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Primate Studies
— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game

Friday, December 24, 2004

2005 Projections: Phillies, Pirates, Padres

2005 ZiPS Projections for players from the Phillies, Pirates, and Padres organizations.

All the usual caveats apply.  As a reminder, park factors are for the player’s most recent MLB organization - Kerry Robinson’s projection is for Shea, not Petco.

Name               Team   P Age   AVG   OBP   SPC AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HBP BB   K SB CS   ID
Michel Hernandez           c   26 .253 .333 .353 249 63 10   0   5 33 27   3 28 32   1   1 1359
Mike Lieberthal             c   33 .280 .346 .436 486 136 29   1 15 55 67 12 39 68   0   1 1361
Todd Pratt               c   38 .248 .355 .385 117 29   7   0   3 13 15   3 17 41   0   0 1362
Carlos Ruiz               c   26 .227 .264 .353 317 72 11   1   9 33 33   3 14 37   5   4 1363
David Bell               3b 32 .266 .346 .425 492 131 28   1 16 61 68   6 56 74   1   1 1364
Ryan Howard*              1b 25 .250 .316 .462 500 125 23   1 27 70 82   5 45 186   2   1 1366
Tomas Perez#              3b 31 .245 .301 .384 237 58 16   1   5 28 26   1 19 50   0   1 1367
Juan Richardson             3b 26 .211 .255 .341 308 65 10   0 10 29 34   3 16 97   1   2 1368
Jimmy Rollins#            ss 26 .278 .339 .422 677 188 41   9 13 106 74   2 64 100 27 12 1369
Jim Thome*                1b 34 .267 .396 .571 517 138 26   1 43 93 114   3 111 165   0   3 1370
Chase Utley*              2b 26 .275 .341 .462 487 134 30   2 19 75 77   6 45 95   7   4 1371
Bobby Abreu*              rf 31 .301 .427 .507 584 176 46   1 24 106 99   4 128 127 27 10 1372
Pat Burrell               lf 28 .252 .361 .463 523 132 28   2 26 71 86   3 89 151   1   0 1373
Marlon Byrd               cf 27 .262 .325 .387 527 138 30   3 10 78 55   7 44 99   8   3 1374
Lou Collier               ss 31 .269 .336 .434 394 106 25   2 12 58 56   5 36 100   8   8 1375
Kenny Lofton*              cf 38 .271 .335 .392 424 115 21   6   6 66 38   5 37 50 16   6 1376
Jason Michaels             cf 29 .283 .377 .422 251 71 11   0   8 37 34   2 37 70   2   2 1377
Jorge Padilla             rf 25 .239 .314 .327 376 90 15   0   6 50 38   4 38 79 13   9 1378
Mark Budzinski*            rf 31 .258 .331 .358 469 121 24   7   3 70 38   5 48 112 10 10 1379
Chris Coste               c   32 .278 .328 .389 316 88 21   1   4 35 35   4 21 46   2   1 1380
Buzz Hanahan               2b 29 .236 .321 .292 288 68 11   1   1 40 20   3 34 66 10   4 1381
A.J. Hinch               c   31 .217 .279 .318 258 56 12   1   4 22 26   3 20 56   0   1 1382
Jim Rushford*              lf 31 .257 .320 .366 487 125 25   2   8 56 55   5 42 57   2   2 1383
Danny Sandoval             ss 26 .270 .325 .364 522 141 30   2   5 69 50   5 39 73 20 16 1384
Shawn Wooten               dh 32 .238 .304 .348 256 61 16   0   4 28 28   3 22 43   1   1 1385
Placido Polanco             3b 29 .297 .350 .434 518 154 27   1 14 77 65 10 34 42   8   4 1386
Doug Glanville             cf 34 .227 .263 .304 273 62   7   1   4 27 22   1 13 38   8   1 1387
Pablo Ozuna               2b 30 .257 .293 .354 401 103 21   3   4 55 42   5 17 45 22 15 1388
J.P. Roberge               lf 32 .252 .306 .350 317 80 20   1   3 31 30   3 23 59   2   1 1389
Mark Smith               lf 35 .248 .307 .400 395 98 25   1 11 45 51   4 31 79   2   2 1390
Humberto Cota             c   26 .239 .302 .374 289 69 16   1   7 35 33   3 24 77   2   3 1426
Ryan Doumit#              c   24 .233 .291 .371 348 81 22   1   8 48 41   3 27 65   2   0 1427
J.R. House               c   25 .267 .320 .458 273 73 17   1 11 30 40   3 19 63   1   1 1428
Ronny Paulino             c   24 .245 .301 .399 331 81 16   1 11 41 43   4 24 56   3   2 1429
Jose Bautista             3b 24 .202 .283 .295 129 26   7   1   1 16 14   1 14 43   1   3 1430
Jose Castillo             2b 24 .267 .318 .365 446 119 17   3   7 56 48   3 32 76   7   5 1431
Brad Eldred               1b 24 .237 .284 .456 447 106 21   1 25 60 78   4 27 114   3   2 1432
Bobby Hill#              2b 27 .254 .342 .369 409 104 20   3   7 56 41   8 48 70   9   6 1433
Freddy Sanchez             3b 27 .282 .354 .386 337 95 21   1   4 49 36   3 36 47   8   4 1434
Daryle Ward*              1b 30 .257 .309 .433 381 98 23   1 14 40 58   3 27 60   0   1 1435
Ty Wigginton               3b 27 .264 .336 .424 538 142 35   3 15 66 69   5 55 87   8   2 1436
Jack Wilson               ss 27 .286 .326 .413 623 178 33   8 10 75 64   4 36 67   6   4 1437
Jason Bay                 lf 26 .286 .375 .497 433 124 10   3 25 71 77   7 57 111 11   6 1438
Rajai Davis#              cf 24 .256 .315 .325 477 122 18   3   3 72 34   5 38 62 32 15 1439
Chris Duffy*              cf 25 .273 .323 .357 488 133 20   3   5 77 41   5 33 83 21 16 1440
Rob Mackowiak*            3b 29 .248 .326 .410 459 114 21   4 15 58 61   6 49 108 11   4 1441
Nate McLouth*              cf 23 .282 .339 .394 475 134 29   3   6 79 49   5 38 65 30 14 1442
Tike Redman*              cf 28 .287 .332 .386 557 160 22   6   7 71 52   4 35 49 21 10 1443
Craig Wilson               rf 28 .267 .361 .496 490 131 29   4 25 79 78 26 48 137   2   2 1444
Damon Minor*              1b 31 .239 .318 .413 397 95 20   2 15 46 55   4 43 85   0   0 1445
Ray Sadler               rf 24 .257 .305 .408 448 115 25   2 13 57 56   5 28 92 13   9 1446
Rich Thompson*            cf 26 .267 .318 .328 457 122 10   6   2 77 33   5 31 68 33 19 1447
Luke Allen*              lf 26 .253 .317 .376 450 114 20   1 11 59 48   4 40 88   5   5 1448
Tony Alvarez               cf 26 .281 .337 .436 417 117 24   1 13 64 55   4 33 73 19 13 1449
Tomas de la Rosa           ss 27 .230 .297 .340 265 61 12   1   5 29 28   3 23 41   4   3 1450
Keith McDonald             c   32 .228 .302 .375 267 61 15   0   8 26 32   3 26 52   1   1 1451
Mike Moriarty             ss 31 .224 .307 .338 331 74 19   2   5 40 29   3 38 70   5   4 1452
Carlos Rivera*            1b 27 .263 .313 .438 384 101 22   0 15 46 54   4 25 63   5   3 1453

Name               Team   P Age   AVG   OBP   SPC AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HBP BB   K SB CS   ID
Chris Stynes               3b 32 .225 .304 .349 315 71 20   2   5 37 36   4 33 48   2   1 1454
Raul Mondesi               rf 34 .251 .321 .448 451 113 25   2 20 66 66   3 46 84 12 10 1455
Ramon Hernandez             c   29 .265 .333 .421 430 114 22   0 15 52 64   8 38 60   0   0 1485
Miguel Ojeda               c   30 .248 .329 .392 153 38   4   0   6 19 24   2 17 31   0   0 1486
Humberto Quintero           c   25 .277 .310 .372 347 96 21   0   4 34 39   3 15 38   0   1 1487
Josh Barfield             2b 22 .250 .307 .377 515 129 23   3 12 78 70   5 39 122   8   3 1488
Geoff Blum#              3b 32 .231 .285 .344 372 86 19   1   7 37 40   1 28 57   1   1 1489
Taggert Bozied             1b 25 .265 .328 .437 339 90 17   1 13 46 51   3 30 58   1   0 1490
Sean Burroughs*            3b 24 .297 .354 .382 542 161 23   4   5 76 56 10 40 61   6   4 1491
J.J. Furmaniak             ss 25 .245 .303 .377 440 108 19   3 11 60 52   5 33 101   8   7 1492
Khalil Greene             ss 25 .275 .342 .428 528 145 30   3 15 66 70   7 49 104   3   4 1493
Mark Loretta               2b 33 .318 .382 .457 575 183 37   2 13 84 77   7 55 49   4   4 1494
Paul McAnulty*            1b 24 .215 .297 .325 465 100 22   1   9 55 47   5 51 103   2   2 1495
Phil Nevin               1b 34 .277 .352 .463 462 128 24   1 20 61 81   3 53 102   1   0 1496
Brian Giles*              lf 34 .273 .387 .468 549 150 31   5 22 85 88   5 100 73   8   4 1497
Freddy Guzman#            cf 24 .248 .328 .305 472 117 15   3   2 74 33   5 53 90 56 37 1498
Ben Johnson               rf 24 .214 .287 .379 425 91 19   3 15 58 55   5 40 129   7   3 1499
Ryan Klesko*              1b 34 .272 .374 .454 427 116 28   1 16 56 70   2 70 76   3   3 1500
Jon Knott                 rf 26 .250 .347 .459 444 111 25   1 22 70 74   4 64 124   5   3 1501
Xavier Nady               rf 26 .275 .329 .448 426 117 21   1 17 65 65   5 31 78   3   2 1502
Jesse Garcia               2b 31 .264 .294 .325 326 86 12   1   2 32 25   3 12 50   8   8 1503
Jose Nieves               3b 30 .231 .273 .316 247 57 11   2   2 26 21   3 12 29   4   3 1504
Kerry Robinson*            lf 31 .279 .325 .343 251 70   9   2   1 40 21   2 16 27 17 13 1505
Greg Sain                 1b 24 .218 .293 .374 455 99 20   0 17 57 63   4 46 139   1   1 1506
Rich Aurilia               ss 33 .240 .297 .351 467 112 23   1   9 52 51   3 37 79   1   1 1507
Jeff Cirillo               3b 35 .218 .280 .283 321 70 12   0   3 28 30   6 23 44   3   3 1508
Alex Gonzalez             ss 32 .217 .278 .360 442 96 25   1 12 46 49   3 36 105   3   3 1509
Robert Fick*              1b 31 .245 .316 .381 412 101 24   1 10 40 52   4 40 61   1   1 1510
Bernie Castro#            2b 25 .276 .322 .331 362 100 11   3   1 44 26   4 22 40 28 11 1511
Jake Gautreau*            3b 25 .232 .309 .372 401 93 18   1 12 42 49   4 42 109   1   3 1512
Yamid Haad               c   27 .243 .289 .386 280 68 16   0   8 32 34   3 16 48   2   2 1513
Ben Risinger               3b 27 .240 .300 .330 321 77 17   0   4 29 31   3 26 48   1   1 1514
Bobby Scales#              2b 27 .242 .331 .337 297 72 20   1   2 36 27   3 38 65   5   3 1515
Name             Team   P Age   ERA   W   L   S   G GS CG SHO   INN   H   R ER BB   K HR GDP   ID
Eude Brito*              mr 26   5.60   4   8   0 41   5   0   0   82.0 84 56 51 50 68 13   8 1323
Keith Bucktrot           sp 24   5.83   5 10   0 23 22   0   0 125.0 145 89 81 55 70 24 12 1324
Francisco Butto           sp 23   6.84   5 14   0 31 20   0   0 121.0 142 101 92 77 77 28 12 1325
Rheal Cormier*            mr 38   4.19   5   4   0 71   0   0   0   73.0 74 37 34 29 49   6   7 1326
Gavin Floyd             sp 22   4.82   8   9   0 28 26   0   0 157.0 159 92 84 78 116 18 14 1327
Geoff Geary             mr 28   4.24   4   3   0 48   4   0   0   87.0 87 45 41 30 68 10   8 1328
Cory Lidle               sp 33   4.25 12 11   0 32 32   0   0 199.0 213 103 94 59 115 21 18 1329
Ryan Madson             sp 24   3.63   9   5   0 37 16   0   0 124.0 116 55 50 40 106 11 11 1330
Brett Myers             sp 24   4.52 11 11   0 32 31   0   0 183.0 189 101 92 66 133 24 16 1331
Vicente Padilla           sp 27   3.96 12 10   0 29 29   0   0 175.0 179 84 77 51 118 17 15 1332
Franklin Perez           sp 27   4.83   5   6   0 30 18   0   0 110.0 121 64 59 33 69 18 10 1333
Rob Tejada               sp 23   6.75   5 12   0 24 23   0   0 124.0 140 102 93 71 105 33 12 1334
Amaury Telemaco           mr 31   4.28   6   6   0 33 21   0   0 141.0 149 73 67 33 99 21 12 1335
Billy Wagner*            cl 33   2.91   4   1   0 66   0   0   0   68.0 55 24 22 19 82   6   6 1336
Randy Wolf*              sp 28   4.19 11   9   0 29 29   0   0 176.0 174 90 82 59 146 22 16 1337
Tim Worrell             mr 37   3.96   6   4   0 77   0   0   0   75.0 73 36 33 27 60   7   7 1338
Erick Burke*            mr 27   5.91   3   5   0 52   0   0   0   70.0 75 50 46 46 47 10   7 1339
Robert Ellis             sp 34   4.85   7   9   0 29 25   0   0 156.0 179 91 84 43 79 24 14 1340
Martire Franco           mr 27   4.76   4   5   0 33   9   0   0   85.0 92 49 45 30 50 11   8 1341
Dan Giese               mr 28   4.45   6   7   0 53   0   0   0   85.0 90 46 42 22 64 14   7 1342
Lee Gwaltney             sp 25   5.78   6 11   0 23 23   0   0 123.0 137 86 79 68 72 19 12 1343
Cole Hamels*            sp 21   4.84   3   4   0 16 16   0   0   80.0 70 47 43 49 95 12   7 1344
Brian Powell             sp 31   5.03   6   7   0 28 19   0   0 127.0 141 78 71 48 70 18 12 1345
Jeremy Wedel             mr 28   4.40   3   2   0 33   0   0   0   47.0 49 25 23 20 25   3   4 1346
Kevin Millwood           sp 30   3.66 14   8   0 32 32   0   0 192.0 182 85 78 62 158 16 17 1347
Paul Abbott             sp 37   6.55   4   9   0 22 20   0   0 103.0 119 82 75 64 62 21 10 1348
Roberto Hernandez         mr 40   5.37   3   4   0 62   0   0   0   57.0 60 37 34 31 42   8   5 1349
Jim Crowell*            mr 31   4.50   4   5   0 46   0   0   0   56.0 58 30 28 21 39   7   5 1350
Dave Coggin             mr 28   5.10   2   3   0 26   7   0   0   60.0 60 37 34 33 48   8   6 1351
Eric Milton*            sp 29   5.48   9 11   0 31 31   0   0 179.0 209 120 109 54 133 36 16 1352
Clay Condrey             sp 29   5.35   6 10   0 28 24   0   0 138.0 162 90 82 43 71 26 13 1353
Greg Kubes*              mr 28   4.80   6   7   0 37 14   0   0 120.0 134 70 64 37 69 18 11 1354
Seung Lee               sp 26   5.39   6   8   0 30 20   0   0 132.0 144 86 79 54 97 25 12 1355
Ed Yarnall*              sp 29   5.37   4   5   0 24 22   0   0 104.0 108 68 62 58 80 15 10 1356
Chad Gaudin             sp 22   4.58   4   5   0 37 16   0   0 114.0 120 63 58 48 89 13 10 1357
Dustin Moseley           sp 23   5.40   5   7   0 23 23   0   0 135.0 158 89 81 50 81 22 12 1360
Ben Weber               mr 35   4.24   3   3   0 55   0   0   0   68.0 74 35 32 21 39   5   6 1365
Bobby Bradley             sp 24   5.64   3   5   0 17 17   0   0   83.0 91 57 52 50 53 10   8 1391
Sean Burnett*            sp 22   4.50   8 10   0 25 25   0   0 136.0 155 74 68 43 60 11 12 1392
Josh Fogg               sp 28   4.98   8 13   0 31 31   0   0 170.0 196 103 94 60 88 21 16 1393
Mike Gonzalez*            mr 27   3.36   3   1   0 58   0   0   0   67.0 56 27 25 27 75   4   6 1394
John Grabow*            mr 26   4.20   4   5   0 56   5   0   0   90.0 90 46 42 30 81 11   8 1395
Mike Johnston*            mr 25   5.40   2   4   0 45   0   0   0   55.0 58 36 33 34 40   6   5 1396
Brian Meadows             sp 29   4.80   2   3   0 54   3   0   0   75.0 88 44 40 16 43 12   7 1397
Jose Mesa               cl 39   4.63   4   5   0 69   0   0   0   68.0 73 38 35 29 42   6   6 1398
Jeff Miller             mr 25   5.29   4   6   0 41   3   0   0   68.0 71 44 40 35 57 10   6 1399
Oliver Perez*            sp 23   3.84   9   8   0 25 24   0   0 171.0 150 80 73 66 205 21 15 1400
Matt Peterson             sp 23   6.17   4 11   0 24 23   0   0 124.0 140 93 85 76 86 21 12 1401
Mark Redman*            sp 31   4.31 11 12   0 31 31   0   0 192.0 210 101 92 59 115 18 17 1402
Ian Snell               sp 23   4.76   8 10   0 28 27   0   0 153.0 162 89 81 58 120 21 14 1403
Cory Stewart*            sp 25   5.91   4 10   0 21 21   0   0 105.0 115 75 69 66 78 16 10 1404
Salomon Torres           sp 33   4.40   7   7   0 50 16   0   0 141.0 152 75 69 43 95 16 13 1405
John van Benschoten         sp 25   5.40   6 11   0 28 27   0   0 145.0 156 96 87 79 105 19 14 1406
Ryan Vogelsong           sp 27   5.14   7 11   0 29 27   0   0 140.0 149 88 80 66 107 19 13 1407
Kip Wells               sp 28   4.60   9 10   0 29 29   0   0 174.0 181 98 89 71 132 19 16 1408
Dave Williams*            sp 26   4.69   5   6   0 25 22   0   0 119.0 126 68 62 44 93 16 11 1409
Juan Acevedo             cl 35   4.33   3   3   0 46   0   0   0   52.0 56 27 25 19 31   4   5 1410
Jason Boyd               mr 32   5.40   1   3   0 45   0   0   0   55.0 61 36 33 26 38   8   5 1411
Bryan Bullington           sp 24   5.72   6 13   0 26 25   0   0 137.0 161 96 87 57 85 25 13 1412
Eddy Candelario           mr 25   6.30   2   5   0 33   8   0   0   80.0 89 61 56 54 55 13   8 1413

Name             Team   P Age   ERA   W   L   S   G GS CG SHO   INN   H   R ER BB   K HR GDP   ID
Ron Chiavacci             sp 27   5.97   4   8   0 30 15   0   0 110.0 118 80 73 73 83 16 11 1414
Mark Corey               mr 30   4.57   3   4   0 63   0   0   0   69.0 67 38 35 33 65   8   6 1415
Zach Duke*              sp 22   4.50   8 10   0 26 26   0   0 138.0 145 75 69 50 103 16 12 1416
Willis Roberts           mr 30   4.74   3   5   0 48   0   0   0   57.0 61 33 30 25 39   6   5 1417
Nelson Figueroa           sp 31   5.10   7 12   0 35 24   0   0 166.0 189 103 94 54 108 27 15 1418
Brian Boehringer           mr 36   4.95   3   4   0 57   0   0   0   60.0 62 36 33 29 47   7   6 1419
Frank Brooks*            mr 26   5.72   3   6   0 49   5   0   0   85.0 97 59 54 31 69 20   8 1420
Hector Almonte           mr 29   5.91   2   5   0 47   1   0   0   64.0 69 46 42 43 48   9   6 1421
Mike Crudale             mr 28   6.00   2   3   0 48   0   0   0   54.0 62 39 36 29 39 10   5 1422
Chris Fussell             sp 29   5.89   4   8   0 34 20   0   0 133.0 150 95 87 76 90 21 13 1423
Danny Haren             sp 24   4.53 10 11   0 33 28   0   0 169.0 174 94 85 47 141 30 15 1424
Kiko Calero             mr 30   3.60   2   1   0 35   0   0   0   40.0 36 18 16 14 46   6   3 1425
Brad Baker               mr 24   4.79   2   3   0 53   7   0   0   77.0 67 45 41 56 89   6   7 1456
Adam Eaton               sp 27   4.35 11 11   0 31 31   0   0 180.0 189 96 87 56 144 22 16 1457
Justin Germano           sp 22   4.69   9 11   0 30 29   0   0 167.0 185 96 87 52 11 22 15 1458
Trevor Hoffman           cl 36   2.94   4   2   0 54   0   0   0   52.0 47 18 17 12 52   3   4 1459
Brian Lawrence           sp 29   4.32 13 13   0 34 33   0   0 204.0 226 107 98 55 127 22 18 1460
Scott Linebrink           mr 28   3.49   4   2   0 60   2   0   0   80.0 75 34 31 29 71   4   7 1461
Marty McLeary             mr 30   5.50   3   5   0 39   5   0   0   72.0 76 48 44 49 53   7   7 1462
Blaine Neal             mr 27   3.95   4   3   0 63   0   0   0   73.0 72 35 32 26 58   5   6 1463
Akinori Otsuka           mr 33   3.18   5   2   0 67   0   0   0   65.0 56 25 23 21 75   5   6 1464
Chris Oxspring           sp 28   5.55   4   6   0 28 16   0   0   99.0 100 67 61 72 84 10 10 1465
Jake Peavy               sp 24   3.48 14   5   0 29 29   0   0 176.0 162 74 68 54 174 14 15 1466
Tanyon Sturtze           sp 34   5.29   7   9   0 35 19   0   0 160.0 186 103 94 62 97 22 15 1467
Randy Williams*          mr 29   5.72   4   6   0 53   0   0   0   74.0 77 51 47 52 58   8   7 1468
Woody Williams           sp 38   4.16 11 10   0 30 30   0   0 186.0 196 94 86 55 132 18 16 1469
Jay Witasick             mr 32   4.34   2   2   0 44   0   0   0   58.0 58 30 28 25 52   6   5 1470
Antonio Osuna             mr 32   3.27   5   2   0 47   0   0   0   55.0 49 22 20 21 53   2   5 1471
Rod Beck               cl 36   5.79   1   3   0 31   0   0   0   28.0 32 19 18 11 23   6   3 1472
Sterling Hitchcock*        sp 34   4.64   3   4   0 26   5   0   0   66.0 69 37 34 25 51   8   6 1473
Brian Sweeney             sp 31   4.50   7   8   0 32 23   0   0 146.0 157 80 73 43 110 20 13 1474
Steve Watkins             mr 26   4.98   5   7   0 38 16   0   0 121.0 128 73 67 58 93 14 11 1475
Eddie Oropesa*            mr 33   4.92   3   4   0 58   0   0   0   53.0 51 31 29 34 48   4   5 1476
Andy Ashby               sp 37   4.73   8 10   0 27 24   0   0 139.0 155 80 73 54 78 13 13 1477
Mike Bynum*              sp 27   5.92   4   9   0 43 16   0   0 117.0 127 84 77 72 96 19 11 1478
Mike Brunet             sp 28   5.18   3   5   0 26 14   0   0   92.0 102 58 53 39 63 13   8 1479
Roger Deago*            sp 28   5.56   3   6   0 28 16   0   0 102.0 108 69 63 67 77 11 10 1480
Clay Hensley             sp 25   4.99   8 12   0 26 26   0   0 146.0 157 89 81 61 110 20 13 1481
Jose Nunez*              mr 26   6.88   1   2   0 13   0   0   0   17.0 19 15 13 13 11   3   2 1482
Tim Stauffer             sp 23   5.38   6 10   0 28 28   0   0 159.0 185 104 95 61 96 25 15 1483
Matt Bruback             sp 26   4.79   7 10   0 27 26   0   0 154.0 160 90 82 75 120 16 14 1484

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 24, 2004 at 12:16 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. stubbyc Posted: December 24, 2004 at 01:33 AM (#1039006)
It's amazing to me how Eric Milton is more heavily pursued than Kevin Millwood.
   2. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 24, 2004 at 03:36 AM (#1039129)
How is Oliver Perez going to go 9-8 with a 3.84 ERA while Salomon Torres is 7-7 with a 4.40 ERA? Is Torres going to get better run support or something?
   3. Tom G. Posted: December 24, 2004 at 04:23 AM (#1039183)
I'm not sure which is worse, the 260-something OBP predicted for Doug Glanville, or the 270-some AB's preditcted for Doug Glanville...
   4. alkeiper Posted: December 24, 2004 at 05:17 AM (#1039266)
Those projections for Kenny Lofton and Marlon Byrd look awfully similar.
   5. stubbyc Posted: December 24, 2004 at 05:38 AM (#1039299)
The 10.7 K/9 projection for Hamels is pretty impressive.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 24, 2004 at 03:02 PM (#1039585)
Perez isn't going to get many wins, because the team isn't going to score many runs. As the primary setup man, Torres should be in the best position for vulture wins, though, and the team has to win once in a while.
   7. number 6 Posted: December 24, 2004 at 06:47 PM (#1039666)
Someone needs to explain to the Pirates FO that bad hitting stats don't equal good defense.
   8. number 6 Posted: December 24, 2004 at 06:49 PM (#1039670)
Pirates pitching has more control problems than geriatrics.
   9. Spivey Posted: December 25, 2004 at 08:23 AM (#1040341)
I don't understand how Perez's ERA is going to be that bad.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 25, 2004 at 09:32 PM (#1040606)
- 3.84 isn't bad.

- As good as Perez was, his DIPS ERA was ~3.70 in 2004. If Perez can manage to outperform DIPS ERA to the level of Randy Johnson, one of the best at it, that would still only give him a 3.50-3.60 ERA with 2004's performance, without factoring in regression to the mean.

- The Pirates defense is not likely to be particularly good in 2005, to say the least.

- Regression to the mean - only 2 active starters have ERAs below Perez's 2004 ERA.

- Neither young pitchers nor hitters improve in a straight line. Mike Piazza's growth was unusual.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 26, 2004 at 02:57 AM (#1040752)
Why is Jason Bay's doubles total so low?
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2004 at 03:40 AM (#1040773)
Entry error. That'll be fixed when the first build of the disc/spreadsheet comes out in a week or two. I put 4 in as his 2004 double total rather than 24.
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 26, 2004 at 05:46 PM (#1041268)
Thanks, Dan. By the way: You rock!
   14. Spivey Posted: December 28, 2004 at 10:44 PM (#1043979)
I think what's odd is Perez' peripherals seemed to improve while his ERA got worse. If his DIPS ERA was 3.70, and he was 22...and has always had a history of great stuff but bad control (until last year), and you project good control, I figure he will continue to improve on that ERA.

I suppose his H/IP was abnormally low, and that does need to be regressed. Still, I'd take the under on that ERA.
   15. Russ Posted: December 30, 2004 at 07:55 PM (#1046929)
The Pirates suck.

Without Kendizzall, we're totally fizzucked.
   16. charlie Posted: December 30, 2004 at 10:47 PM (#1047385)
Nice job on these, Dan. Most of these Pirates numbers are fairly close to what I would predict, and I'm a pretty involved fan. The ones last year looked kind of optimistic, but these look better.

One that gets me is Mike Gonzalez - last year he put up a 9:1 K:BB ratio. I don't see him doing that again, but neither do I see that ratio dropping below 3. That guy's stuff is fantastic.
   17. pyrite Posted: December 31, 2004 at 09:40 PM (#1049014)
Name          P   Age   ERA   W   L
Clay Hensley  sp  25   4.99   8  12
I'm always confusing him with Clay Henry...

Jose Castillo  2b  24  .267  .318  .365
Bobby Hill#    2b  27  .254  .342  .369 
Freddy Sanchez 3b  27  .282  .354  .386
Ty Wigginton   3b  27  .264  .336  .424
Jack Wilson    ss  27  .286  .326  .413
Rob Mackowiak* 3b  29  .248  .326  .410

Six players for three positions and we still can't get another OF or 1B to boot Redman and/or Ward from the lineup. Blah.

It's not like this wasn't abundantly clear already, but Jose Casillo should've started 2004 in AAA. It was a foolish panic move to bring him north based on a few spring training at bats and Lloyd preference for defense (-12 UZR in '04) over winning games.

The Pirates made the exact same mistake with Jack Wilson, who was also promoted from AA to the majors. Now that Wilson is finally good he's getting expensive.

You can buy a full extra year of pre-arb and pre-FA time by bringing the kids up in mid-June. The A's know it. The Twins know it. I doubt the Pirates will ever learn...

Pirate fans should check out WTM's draft review and charlie's blog. The Pirates don't deserve your excellent work...

Thanks to Dan for the projections. No need for us to worry about Gonzo's projection, it's basically the same as Billy Wagner's.
   18. charlie Posted: January 02, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1050326)
Thanks, Pyrite.
   19. big ben Posted: January 03, 2005 at 02:37 AM (#1052066)
Theres no way Gavin Floyd will have stats like that this year
He is way too good-he will be much better than that at the major league level

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