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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
ZiPS Percentiles 2010 - A Quick Review
With Colin Wyers taking a look at PECOTA percentiles, I decided to take a quick up-to-date look at how ZiPS percentiles fared in 2010. This doesn’t replace a player-by-player evaluation of the projection system, simply a test to see if upside and downside are being overestimated, underestimated, or right on as a group.
While ZiPS doesn’t use percentiles in the same way, ZiPS can still be evaluated for how well it matched up with probabilities. To do this, I used the most generic, easy-to-use stats, OPS+, and compared how many regulars (300 PA or more) played to a certain level compared to how they did. For pitchers, I used ERA+ and 300 BF.
The first figure, “PRED” is, based on the probabilities given by ZiPS, how many regulars should have beaten the threshold given the “ACT” is how many actually did.
There are obviously more robust ways to do this (OMG TEH HETEROSKEDASTICITY~!), but I’m looking at a simple ballpark here. As I’m not an impartial observer, if you would like to check the data this is derived from, please let me know.
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