Playoff Preview - National League Championship Series
What is more likely to bring about the end of the world? A championship by the Cubs or Jeff Loria?
Season series:
Cubs, 4-2. The games were played around the All-Star break, before the Cubs
acquired a large chunk of their current offense from Pittsburgh. The Marlins
weren’t much different then than they are now, adding only Jeff Conine to the
mix since the break while moving Ugueth Urbina to the closer spot and Braden
Looper back into a setup role.
To some extent, these teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams have
four good-to-very-good starters, offenses that rely heavily on a few key
players, and bullpens that have had their ups-and-downs.
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Pitching:
Game 1
Starter G GS W-L ERA
J. Beckett (R) 24 23 9-8 3.04
M. Prior (R) 30 30 18-6 2.43
Game 2
Starter G GS W-L ERA
B. Penny (R) 32 32 14-10 4.13
C. Zambrano (R) 32 32 13-11 3.11
Game 3
Starter G GS W-L ERA
K. Wood (R) 32 32 14-11 3.20
M. Redman (L) 29 29 14-9 3.59
Game 4
Starter G GS W-L ERA
M. Clement (R) 32 32 14-12 4.11
D. Willis (L) 27 27 14-6 3.30
I think that Prior will start games 1 and 5 so that he could be available for
a possible Game 7 in relief. However, Zambrano and Prior could flip-flop.
The starters match up pretty well, in my opinion. Prior/Beckett should rival
Prior/Maddux for drama and tension, and Mark Redman should be able to handle the
Wood matchup. Redman shut out the Cubs in the first game after the All-Star
break, although as I noted above the Cubs didn’t have Lofton and Ramirez then.
Penny was also outstanding in his lone start against the Cubs, but was bested 1
0 by Wood. Willis had one good start and one poor outing (6 ER in 2 innings),
and Beckett was hit pretty hard in his lone effort. For the Cubs, Zambrano
pitched very well against the Marlins, as did Clement, and of course Wood. Prior
didn’t face the Fish. The possible concern here - and it should be a very real
concern for Cub fans - is that Prior and Wood have thrown a *lot* of innings and
pitches this year, and there’s always the possibility that the load will catch
up to them. I don’t think that will happen, but it’s always in the
background.
The Cubs have an advantage in the bullpen. The Marlins’ middle relief is
unsettled behind Urbina, whereas the Cubs have been getting steady work from
Farnsworth and Remlinger. Urbina has the edge in closing experience over
Borowski, but Borowski has acquitted himself nicely so far in the
postseason.
Florida’s lineup:
Pierre, CF
Castillo, 2B
Rodriguez, C
Lee, 1B
Cabrera, 3B
Encarnacion, RF
Conine, LF
A. Gonzalez, SS
pitcher
When Pierre and Castillo are getting on base, this team can score runs in
bunches. When they aren’t, the Marlins find it difficult to manufacture runs.
With All-Star 3B Mike Lowell still not 100% and unlikely to play more than a
cameo role, there’s no consistent power threat in the lineup. Cabrera responded
nicely to sitting in favor of Lowell in Game 3 of the NLDS, with four hits in
the finale. I like his future, but he’s still got a tendency to hack too much in
the present, and I think that Wood and Prior will exploit that tendency. The
Fish therefore have to get more from Lee and Encarnacion (6-31, 1 double, 1 HR,
3 RBI in the NLDS). Pudge can’t do everything, although he came pretty darned
close to it in Game 4 of the NLDS.
Chicago’s lineup:
Lofton, CF
Grudzielanek, 2B
Sosa, RF
Alou, LF
Ramirez, 3B
Karros/Simon, 1B
AS Gonzalez, SS
Miller/Bako, C
pitcher
The Cubs should send at least a half-postseason share to Dave Littlefield for
donating Lofton, Ramirez, and Simon at the cost of very little (Bobby Hill). I
seriously doubt that the Cubs would have made the postseason without them; they
added just enough offense to supplement Sammy and Moises. It’s still not a great
offense. There aren’t enough people in it who do a good job of getting on base,
although Lofton posted a .381 OBP after coming over to the Cubs. Sammy didn’t
have a good series against the Braves, but Alou more than made up for it, and
(as they have pretty much all year) the Cubs got timely hits from the lesser
players like Karros and Gonzalez when they needed them in the NLDS. I don’t
think the Cubs should be counting on that happening again, which means that
Sammy needs to kick it into gear. The Marlins managed to neutralize Bonds, and
while the Cubs’ offense isn’t as dependent on Sosa as the Giants are on Barry,
they don’t have the firepower to afford a long-term slump from him.
Benches:
Ecch. Aside from Lowell, neither team has much offensive help on the
bench.
Managers:
Both Jack McKeon and Dusty Baker get the most out of their teams. McKeon’s
probably a better tactical manager, but not enough so that it’s likely to make
much difference. Baker does some things that statheads don’t like, but he
doesn’t usually manage his teams out of games.
Keys:
The Marlins have a team of contact hitters, who put the ball in play and who
stretch the defense once it’s in play. Florida’s hitters fanned just 978 times
this season, the third fewest in the league behind Atlanta and St. Louis. If the
Marlins put the ball in play consistently against Wood, Prior, et. al., they
will score runs. They did that very well against San Francisco.
The Cubs need to keep Pierre and Castillo off base. Miller and Bako did a
pretty good job in keeping the running game under control this year, throwing
out 40 of 109 basestealers during the year, and maintaining or bettering that
level of success is essential if Chicago is to advance.
Outlook:
The Marlins have never lost a postseason series. Florida’s AA team is my
hometown team, as most of my regular readers know. I’ll be rooting for the
Marlins. But I think the Cubs have slightly more depth on offense. I also think
the Cubs’ pitching, especially the late-game relief, is better. And I think the
Cubs are more likely to contain the Marlins’ strengths and cover their own
weaknesses than are the Fish.
It should be a great series, and while it pains me to say it, I think it will
be
Cubs in 7.
