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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

ZiPS Career Projection - Juan Pierre and Johnny Damon

I get a lot of requests for these.  It should always be noted that projecting what happens to a player down the road is extremely speculative.  I programmed my ZiPSCareer spreadsheet to, for these long-term projections, to further reduce playing time based on average and replacement level in order to get realistic-looking career-ends.

So why not test it to check on the nightmare scenario, Juan Pierre getting 3000 hits and being elected into the Hall?  Admittedly, it’s less worrisome than it was a year ago, but still…

ZiPS Career Projection - Juan Pierre
———————————————————————————————————————
Year   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
———————————————————————————————————————
2000   200   26   62   2   0   0   20   13   15   7 .310 .353 .320   58  
2001   617 108 202 26 11   2   55   41   29 46 .327 .378 .415   89
2002   598   90 170 20   5   1   35   31   52 47 .287 .332 .343   68
2003   668 100 204 28   7   1   41   55   35 65 .305 .361 .373   94
2004   678 100 221 22 12   3   49   45   35 45 .326 .374 .407   107
2005   656   96 181 19 13   2   47   41   45 57 .276 .326 .354   84
2006   699   87 204 32 13   3   40   32   38 58 .292 .330 .388   82
2007   668   96 196 24   8   0   41   33   37 64 .293 .331 .353   75
2008   578   71 161 21   5   0   47   35   35 56 .279 .327 .332   71
2009   590   76 167 23   7   1   53   30   34 49 .282 .324 .348   74
2010   498   64 138 19   5   0   43   26   29 42 .277 .320 .335   69
2011   395   50 105 15   4   0   33   21   23 31 .267 .311 .322   64
2012   278   34   72 10   2   0   22   14   16 21 .260 .305 .312   60
2013   188   24   48   7   2   0   15   10   11 14 .258 .304 .311   59
2014   112   14   28   4   1   0   9   6   7   8 .255 .302 .306   58
2015   76   10   19   3   1   0   6   6   7   5 .255 .303 .316   60          
———————————————————————————————————————
Total 7492 1046 2179 275 95 13 557 435 446 615 .291 .337 .358   80
———————————————————————————————————————

 

ZiPS Career Projection - Johnny Damon
———————————————————————————————————————
Year   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
———————————————————————————————————————
1995   188   32   53 11   5   3   23   12   22   7 .282 .324 .441   97
1996   517   61 140 22   5   6   50   31   64 25 .271 .313 .368   73
1997   472   70 130 12   8   8   48   42   70 16 .275 .338 .386   88
1998   642 104 178 30 10 18   66   58   84 26 .277 .339 .439   100
1999   583 101 179 39   9 14   77   67   50 36 .307 .379 .477   116
2000   655 136 214 42 10 16   88   65   60 46 .327 .382 .495   118
2001   644 108 165 34   4   9   49   61   70 27 .256 .324 .363   82
2002   623 118 178 34 11 14   63   65   70 31 .286 .356 .443   109
2003   608 103 166 32   6 12   67   68   74 30 .273 .345 .405   94
2004   621 123 189 35   6 20   94   76   71 19 .304 .380 .477   117
2005   624 117 197 35   6 10   75   53   69 18 .316 .366 .439   110
2006   593 115 169 35   5 24   80   67   85 25 .285 .359 .482   103
2007   533   93 144 27   2 12   63   66   79 27 .270 .351 .396   97
2008   567   94 175 36   5 13   70   62   77 24 .309 .378 .459   119
2009   509   93 152 29   3 13   83   60   71 21 .299 .375 .444   115
2010   467   83 139 26   2 10   71   55   64 18 .298 .374 .426   110
2011   413   73 121 23   1   9   62   49   54 13 .293 .371 .419   108
2012   369   64 105 20   1   7   52   44   48 10 .286 .365 .402   102
2013   304   50   84 16   1   6   42   34   38   7 .276 .353 .392   96
2014   253   41   69 12   0   4   33   28   31   6 .273 .349 .370   90
2015   145   23   38   6   0   2   17   15   17   3 .264 .340 .345   81
2016   69   11   18   3   0   1   8   7   8   1 .266 .339 .344   81        
———————————————————————————————————————
Total 10398 1812 3004 559 100 231 1281 1086 1275 436 .289 .359 .428   103  
———————————————————————————————————————

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 25, 2008 at 07:15 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DKDC Posted: June 25, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2832364)
If the 2000 hit plateau is good enough for Yogi Berra, Duke Snider, Arky Vaughan, Harmon Killebrew, Gary Carter, Johnny Bench and Johnny Mize, it's good enough for Juan Pierre.
   2. bibigon Posted: June 25, 2008 at 08:57 PM (#2832368)
How about giving Johnny Damon a spin? That's the real nightmare scenario.
   3. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: June 25, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2832381)
These systems regress so much I doubt that anyone would project to get 3000 hits, except for a few who are already almost there, or someone who has 1500 hits by age 26 or something. But I may be wrong... If you were to project from age 30 the guys who actually did get 3000 hits, how many of them projected to make it?
   4. The Good Face Posted: June 25, 2008 at 09:35 PM (#2832383)
How about giving Johnny Damon a spin? That's the real nightmare scenario.


You know, I was going to try to defend Damon, but after looking at his career, that IS a scary scenario. 103 career OPS+ BEFORE his decline phase, and he's not really the type of player who's greatly undervalued by OPS+. He was a decent to good CF for a while, but his crappy arm never allowed him to be great. He's a good base stealer/runner, but not historically special. His OBP was better than average, but again, nothing special.

And assuming he doesn't get injured and maintains roughly the same level of performance over the next 1.5 years, he'll complete his Yankees contract with well over 2400 hits as a 36 years old. He's got a pretty good shot if he can stay healthy and not completely go in the tank. I have no idea what the writers would do it he made it to 3000.
   5. DCA Posted: June 25, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2832385)
Or Renteria ... 2000 hits at 32 and coming off a strong 2007.
   6. JPWF13 Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:02 PM (#2832399)
How about giving Johnny Damon a spin? That's the real nightmare scenario.


At least with Pierre we can reasonably assume that further decline will push him into embarrassingly bad territory (even from a MSM perspective). He's apparently at an OPS+ level of about 75 now, no OF is going to maintain his PT if he drops below that level for more than a year or two.

Damon looks productive when he's OPSing an even 100- and he might be able to do that for quite some time.
   7. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:03 PM (#2832400)
I find it amusing that Pierre's B-Ref sponsor calls him the black David Eckstein. More proof that Eckstein has simultaneously become the most over and underrated player in the MLB.
   8. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:07 PM (#2832405)
So basically Juan Pierre will emerge as hitting like Willie Wilson.. only worse?

Wilson got 2207 hits in 8317 PA with a .285/.326/.376 line and a 94 OPS+

Granted, Wilson won a batting title, and Pierre only has 2 seasons of OPS+ better than Wilson's average.

So, Juan is a replacement-level Willie Wilson?
   9. Dusto Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#2832414)
I've maintained for some time that Juan Pierre is about as useful as Jason Repko or Delwyn Young and have been eaten alive on my Dodger message boards and blogs. It has nothing to do with his salary and everything to do with his worthlessness as a major leaguer. His numbers suggest he is a backup middle infielder and not an everyday starting outfielder. To get the accolades and praise he gets from Torre suggest that Torre should be fired. And he likely should. But no one will because of his track record. Too bad for what could have been a nice dodger team. Colletti and Toore have set the team back at least another year.
   10. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#2832416)
The thing about Damon and...jeeze, pretty much anyone in these discussions except Juan Pierre is that if they have hang around long enough to get 3,000 hits, they'll probably merit it. Let's say Damon finishes his career as a .285 hitter. That would mean he'd need ~10,500 ABs to reach 3,000 hits. That means--depending on how things go the rest of this year--he's going to need to play relatively effectively for another 6 seasons to get his hits, maybe. If Damon can remain an effective player through age 40, he probably will belong in.

It's only a nightmare scenario if you get something like Pierre making it with 2,750
   11. Guapo Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2832419)
How did you project that one home run in 2009? Is it an inside the park job? Does ZiPS project fierce wind conditions for 2009? What projects to happen to the pitcher who gives it up?
   12. Boots Day Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2832420)
Carlos Lee is projected to fall down.
   13. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:45 PM (#2832425)
How did you project that one home run in 2009?

The ball is projected to be wedged under the padding in the Skydome as Alexis Rios refuses to field it.
   14. Santanaland Diaries Posted: June 25, 2008 at 10:52 PM (#2832426)
RB:

Even if Damon makes it to age 40 at his current production level, he won't deserve to be a Hall of Famer. Guys over 10,000 PAs not in the HoF include Rusty Staub, Darrell and Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Vada Pinson, Graig Nettles, Bill Buckner and Buddy Bell (Chili Davis is 4 PA short). Damon is much closer to Bell and Buckner than to the rest of those guys, and none of them will make it in without buying a ticket.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: June 25, 2008 at 11:44 PM (#2832507)
they'd probably be comp'ed
   16. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 26, 2008 at 12:04 AM (#2832567)
I find it amusing that Pierre's B-Ref sponsor calls him the black David Eckstein. More proof that Eckstein has simultaneously become the most over and underrated player in the MLB.

How long does Eckstein have to spend playing in Canada as the backup to Marco Scutaro before the average fan forgets about him completely? I'd almost forgotten about him until he came to town to play the Pirates this weekend.

BTW, I peg Joe Inglett as the new hero of scrappiness, if he ever goes to an All-American franchise like the Cardinals or Giants or Angels. Despite the ridiculous sunglasses he wears in the field.
   17. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: June 26, 2008 at 12:44 AM (#2832673)
The last four years of projections for Damon are painful to read. Even with a milestone in sight, would (could?) someone hang on for four years to get those last couple hundred hits?
   18. RobertMachemer Posted: June 26, 2008 at 01:13 AM (#2832719)
Pete Rose did. Al Oliver might have tried, though it's tough to know how much interest there would have been in him coming off his first career sub-100 OPS+ had collusion (most likely) made it moot.
   19. Nasty Nate Posted: June 26, 2008 at 01:44 AM (#2832770)
The last four years of projections for Damon are painful to read. Even with a milestone in sight, would (could?) someone hang on for four years to get those last couple hundred hits?


if he still has his speed and projects to have a .350 OBP, it wouldnt be that painful. he'd be useful as a backup.

...if its no-range and no-baserunning it does get ugly
   20. PS is probably angering Americans again Posted: June 26, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2833194)
Pete Rose did.

I wonder what manager would allow such a thing...
   21. Kurt Posted: June 26, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2833250)
Not sure if this affects anything - probably not - but bb-ref has Damon's 2006 OPS+ at 115, not 103.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 26, 2008 at 03:41 PM (#2833255)
Kurt, just a writing error - as you surmise, it doesn't change anything.
   23. Loren F. Posted: June 26, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2833319)
I realize ZiPS can't project front-office decisions (and if it did, Pierre's LA contract would have broken it). But Pierre's Dodgers contract expires after the 2011 season and I find it hard to believe anyone in MLB will be employing Juan Pierre, even as a backup, by 2013.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: June 26, 2008 at 06:41 PM (#2833529)
It appears that Damon's hot 3 months to start this season buy him an extra 4 seasons as a good player in the projection. He doesn't fall back to the level of production he established in 2006-2007 until 2012. Had the career projection been done before the season started he would have fallen well short of 3,000.
   25.   Posted: June 26, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#2833539)
What would it take for Jamie Moyer to get to 300 wins?
   26. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: June 26, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2833559)
An Act of God
   27.   Posted: June 26, 2008 at 07:16 PM (#2833624)
Damn. I think the Rockies are the only team he hasn't played for.
   28. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 26, 2008 at 07:24 PM (#2833655)
An Act of God
Yep, doing a Lazarus on Eric Gregg would be a start. That would also help keep Glavine around to get 400.
   29. Darren Posted: June 28, 2008 at 11:32 PM (#2835915)
That's funny--I was just looking at Damon the other day and saying "Wow, this guy is a pretty good bet to get 3,000 hits. He's also over 1,300 runs 300 steals.

If he gets to 3,000 H, 1,800 R, 400 steals, as this projects, he'll be a lock. He sure doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer, but with his defense and offense combination, he won't be a horrible HOFer.
   30. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: June 29, 2008 at 01:43 AM (#2836245)
Is this the 1% projection for Damon, or something like that? Surely Dan's not suggesting 3,004 hits is the median projection?
   31. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 29, 2008 at 02:08 AM (#2836290)
What would it take for Jamie Moyer to get to 300 wins?


Developing a good knuckler
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 29, 2008 at 04:29 AM (#2836388)
Is this the 1% projection for Damon, or something like that? Surely Dan's not suggesting 3,004 hits is the median projection?

He's a good bet to finish his age-34 season with 750 hits to go or so. Damon just needs to stay relatively healthy. Favorite Toy gives him a 54% chance.
   33. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: June 30, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#2837395)
He sure doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer, but with his defense and offense combination, he won't be a horrible HOFer.

He's Lloyd Waner, who is one of the worst choices in the Hall.
   34. RJ in TO Posted: June 30, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#2837482)
He's Lloyd Waner, who is one of the worst choices in the Hall.


He's Lloyd Waner with a higher OPS+, a huge advantage in steals (at a high %), and a 25% longer career by projection. I'm not claiming he's a Hall of Fame calibur player, but he's significantly better than Lloyd Waner.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 30, 2008 at 04:16 PM (#2837498)
Just for fun, I attempted to do a 10% and 90% career final total for Damon. I didn't have a great way to do it, so I just used the 56th percentile every year for the "good" projection and the 44th every year for the "bad" one. So I ended up with Damon having an 80% chance of finishing between 2604 and 3312 career hits (Favorite Toy has the 90% and 10% hit probs for Damon at about 2800 and 3500 respectively).
   36. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 30, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2837499)
He's Lloyd Waner with a higher OPS+, a huge advantage in steals (at a high %), and a 25% longer career by projection. I'm not claiming he's a Hall of Fame calibur player, but he's significantly better than Lloyd Waner.


If Damon's done as a centerfielder, it's a lot closer, though. Little Poison has 400 more games in CF than Damon. Damon's offense really doesn't play well for a corner outfielder. Of course, if Damon's done as a CF, I'd think that the fact that his offense doesn't play well in a corner makes it that much more unlikely that he'll actually make this projection - unless he's somehow managed to hit a new level of offense this season at age 34 that carries forward for the next few years.
   37. _ Posted: July 03, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#2842105)
What might be useful is to go back and project historical careers at certain points and see how accurate they are.

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