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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

zMLE Worksheets - Important Update

I’m uploading my most recent builds of what I use to do minor league translations.  I still consider this a work-in-progress, but the translations are based off a massive project from this past offseason, in which I looked at over a million same-year and next-year minor-league at-bats (with the next-year numbers being projected backwards in an attempt to weed out aging) at all levels and includes my most recent work with translating BABIP.

I’ve added a “z” to the name of my worksheets simply because it’s probably smart for me to stop using MLE as a generic term for my translations when MLE is actually a specific term for what Bill James devised in the 1985 Abstract.  At this point, the only thing zMLE and MLE have in common is that they both attempt to translate minor league numbers.

Hitters

Pitchers

UPDATE
I noticed over at Royals Review that a couple of the translations done with the tool looked high, especially Kila Kaaihue.  So I double-checked and when I condensed the file to make it smaller and easier for someone not to mess it up, I actually messed it up and deleted a very important field.  Because of a single screwup, it was forcing hitters to have a minimum BABIP of .320!

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 24, 2008 at 02:52 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:24 PM (#2831257)
Dan, can you describe (or link to) the work around translating BABIP. I know you and I touched on it in some other thread around high-K hitters (Brandon Wood maybe?). As I understood it then, you were basically positing a curvilinear relationship with, essentially, an asymptote for BABIP. However at the time I was a bit confused as to whether you were talking about BABIP or BA on-contact (the numbers you cited seemed to high for BABIP to me) and whether this asymptote applied only to high-K hitters or everyone.

I'm interested of course because of my fascination with K-rate and on-contact BA/SLG and, as I poke around here and there (not systematically), I'm having a hard time finding anybody who hits over about 345 BABIP (or about 385 on-contact) for any stretch of time.

I'm almost to the point of putting forward a "Dial-like" (I hope it was Chris) argument that it's just kind of impossible no matter how hard you swing or how often you K. Chris brought this up with regard to Gibson's ERA and that it may just be essentially impossible to give up fewer runs than that (and I disagreed with him!). I'm not convinced that it's impossible to surpass 400/800 on-contact but even in today's game with huge sluggers more than willing to sacrifice Ks for power, it seems nobody can sustain higher rates. Obviously there are a lot more folks putting up very high on-contact numbers but not pushing past that boundary.

So wondering what your research shows. I know I'm talking more about over a whole MLB career rather than the transition from minors to majors so it's not a perfect fit ... but still I think it would be useful for me.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:11 AM (#2831512)
Dan, can you describe (or link to) the work around translating BABIP. I know you and I touched on it in some other thread around high-K hitters (Brandon Wood maybe?). As I understood it then, you were basically positing a curvilinear relationship with, essentially, an asymptote for BABIP. However at the time I was a bit confused as to whether you were talking about BABIP or BA on-contact (the numbers you cited seemed to high for BABIP to me) and whether this asymptote applied only to high-K hitters or everyone.

I'm still working and condensing the research into an article (and perhaps make a SABR presentation proposal if it turns out interesting enough). Your memory of what I'm positing is correct, though, I'm just trying to find the model that makes the most sense. For those that have done nonlinear modeling, there's quite an artistic aspect involved.
   3. Moe Greene Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:30 PM (#2832262)
I'm finding this to be a fun little toy to mess around with.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2832273)
I don't see NW Arkansas, the AA affiliate of the Royals. Is that because its a new park and thus park factors aren't known?
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2832274)
Never mind, I see Wichita.
   6. The District Attorney Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2832279)
How should "zMLE" be pronounced?
   7. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: June 25, 2008 at 06:57 PM (#2832284)
Zumaya
   8. PS is probably going to lose his mind Posted: June 25, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2832287)
Zoomley?
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 25, 2008 at 07:14 PM (#2832295)
I haven't done the new parks yet. Tonight I'll make neutral parks for the new cities/parks.

Zoomley works.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 26, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2833178)
Anyone who downloaded the hitter spreadsheet, download the update!
   11. Walt Davis Posted: June 26, 2008 at 06:41 PM (#2833530)
How should "zMLE" be pronounced?

Thrope Warbler Mangrove
   12. jwb Posted: June 26, 2008 at 06:59 PM (#2833576)
Zoomley? Wasn't he an early Don Adams sidekick?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 26, 2008 at 07:07 PM (#2833603)
Glad I could be the one to point out the error, even inadvertantly! Thanks for your hard work Dan!
   14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: June 30, 2008 at 08:05 PM (#2837743)
Thanks Dan - this is great! Any intention of releasing a version where the sheets are unprotected (I'd like to ad-hoc an '08 version)?

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