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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
zMLE Worksheets - Important Update
I’m uploading my most recent builds of what I use to do minor league translations. I still consider this a work-in-progress, but the translations are based off a massive project from this past offseason, in which I looked at over a million same-year and next-year minor-league at-bats (with the next-year numbers being projected backwards in an attempt to weed out aging) at all levels and includes my most recent work with translating BABIP.
I’ve added a “z” to the name of my worksheets simply because it’s probably smart for me to stop using MLE as a generic term for my translations when MLE is actually a specific term for what Bill James devised in the 1985 Abstract. At this point, the only thing zMLE and MLE have in common is that they both attempt to translate minor league numbers.
Hitters
Pitchers
UPDATE
I noticed over at Royals Review that a couple of the translations done with the tool looked high, especially Kila Kaaihue. So I double-checked and when I condensed the file to make it smaller and easier for someone not to mess it up, I actually messed it up and deleted a very important field. Because of a single screwup, it was forcing hitters to have a minimum BABIP of .320!
Dan Szymborski
Posted: June 24, 2008 at 02:52 PM | 14 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:24 PM (#2831257)I'm interested of course because of my fascination with K-rate and on-contact BA/SLG and, as I poke around here and there (not systematically), I'm having a hard time finding anybody who hits over about 345 BABIP (or about 385 on-contact) for any stretch of time.
I'm almost to the point of putting forward a "Dial-like" (I hope it was Chris) argument that it's just kind of impossible no matter how hard you swing or how often you K. Chris brought this up with regard to Gibson's ERA and that it may just be essentially impossible to give up fewer runs than that (and I disagreed with him!). I'm not convinced that it's impossible to surpass 400/800 on-contact but even in today's game with huge sluggers more than willing to sacrifice Ks for power, it seems nobody can sustain higher rates. Obviously there are a lot more folks putting up very high on-contact numbers but not pushing past that boundary.
So wondering what your research shows. I know I'm talking more about over a whole MLB career rather than the transition from minors to majors so it's not a perfect fit ... but still I think it would be useful for me.
I'm still working and condensing the research into an article (and perhaps make a SABR presentation proposal if it turns out interesting enough). Your memory of what I'm positing is correct, though, I'm just trying to find the model that makes the most sense. For those that have done nonlinear modeling, there's quite an artistic aspect involved.
Zoomley works.
Thrope Warbler Mangrove
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