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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, February 28, 2009

ZiPS Projections/ZiPS Projection Disk News Update

Just wanted to give an update as to where I am in making the Diamond Mind disk/ZiPS spreadsheet.

SPREADSHEET

Projections for about 2000 players are done and ready to roll.

I am working through a list of 152 requests.

PROJECTION DISK FOR DIAMOND MIND 9

Of the 2000 players above, roughly 1850 are entered into Diamond Mind, with event tables for Yankees and White Sox players still needing to be entered.  Platoon splits for those players with adequate sample size are entered in and there are about 40 pitchers of the 152 requests above that need to be created as well.

Right now, it looks like I should have the first build of both the spreadsheet and the disk posted in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.  My initial hope was to have it up Sunday evening/Monday morning, but I got a little surprised by the number of new projection requests I’ve received.

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 28, 2009 at 06:27 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. MrMet33 Posted: February 28, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3088862)
Is there a list of player requests that you're working on?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 28, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3088864)
Scattered throughout a dozen emails!
   3. QuixoticQuasiQuandary Posted: February 28, 2009 at 09:16 PM (#3088970)
It's a good thing I'm at work otherwise there would have been an audible celebration after I read that. ZiPs, saving sim leagues 1 player request at a time. Thanks for crankin on it.
   4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 28, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3089005)
Include age this year, please. Or I'm going to beech about your free product.
   5. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 28, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3089007)
I should mention that ZiPS is fartigulously awesome.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 28, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3089021)
Age is in there!

I didn't mention it yet, but the players will all have UIDs for ease of transitioning, thanks to the efforts of Luke Kraemer of Diamond Mind. For those that didn't see, DMB isn't selling a 2009 projection disk and is sending people this way, so I need to make sure I get as many players in as possible, as there won't be an alternate disk to import players from (and vice-versa).
   7. essurfer Posted: February 28, 2009 at 10:12 PM (#3089042)
Thank you so much! I am really looking forward to it.
   8. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 01, 2009 at 01:05 AM (#3089144)
Dan, thanks a bunch for everything. Age is just icing on the cake!
   9. mrcar Posted: March 01, 2009 at 01:45 AM (#3089162)
I'm excited to see the file, but I can't find the link. Pardon my ignorance, but HELP!?!?!?

Thanks,
Mike
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 01, 2009 at 01:50 AM (#3089168)
Right now, it looks like I should have the first build of both the spreadsheet and the disk posted in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. My initial hope was to have it up Sunday evening/Monday morning, but I got a little surprised by the number of new projection requests I've received.

Mike, it's not up yet!
   11. mrcar Posted: March 01, 2009 at 02:08 AM (#3089176)
Oh, I missed that. Thanks, Big Dan!
   12. Frisco Cali Posted: March 01, 2009 at 04:34 AM (#3089251)
I'm guessing that DMB leagues that used the projection disk in the past will use this disk instead?
   13. QuixoticQuasiQuandary Posted: March 01, 2009 at 05:10 AM (#3089264)
Frisco, that's the plan for my centralized league. We looked at the alternatives or using season disks and at the logistics of starting to build our own disk for this year. In the end, it's just better for us to adapt to a new projection system like ZiPS than it is change programs or give it up altogether.

I can't wait to see the Yankees projections. That will give me the last 2 players on my simulation roster; both slated for reserves to start the year yet still exciting. I'm so excited that it's bordering on impatience!
   14. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: March 01, 2009 at 06:26 AM (#3089316)
Dan-

How do you handle DMB-style injury ratings?
   15. jfish26101 Posted: March 01, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3089476)
Yeah I'm fairly excited to see what the disk is going to look like and the final two teams. Once out, I can begin working on my DC and any last minute changes to the roster that are needed. I imagine White Sox will be out tomorrow? With the Yankees on Tuesday or Wednesday and the first publish of the disk (or at least the excel sheet) as well? Thanks again Dan.
   16. ramsyanks Posted: March 01, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3089578)
Dan

When you say DMB Disk, you mean players not assigned to any teams? Because you still have to do lineups and the schedule, correct? just want to make sure. The playable disk for solo replayers is mid March???

Thanks for all of your work!
   17. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 01, 2009 at 08:22 PM (#3089592)
As always, thanks so much Dan for doing these.
Have you implemented, er, more robust error ratings / splits this year?
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 02, 2009 at 01:12 AM (#3089778)
- The players themselves should be done fairly quickly once any errors or omissions or spotted. Probably by next weekend for leagues.

- Players will all be assigned to teams and then given depth charts after the first release. I'm going to make a release with the teams (which will be before mid-march) and then the teams/depth charts will be last.

- I've always projected errors and this year, a lot of players get splits. DMB does implement generic platoon splits in the event table and the sample size for players to demonstrate a difference that has predictive value is quite high. The players with projected platoon splits is about 210.

- Not much variance in the injury ratings - I get a choice of Iron/Normal/Prone and that's pretty clear-cut. DMB's never really great at injuring players, to be honest.

- You can already see White Sox projections on the ZiPS Facebook Group. I'll post the Yankees there tomorrow. My priority is getting the projection spreadsheet/disk out as quickly as possible while an entry for the White Sox and Yankees will come afterwards (people will have seen the projections, but not the probabilities, which aren't really DMB relevant!)
   19. HowardMegdal Posted: March 02, 2009 at 01:30 AM (#3089795)
Dan,

You are a God among men.

Yours Truly,
Howard
   20. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 02, 2009 at 05:14 AM (#3089929)
DMB does implement generic platoon splits in the event table and the sample size for players to demonstrate a difference that has predictive value is quite high. The players with projected platoon splits is about 210.

Will minor league data be used here as well?
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 02, 2009 at 05:20 AM (#3089934)
Will minor league data be used here as well?

No, simply because players with a large enough sample size to show platoon splits significantly different than typical played in the minors far enough back that Sackmann doesn't have the data.
   22. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: March 02, 2009 at 08:23 AM (#3090001)
DMB isn't selling a 2009 projection disk

Hmmm.... I wonder how much longer it'll be before DMB isn't selling any disks.
   23. Jeff M Posted: March 02, 2009 at 04:32 PM (#3090125)
Perhaps a bit tangential, but can someone extoll the virtues of Diamond Mind beyond what I see in their promotional materials? In particular, how does it compare to Strat's CD-Rom version, which I like? Is it possible to create your own players/teams fairly easily (something that's not easy in the Strat game), or is it a matter of buying new disks all the time?

My hunch is that DM is more accurate and has more actual baseball parameters, but perhaps has a steeper learning curve and clunkier interface. Between the base game, park disks and season disks, I have a fair amount of money in the Strat version. Wondering whether it is past its prime and is worth plunking down an equivalent investment in DM. Thanks.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 02, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3090131)
I think DM's interface is by far the best around. Very bare-bones and streamlined compared to a lot of other games I've played. I can't compare it to Strat, as I've never played it, but DM has long been my gold standard.

I have never created a new team, but I'm fairly certain its easy to do.
   25. stottlemyre Posted: March 02, 2009 at 07:17 PM (#3090380)
I actually used your disk more than I used than the DMB disk last season. This is not meant to slight the efforts of Diamond Mind, but your disk came out earlier and I had more fun with it.
   26. sportznut Posted: March 03, 2009 at 05:51 AM (#3090933)
Dan, I see this projection disk is for version 9. Do you intend on making one for version 10 once that's available?
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3091066)
There's always compatibility going forward - older databases have always worked on new versions, just not vice-versa. Next year will probably be for verion 10.

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