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Monday, November 07, 2005

BTF Awards - 2005 NL Rookie of the Year

This race was just as close as our AL balloting, with the top 4 fighting it out and getting most of the votes.

Baseball Think Factory’s 2005 NL Rookie of the Year - 1B Ryan Howard

Despite Jim Thome’s injuries and offensive collapse, the Phillies still managed to get a 260/350/468, 31 HR performance out of their first basemen, thanks solely to Ryan Howard.  After terrorizing the International League early on (371/467/690), the loss of Thome enabled Howard to step in and take the starting job.  He made the most of his opportunity, crushing 22 homers in only 312 at-bats.  The Phillies now have a real problem on their hands as Howard deserves the job but Thome is still under contract going forward.

2nd Place - SP Zach Duke

He’s not really a Duke, but if the Pirates ever establish their own monarchy, the rookie starter is a lock to wind up a member of the peerage.  Duke only required a half-season to take home the runner-up spot, going 8-2, 1.81 in 14 starts for the Bucs.  Duke and Paul Maholm were good enough to make the Pirates forget about Oliver Perez’ season, in which anything that could go wrong did.  If only the Pirates could identify players that can hit, they might be in business.  Don’t count on it.

3rd Place - OF Jeff Francoeur

Nobody will ever confuse Francoeur with a walk-happy Moneyball hitter, but when he’s on, he’s very effective at aggressive “see ball hit ball” hitting techniques.  Francouer will probably be frustrating to a lot of fans as he’ll go through a lot of hot and cold streaks.  He hit 300/336/549 with the Braves despite only hitting 275/322/487 for Mississippi.

4th Place - OF Willy Taveras

Apparently, some of our voters really think Taveras was a great defensive player (I’m not one of them).  Taveras hit 291/325/341 for the Astros in 2005, good for an OPS+ of 77, which would be the 3rd-lowest of all-time for a ROY award winner.  He does have a decent glove, though, and flashed the leather, if not a good arm, many times during the Astros run to the World Series.

5th Place - OF Ryan Church

Church made the most of his chance after Termel Sledge’s injury, hitting 287/353/466 and being a dependable source of offense for the Nationals during their playoff run.  Like most of the rest of the team, he went south after the All-Star break, going 231/315/353 for the second half.  If not for that, he might have been challenging for the award along with the top 4 players listed here.

6th Place - RP Chad Qualls

Qualls provided another valuable bullpen arm for the Astros this year and as the year went on, he became Garner’s go-to guy in clutch situations before Brad Lidge would be brought in for the save.  And the Astros sorely needed the quality relief work they got from Qualls, Lidge, Wheeler, and Gallo - they had to clamp down those leads in the 7th and later as the Astro offense wasn’t going to bail them out later.  Qualls finished with a 3.28 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings for the NL Champs.

7th Place - 3B Garret Atkins

After a late start thanks to an April injury, Atkins held down 3B for the very young Rockies, causing nobody to miss Vinny Castilla and being much better with the glove than his reputation (he’s always been considered a poor defensive 3B that was more interesting in working with the wood than the glove).  Atkins took advantage of his home park as much as the departed Castilla, with an OPS 138 points better on Planet Coors than on the rest of the earth.  Still, there’s a lot of offensive potential there and he’s a good breakout candidate in 2006.

8th Place - C/1B Mike Jacobs and OF Ryan Langerhans

Mike Jacobs got less playing time than anyone other position player that got a vote, but made the most of his hundred at-bats, hitting 310/375/700 for the Mets with 11 dingers.  He’s still halfheartedly listed as a catcher, but he will be in the 1B mix in 2006.  Even with the lack of playing time, Jacobs out-VORPed a few other players that got votes in our balloting, including Willy Taveras, Ryan Langerhans, and Nick Swisher.

Langerhans may have done a poor job at creating natural insulin in the pancreas for the Braves, but along with Francoeur and Kelly Johnson, did a lot to end the run deficiency that Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan created on the team.  Langerhans hit 267/348/426 for the Braves with 8 home runs and decent defense at all 3 outfield positions.  It’s unclear where he will fit with the team in 2006 as the Braves have a bit of an OF glut.


RK     Player         PTS Bal   1 2 3
————————————————————————————————————————-
1     Howard, Ryan     63   17   8 7 2                      
————————————————————————————————————————-
2     Duke, Zach       43   15   4 6 5                      
3     Francouer, Jeff   36   14   4 3 7                      
4     Taveras, Willie   27   7   4 2 1                      
5     Church, Ryan     4   2     1 1                      
6     Qualls, Chad     3   1     1                        
7     Atkins, Garrett   2   2       2                      
8T     Jacobs, M       1   1       1                      
8T     Langerhans, Ryan   1   1       1                      
Ballots Cast: 20

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:27 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Spivey Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:10 PM (#1721518)
Dan, did you see that UZR has Taveras as +22 and the best centerfielder in the game. I know he doesn't take great routes, but he's very fast and seems to get a good jump on the ball.
   2. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1721531)
He does have a decent glove, though, and flashed the leather, if not a good arm, many times during the Astros run to the World Series.

I can tell you about his arm (small sample size alert) - earlier in the year, during a 3-game series against the Cubs, Taveras threw out one Cub runner at home from CF in each game.

And remember, these aren't your Wendell Kim's Cubs. I don't think any of them were Aramis Ramirez with two bad hamstrings coughing up blood trying to go second-to-home on a single.
   3. Spivey Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:19 PM (#1721537)
Taveras has an accurate arm, and while it will never be compared to the type of arm a RF has I think for a CF it's pretty good.
   4. Chris Dial Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:25 PM (#1721554)
I have Tavares right around average.
   5. 44magnum Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:40 PM (#1721582)
UCCF-same experience--I don't remember if he threw anyone out, but the 1st weekend of the season, I see this little dude playing CF against the Reds come up firing-making some completely improbable long throw at about 85 mph & on the fly. Took me (and I think the Reds)completely off guard.
   6. J.C. Bradbury Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:44 PM (#1721595)
Where do you get the 2005 UZR data?
   7. shoewizard Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:48 PM (#1721607)
I just want to publicly thank Levski for encouraging me to make sure I got Duke in the minor league portion of my leagues draft last year. He was quite a shot in the arm for my pitching staff in the second half, despite the time h missed, and I would not have won that league without him. All the pitching categories were EXTREMELY tight in that league. So thanks again Levski, good call.
   8. Mister High Standards Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:03 PM (#1721646)
As one of the BTF votes who voted for Slick Willy I would like to say I didn't think it was particullarly close. I thought his playing time, and his defense gave him the nod over a generally weak pool of candidates. While Howard, Francouer, and Duke were all very productive when they played they weren't didn't log much more than half time. While I think its a good bet that the other 3 will have better careers than Slick Willy, I don't think they had as valuable a contribution as rookies.

Seeing Lane, or Biggio in CF for the 'Stros is not an appealing thought.
   9. base ball chick Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:19 PM (#1721689)
willy throws out guys from shallow center

he misses the cutoff man a LOT

he very often takes bad routes to FB and has a hard time coming forward to get balls.

i agree with dial that he's average. having watched him for, what 90 games.

the thought of biggio in center is more than horror. he's got a terrible arm - almost as bad as baggy these days.

however, eric bruntlett looks EXCELLENT. but it won't happen. the Organization too in luuuvvv with willy's speed. even though he can't seem to steal any more
   10. SG Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1721737)
I voted 1) Duke 2) Howard 3) Francouer. Duke led all NL rookies in VORP. I think I had Tavares 4th, because his defense was so highly regarded although I did not have access to his UZR at the time of the vote. He's not a good offensive player though.
   11. DK near DC Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:47 PM (#1721769)
Wasn't Clint Barmes a rookie?
   12. SG Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:51 PM (#1721775)
Wasn't Clint Barmes a rookie?

Hmm, I'm not sure. He played briefly in 2003 and 2004, but his playing time appears low enough to qualify. I wouldn't have voted for him anyway due to his home/road splits.

Home: .332/.369/.508 .877
Away: .239/.286/.350 .635
   13. Sean McNally Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1721783)
My ballot matches the final voting exactly. Yay me!
   14. 3Com Park Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1721820)
the Organization too in luuuvvv with willy's speed. even though he can't seem to steal any more

What's up with him not stealing in the second half and postseason?
   15. DK near DC Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:11 PM (#1721831)
I wouldn't have voted for him anyway due to his home/road splits.


But was he on the ballot. He may not be top 3, but he deserves to be above other players on this list, like around 5th.
   16. DK near DC Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1721840)
Atkins took advantage of his home park as much as the departed Castilla, with an OPS 138 points better on Planet Coors than on the rest of the earth.

Home: .339/.395/.508 .903
Away: .238/.301/.347 .649

By my math, the is 254 points better..
   17. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: November 07, 2005 at 07:20 PM (#1722002)
heh... thanks, shoewiz. the way i look at it, "blind squirrel -> acorn" :)
   18. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:11 PM (#1722110)
Unlike my AL vote, I had all kinds of problems finding three guys that I wanted to vote for in the NL.

In my mind, 14 starts does not a rookie make. I hate Taveras. So, I went with the All-Ryan rookie team.

1) Ryan Howard
2) Ryan Church
3) Ryan Langerhans
   19. Sean McNally Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1722116)
BTF's voters accurately predicted Street and Howard's big wins. We also nailed Cano as the runner up in the AL and agreed generally with the writers on who the top four rooks in each league were.

We placed Iguchi higher than the writers did, who were surprisingly enamored with Jonny Gomes, and they placed Taveras higher than we did and Duke lower.
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 08, 2005 at 03:51 PM (#1723344)
The problem that we (and the *real* voters) had in the NL was that all of the top-performing rookies played less than a full season, and all of the rookies who played a full season performed at a relatively pedestrian level. It was exactly like the situation that NL ROY voters faced in 1959, when Willie McCovey won the award despite playing in only 52 games, partially because no full-season rookie had a good enough season to override McCovey's short-season heroics.

Like Mr. High Standards, I prefer full-season performance over short-season heroics, but I just couldn't justify putting Taveras or Atkins at the top of the ballot when Howard and Duke did so well in their shorter periods of time; 81 games of .924 OPS and 14 starts of 1.81 ERA was too good to ignore. Francoeur really only had a good month (granting that it was a very good month) and was relatively ordinary from mid-August on, so it was easier to exclude him from the conversation. I would not be at all surprised if he wound up with the best career of all of the NL rookies, though.

-- MWE
   21. Russ Posted: November 08, 2005 at 11:17 PM (#1724324)
I would not be at all surprised if he wound up with the best career of all of the NL rookies, though.


Mike E is a traitor. Zach Duke for President!

;-)
   22. Joe Dimino Posted: November 09, 2005 at 07:11 AM (#1724692)
"Like Mr. High Standards, I prefer full-season performance over short-season heroics, but I just couldn't justify putting Taveras or Atkins at the top of the ballot when Howard and Duke did so well in their shorter periods of time; 81 games of .924 OPS and 14 starts of 1.81 ERA was too good to ignore."

I'm the opposite of Mr. High. For Rookie of the Year, if one player performs at a very high level in limited but reasonable playing time (e.g. - half season), I'm voting for him over an okay player that played every day. Duke was lights out this year, 14 starts is nearly half a season, relatively speaking it's about the same amount of PT that Howard and Francouer had. I didn't think this was a tough choice at all.
   23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 09, 2005 at 08:50 PM (#1725370)
Like Mr. High Standards, I prefer full-season performance over short-season heroics, but I just couldn't justify putting Taveras or Atkins at the top of the ballot when Howard and Duke did so well in their shorter periods of time; 81 games of .924 OPS and 14 starts of 1.81 ERA was too good to ignore. Francoeur really only had a good month (granting that it was a very good month) and was relatively ordinary from mid-August on, so it was easier to exclude him from the conversation. I would not be at all surprised if he wound up with the best career of all of the NL rookies, though.

I'm with Mike here, although my ballot would have had Francoeur in the first position (*barely*) over Howard and Duke, his glovework pushing him over the top.
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2005 at 11:34 PM (#1725663)
Mike E is a traitor. Zach Duke for President!

I understand the sentiment, but I'm always reluctant to project long careers for young pitchers because of the injury risk.

Zach Duke's rookie season isn't a lot different from that of another young lefty, Whitey Ford (although Duke's overall totals are better across the board - fewer walks, higher K/9, lower HR rate). Whitey was fortunate in that (a) he went into the service for the next two years, and (b) Casey Stengel managed him very carefully when he came back (which Ford hated, but OTOH he didn't have any real injury problems until late in his career). Pittsburgh will be tempted to showcase Duke as an ace; if they can resist that temptation over the next couple of years Duke could wind up with a Ford-like career.

-- MWE

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