Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Yanks - Signed Marte

New York Yankees - Signed P Damaso Marte to a 3-year contract.

The guaranteed portion is $12 million, consisting of $3.75 million in 2009, $4 million in 2010 and 2011, with a $250,000 buyout for 2012 or the $4 million option.  All told this is a pretty reasonable price, especially for the Yankees who can overpay a little as they should be rolling in even more cash than ever soon, even with a down economy.  Marte’s ERA had a bit of an uptick, but his peripheral numbers were the same and he should be fine as long as he’s healthy, the standard caveat for any person who makes his living throwing a baseball.  Barring a transaction we don’t know about yet, Marte will be the top bullpen lefty for the Yankees.  This might help Phil Coke as well, as the Yankees might be less worried about him with Marte available.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Damaso Marte
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     4   2 71   0   58   47   21   4 26 64 3.26   138
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Dennis Cook, Tippy Martinez

ERA   %
66th   47
50th   76
33rd   86

ERA+  %    BB/9   %
>150   34

<1.5 0
>

140   41

<2.0 3
>

130   53

<2.5 8
>

120   65

<3.0 20
>

110   76

<3.5 29
>

100   86

<4.0 50
>

90   93
>80   97     HR/9   %
>70   100   <0.5 25
<1.0 70
K/9 % <1.5 96
>9     72     <2.0 99
>8     85
>7     96
>6     99

Note: the ERA probability is compared to starter or reliever ERA percentiles, not pitchers as a whole.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 13, 2008 at 03:49 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 13, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#3008155)
Well, if his attributes in MVP 2004 are accurate, this could work out fairly well for the Yankees.
   2. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 13, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#3008165)
Damn, Marte looks pretty awesome here. Good deal for the Yankes.
   3. xanthan Posted: November 13, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#3008174)
I think this is a pretty good deal for the Yankees. Paying Marte $12M over 3 years isn't bad at all and these projections look favorable.

Also, mark me down as a fan of the new probability format.
   4. dugaton Posted: November 13, 2008 at 06:32 PM (#3008251)
I love the new figures and layout.

One Q though: I read them right, does Marte really have a 100% (or a 99.5% or whatever with rounding) chance of putting up an ERA+ over 70+ ? I mean, it's pretty likely, but is there really no chance of him going all Jose Mesa 2003? It's only a drop of 36 points, which is only half the drop between 2007 and 2008, or a quarter of the drop between 2003 and 2004. Now, I accept that Marte's TT is higher than a 100+ ERA, but still... out of 100 Marte's, or a 1000 Marte's, how many would we expect to put up an ERA in the high 5s in the AL East? What's that, three or four more bad outings a year?
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 13, 2008 at 08:57 PM (#3008421)
One Q though: I read them right, does Marte really have a 100% (or a 99.5% or whatever with rounding) chance of putting up an ERA+ over 70+

Injury, of course, is always the bugaboo.

It's actually pretty rare. By all indications, Marte's "true" ability level is quite good, but to be conservative, let's say his true ability level is closer to a 3.60 ERA.
A 70 ERA+ would essentially be about a 70% jump in his ERA.

Most drastic increases in ERA, for players that actually pitch, comes from pitchers that were already pitching far above their talent level. So, I looked through baseball history (from 1871-1872 to 2005-2006). I found each pitcher that:

- Pitched 20 innings in two consecutive seasons
- 70% jump or more in ERA from year 1 to year 2
- ERA in year 1 is no better than half a run better than their career ERA.

Number of times it's happened? About 2 and a half times a year on average. And a lot of those guys weren't healthy - just looking at the 21 players that did it from 2001-2002 to 2005-2006, 13 of the players were on the DL in season 2 and 5 had Tommy John surgery.
   6. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 13, 2008 at 09:21 PM (#3008453)
Thumbs up for the new format. Amazing work, Dan, as always.
   7. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 14, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#3008738)
i like this format.

why the hell weren't the mets in on this? come on omar, wake up!
   8. dugaton Posted: November 14, 2008 at 09:33 AM (#3008926)
Number of times it's happened? About 2 and a half times a year on average. And a lot of those guys weren't healthy - just looking at the 21 players that did it from 2001-2002 to 2005-2006, 13 of the players were on the DL in season 2 and 5 had Tommy John surgery.


Wow - great stuff. Didn't realise it was that rare - obviously, injuries and 0.2 inning seasons excepted. Great stuff - I love hearing the working behind the numbers. Thanks.
   9. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: November 14, 2008 at 06:43 PM (#3009295)
Are both the ERA and ERA+ numbers separated for starters and relievers or just the ERA percentiles?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 14, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#3009297)
why the hell weren't the mets in on this? come on omar, wake up!

The Yankees had an option.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.1371 seconds
47 querie(s) executed