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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, January 14, 2008

ZiPS FAQ Updated

ZiPS FAQ

With the Red Sox projections imminent, since that always gets the biggest traffic, I thought I’d update the FAQ a little.  If anybody has any questions, I’ll add them to the FAQ.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2008 at 08:14 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Guapo Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:13 PM (#2668029)
Regarding the new DMB-style defensive ratings that come with the 2008 ZiPS- do the ratings reflect last year's performance, or are they projections for 2008?
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2668042)
I think you answered this before, but does ZIPS take into effect the park of the team you have assigned him to, or is in a league-neutral environment?
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2668044)
Wow, I worded that poorly. I hope you understood what I say words are hard.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2008 at 10:57 PM (#2668187)
I think you answered this before, but does ZIPS take into effect the park of the team you have assigned him to, or is in a league-neutral environment?

Yes.

Sorry. ZiPS uses the park and the league of the team the player's assigned to (any Q added here will be put into the FAQ)

Regarding the new DMB-style defensive ratings that come with the 2008 ZiPS- do the ratings reflect last year's performance, or are they projections for 2008?

Projections for 2008. Those are the range ratings - those who use the DMB disk will also see error rate as a percentage of league average.
   5. steagles Posted: January 15, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2668248)
fielding errors and/or throwing errors? DMB already has a rating for arm, so factoring throwing errors into the error rate calculation is kind of a double whammy.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 12:31 AM (#2668274)
fielding errors and/or throwing errors? DMB already has a rating for arm, so factoring throwing errors into the error rate calculation is kind of a double whammy.

The arm rating is for outfielders only and it is mainly for strength and accuracy of the throw - the error rating is still involved. At least, this used to be the case (and seems to still be based on DMB's assigned error ratings and the table of average error they tell you to use when calculating error rate).
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 12:48 AM (#2668291)
Just verified it. Played the 2006 Braves against 2006 Orioles 200 times with all outfielders changed to AVG range, 0 ERROR rate, but the Braves all having EX arms and the Orioles all having PR arms. Braves had a lot more assists than the Orioles. Neither team had a single outfield error.
   8. Frisco Cali Posted: January 15, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#2668332)
any Q added here will be put into the FAQ

Who does your hair?
Who would ever know?
Do you have hair?

Okay, after that brief comedic? interlude.

In DMB, when I try to throw out every possible runner, it seems that I have a lot of running errors - versus um, not trying to throw out runners. I guess the question would be - does an EX arm have fewer errors when trying to throw out every runner than a PR arm would? Is poor just weak, or inaccurate also? Is EX just strong, or accurate also?

Personally, I would be weak but accurate. I would hit the SS/2B cutoff every time.
   9. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 15, 2008 at 02:38 AM (#2668368)
Dan,

Out of curiosity, when do you plan to have this one particular team's* projections? I would love to see what ZIPS has to say...

* I don't want to give away the team's name (for competitive advantage reasons), but it rhymes with "Schmiamondschmacks"
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:02 AM (#2668381)
Griamondbacks? Lemonbacks? I'm totally confused!

Probably a week.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:04 AM (#2668384)
In DMB, when I try to throw out every possible runner, it seems that I have a lot of running errors - versus um, not trying to throw out runners. I guess the question would be - does an EX arm have fewer errors when trying to throw out every runner than a PR arm would? Is poor just weak, or inaccurate also? Is EX just strong, or accurate also?


That's harder to test systematically. DMB says "strength and accuracy" but it seems that the accuracy is for non-error accuracy issues, like missing the cutoff man or throwing the ball up the line, but also consulting the error rating to see if there was an error on the play.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:05 AM (#2668385)
Who does your hair?
Who would ever know?
Do you have hair?


I now grow a full head of hair for the winter and then shave it off in the spring. The hair doesn't really get long enough during the cold weather to need anyone to cut my hair.
   13. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:49 AM (#2668425)
Griamondbacks? Lemonbacks? I'm totally confused!

Probably a week.


Like I said Dan, due to competitive advantage reasons, I'm unable to disclose what team I'd like ZIPS for. Do you want me to get fired? You stat geeks don't know how it is "out there." (actually, neither do I----yet)

I'll let you know if the team you post in a week is the team that I was looking for.
   14. steagles Posted: January 15, 2008 at 06:24 AM (#2668519)
good to see you're still around, CBW. are you still able to give impressions of a pitcher's mechanics, or has that been bargained away? i plan on going around the midatlantic region this spring to gather some video, and it'd be nice to have a second opinion or a sounding board to talk to once in a while.
   15. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 15, 2008 at 06:46 AM (#2668531)
You stat geeks don't know how it is "out there."

Oh yes. Yes I do...
   16. bteribery Posted: January 15, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#2668560)
Just curious when your DMB disk will be released?
   17. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:33 PM (#2668604)
are you still able to give impressions of a pitcher's mechanics, or has that been bargained away?

I'm now a lurker more than anything, since I can't express those kind of opinions anymore. My apologies....
   18. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#2668614)
Dan, is there a way to quantify how confident a projection is? For example, a young guy is more likely to underperform/overperform his mean projection than a guy in his prime. Same thing, as you once told me, with old pitchers
   19. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: January 15, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2668636)
I'm now a lurker more than anything, since I can't express those kind of opinions anymore. My apologies....


Any chance of doing more of the historical analysis like you did with Aaron, Ruth, etc? If we can't get your feedback on modern players, you've gotta at least give us something!
   20. steagles Posted: January 15, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2668886)

I'm now a lurker more than anything, since I can't express those kind of opinions anymore. My apologies....


don't feel bad about it. you've already paid your dues, and the archive here is probably good enough for me to find comparable players going forward to answer any questions i have.
   21. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: January 16, 2008 at 08:50 PM (#2669879)
I guess my question wasn't a frequently asked one.
   22. flournoy Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:21 PM (#2669894)
Dan, is there a way to quantify how confident a projection is? For example, a young guy is more likely to underperform/overperform his mean projection than a guy in his prime. Same thing, as you once told me, with old pitchers
   23. flournoy Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:22 PM (#2669895)
I guess my question wasn't a frequently asked one.


I've seen it asked multiple times.
   24. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:25 PM (#2669896)
Wiseacre.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:28 PM (#2669898)
Dan, is there a way to quantify how confident a projection is? For example, a young guy is more likely to underperform/overperform his mean projection than a guy in his prime. Same thing, as you once told me, with old pitchers

Sorry, didn't have time to check the thread yesterday.

Yes. I'm still figuring out, however, the best way to express that confidence.
   26. AROM Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#2669905)
I don't know how to do it either, other than just looking at how many PA/BF for each player go into the projection, which is what Tango does.
   27. this space for rent Posted: January 16, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2669919)
Are the "AVERAGE RELIEVER" and "AVERAGE STARTER" lines adjusted for defense as well as park? If not, why not?

Defense seems to be part of the context in which pitchers are being projected, based on comments about how Pitcher X's ERA would shoot up if he went to Florida or Tampa - for comparison purposes, doesn't it seems to make sense to use the exact same context for the "AVERAGE" pitcher as well?
   28. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: January 16, 2008 at 10:06 PM (#2669933)
Yes. I'm still figuring out, however, the best way to express that confidence.


I was thinking of something like an Efficient Frontier with two axis.
   29. shoewizard Posted: January 24, 2008 at 06:07 AM (#2675150)
Griamondbacks? Lemonbacks? I'm totally confused!

Probably a week.


Checks watch.....paces back and forth......checks calendar......paces some more......curses bitterly at the concept of reverse alphabetical order.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2675249)

Checks watch.....paces back and forth......checks calendar......paces some more......curses bitterly at the concept of reverse alphabetical order.


Fell behind - I've been in Ohio because my Mom hurt her back and I've been carting her around.
   31. 1k5v3L Posted: January 24, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2675264)
Am sorry to hear that, Dan. Hopefully your mom's ok.

Maybe you can give me the keys to TO in the meantime? I've been thinking Pedroia's projection needs a bit of adjustment... you know, reduce the babip to .222, give him a couple of stints on the DL, hike up that K rate a notch...
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2008 at 02:52 PM (#2675285)
Can't do that - it'd really tick Kevin off and I get him annoyed with me as much as it is.

I'm still doing projections, just a little slower. I should have a lot of time this weekend to finish Atlanta and Arizona.
   33. shoewizard Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#2675368)
Dan, sorry to hear about your Mom. Obviously you are a good son, so you get a pass on this one. ;)

Seriously, I only express my impatience as a way of letting you know how much I appreciate and look forward to ALL of your work.
   34. Jeff K. Posted: February 17, 2008 at 12:58 AM (#2692771)
Here's a question: Why have you biased ZiPS against my favorite team?
   35. Honkie Kong Posted: February 17, 2008 at 01:01 AM (#2692773)
Here's a question: Why have you biased ZiPS against my favorite team?

It wasn't ZiPS! it was Keith Law. He stole the keys and did that!
   36. spycake Posted: February 27, 2008 at 02:04 AM (#2700736)
Forgive me if this has been asked elsewhere, but I could not find it in the FAQ or through extensive searching:

What runs created formula does the ZiPS spreadsheet use? I tried reverse engineering a few common formulas with the data available, without any luck. Thanks in advance.

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