— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Monday, September 16, 2002
SUPER-LWTS ? 2001
Mitchel presents the results from last season.
Presenting the results for the 2001 Season
Last year I introduced a revolutionary new metric for evaluating the complete performance of a player. It is called Super Linear Weights, Superlwts, or SLW, and is actually an extension of Pete Palmer?s original linear weights (lwts) formula (defense, baserunning, and a few more offensive categories are added to Pete?s formula). It is based on play-by-play (PBP) data, including hit type and location for all batted balls. I have since revised some of the methodologies, but the essence has remained the same.
Like Palmer?s lwts, each of the categories is expressed as a number of runs above (plus) or below (minus) the league average, which is naturally defined as zero. For example, a player who had a defensive lwts of -5 was a below average fielder. In fact, he allowed 5 more runs to score (theoretically, of course) than an ?average? player. By convention, regardless of the category, minus is always bad and plus is always good. Because each category uses the same ?currency? (runs above or below average), all of the categories can be summed to produce each player?s total linear weights, or Super Linear Weights. A player?s SLW tells us exactly how many runs above or below average he is ?worth? to an average team under average conditions.
It is only better than Palmer?s lwts, BaseRuns, Runs Created, or other similar metrics, because it adds in defensive and baserunning value, and a few extra offensive odds and ends. However, this makes it a much better metric for evaluating total player value. There are many players whose good or great offensive performance are completely negated by their poor defensive and baserunning skills, and vice versa. As well, great defensive value can turn a good offensive player into a great overall player, poor defense can turn an otherwise marginal player into a terrible player, etc. The permutations are unlimited.
2001 Super Linear Weights Results
Here are the Super Linear Weights categories and their brief explanations - (Note: A more detailed explanation of the various methodologies used in SLW can be found in the original two articles. A link to them is provided at the bottom of the page)
2001 Team (if more than one team, the team with the most PA?s)
Primary position (10 is DH or unknown)
Number of PA?s in 2001 (PA=AB+SF+BB+HBP)
UZR - Ultimate Zone Rating or defensive lwts - runs saved or cost on defense, park adjusted, based on PBP hit type and location data.
GDP defense - for infielders only. Number of DP?s turned per DP opportunity, compared to the league average at each position, adjusted for league-average number of opportunities, and converted into runs saved or runs cost. When a DP is turned, the fielder and the pivot man are both credited. If the fielder and the pivot man are the same, only one credit is given. Also park adjusted.
OF arms - UZR does not include throws by the outfielders. This category includes an outfielder?s outs (assists), holds, and extra bases allowed, also compared to league averages, adjusted for league-average opportunities, and converted into runs saved or cost.
Catching - for catchers only, the combined run value of their sb/cs totals, errors, and passed balls, as compared to the league-average catcher.
Taking the extra base - this is the exact “reverse” of the OF arms category - it is extra bases, outs (OOB), and holds by a baserunner.
GIDP - this is a batter?s number of GDP?s per opportunity, compared to the league average, adjusted for league-average number of opportunities, and, as always, converted into runs saved or cost.
Moving runners over - a batter moving a runner from 2nd to 3rd on a fly or ground out (giving oneself up), per opportunity, compared to league averages, and converted into runs.
Batting - traditional offensive linear weights (a la Palmer), including sb/cs. They are park adjusted, using regressed, 3-year (if possible) component park factors.
Super Linear Weights
Superlwts - all previous categories combined.
Superlwts per 162 games - above category prorated to the PA equivalent of 162 games for an average player.
Position adjusted Superlwts - adds in a simple positional adjustment. For example, if an average SS in 2001 had a Superlwts value of -16 per 500 PA, and player A had a Superlwts value of -10 in 250 PA, he gets a plus 8 run adjustment, to give him a position adjusted Superlwts value of -2. (In other words, in 250 PA, he was 2 runs worse than an average SS in 2001.)
Position adjusted Superlwts per 162 games - the above prorated to the PA equivalent of 162 games for an average player.
The chart below contains the results of the 2001 season only.
View the sortable Super Linear Weights, 2001
Note: after clicking the above link, you will be prompted: click NO and wait a few seconds for the results
Posted: September 16, 2002 at 06:00 AM | 18 comment(s)
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