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Primate Studies
— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

2005 Projections: Giants, Cardinals, Mariners

2005 ZiPS Projections for players in the Giants, Cardinals, and Mariners organizations.

All the usual caveats apply.  Stats are for the player’s most recent organization as of today (so A.J. Zapp’s numbers are for the Reds).  Exception being Japanese players who get their most recent MLB organization.

Name               Team   P Age   AVG   OBP   SPC AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HBP BB   K SB CS   ID
Justin Knoedler             c   24 .244 .297 .364 390 95 22   2   7 52 38   4 27 93   7   3 1547
Mike Matheny               c   34 .244 .301 .337 386 94 19   1   5 31 41   3 30 75   0   1 1548
Yorvit Torrealba           c   26 .249 .316 .400 185 46   9   2   5 21 23   2 17 32   1   0 1549
Edgardo Alfonzo             3b 31 .282 .354 .407 521 147 27   1 12 64 69   5 55 42   2   1 1550
Deivi Cruz               ss 32 .271 .298 .395 491 133 30   2   9 52 58   3 18 43   1   3 1551
Ray Durham#              2b 33 .277 .360 .444 477 132 29   6 13 84 59   5 59 72 11   6 1552
Pedro Feliz               3b 30 .274 .303 .476 424 116 26   3 18 58 69   0 19 72   4   2 1553
Lance Niekro               1b 26 .280 .313 .395 314 88 17   2   5 37 34   3 13 37   1   2 1554
J.T. Snow*                1b 37 .271 .382 .418 347 94 25   1   8 48 48   7 57 61   2   1 1555
Barry Bonds*              lf 40 .321 .541 .690 358 115 20   2 36 99 88   9 167 46   5   1 1556
Jason Ellison             lf 27 .271 .323 .370 495 134 25   3   6 73 42   5 35 63 21 15 1557
Fred Lewis*              cf 24 .239 .329 .331 435 104 15   5   5 67 35   4 56 116 20 15 1558
Marquis Grissom             cf 38 .265 .297 .414 517 137 25   2 16 65 71   1 24 84   5   2 1559
Todd Linden#              rf 25 .252 .329 .381 520 131 23   1 14 82 60   6 56 145   9   5 1560
Dan Ortmeier#              rf 24 .240 .306 .372 387 93 21   3   8 52 40   4 34 106 12   9 1561
Tony Torcato*              3b 25 .271 .297 .344 442 120 18   1   4 40 44   5 12 45   3   3 1562
Michael Tucker*            rf 34 .246 .333 .392 439 108 21   5 11 62 52   2 57 98   7   7 1563
Jamie Athas*              ss 25 .240 .302 .292 442 106 13   2   2 55 33   4 37 100 12   9 1564
Mike Cervenak             3b 28 .279 .333 .453 481 134 31   1 17 70 74   5 36 73   3   3 1565
Angel Chavez               ss 23 .220 .259 .285 404 89 13   2   3 41 30   4 18 64 12   7 1566
Brian Dallimore             2b 31 .290 .344 .383 420 122 20   2   5 59 46   4 32 59   6   7 1567
Trey Lunsford             c   26 .236 .297 .305 347 82 16   1   2 30 28   4 27 73   3   2 1568
Donaldo Mendez             ss 27 .221 .283 .331 399 88 23   0   7 60 43   4 32 102   9   7 1569
Julio Ramirez             cf 27 .246 .276 .357 403 99 20   5   5 61 48   4 14 102 16 11 1570
Francisco Santos*          1b 31 .254 .293 .358 358 91 21   2   4 31 37   4 17 60   1   1 1571
Carlos Valderrama           cf 27 .265 .336 .376 412 109 21   2   7 56 39   4 42 85 13 12 1572
A.J. Pierzynski*            c   28 .296 .342 .436 486 144 32   3 10 51 66 15 21 42   1   1 1573
Dustan Mohr               rf 29 .291 .377 .474 327 95 22   1 12 60 50   4 43 79   3   3 1574
Jeffrey Hammonds           rf 34 .236 .321 .360 275 65 15   2   5 24 23   2 33 55   2   3 1575
Cody Ransom               ss 29 .221 .290 .347 357 79 14   2   9 45 36   3 33 102   7   5 1576
Ricky Ledee*              lf 31 .233 .329 .437 215 50 12   1 10 27 32   1 31 54   1   1 1577
David Doster               2b 34 .269 .306 .391 450 121 30   2   7 54 53   4 22 58   4   3 1578
Craig Kuzmic#              3b 28 .222 .317 .345 325 72 13   3   7 39 33   3 44 103   3   2 1579
Adam Shabala*              cf 27 .263 .319 .368 438 115 19   3   7 56 43   4 34 95 11 10 1580
Mike Mahoney               c   32 .255 .305 .356 239 61 13   1   3 24 23   3 15 40   2   1 1604
Cody McKay*              c   31 .239 .285 .332 310 74 12   1   5 29 33   3 18 47   1   2 1605
Yadier Molina             c   22 .273 .332 .341 311 85 10   1   3 32 33   2 27 37   0   1 1606
Bo Hart                 2b 28 .271 .315 .382 490 133 23   5   7 69 47   6 27 90   9   5 1607
Hector Luna               ss 23 .281 .342 .357 370 104 12   2   4 60 33   4 32 61 11   7 1608

Name               Team   P Age   AVG   OBP   SPC AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HBP BB   K SB CS   ID
Albert Pujols             lf 25 .347 .435 .659 622 216 46   2 48 141 144   9 91 63   4   4 1609
Scott Rolen               3b 30 .295 .393 .538 546 161 37   3 30 98 107 12 80 94   7   4 1610
Scott Seabol               3b 30 .271 .321 .445 458 124 24   1 18 64 66   5 31 90   4   3 1611
Roger Cedeno#              rf 30 .265 .322 .363 419 111 19   2   6 52 39   1 36 72 13   6 1612
Jim Edmonds*              cf 35 .287 .402 .588 471 135 33   2 35 88 100   5 89 134   4   4 1613
John Gall                 1b 27 .280 .337 .444 511 143 31   1 17 68 73   5 41 66   2   2 1614
Reid Gorecki               cf 24 .219 .271 .302 453 99 16   2   6 60 36   4 30 69 14 10 1615
John Mabry*              1b 34 .278 .343 .469 209 58 10   0 10 26 35   1 21 49   0   1 1616
Reggie Sanders             rf 37 .245 .310 .447 445 109 24   3 20 60 70   6 38 105 15   6 1617
So Taguchi               cf 35 .248 .289 .346 298 74 15   1   4 36 32   3 15 47   6   6 1618
Larry Walker*              rf 38 .254 .361 .432 366 93 21   4 12 52 52   8 55 74   5   3 1619
Matt Lemanczyk             cf 24 .203 .249 .232 375 76   6   1   1 66 20   4 20 70 27 13 1620
Abraham Nunez#            2b 29 .245 .311 .344 253 62 10   3   3 30 25   3 22 43   4   4 1621
Armando Rios*              rf 33 .251 .311 .361 219 55 10   1   4 20 25   3 17 39   2   5 1622
Skip Schumaker*            cf 25 .267 .330 .333 483 129 20   3   2 61 36   5 42 66 16 13 1623
Edgar Renteria             ss 29 .324 .382 .467 598 194 47   1 12 94 85   6 53 63 22 11 1624
Marlon Anderson*            2b 31 .260 .316 .374 431 112 24   2   7 49 47   3 34 54   9   3 1625
Colin Porter*              rf 29 .265 .316 .402 393 104 24   3   8 48 42   4 27 100 14   8 1626
Jason Bowers               ss 29 .235 .281 .332 391 92 17   3   5 42 33   4 22 67   5   5 1627
Chris Prieto*              cf 32 .256 .327 .323 399 102 13   4   2 58 33   4 40 49 16 13 1628
Kevin Witt*              1b 29 .276 .319 .480 460 127 26   1 22 64 79   4 27 117   1   1 1629
Tino Martinez*            1b 37 .242 .336 .408 458 111 20   1 18 64 76   7 60 66   2   1 1663
Miguel Olivo               c   26 .244 .305 .403 340 83 18   3 10 45 41   4 27 80   9   8 1664
Rene Rivera               c   21 .210 .253 .288 385 81 13   1   5 37 33   4 19 80   0   1 1665
Dan Wilson               c   36 .243 .289 .321 321 78 14   1   3 25 33   1 21 58   0   1 1666
Willie Bloomquist           3b 27 .253 .312 .342 257 65 12   1   3 37 26   1 22 45 12   5 1667
Bret Boone               2b 36 .255 .326 .445 595 152 31   2 26 78 94   5 60 119 10   5 1668
Greg Dobbs*              3b 26 .257 .290 .384 482 124 19   3 12 50 57   5 19 74 10   6 1669
Bucky Jacobsen             1b 29 .268 .352 .514 422 113 24   1 26 64 82   4 53 111   1   1 1670
Justin Leone               3b 28 .240 .333 .455 391 94 22   4 18 72 61   4 52 107   9   4 1671
Jose Lopez               ss 21 .257 .296 .402 505 130 23   1 16 78 66   5 24 59   9   5 1672
Michael Morse             ss 23 .232 .271 .396 384 89 18   3 13 42 49   4 18 85   3   1 1673
Scott Spiezio#            3b 32 .249 .325 .402 450 112 25   4 12 55 60   4 49 58   5   3 1674
Shin-Soo Choo*            cf 22 .271 .337 .397 469 127 12   7 11 72 55   5 44 92 32 17 1675
Raul Ibanez*              lf 33 .284 .339 .456 528 150 31   3 18 69 77   3 43 73   4   3 1676
Jeremy Reed*              cf 24 .285 .360 .412 527 150 24   5 11 73 58   6 58 55 39 16 1677
Chris Snelling*            cf 23 .302 .343 .446 222 67 10   2   6 30 29   2 13 39   3   4 1678
Jamal Strong               cf 26 .277 .366 .339 339 94 11   2   2 48 27   3 46 55 21 14 1679
Ichiro Suzuki*            rf 31 .343 .390 .436 697 239 28   5   9 101 60   5 53 63 29 14 1680
Randy Winn#              lf 31 .286 .348 .424 625 179 37   5 13 87 78   8 54 100 19   8 1681
Vince Faison*              lf 24 .220 .304 .310 336 74 13   1   5 36 29   3 39 100   5   3 1682
B.J. Garbe               cf 24 .166 .235 .223 337 56 13   0   2 31 21   4 27 68 11   7 1683
Wiki Gonzalez             c   31 .243 .321 .355 169 41 11   1   2 15 20   1 19 25   0   0 1684
Ramon Santiago#            ss 25 .216 .286 .280 371 80 11   2   3 44 28   7 31 53 10   6 1685
Edgar Martinez             dh 42 .251 .343 .369 439 110 19   0 11 44 60   4 60 95   1   1 1686
Jolbert Cabrera             2b 32 .264 .314 .384 341 90 22   2   5 38 39   8 18 61   7   4 1687
Dave Hansen*              1b 36 .239 .353 .333 117 28   5   0   2 13 13   0 21 21   0   0 1688
Mickey Lopez#              2b 31 .247 .324 .355 397 98 19   3   6 55 37   5 42 55 11 10 1689
Ryan Christianson           c   24 .237 .298 .363 278 66 12   1   7 35 31   3 22 61   2   1 1690
Elpidio Guzman*            cf 26 .235 .273 .303 468 110 14   3   4 53 37   5 21 86 20 13 1691
Luis Ugueto#              2b 26 .244 .312 .339 357 87 14   4   4 52 35   3 34 91 19 14 1692
A.J. Zapp*                1b 27 .255 .324 .464 494 126 26   1 25 68 80   3 49 173   1   1 1693

Name             Team   P Age   ERA   W   L   S   G GS CG SHO   INN   H   R ER BB   K HR GDP   ID
David Aardsma             mr 23   4.91   5   6   0 55   0   0   0   66.0 64 39 36 44 52   5   6 1516
Jim Brower               mr 32   4.20   7   5   0 67   2   0   0   90.0 90 46 42 37 60   7   8 1517
Brian Burres*            sp 24   4.72   5   6   0 37 11   0   0 103.0 104 59 54 42 86 15   9 1518
Jason Christiansen*        mr 35   5.70   2   3   0 50   0   0   0   30.0 31 20 19 21 20   3   3 1519
Kevin Correia             sp 24   4.78   6   6   0 35 20   0   0 130.0 135 76 69 54 94 17 12 1520
Scott Eyre*              mr 33   4.50   2   2   0 76   1   0   0   62.0 60 34 31 33 47   5   6 1521
Jesse Foppert             sp 24   4.86   6   8   0 21 20   0   0 100.0 93 59 54 58 99 13   9 1522
Wayne Franklin*          sp 31   5.04   8 10   0 37 28   0   0 166.0 178 102 93 74 111 23 15 1523
Brad Hennessey           sp 25   5.25   7 10   0 26 26   0   0 144.0 159 93 84 70 73 17 13 1524
Matt Herges             mr 35   4.25   4   3   0 67   0   0   0   72.0 73 37 34 26 48   7   6 1525
Noah Lowry*              sp 24   4.23   9   7   0 32 30   0   0 164.0 162 84 77 63 128 17 15 1526
Scott Munter             mr 25   5.37   2   4   0 48   1   0   0   67.0 75 44 40 36 30   7   6 1527
Kirk Rueter*            sp 34   4.85   9 11   0 31 31   0   0 178.0 208 105 96 59 56 19 16 1528
Jason Schmidt             sp 32   3.18 16   7   0 30 30   0   0 204.0 171 79 72 68 220 15 17 1529
Erick Threets*            mr 23   8.28   1   3   0 31   0   0   0   50.0 47 50 46 76 48   6   6 1530
Brett Tomko             sp 32   4.73 10 10   0 32 32   0   0 196.0 216 114 103 61 112 27 18 1531
Merkin Valdez             sp 23   5.02   5   7   0 23 21   0   0 120.0 122 73 67 52 103 20 11 1532
Tyler Walker             sp 29   4.61   5   5   0 39 17   0   0 123.0 128 69 63 47 89 16 11 1533
Jerome Williams           sp 23   4.03 10   8   0 27 27   0   0 154.0 155 76 69 54 106 13 14 1534
Matt Cain               sp 20   5.05   7   8   0 24 24   0   0 130.0 127 80 73 70 119 19 12 1535
Brian Cooper             sp 30   5.35   8 11   0 26 25   0   0 148.0 178 96 88 43 62 26 14 1536
Leo Estrella             mr 30   5.96   3   6   0 43   4   0   0   74.0 89 53 49 36 30 12   7 1537
Ryan Jensen             sp 29   5.59   6   9   0 31 26   0   0 153.0 170 104 95 75 95 25 14 1538
Brandon Villafuerte         mr 29   4.56   5   5   0 64   0   0   0   73.0 72 40 37 37 57   7   7 1539
Dave Burba               sp 38   4.27   5   5   0 39 13   0   0 116.0 121 60 55 44 72 10 10 1540
Lee Gardner             mr 30   4.71   4   4   0 57   0   0   0   65.0 69 37 34 23 46   9   6 1541
Jason Jacome*            mr 34   5.19   3   4   0 26   7   0   0   78.0 91 49 45 21 44 15   7 1542
Kevin Pickford*          sp 30   5.34   5   7   0 28 21   0   0 123.0 140 80 73 59 55 15 12 1543
Jeff Urban*              sp 28   4.59   5   4   0 36 12   0   0 102.0 106 57 52 41 69 12   9 1544
Dave Veres               mr 38   5.26   3   5   0 50   0   0   0   53.0 56 34 31 24 41   9   5 1545
Chad Zerbe*              mr 33   4.60   4   4   0 39   9   0   0   86.0 96 48 44 31 36   8   8 1546

Name             Team   P Age   ERA   W   L   S   G GS CG SHO   INN   H   R ER BB   K HR GDP   ID
Rick Ankiel*            sp 25   6.59   1   3   0 15   7   0   0   41.0 37 33 30 43 41   5   4 1581
Carmen Cali*            mr 26   4.89   2   3   0 61   0   0   0   70.0 67 41 38 41 56   7   6 1582
Chris Carpenter           sp 30   3.81 11   7   0 25 25   0   0 156.0 154 72 66 36 128 20 13 1583
Randy Flores*            sp 29   4.75   6   6   0 40 18   0   0 127.0 130 73 67 59 91 15 12 1584
Jason Isringhausen         cl 32   3.00   4   1   0 63   0   0   0   63.0 53 24 21 21 62   3   5 1585
Jimmy Journell           sp 27   4.20   5   5   0 32 12   0   0   90.0 84 46 42 43 77   8   8 1586
Ray King*              mr 31   3.66   4   3   0 81   0   0   0   59.0 55 26 24 25 42   2   5 1587
Mike Lincoln             mr 30   4.08   5   3   0 50   0   0   0   64.0 63 31 29 24 48   6   6 1588
Jason Marquis             sp 26   4.28   9   9   0 31 26   0   0 166.0 167 86 79 62 118 18 15 1589
Matt Morris             sp 30   4.13 13 11   0 31 31   0   0 192.0 196 96 88 54 138 24 17 1590
Rhett Parrott             sp 25   5.03   7   8   0 25 25   0   0 145.0 153 89 81 69 95 19 13 1591
Josh Pearce             sp 27   4.72   4   4   0 21   9   0   0   61.0 66 35 32 19 42 10   5 1592
Al Reyes               mr 35   4.09   4   3   0 59   1   0   0   66.0 59 33 30 27 73   9   6 1593
Evan Rust               mr 27   4.64   4   4   0 53   2   0   0   66.0 64 37 34 37 52   6   6 1594
Jeff Suppan             sp 30   4.52 13 12   0 32 32   0   0 195.0 210 107 98 62 111 24 17 1595
Julian Tavarez           mr 32   3.25   6   3   0 71   0   0   0   72.0 69 28 26 24 43   1   6 1596
Adam Wainwright           sp 23   4.70   5   6   0 22 22   0   0 113.0 113 64 59 47 93 16 10 1597
Greg Bauer               mr 27   5.54   3   5   0 43   3   0   0   78.0 81 52 48 56 44   6   8 1598
Jeremy Lambert           mr 26   5.23   1   2   0 40   0   0   0   43.0 42 27 25 21 47   9   4 1599
Brad Thompson             sp 23   4.44   6   5   0 22 11   0   0   77.0 81 41 38 25 49 10   7 1600
Cal Eldred               mr 37   4.57   4   4   0 56   0   0   0   67.0 67 37 34 25 55 10   6 1601
Jason Simontacchi         sp 31   4.80   7   8   0 40 19   0   0 135.0 150 79 72 42 73 20 12 1602
Alan Benes               sp 33   6.16   6 12   0 29 25   0   0 149.0 170 113 102 86 85 27 14 1603
Scott Atchison           sp 29   4.50   6   7   0 45   9   0   0 108.0 107 59 54 43 92 15 10 1630
Cha Seung Baek           sp 26   4.58   6   8   0 22 20   0   0 106.0 110 59 54 38 75 14 10 1631
Travis Blackley*          sp 22   6.02   6 13   0 26 25   0   0 142.0 154 104 95 88 98 25 14 1632
Ryan Franklin             sp 32   5.05   9 13   0 32 32   0   0 198.0 227 122 111 62 100 32 18 1633
Eddie Guardado*          cl 34   3.95   3   2   0 58   0   0   0   57.0 54 27 25 16 54   8   5 1634
Shigetoshi Hasegawa         mr 36   4.30   4   5   0 62   0   0   0   67.0 69 35 32 27 39   5   6 1635
Aaron Looper             mr 28   5.09   3   4   0 50   0   0   0   76.0 79 47 43 37 55 11   7 1636
Bobby Madritsch*          sp 29   4.80   7 11   0 27 25   0   0 148.0 146 86 79 84 109 14 14 1637
Julio Mateo             mr 27   4.17   2   2   0 47   0   0   0   69.0 70 35 32 17 56 11   6 1638
Gil Meche               sp 26   4.90   8 12   0 30 30   0   0 169.0 176 101 92 68 128 27 15 1639
Jamie Moyer*            sp 42   4.72 10 13   0 34 33   0   0 206.0 224 119 108 63 128 31 18 1640
Clint Nageotte           sp 24   5.18   6 11   0 26 23   0   0 132.0 130 83 76 84 102 14 12 1641
Joel Pineiro             sp 26   3.97 12 10   0 30 27   0   0 179.0 177 86 79 57 138 19 16 1642
J.J. Putz               mr 28   4.85   1   2   0 53   0   0   0   78.0 81 46 42 36 55 10   7 1643
George Sherrill*          mr 28   4.06   4   4   0 48   0   0   0   62.0 59 30 28 21 59   8   5 1644
Rafael Soriano           sp 25   3.48   5   3   0 36 12   0   0   93.0 82 39 36 28 97 10   8 1645
Matt Thornton*            sp 28   6.03   4   8   0 26 14   0   0   91.0 88 67 61 85 70   8   9 1646
Ron Villone*            sp 35   5.00   6 10   0 47 15   0   0 126.0 128 77 70 67 91 15 12 1647
Chris Buglovsky           sp 25   5.44   5 10   0 26 25   0   0 144.0 159 96 87 74 76 19 14 1648
Ben Christensen           mr 27   6.80   1   3   0 13   7   0   0   45.0 51 37 34 37 22   7   5 1649
Brett Evert             sp 24   6.34   3   7   0 32 16   0   0 105.0 112 81 74 68 86 22 10 1650
Sean Green               mr 26   5.72   2   5   0 49   1   0   0   74.0 82 51 47 45 37   9   7 1651
Jeff Heaverlo             sp 27   4.54   3   4   0 23 23   0   0 115.0 123 63 58 43 63 12 10 1652
Felix Hernandez           sp 19   4.19   9   9   0 26 25   0   0 144.0 131 74 67 64 143 17 13 1653
Masao Kida               mr 36   5.09   2   3   0 22 10   0   0   76.0 83 47 43 27 49 13   7 1654
Allen Levrault           mr 27   5.28   3   6   0 29 14   0   0   92.0 100 59 54 41 57 14   8 1655
Bill Pulsipher*          mr 31   5.36   2   4   0 39   0   0   0   42.0 43 27 25 29 28   4   4 1656
Andy Shibilo             mr 28   4.94   2   4   0 44   0   0   0   62.0 60 37 34 36 52   7   6 1657
Bill Simas               mr 33   4.50   2   2   0 24   1   0   0   38.0 42 20 19   9 19   5   3 1658
Aaron Taylor             mr 27   5.12   2   3   0 49   0   0   0   58.0 55 36 33 36 52   7   5 1659
Craig Anderson*          sp 24   6.22   5 12   0 27 23   0   0 139.0 167 105 96 66 64 28 13 1660
Jared Hoerman             mr 28   5.66   3   5   0 48   2   0   0   62.0 63 42 39 46 47   7   6 1661
Gustavo Martinez           sp 24   6.31   4 11   0 30 20   0   0 127.0 135 97 89 102 83 17 13 1662

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2005 at 03:37 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Passed Ball Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:11 PM (#1058295)
Do you have a projection for Kiko Calero? Am I missing him in the A's projections?
   2. CraigK Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:26 PM (#1058326)
Dan, do you make these in a normal text editor or do you use something like Excel?

Is there any chance of someone making these a spreadsheet?
   3. SG Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:27 PM (#1058333)
Passed Ball, there's a ZiPS for Calero in the Mulder trade thread:
Player         W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
-------------------------------------------------------------
Calero         2   1  35   0   40   36   16   6  14  46  3.60
   4. Passed Ball Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:40 PM (#1058366)
Right on. Thanks SG.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2005 at 04:44 PM (#1058374)
Actually, Craig, neither. The DMB 9.0 report is the most convenient - the text version of the report is all nice and preformatted so all I have to do is stick in the tag.

I always do a spreadsheet (plus the DMB disk), but not until I'm actually finished. Less work to do. I had hoped to be finished this week, but my 3 and a half days of jury duty ate a good chunk of that valuable christmas-new year time.
   6. jsandman32 Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:01 PM (#1058403)
I'm sorry I'm new here so this is a really stupid question I'm sure. Are these the numbers they would be projected to put up in the bigs? For example it has Felix Hernadez with a 4.19ERA. Is that what zips projects him at for AAA or MLB?

Again sorry for the dumb question.
   7. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:17 PM (#1058444)
I've seen a lot of Renteria PAs. I know Fenway is a good park for a RH doubles hitter, but I will be shocked if he comes close to .324/.382/.467. I'm also skeptical about the Larry Walker projections. I'd guess ZiPS has the same problem predicting post-Coors performances as everyone else does.
   8. CoastalFan Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:29 PM (#1058482)
Whoa - not looking good for Ankiel, huh? I guess ZIPS wants him to show us something besides winter league success, right? I agree there...especially with the "twinge & cringe" news....
   9. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 05, 2005 at 05:44 PM (#1058524)
I wonder if that Lincoln projection takes into account the remarkable degree to which he's been screwed by his bullpenmates the past two seasons. He looked insanely good last year, throwing 95 MPH with movement and a great curve, but damned near every time he left with a runner on base someone else came in and gave him an earned run.

Ankiel has been medically cleared and is resuming throwing, btw.
   10. SG Posted: January 05, 2005 at 06:39 PM (#1058652)
jsandman32, all ZiPS projections are for MLB.
   11. Fog City Blues Posted: January 05, 2005 at 09:46 PM (#1059113)
Dan, what would Mohr's projection be if he was still with the Giants? I'm just curious to see how it compares with Moises Alou's ZiPS.

And Mattheny's projection is downright frightening, although it's certainly not surprising. He's basically Neifi with a chest protector.
   12. PuxicoRG Posted: January 05, 2005 at 10:01 PM (#1059142)
Triple crown for Pujols? I hope he does it.

I too am new to these projections. What is the rationale behind start estimates on starting pitchers. For example - your showing Cardinal starters with more than 200 starts (without Mulder.) Among other things, you have Wainwright with 22 starts, Parrot with 25, and Simontacchi with 19. Are those estimates assuming (for example) that one of them is going to start a lot in an emergency role, thus here is what it would look like if it was this guy vs. this guy? Just curious.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1059275)
ZiPS are not playing time predictors, by design. Whether or not John Gall *will* play in the majors is a question I have zero desire to try to get a computer to answer - how John Gall *would* play in the majors is where I want to know.

I don't think a projection of "John Gall - .000/.000/.000" or "Rhett Parrott - 0-0, 0.00" supplies any knowledge.
   14. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 06, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1059432)
ZiPS are not playing time predictors

I can't believe you didn't stick this disclaimer at the bottom of the page! At least you don't have to read "Is that Haren projection for real?" from a dozen different Cubs fans.

I know projections off one minor league season are extraordinarily spotty, but my guess is that Anthony Reyes is the first pitcher off the farm for the Cardinals. Could you find it in your heart to project him?
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 06, 2005 at 03:21 AM (#1059716)
ZiPS likes him quite a bit (4.11) - full projection will appear with the last 3-team set. Even after I'm done, I always give in to peer pressure and do requests for additional projections, even ones I hate doing, like Rickie Weeks last year.
   16. jsandman32 Posted: January 06, 2005 at 03:57 AM (#1059792)
Thanks SG for clearing that up for me.

And thanks also to Dan for doing these projections!
   17. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 06, 2005 at 04:06 AM (#1059809)
Thanks, Dan. Almost makes up for your careful insertion of Tino Martinez at the end of the Cardinals hitters.

Hector Luna's 25, not 23. Thought that projection looked too good.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 06, 2005 at 02:54 PM (#1060347)
Actually, the reason Tino Martinez is in there is because the signing was announced between the time that I had done the Cards projections and the time I started the Giants projections and I wasn't up to Tampa Bay in alphamabetical order.
   19. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 06, 2005 at 09:14 PM (#1061310)
Here's another request - SS John Nelson (St. Louis).
Thanks for doing these, Dan!
   20. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 07, 2005 at 05:34 AM (#1062614)
Jacobsen looks surprisingly good, as do a number of other advanced minor leaguers. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Seattle looks almost like a contender from this. OK not really.
   21. Lawyerhoya Posted: January 08, 2005 at 05:58 AM (#1065062)
Whither Woody Williams?
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 08, 2005 at 06:12 AM (#1065080)
Did the Cincy/Cleveland pitcher numbers ever get posted?
   23. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 10, 2005 at 12:17 AM (#1068149)
Check out Edmonds's b-r page. Uh, I think the sponsor might be forgetting about someone.
   24. Kinanik Posted: January 16, 2005 at 04:08 AM (#1082390)
What is the '1' after the CS on all the hitters?

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