2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition

This is the final ZiPS release looking ahead at the 2012 season. These were finalized before the A's-Mariners games, so there's not "cheating" by including the 2 days of statistics into the model. The .zip file contains a full spreadsheet for Excel 2010 and CSV files for the batters and pitchers.

In addition to the usual projected things, I've now included the platoon splits and estimated projection for defensive runs.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of ...

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2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s 72-90 record pretty accurately reflects where the team current stands, more than the early summer run that saw the team relevant in the NL Central standings for the first time in years.  A lot of the success with the pitching staff was of the ephemeral variety.  Jeff Karsten and his 3.38 ERA last season stand out - he has a weak resume and as a finesse righty with a fastball in the 80s that can’t keep the ball down enough, he walks that Josh Towers-like line between ...

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2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

I can understand a team trading Mat Latos for quality prospects. I can understand picking up Carlos Quentin and trading off a surplus 1B/OF prospect for starting pitching depth. What I don't understand is doing the things described in the first two sentences in the same offseason. Part of the reason you acquire a slugger for the short-term and trade for depth is because you have Mat Latos on the team, after all. I had the same puzzlement last year as the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez (who ...Read More...

2012 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds had a reasonable argument at being competitive in the NL Central last season (ZiPS had them tied with Brewers, just ahead of Cardinals), but the starting pitching pretty much abandoned the team, with the exception of Johnny Cueto. The addition of Mat Latos obviously improves the rotation, but the team has a bit less depth now and there are less emergency options in the rotation with Travis Wood in Chicago (ZiPS still believes in him enough to give him a ERA+ of 100 there) and Matt ...Read More...

2012 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers projections go up and just about the perfect time: after Betancourt is gone, after Ramirez is signed, but before Fielder signs elsewhere. Fielder's a great player, but the Brewers really do have a solid team that can survive even the loss of their best hitter, especially given that the Cardinals are doing the same thing with the loss of their franchise player.

I'm not too thrilled with the way the whole Aramis Ramirez thing worked out. Aramis is probably a better player than ...

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