, 164 H, 19 HR, 35 BB, 137 K
2005: 17-10, 3.25, 208 IP, 192 H, 20 HR, 51 BB, 154 K
2004: 10-6, 3.55, 142 IP, 138 H, 11 HR, 44 BB, 86 K"

and his projection:

Running a ZiPS projection for 2007, I get 15-8, 3.58 in Boston.

Going by comps, I get a whole weird set of comps for Matsuzaka's translations.

Alex Fernandez
Roy Oswalt (I swear, I didn't know this when I mentioned Oswalt)
Tim Hudson
Juan Marichal
Mike Mussina
Tom Seaver
Jim Palmer"
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:59 PM (#2238948)
Nate, those threads are...somewhere...

The problem was that in those days, I was making the subjects the team names and I think that the system got confused when we went over to EE.

I usually just mess around with*/ when I'm looking for something. Just pick a date around when the transaction was and look in the oracle. Kind of unwieldy, but fixing it up is on the to-do list.

   7. . . . . . . Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#2238951)
Dan, that number is wrong. It's 22.5 million, not 25 million.
   8. Loren F. Posted: November 15, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#2239012)
A good, but not great, deal. A little overpriced, given that Mussina is likely to break down in the second half of either 2007 or 2008, or both. But those ZiPS projections look fairly realistic, and I'd be happy with that.

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