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— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game

Monday, October 04, 2004

2005 ZiPS, Build 1

2005 projections for players in the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Braves organizations.

Note:  There are a few fringe players that are no longer in any of these three organizations that were listed here for convenience (for example, Cory Aldridge).

Name                     P Age   AVG   OBP   SPC AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HBP BB   K SB CS
Vladimir Guerrero           rf 29 .333 .405 .568 558 186 32   3 31 100 109   7 64 68 18   8
J.D. Drew*                rf 29 .296 .417 .537 460 136 23   5 26 95 80   5 94 99   9   3
Richie Sexson             1b 30 .286 .388 .546 538 154 27   1 37 85 106   8 85 127   1   2
Marcus Giles               2b 27 .317 .396 .500 454 144 34   2 15 76 65   9 53 70 13   4
Chipper Jones#            3b 33 .278 .388 .491 515 143 27   1 27 79 92   2 94 89   3   1
Greg Colbrunn             1b 35 .296 .342 .556 108 32   8   1   6 15 14   0   8 15   0   0
Jose Guillen               lf 29 .301 .356 .513 515 155 27   2 26 80 91 14 32 87   3   4
Adam LaRoche*              1b 25 .294 .367 .478 391 115 25   1 15 57 58   3 44 90   0   1
Luis Gonzalez*            lf 37 .263 .379 .463 467 123 31   4 18 70 69   3 86 60   4   3
Casey Kotchman*            1b 22 .316 .369 .444 414 131 32   0   7 55 55   6 30 38   3   0
Andruw Jones               cf 28 .272 .354 .502 596 162 34   2 33 92 103   5 74 138   6   5
Troy Glaus               3b 28 .258 .364 .471 391 101 18   1 21 68 67   4 63 93   6   3
Johnny Estrada#            c   29 .306 .364 .440 445 136 33   0   9 49 64   8 35 56   0   0
Dallas McPherson*          3b 24 .275 .341 .513 501 138 26   6 27 88 85   5 47 153 14   8
Chad Tracy*              3b 25 .313 .367 .434 530 166 30   2 10 71 63   2 45 59   2   3
Eli Marrero               rf 31 .283 .347 .476 286 81 17   1 12 42 45   1 28 53   5   2
Ryan Langerhans*            rf 25 .276 .369 .441 460 127 27   2 15 80 61   5 65 109   8   6
Jeff DaVanon#              cf 31 .280 .367 .436 314 88 15   2 10 48 43   1 44 55 14   6
Garret Anderson*            lf 33 .299 .333 .488 551 165 37   2 21 67 88   0 30 77   4   3
Rafael Furcal#            ss 27 .297 .358 .430 644 191 30   7 14 116 70   2 62 84 26   8
Charles Thomas*            lf 26 .296 .363 .427 412 122 20   5   8 60 47   8 37 81   6   4
Robb Quinlan               1b 28 .304 .351 .442 425 129 24   4   9 60 53   4 29 71   5   4
Tim Salmon               rf 36 .258 .357 .431 415 107 26   2 14 54 58   7 59 79   3   2
Shea Hillenbrand           1b 29 .297 .336 .456 563 167 35   2 17 69 75 11 25 64   2   1
Adam Kennedy*              2b 29 .288 .342 .411 465 134 24   3   9 63 55   5 33 72 17   8
Andy Marte               3b 21 .262 .345 .440 409 107 20   1 17 58 55   4 50 107   2   1
Carlos Quentin             rf 22 .286 .333 .442 423 121 24   0 14 85 56   4 27 54   8   1
Conor Jackson             lf 23 .272 .349 .422 408 111 24   2 11 71 50   4 46 67   7   3
Chone Figgins#            3b 27 .297 .357 .412 546 162 22 13   5 84 48   2 51 85 27 13
Craig Ansman               c   27 .252 .321 .480 294 74 17   1 16 51 47   3 28 99   1   1
Adam Riggs               2b 32 .272 .321 .480 423 115 31   3 17 74 66   4 28 82   7   4
Alex Cintron#              ss 26 .298 .340 .426 547 163 33   5   9 69 44   3 34 51   3   4
Josh Kroeger*              rf 22 .294 .347 .423 385 113 23   3   7 56 45   3 30 77   5   5
Noochie Varner             lf 24 .297 .354 .399 464 138 17   3   8 71 50   5 38 83   5   4
Kelly Johnson*            lf 23 .271 .334 .433 432 117 25   3 13 61 51   5 38 103 12   5
Koyie Hill#              c   26 .281 .340 .410 417 117 24   0 10 61 54   4 35 79   2   1
Chris Snyder               c   24 .259 .333 .431 425 110 28   0 15 68 62   4 45 76   2   1
Scott Hairston             2b 25 .271 .319 .454 421 114 20   6 15 43 39   2 29 98   4   3
Carlos Baerga#            2b 36 .294 .345 .400 160 47   8   0   3 18 16   2 11 17   1   1
Damon Hollins             lf 31 .270 .320 .449 381 103 27   1 13 48 54   4 25 66   4   3
Andy Green               2b 27 .283 .337 .419 442 125 35   2   7 44 36   4 34 58 10   7
Mike Hessman               1b 27 .253 .312 .466 395 100 19   1 21 55 62   4 31 96   2   3
Nick Gorneault             lf 26 .271 .318 .442 498 135 31   3 16 82 69   5 31 132   8   5
Darin Erstad*              1b 31 .271 .325 .373 531 144 26   2   8 75 57   5 37 72 17   5
Danny Bautista             rf 33 .281 .329 .396 445 125 22   1   9 49 50   4 30 58   5   2
Matt Kata#                2b 27 .274 .321 .414 449 123 26   5   9 65 45   3 30 73   5   4
Robby Hammock             c   28 .264 .321 .406 318 84 20   2   7 41 38   2 26 59   3   3
Nick Green               2b 26 .270 .321 .407 378 102 21   2   9 47 44   5 25 82   3   4
Doug DeVore*              rf 27 .257 .310 .426 397 102 21   2 14 51 51   3 29 98   5   4
Alan Zinter#              1b 37 .238 .313 .400 260 62 15   0   9 33 38   2 27 64   0   0
Julio Franco               1b 46 .266 .334 .358 271 72 11   1   4 30 32   1 28 62   2   1
Jeff Mathis               c   22 .243 .322 .377 440 107 22   2 11 68 51   4 49 83   4   1
David Eckstein             ss 30 .276 .343 .339 551 152 22   2   3 84 50 16 43 46 15   7
Bengie Molina             c   30 .272 .306 .396 386 105 18   0 10 35 50   3 17 32   0   1
Quinton McCracken#          rf 34 .266 .324 .378 233 62 14   3   2 30 21   1 20 41   3   4
Wilson Betemit#            3b 24 .253 .321 .376 423 107 17   4   9 51 45   3 41 101   5   4
Victor Hall*              cf 24 .284 .350 .341 405 115 10   5   1 63 29   4 39 75 15 13
Barry Wesson               cf 28 .262 .307 .387 393 103 22   3   7 43 43   4 23 85   9   4
DeWayne Wise*              cf 27 .249 .295 .421 337 84 15   5 11 48 39   3 20 59 10   5
Andres Galarraga           1b 44 .240 .305 .361 288 69 14   0   7 28 34   6 21 79   1   3
Tim Olson                 3b 26 .260 .313 .383 384 100 20   0   9 55 42   3 28 82   5   5
Oscar Salazar             2b 27 .246 .308 .388 338 83 17   2   9 35 41   3 29 57   3   3
Wil Nieves               c   27 .268 .299 .382 380 102 19   3   6 45 40   4 14 61   4   1
Cory Aldridge*            cf 26 .233 .299 .397 433 101 17   3 16 61 52   4 38 141 10   6
Luis Terrero               cf 25 .269 .311 .369 431 116 17   7   4 70 37   2 24 99 13 17
Alberto Callaspo#          ss 22 .269 .327 .327 520 140 14   2   4 72 49   5 42 22 21   7
Curtis Pride*              lf 36 .255 .311 .385 247 63 12   1   6 55 29   3 18 53   5   6
Zach Sorensen#            2b 28 .265 .332 .349 415 110 15   4   4 63 37   4 39 73 18 15
Jose Molina               c   30 .265 .298 .338 272 72 12   1   2 25 25   3 10 59   0   2
Gary Johnson*              rf 29 .232 .314 .347 409 95 18   4   7 52 39   4 46 104   4   4
Mark DeRosa               2b 30 .255 .312 .344 294 75 14   0   4 34 29   4 21 46   1   2
Alfredo Amezaga#            ss 27 .263 .314 .354 396 104 18   3   4 55 37   4 27 69 11 10
Scott Thorman*            1b 23 .235 .292 .365 468 110 19   3 12 44 54   4 35 95   5   2
Juan Brito               c   25 .253 .295 .357 269 68 11   1   5 35 29   1 16 55   1   1
Eddie Perez               c   37 .244 .283 .368 242 59 12   0   6 16 27   1 13 33   0   1
Reggie Abercrombie           cf 24 .251 .276 .399 431 108 18   5 12 60 47   4 12 145 17 10
Jeff Francoeur             rf 21 .245 .278 .367 433 106 16   2 11 60 48   5 16 78   9   4
Joe DePastino             c   31 .237 .292 .332 283 67 13   1   4 28 28   1 22 53   1   0
Brad Cresse               c   26 .231 .280 .361 299 69 18   0   7 35 33   3 18 88   0   0
Jerry Gil                 ss 22 .244 .275 .370 459 112 22   6   8 35 34   5 16 94 14   7
Josh Paul                 c   30 .241 .294 .311 241 58   9   1   2 21 21   2 17 52   3   3
Shane Halter               3b 35 .214 .274 .358 313 67 11   2 10 29 36   1 26 69   1   4
Jorge Velandia             ss 30 .210 .286 .320 400 84 21   1   7 41 37   4 40 85   1   3
Cristian Guerrero           cf 24 .232 .275 .348 405 94 14   3   9 48 42   4 21 94 11   8
Jackson Melian             lf 25 .205 .270 .308 415 85 13   3   8 40 35   4 34 90   5   4
Onil Joseph               cf 23 .238 .286 .282 425 101   9   2   2 53 28   4 26 97 23 11
Tony Pena                 ss 24 .234 .265 .320 465 109 16   0   8 53 37   5 16 100 22 15
Marland Williams           cf 24 .234 .281 .312 458 107 15   3   5 74 32   5 27 111 37 25
Ryan Budde               c   25 .207 .260 .302 358 74 10   0   8 44 36   3 24 86   2   3
Tom Gregorio               c   28 .198 .242 .320 197 39 10   1   4 18 19   2 10 50   1   1
Donnie Sadler             2b 30 .158 .227 .225 240 38   7   3   1 33 20   2 20 35   6   5

Name             Team   P Age   ERA   W   L   S   G GS CG SHO   INN   H   R ER BB   K HR GDP
John Smoltz             cl 38   2.81   2   0   0 71   0   0   0   77.0 66 26 24 16 77   5   6
Francisco Rodriguez         mr 23   2.82   6   2   0 61   0   0   0   83.0 59 28 26 32 116   6   7
Randy Johnson*            sp 41   2.88 17   9   0 32 32   0   0 219.0 176 77 70 51 261 20 18
Brendan Donnelly           mr 33   3.31   4   1   0 59   0   0   0   68.0 55 28 25 24 75   5   6
Scot Shields             mr 29   3.63   8   3   0 53   6   0   0 119.0 111 52 48 37 103   9 10
Stephen Andrade           mr 27   3.75   4   2   0 35   0   0   0   48.0 40 22 20 18 57   6   4
Matt Mantei             cl 31   3.92   3   4   0 39   0   0   0   39.0 33 19 17 15 47   5   3
Jaret Wright             sp 29   3.98 11   7   0 36 24   0   0 147.0 137 71 65 61 120 10 13
Buddy Hernandez           mr 26   4.02   4   3   0 47   0   0   0   65.0 55 31 29 34 66   5   6
Kelvim Escobar           sp 29   4.02 13   7   0 41 26   0   0 179.0 167 88 80 69 162 16 16
Juan Cruz               sp 26   4.06   6   2   0 42   8   0   0   93.0 85 46 42 42 86   8   8
John Thomson             sp 31   4.07 13   9   0 33 33   0   0 199.0 208 100 90 48 129 22 17
Mike Koplove             mr 28   4.09   4   4   0 68   0   0   0   77.0 76 38 35 30 56   5   7
Kevin Gregg             sp 27   4.12   8   5   0 41 17   0   0 131.0 130 66 60 40 107 14 11
Jose Valverde             cl 25   4.14   3   4   0 61   0   0   0   63.0 51 31 29 32 80   7   6
Dusty Bergman*            mr 27   4.15   4   3   0 51   4   0   0   89.0 93 45 41 24 61   9   8
Brandon Webb             sp 26   4.16   9 12   0 32 31   0   0 188.0 172 96 87 93 163 13 17
Dan Meyer*              sp 23   4.21 10   6   0 28 26   0   0 139.0 131 71 65 49 130 18 12
John Lackey             sp 26   4.21 15 10   0 33 32   0   0 201.0 206 103 94 58 149 22 18
Oscar Villarreal           mr 23   4.26   6   7   0 68   2   0   0   74.0 69 38 35 35 66   6   7
Brandon Medders           mr 25   4.26   3   3   0 47   0   0   0   57.0 50 29 27 28 60   6   5
Will Cunnane             mr 31   4.32   5   3   0 51   1   0   0   73.0 70 38 35 31 62   8   7
Paul Byrd               sp 34   4.34 12   9   0 26 26   0   0 170.0 184 90 82 30 112 26 15
Antonio Alfonseca         mr 33   4.38   5   3   0 69   0   0   0   72.0 72 38 35 30 47   5   6
Jose Capellan             sp 24   4.40   5   4   0 18 17   0   0   86.0 80 46 42 48 68   5   8
Jeremy Ward             mr 27   4.41   3   5   0 45   0   0   0   49.0 52 26 24 15 30   5   4
Randy Choate*            mr 29   4.50   2   4   0 69   1   0   0   66.0 62 36 33 35 52   4   6
Chris Reitsma             mr 27   4.54   8   7   0 58 11   0   0 117.0 125 65 59 35 72 14 10
Sam McConnell*            sp 29   4.54   7   5   0 34 14   0   0 101.0 110 56 51 32 53 11   9
Roman Colon             mr 25   4.55   6   5   0 56   5   0   0   97.0 100 53 49 39 66 10   9
Brian Bruney             mr 23   4.57   4   5   0 60   0   0   0   63.0 53 35 32 45 65   4   6
Jarrod Washburn*          sp 30   4.60 13 10   0 30 30   0   0 180.0 196 101 92 51 113 23 16
Bartolo Colon             sp 32   4.60 16 12   0 33 33   0   0 219.0 231 121 112 70 154 28 20
Brandon Lyon             mr 25   4.62   5   9   0 38 14   0   0 111.0 122 62 57 32 65 14 10
Matt Hensley             sp 26   4.68   6   4   0 30 17   0   0 123.0 132 70 64 36 88 18 11
Dustin Nippert           sp 24   4.72   3   5   0 15 15   0   0   80.0 72 46 42 51 72   6   7
Lance Cormier             sp 24   4.73   7 11   0 32 29   0   0 156.0 166 90 82 59 101 18 14
Scott Service             mr 38   4.76   2   4   0 46   0   0   0   51.0 50 29 27 20 51   9   5
Russ Ortiz               sp 31   4.76 13 12   0 34 34   0   0 204.0 203 118 108 104 143 18 19
Greg Aquino             mr 27   4.76   3   5   0 34 12   0   0   85.0 83 49 45 46 66   8   8
Casey Fossum*            sp 27   4.79   6 11   0 35 25   0   0 141.0 139 82 75 56 129 22 13
Horacio Ramirez*          sp 25   4.85   7   6   0 22 21   0   0 130.0 139 77 70 54 76 14 12
Mike Hampton*            sp 32   4.85 11 11   0 30 30   0   0 180.0 195 106 97 77 89 16 17
Chuck Smith             sp 35   4.87   6   5   0 24 20   0   0 122.0 124 72 66 51 97 17 11
Andrew Good             sp 25   4.88   5   9   0 27 20   0   0 131.0 146 78 71 26 91 25 12
Edgar Gonzalez           sp 22   4.92   7 12   0 30 26   0   0 159.0 176 96 87 48 102 25 14
Shane Nance*            mr 27   4.94   4   6   0 59   1   0   0   71.0 70 43 39 33 62 10   6
Derrick Turnbow           mr 27   4.95   4   4   0 51   2   0   0   80.0 77 48 44 44 71   9   7
Jeff Fassero*            mr 42   4.97   4   7   0 53   8   0   0   96.0 104 58 53 41 53 11   9
Richard Fischer           sp 24   4.99   5   4   0 24 21   0   0 119.0 129 73 66 40 84 19 11
Tim Drew               sp 26   5.04   7   7   0 33 20   0   0 134.0 153 82 75 47 58 16 12
Kevin Gryboski           mr 31   5.06   3   3   0 64   0   0   0   48.0 50 29 27 28 28   3   5
Troy Percival             cl 35   5.06   3   2   0 53   0   0   0   48.0 47 29 27 23 45   7   4
Travis Smith             sp 32   5.18   8   9   0 33 23   0   0 139.0 162 88 80 40 67 23 13
Ramon Ortiz             sp 29   5.19 11 11   0 32 26   0   0 170.0 190 107 98 58 110 28 15
Shane Reynolds           sp 37   5.20   6 11   0 25 24   0   0 142.0 160 90 82 55 76 20 13
Bobby Jenks             sp 24   5.20   4   4   0 13 13   0   0   64.0 57 40 37 51 59   4   6
Chris Bootcheck           sp 26   5.21   8   9   0 29 28   0   0 171.0 195 108 99 56 100 27 16
Jake Woods*              sp 23   5.28 10 10   0 29 29   0   0 167.0 184 107 98 73 101 22 15
Phil Stockman             sp 25   5.31   5   9   0 24 23   0   0 122.0 118 79 72 80 105 13 11
Steve Sparks             sp 39   5.31   4 10   0 36 18   0   0 144.0 165 93 85 55 71 20 13
Alec Zumwalt             mr 24   5.40   5   5   0 44   0   0   0   70.0 69 46 42 48 54   7   7
Aaron Sele               sp 35   5.40   8   8   0 26 25   0   0 135.0 158 89 81 54 60 17 13
Tom Martin*              mr 35   5.40   1   1   0 75   0   0   0   45.0 47 29 27 24 33   6   4
Mike Fetters             mr 40   5.40   2   3   0 56   0   0   0   50.0 47 33 30 35 41   5   0
Chad Durbin             sp 27   5.42   5 10   0 27 15   0   0   93.0 97 61 56 46 75 15   9
Armando Almanza*          mr 32   5.60   3   3   0 45   0   0   0   45.0 44 31 28 25 41   8   4
Beltran Perez             sp 23   5.63   2   5   0 33 14   0   0 123.0 136 85 77 61 79 19 12
Scott Dunn               mr 27   5.66   6   7   0 43   7   0   0   89.0 87 61 56 61 79 11   8
Stephen Randolph*          mr 31   5.68   4   9   0 40 14   0   0 111.0 112 77 70 74 87 14 11
Casey Daigle             sp 24   5.70   5 11   0 28 26   0   0 158.0 185 110 100 60 85 29 15
Eric Cyr               sp 26   5.72   4   5   0 21 16   0   0   85.0 91 59 54 50 60 12   8
Steve Green             sp 27   5.76   8 10   0 26 26   0   0 125.0 135 88 80 76 79 15 12
Mike Gosling*            sp 24   5.81   4 10   0 28 25   0   0 141.0 161 100 91 67 80 23 13
Matt Blank*              sp 28   5.84   6   9   0 31 23   0   0 134.0 156 96 87 56 74 25 13
Delvin James             sp 27   5.91   3   4   0 26 17   0   0 105.0 131 76 69 31 50 22 10
Brady Raggio             mr 32   6.00   3   7   0 46   4   0   0   75.0 88 55 50 23 52 19   7
Tim Bittner*            sp 25   6.08   7 10   0 27 20   0   0 111.0 119 82 75 76 75 14 11
Steve Smyth*            sp 27   6.53   4   8   0 26 20   0   0 113.0 125 90 82 74 77 21 11
Bill Murphy*            sp 24   6.90   3 13   0 26 26   0   0 133.0 145 112 102 97 111 29 13

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2004 at 04:11 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 04, 2004 at 04:39 PM (#896907)
Major points for timeliness!
   2. Craig in MN Posted: October 04, 2004 at 05:39 PM (#897032)
Took you long enough!
   3. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 04, 2004 at 05:58 PM (#897082)
DP/IP looks pretty consistent across pitchers. How much went into building this field - is it primarily a function of baserunners (minus some factor of HR) per IP?

Also, Dan, would you mind posting your MLEs for '03 somewhere 'round these parts? Thanks!
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2004 at 06:03 PM (#897098)
Don't pay any attention to the GDP column - I don't project them, but I forget that DMB automatically estimates. More obviously, as usual, I don't do projections for saves, complete games, or shutouts.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2004 at 06:05 PM (#897106)
ZiPS 2003 is scattered all over my computer (I'll have to accumulate them again). They can still be found in the 2003 previews. ZiPS 2004 was the first I did with DMB and I can send anyone data if they missed it (also available in the 2004 previews).
   6. DEF: needs food badly Posted: October 04, 2004 at 06:08 PM (#897115)
Dan,

Any numbers on how your projections compared to the actual DMB projections for 2004?

Any projection for Kyle Davies?

Thanks.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2004 at 06:29 PM (#897189)
Scot,

No idea, I don't have the actual DMB projections for 2004!

As for Davies, I get a 5.43 projected ERA with the Braves (he'll eppear on the DMB disk now, also). Of course, all the caveats about statistical projections of a 20-year-old pitcher with half a season above A-ball apply! I usually hold off on projecting players in that mold unless someone specifically requests them.

And whoever e-mailed me "YUR PROJECTIONS ARE STUPID WHERE IS BARRY BONDS" these are only 10% of the final projections!
   8. Plastic Bag and a Rubber Band Posted: October 04, 2004 at 06:36 PM (#897198)
Pork Pie - did you back test last years ZIPS? I thought your r/g level was too high - and still looks too high.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2004 at 07:33 PM (#897341)
Actually, last year's ZIPS r/g turned out to be 0.2 a game too low in both leagues!
   10. Plastic Bag and a Rubber Band Posted: October 04, 2004 at 07:44 PM (#897355)
Did you check the variance amoung individuals slugging and obp?
   11. The Other Kurt Posted: October 04, 2004 at 07:56 PM (#897376)
Dan,

Thanks! Looking forward to the rest of your ZiPS. It was one of my favorite features last offseason.
   12. Sydney_dave Posted: October 04, 2004 at 08:26 PM (#897425)
Dan,

Another fan of the ZIPs projections here.

I used your projections for the 2004 Cards.

I made some guesses for the playing time of some of the players (using prorated projections based on ABs), and used the actual projected for the expected regulars (Pujols, Edmonds, et al).

When I added in pitchers and trued up for the estimated number of seasonal ABs, I got 851 runs--and they scored 854.

I'd call that a direct hit.

I was about 10 off for the Cubs, using the same method, and about 20 off for the Astros.

The pitchers for the Cards was way off (to the good) but for a Cards fan, that was a good thing.

Thanks again,

Dave
   13. bob mong Posted: October 04, 2004 at 08:27 PM (#897427)
Ahhhhh...ZiPS. Sweet. Free, comprehensive, projections. :)
   14. MM1f Posted: October 04, 2004 at 08:28 PM (#897429)
"Cory Aldridge .233/.299/.397 w/ 16HRs"

Man, Zips is waaay to nice to hitters, I'm sorry but there is absolutely NO way Aldridge does that, even if he got any major league PT, which he wont.
   15. Darren Posted: October 04, 2004 at 08:59 PM (#897495)
What's the rush?

Very cool. Thanks.
   16. J. Cross Posted: October 04, 2004 at 09:52 PM (#897571)
Dan, it really looked like 2004 ZiPS was much kinder to hitters than pecota. Is this true? You don't happen to know the pecota r/g, do you?
   17. Shredder Posted: October 05, 2004 at 02:29 AM (#897840)
Yikes! Percival's ERA jumps over two runs, and goes higher by a full half run than it's ever been in his career?
   18. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 05, 2004 at 02:36 AM (#897845)
The Orioles are going to be really disappointed in Russ Ortiz, aren't they?
   19. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 05, 2004 at 02:39 AM (#897850)
Paul Byrd seems like the kind of pitchers ZiPS would really dislike, but it projects him to be average. He might be a good low-cost re-sign. Then they can plug Meyer or Cruz into the other slot(s), depending on Ramirez, and keep rolling. Cruz is going to be next year's "Mazzone miracle," and this time Leo won't even have to do anything.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 05, 2004 at 05:48 AM (#898106)
"Cory Aldridge .233/.299/.397 w/ 16HRs
Man, Zips is waaay to nice to hitters, I'm sorry but there is absolutely NO way Aldridge does that, even if he got any major league PT, which he wont."

Well, we'll find out! At least we'll find out how he does in AAA.

I'm constantly surprised by how often a projection I think is way wrong will come out right immediately next to a projection I think that was terrific will come out dead wrong.

Besides, 233/299/397 isn't exactly all that impressive either - I'd wager there are a *ton* of incompetent outfielders that could do that sort of sub-replacement level mush in a peak season. Look at Charles Thomas - he couldn't even hit as a 24-year-old repeating the Carolina League and he's had value.
   21. Colin Posted: October 05, 2004 at 02:53 PM (#898490)
Wow, ZiPS _hates_ the Braves pitching staff's chances for next year. Ouch
   22. OlePerfesser Posted: October 06, 2004 at 05:05 PM (#900975)
Add my thanks to those of all the previous grateful posters, Dan. Esp. for the speed of the projections--these are big fun, and the more time we have to obsess over them, the better!

Great job.
   23. Dave Bowman Posted: October 07, 2004 at 04:50 PM (#903332)
Dan,

How heavily does ZiPS weight most recent performance against previous performances? I ask 'cause, y'know, Eli Marrero at .283/.347/.476? It's not just Marrero; there are other things (Noochie Varner's .354 OBP, Nick Green looking good with the bat for a utility IFer, etc) that made me wonder.

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