What’s in the Cards for Rolen?

Did Scott Rolen do the Phillies a favor when he turned down their $140 million offer?

The Phillies finally ended the suspense by shipping hot commodity Scott Rolen   on last Monday. Phillies GM Ed Wade really had no choice but to trade Rolen,   as he became a free agent after the season and had already refused to resign   with Philadelphia. With the draft pick compensation rule potentially changing,   Wade had to get something for Rolen while he still had the opportunity. And   Wade didn’t do too badly. He snagged a promising young starter (Bud Smith),   a serviceable utility man (Placido Polanco), and a solid middle reliever (Mike   Timlin).

As for Rolen, he makes the Cardinals a formidable playoff opponent. The trade   also gives the Cardinals a good shot at signing Rolen to a long term contract.   Rolen makes $ 8.6 million dollars this year, and he’s due for a nice raise.   At 27 and coming off his first All-Star appearance, Rolen seems an ideal player   to lock up to a long term contract, as the Phillies tried to do by offering   him a 140 million dollars over ten years. But is Rolen really worth signing   long term?

Rolen is a difficult player to assess because his skills are diverse and because   there’s always been a level of hype surrounding him, due to his early success   in the league. Offensively, Rolen’s been a pretty good hitter, but not a great   one, as his OPS numbers support.

Year           OPS
'96           .722
'97           .846
'98           .923
'99           .893
'00           .921
'01           .876
'02 (to date) .830
Career        .877

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

As you can see, Rolen’s OPS has actually digressed over the past two years,   and he’s four years removed from his best season with the bat. Only 27, Rolen   could still become an offensive stalwart; many players have peaked later. However,   Rolen hasn’t shown the type of upward progression one sees in the careers of   hitters like Sammy Sosa and Jason Giambi. He’s basically established the offensive   level he plays at. Rolen is a good offensive player, he hits about 25-30 homers   a year, he walks enough to offset the fact that he’s not a contact hitter, and   he can run a little. But, he’s not an elite hitter who can carry a slumping   offense for weeks at a time, and there’s little evidence to suggest he’ll become   one.

Therefore, much of Rolen’s value must be placed on his defensive abilities.   And Rolen is a hell of a defender. While defensive statistics can be misleading,   Rolen routinely pumps out excellent numbers with the glove, year after year.   He’s won three gold gloves, and virtually everyone in baseball, from SABR-abhorring   managers to Baseball Prospectus,   considers Rolen a great defensive player. Rolen’s outstanding glove elevates   him above the rest of the "pretty good" hitters in the game, and ensures   he’ll command a long, expensive contract this offseason. However, I’m not sure   he’s worth it.

  The player Rolen reminds me of most is Ken Caminiti. Caminiti was another hard-nosed   Gold Glover who, like Rolen, played his early years on turf and developed a   reputation for sacrificing his body to stop balls. In 1998, at the age of 35   (his 12th year as a starter), Caminiti suddenly lost his ability to play third   base. His range factor, which had been 2.78, 2.85 and 2.86 over the previous   three years, plummeted to a meager 2.25. This staggering one year drop of .61   points can’t be explained by the slight adjustments the Padres made to their   pitching staff, Caminiti just lost it. This season wasn’t a fluke, Caminiti   never played the position regularly again.

  Caminiti’s sudden deterioration isn’t a special case, it’s a trend that follows   third basemen throughout history. This table below charts the careers of some   of the greatest third basemen ever, all of whom possessed similar defensive   skills to Rolen and all of whom experienced precipitous declines in their ability   to play third.

Player           ST   LR   Shelf Life
------------------------------------
Ken Caminiti     24   35   12 years
Ron Santo        21   33   13 years
Darrell Evans    25   33    9 years
Eddie Mathews    20   34   15 years
Matt Williams    24   33   10 years
Ken Boyer        24   35   12 years
Clete Boyer      23   33   11 years
George Brett     21   33   13 years
Average          23   34   12 years

ST = Age of player in first season as a starter
LR = Age of player in last he played regularly

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

  After their "last season at third" all of these players either split   time between two positions or played third sparsely (and poorly). Their offensive   statistics show a sharp decline as well. Except for Clete Boyer (who was never   really a good hitter), all of the above were very good offensive players the   year preceding their "last season at third." Of the eight listed above,   only Evans and Brett retained their hitting skills after that year. The rest   of them went from "very good" to "useless" over a two year   span. These guys weren’t chumps either, they’re among the best (and most durable)   third basemen in history. That’s how fast it can happen when you play a position   that debilitates the body.

  Third basemen, to borrow a phrase from Neil Young, burn out rather than fade   away. Like catchers, they don’t rescind from their peak gracefully and productively.   They instead fall off a cliff into obscurity. In fact, the reason why so few   third basemen are in the Hall of Fame is that the position wipes them out in   their thirties, where most players pad their career stats to impress the voters.  

  This isn’t to say that all third-basemen break down early. Brooks Robinson and   Mike Schmidt defied convention with their longevity at the position. Other players,   like Graig Nettles and Wade Boggs, reduced their workload at third after about   10 years to extend their careers. However, Rolen’s primary value is through   his glove, not his bat. Even if Rolen can still hit after his defense falters,   he wouldn’t be nearly as valuable a player if moved from third, especially at   the salary he’s going to command. If Rolen can’t play third regularly, he loses   much of his value as a ballplayer.

  Rolen’s great defense may be the very factor which shortens his career. I think   there’s a good chance that Rolen will break down even sooner than any of the   aforementioned players. At twenty-seven, he’s already missed significant time   in two seasons to injuries. He’s played the past six and a half years on an   unforgiving turf. His aggressive style of defensive punishes his body. He’s   got a bad back. And as much as his drooping offense over the past two years   might reflect his unhappiness in Philadelphia, it may also signal the beginning   of his decline. Rolen’s shelf life as a third baseman may be very short.

  This is Rolen’s sixth season as a starter, and in another six he may have completely   lost his ability to play baseball. The Cardinals should remember this when attempting   to resign him. The best thing that ever happened to the Phillies may turn out   to be Rolen’s refusal of their ten year offer.