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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Yanks - Signed Marte
New York Yankees - Signed P Damaso Marte to a 3-year contract.
The guaranteed portion is $12 million, consisting of $3.75 million in 2009, $4 million in 2010 and 2011, with a $250,000 buyout for 2012 or the $4 million option. All told this is a pretty reasonable price, especially for the Yankees who can overpay a little as they should be rolling in even more cash than ever soon, even with a down economy. Marte’s ERA had a bit of an uptick, but his peripheral numbers were the same and he should be fine as long as he’s healthy, the standard caveat for any person who makes his living throwing a baseball. Barring a transaction we don’t know about yet, Marte will be the top bullpen lefty for the Yankees. This might help Phil Coke as well, as the Yankees might be less worried about him with Marte available.
2009 ZiPS Projection - Damaso Marte ————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ ————————————————————————————————-
2009 4 2 71 0 58 47 21 4 26 64 3.26 138 ————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Dennis Cook, Tippy Martinez
ERA %
66th 47
50th 76
33rd 86
ERA+ % BB/9 %
>150 34 <1.5 0
> 140 41 <2.0 3
> 130 53 <2.5 8
> 120 65 <3.0 20
> 110 76 <3.5 29
> 100 86 <4.0 50
> 90 93
>80 97 HR/9 %
>70 100 <0.5 25
<1.0 70
K/9 % <1.5 96
>9 72 <2.0 99
>8 85
>7 96
>6 99
Note: the ERA probability is compared to starter or reliever ERA percentiles, not pitchers as a whole.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 13, 2008 at 03:49 PM | 10 comment(s)
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1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 13, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#3008155)Also, mark me down as a fan of the new probability format.
One Q though: I read them right, does Marte really have a 100% (or a 99.5% or whatever with rounding) chance of putting up an ERA+ over 70+ ? I mean, it's pretty likely, but is there really no chance of him going all Jose Mesa 2003? It's only a drop of 36 points, which is only half the drop between 2007 and 2008, or a quarter of the drop between 2003 and 2004. Now, I accept that Marte's TT is higher than a 100+ ERA, but still... out of 100 Marte's, or a 1000 Marte's, how many would we expect to put up an ERA in the high 5s in the AL East? What's that, three or four more bad outings a year?
Injury, of course, is always the bugaboo.
It's actually pretty rare. By all indications, Marte's "true" ability level is quite good, but to be conservative, let's say his true ability level is closer to a 3.60 ERA.
A 70 ERA+ would essentially be about a 70% jump in his ERA.
Most drastic increases in ERA, for players that actually pitch, comes from pitchers that were already pitching far above their talent level. So, I looked through baseball history (from 1871-1872 to 2005-2006). I found each pitcher that:
- Pitched 20 innings in two consecutive seasons
- 70% jump or more in ERA from year 1 to year 2
- ERA in year 1 is no better than half a run better than their career ERA.
Number of times it's happened? About 2 and a half times a year on average. And a lot of those guys weren't healthy - just looking at the 21 players that did it from 2001-2002 to 2005-2006, 13 of the players were on the DL in season 2 and 5 had Tommy John surgery.
why the hell weren't the mets in on this? come on omar, wake up!
Wow - great stuff. Didn't realise it was that rare - obviously, injuries and 0.2 inning seasons excepted. Great stuff - I love hearing the working behind the numbers. Thanks.
The Yankees had an option.
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