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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1

This is the updated projection tool to calculate rest-of-season projections based on 2007 ZiPS Projections and the current up-to-date stats of any player.  As is generally the case with spreadsheets I release to the public, green fields are for putting stuff in, yellow fields are values the spreadsheet calculates, and gray fields are the ones you shouldn’t touch unless you want to muck up a formula or something.

The only field that should be confusing is the player name at the top left.  Enter in the player you want to project, a comma, and then no space before the first name.  This should be apparent from the example already entered in, but it’s always good to head off these questions at the pass.

Red Sox’s Nation’s Favoritest Middle Infielder of All Time is an ideal example.  Oh, I’m talking about Julio Lugo.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Julio Lugo
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
Actual 2007*  299 36   59 13 1   5 40 31 43 22 .197 .273 .298
Rest of 2007 254 36   66 15 1   4 25 24 47 14 .260 .329 .374
2007 Total   553 72 125 28 2   9 65 55 90 36 .226 .298 .333
2008       503 71 131 30 2   6 53 49 95 28 .260 .331 .364

* - Includes minor league translation, if applicable.


ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1 (2007)


Pitcher spreadsheet done as well.

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 11, 2007 at 01:12 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 11, 2007 at 04:08 AM (#2437143)
Thanks Dan. I noticed one problem. Jose Reyes is in the list twice (Rows 790 and 791) once with 676 AB and once with 274 AB.
   2. J. Cross Posted: July 11, 2007 at 04:16 AM (#2437157)
for me, everyone's "year-to-date" line is showing up as Lugo's year to date.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 11, 2007 at 04:57 AM (#2437183)
- Cross, that's the line you have to enter (green squares)

- Mark - two Jose Reyes unfortunately and the spreadsheet is confused.
   4. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:05 PM (#2437265)
Any clue when the Memorial Day DMB disk will be finished? Thanks in advance for the work!
   5. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:59 PM (#2437286)
Yes, J. Cross, I'm having the same problem.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 01:24 PM (#2437302)
Thanks, Dan.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2437305)
How do you do pitchers?
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2437307)
Also, some kind of error on Russ(ell) Martin.
   9. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 11, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2437387)
- Mark - two Jose Reyes unfortunately and the spreadsheet is confused.

Oh yeah. I didn't think you did a projection for the other Jose Reyes.
   10. azruavatar Posted: July 11, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2437561)
I don't know whether you make in season corrections but two ever so minor notes on the Cardinals:

- Micah Hoffpauir doesn't play for STL but for CHC. Jarrett Hoffpauir was recently promoted to AAA in the Cardinals system.

- John Nelson was recently traded from STL to CHC.

Also, this is a fantastic tool -- very much appreciated Dan.
   11. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 12, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2438529)
Thanks Dan, I only asked because build 2 was never released, and I thought you were a couple mgr profiles away from having it completed on the Memorial Day update. I can continue to use build 1, so no hurry.
   12. Human Papelbon Virus Posted: July 13, 2007 at 12:28 PM (#2439783)
Found another bug. In the hitter and pitcher projection sheets, players on the dodgers are assigned the team abbreviation 'LAD' - however, on the page that provides team-based weightings, the dodgers are listed as 'LA'. If you don't change the 'LA' to 'LAD' dodgers players' projections won't work.

Dan, what is the easiest way to acquire a spreadsheet that contains YTD stats updated on a daily basis, in the same format as the current spreadsheet (i.e., with the player names formatted in the same way and containing all of the relevant stats)? I'd like to build on the spreadshet to make daily updates for each player without having to type in all of the data by hand every day.

Thanks for this and all of your work on ZiPS!
   13. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 14, 2007 at 11:32 AM (#2440936)

Why not just zip what you have done, and whoever wants it can just update the mgr profiles themselves? By the way, is the schedule fixed in v2?
   14. bbwsmin Posted: July 16, 2007 at 12:45 AM (#2442259)
I am assuming the public version of this tool does not project 2008 like in your examples?

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