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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Yankees - Signed Sabathia

New York Yankees - Signed P C.C. Sabathia to a 7-year contract.

Based on how this contract is being reported, this is essentially a 3-year, $69 million contract with a 4-year, $92 million player option that has to be picked up in whole or rejected after 2011.

One has to think that the Yankees blinked here somewhat and gave Sabathia a lot of power here and an extra year in return for just getting the damn thing over with.

Still, it’s a good contract and most teams should have been seriously considering signing Sabathia.  He probably could’ve been gotten for a little less than $23 million per and frankly, $23 million doesn’t exactly buy as much starting pitching as one would think.

Any two of Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista make more than $20 million next year and the Mariners weren’t bidding against themselves.  The Dodgers are paying $15 million a year on average for a pitcher they knew had a messed up rotator cuff at the time.  These aren’t isolated examples.

Pitchers like Sabathia just don’t come on the market every day, simply because pitchers of that level are so good that teams will either make sure they don’t hit the market or trade them to someone else who will.  No, Sabathia’s conditioning is more like mine than that of an athlete, but there have been a lot of fat quality pitchers that lasted forever, so as long as his legs are sound, I don’t see any reason he necessarily will go the route of El Sid.

ZiPS Projection - C.C. Sabathia————————————————————————————————-
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+————————————————————————————————-
2009       17   7  31  31  222  214   82  21  47 204  3.32   135  ————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Andy Pettitte, Warren Spahn

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

ERA     %
Top 1/3 84
Mid 1/3 12
Bot 1/3 4

ERA+    %       BB      %
>150    37      <37     30
>140    47      <49     57
>130    59      <62     79
>120    71      <74     91
>110    82      <86     96
>100    91      <99     100
>90     96
>80     98      HR      %
>70     100     <17     30
                <25     74
K       %       <32     92
>222    23      <39     94
>197    47
>173    68
>148    85

(Based on Projected IP)
Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2008 at 06:54 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:21 PM (#3025067)
Based on how this contract is being reported, this is essentially a 3-year, $69 million contract with a 4-year, $92 million player option that has to be picked up in whole or rejected after 2011.


Provided CC performs well the next three years, gotta love the upcoming out-clause drama.
   2. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#3025078)
man, if the Yanks resign him to 6-140m after 3 years, i'd love it.
   3. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:48 PM (#3025122)
D-d-d-it, look what you get!
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:52 PM (#3025129)
I'm really disappointed he didn't sign with an NL team. I really like seeing him hit.
   5. standuptriple Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#3025138)
Maybe he can DH for Melky the days he's on the bump?
   6. DCA Posted: December 10, 2008 at 08:00 PM (#3025148)
Who knew that >173 strikeouts was an important baseball event?
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#3025152)
Who knew that >173 strikeouts was an important baseball event?

It's 7 K/9.
   8. Gamingboy Posted: December 10, 2008 at 08:10 PM (#3025162)
Darn you Erotic Life and Standuptriple!


Although with the Steinbrenner Jr. in charge, he might demand it. And Girardi, if I remember, often would pinch-hit in Dontrelle Willis.
   9. Randy Jones Posted: December 10, 2008 at 08:16 PM (#3025173)
<i>Although with the Steinbrenner Jr. in charge, he might demand it. And Girardi, if I remember, often would pinch-hit in Dontrelle Willis./i>

After what happened with Wang last year? CC isn't going anywhere near a batter's box if there is any way to avoid it.
   10. The Essex Snead Posted: December 10, 2008 at 08:26 PM (#3025193)
After what happened with Wang last year? CC isn't going anywhere near a batter's box if there is any way to avoid it.

If it inspires Hank to take a Superfly Snuka leap from the owner's box to ankle-tackle CC before he takes his hacks, I am behind CC pinch-hitting as much as the rules will allow.
   11. standuptriple Posted: December 10, 2008 at 09:05 PM (#3025259)
9 & 10,

I would prefer that they go the other route and focus on the fundamentals of running the bases, unless Stein figured out a way to get a pass on Interleague.
   12. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 11, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#3025578)
Dan, are you just doing the big deals first and will eventually get to the Ramon Hernandez trade?
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2008 at 01:12 AM (#3025581)
Yeah, I try to get the huge ones up quickly since I know they'll be analyzed to death quickly if I don't get to them. Hernandez and Laird are coming.
   14. Obama Bomaye Posted: December 11, 2008 at 01:21 AM (#3025590)
Don't you usually show a projection for the life of the contract? (Even though it's probably meaningless, since it just shows slowly declining IP totals, whereas he'll more likely pitch 7 mostly-full seasons, or miss a year or two completely.)
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2008 at 01:37 AM (#3025604)
Don't you usually show a projection for the life of the contract? (Even though it's probably meaningless, since it just shows slowly declining IP totals, whereas he'll more likely pitch 7 mostly-full seasons, or miss a year or two completely.)

I hate doing it for pitchers. I do it once in a while for guys at the start or the end of their career, simply because it might be interesting.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2008 at 03:17 AM (#3025657)
Who knew that >173 strikeouts was an important baseball event?

I'm partly to blame. It's an "important" rate pegged to the number of IP ZiPS "projects but doesn't project" him to pitch.

I brought it up with the Hafner projection I think it was -- he was given 0% chance of hitting 30 HR which seemed kinda silly. That's because it was based on only 350 AB or something like that. 350 AB for Hafner is a perfectly reasonable guess but if he does get more playing time, he's got a decent shot at 30 HR you'd think. So as Dan says, that's 7 K/9.

So of course it's now time for me to suggest to Dan that for rates we often deal with as rates (like K/9), maybe it's better to present it as his p of 6 K/9, 7 K/9, etc. For things like HR, where normal people (that's me!) don't think in terms of rates, this sort of conversion to a counting stat helps.

Or project everybody to "full-time" for these purposes?

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