How to Bet on MLB
The MLB season just ended with the Philadelphia Phillies beating the Tampa Bay Rays in
five games in the World Series. For Phillies fans, it was a dream come true.
But for some baseball bettors, things didn’t turn out the way they imagined.
We may forget but the Tampa Bay Rays were actually favored to beat the Phillies
in Las Vegas when the World Series started.
This was true even though the Phillies appeared to have the right blend of good pitching
and good hitting to get them the trophy. I, for one, never even considered
placing a wager on the Tampa Bay Rays. To me, the Phillies winning the series
was a foregone conclusion.
Why? Well, that’s the nature of baseball betting. Unlike almost every other organized sport in the United States, baseball is a game of simplicity. Part of that simplicity is understanding baseball cycles. Teams go up and teams go down. There is no other sport, excluding horse racing, where this future’s trading type affect is so readily obvious.
Baseball betting is most like future’s trading in the sense that future’s traders on
Wall Street are just like baseball bettors. In future’s trading, the trader
looks to numerous factors regarding the commodity he wishes to trade futures
on. For instance, if he wants to trade futures on coffee, he takes a look at
numerous factors involving the coffee industry - - weather, political future
of the various countries, trade pacts, etc.
When a
bettor takes a look at a game, or a series of games, he takes a look at the
relevant factors involving the teams that make up that game. Some of these
factors for baseball are: pitching, hitting, injuries, management, ownership,
mental toughness, etc. He also tries to calculate the “hot” factor of a team.
The Phillies were definitely hot going into this year’s World Series.
The best
example to understand how to bet on baseball is to look at the single game
strategy. Although there is a multiple game strategy involved in betting, it’s
convoluted and would take a very long time to explain.
So, let’s stick with the single game strategy for now.
Single Baseball Bets - - Single Games
Most sportsbooks, besides offering various prop bets which we won’t discuss in this
article, offer three bets. The first is what’s called the run line. We’ll get
back to that in a moment. The second is called the money line. The third is
called the over/under.
Let’s take
a look at the money line wager first. Here’s a typical money line baseball
wager that sportsbooks offer to bettors.
BostonRed Sox - 110
New York Yankees - 125
The way to read this is, “The Boston Red Sox are visiting the New York Yankees. The Boston Red Sox are – 110 straight-up to beat the New York Yankees. The New York Yankees are – 125 straight-up to beat the Boston Red Sox.”
I know that the Boston Red Sox are visiting the New York Yankees because the Yankees are
the “bottom” team. This is true for not only sportsbooks but also for the
scores you see on various websites and on your television. The home team is
always listed second.
Now, what exactly does – 110 and – 125 mean? The money line is always expressed in terms
of a $100 dollar unit. You’re going to hear the word unit quite a bit if you
start betting on baseball. A unit is simply the amount of money that a gambler
is willing to put up on each single bet. For instance, if my unit was $100 and
I put 2 units on the Red Sox, I would be putting $200 on the Red Sox. So, in
terms of – 110 it means this, a gambler would have to put up $110 dollars to
make a $100 profit on the Red Sox in this game. A gambler would have to put up
$125 dollars to make $100 profit.
Of course, baseball bettors still need to look at each team regarding their chances of
winning this game.
Over/under betting is quite simple. The concept is this: what is the total that both
teams combined will score in this game. In other words how many runs will the
Red Sox and Yankees together score? Usually, in a game like the Red Sox and
Yankees the over/under will be between 9 to 10 ½ runs. If you believe that the
two teams together will score less than 10 ½ runs, if that’s the total, then
you want to bet the under. If you believe that the two teams together will
score more than 10 ½ runs than you want to bet the over. The ½ is a key factor
in this. It means that the total can’t land exactly on the number. Why is
this important? Sportsbooks always want one side to win and the other to
lose. The sportsbook will have to give everybody their money back, minus the
juice (that’s the “10” in football betting) if, for instance, the total was 10
and the total runs scored landed exactly on 10. That is why bettors see a lot
of wagers instilled with a ½ point. It ensures that one side wins and one side
loses.
The run line is a strange bet. Most of the time it has to do with the starting
pitchers on each team. Betting the run line involves deciding which pitcher
will perform the best on that day for at least five innings. A pitcher has to
last for five innings for “action” on a run line bet. Here’s an example of
what a run line bet looks like:
Boston Red Sox
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 1 ½ - 120
New York Yankees
Andy Petite + 1 ½ - 145
The way to read this bet is, “Matsuzaka is – 1 ½ runs at minus 120 to beat Andy Petite at
+ 1 ½ runs minus 145.”
The way this works is this - - if you like Dice-K in this match-up then you are betting
that he will be ahead of Andy Petite and the New York Yankees by at least 2
runs at the end of five innings. You are giving up 1 ½ runs to Petite and the
Yankees. You are also putting up $120 to win $100 profit.
If you like Andy Petite in this match-up, you are betting that he won’t be behind Dice-K
and the Yankees by more than a single run after the fifth inning. With Petite
you get a run and a half (hence the name “run line”). That wager will cost you
$145 to win $100 in profit.
Betting Strategy
It is important to realize that teams go through a 182 game regular season schedule.
During those 182 games, teams will be hot and teams won’t be hot. The key for
success is figuring out exactly when that hot streak is going to occur.
For instance, once the Milwaukee Brewers traded for C.C. Sabathia, they got hot.
Why? A lot of it had to do with confidence. C.C. brought a certain brand of
confidence to the team that ended up going through individual players. If it
sounds crazy, it sort of is, but it also makes total sense. Baseball is at its
core a psychological game. Although physical talent is important, mental
toughness is much more important.
Because of that, it’s a good sign to always look for starting pitchers that have that
mental toughness when making bets. For instance, in game six of this year’s
ALCS, the Boston Red Sox sent Josh Beckett to the mound. Even though Beckett
had a bad regular season, I knew that his mental toughness could carry him to a
victory in that game against the Tampa Bay Rays even though the Rays were at
home with one of their better pitchers, James Shields, on the mound.
Information is king when betting on baseball. Having a good understanding of which
pitchers do well under pressure situations is the biggest advantage that a
baseball bettor can give himself.
Good Luck!
Joe Gambler
Posted: December 01, 2008 at 09:24 PM |
124 comment(s)
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Any of you experts out there know when football odds began being expressed more in point spreads than as a money line? I know you can still get a money line now, but I'm talking about when even the newspapers expressed it that way. It had to go back at least 60-70 years, but a few of you guys seem so well versed on the general subject that I thought you might know the answer. I guess a simpler way of putting it would be: When did point spreads first gain popular acceptance for football (and basketball)?
LVHCM: I guess I consider a 'sharp' someone who has the bankroll and bets professionally as well. Even if I had the bankroll, I cannot imagine doing it professionally. It is much more fun to learn how to 'beat the system' then actually doing it for a living. I place occasional bets if I can find a rogue line that is off by enough that one could bet it without doing any analysis, but those types of bets, with reputable sportsbooks, is far and few between. I think I feel this way due to poker. I used to love playing online and reading the 2+2 books (i.e. Theory of Poker, Small Stakes Hold'em, Sklanksy, etc... Then I got rakeback (which even a break-even player can use to profit with), then poker tracker (maybe rakeback was first), ace HUD (don't know if still around), and went from playing one table, to buying a second monitor and playing up to 8 tables at a time. I went from having fun to one of the most boring jobs I ever had. Sure it beat going to an office every day and sitting at a desk doing the same thing over and over again, but other than making my own schedule (and girls thinking it was cool...) it was the same, if not worse than an office job (at least for me).
DE
In the Psychology of Baseball the author mentions studies where people don't perform as well and lose enjoyment once they do something for money or have to do something. I know I found it almost unbearable to play and I would dread having to play. It has been three years since I have even played one hand of poker. But, I still love discussing with my friends how they played a hand, theory, etc... I pretty much feel the same way about sports betting, with the exception that I never had the bankroll to do it professionally, and, even if I did, not living in Vegas, and knowing how boring it would get, prevent me from even attempting to do so.
I definitely need to digress soon, but I pretty much retract my original statement of half of BBTF members being able to beat the books. I believe they could, but I imagine a lot would feel like I did playing poker, and would quit after realizing it was boring as hell. Running simulations, programming, etc would be way more fulfilling.
Yes. The most common score differences are 3, 4 and 7. The most common spreads are 3 and 4 (and 3.5, I assume). I remember reading a book by the bookmaker at LV Hilton a long time ago; he said that there was usually a specific threshold of money, where if the book became unbalanced by that amount or more, the line would move half a point. He said that those thresholds were doubled when the spread was 3-4 points.
Also, are you sure that book wasn't by a bookmaker for Caesar's Palace?
I imagine those thresholds, particularly on the 3 are now larger than double than before online sports betting took off. Moving off of the 3 is a huge gamble for the books. Particularly since if they go to 3.5 the dog is going to get hammered, and they will just be moving back to 3. And moving the line to 2.5 sets up the first of two legs of a Wong teaser. Of course, I am sure people bet favs at 3.5 and take dogs at 2.5, which might offset this.
Yeah, I think you're right.
Also, are you sure that book wasn't by a bookmaker for Caesar's Palace?
Yes. It was Super Bookie by Art Manteris of the LV Hilton. Here's a review.
I finally cashed out during a particularly poor "I'm a student again" stretch, my account at $0 for the first time in years. When I thought about adding back, it was such a pain (I never deposited at Poker Stars after my original $30) that I gave up, and just played some play money games for a while. Then I stopped completely. I still enjoy talking theory, analyzing hands, just like baseclog (and I have all the same books, plus Caro) [speaking of, if anyone here wants a collection of basically every poker book you could possibly want, plus a ton more, all in PDFs, I could upload it to my UT Webspace]* and I still love playing against good players. It's the ####### nutballs that are all over everywhere that sap what little motivation I have very quickly. Now I can't even final table consistently in the WSOP: Tournament of Champions game I downloaded off PirateBay. Even in Tunica. That's mostly because the computer players (especially the name pros) are ####### literal whackjobs raising and calling with anything, and blinds go up every 9 hands, meaning you can't play how you should against whackjobs. And with everyone being a whackjob, one or two end up having four times your stack in under one spin around the table and then they really go nuts. Still, my game has slipped to the point I can't consistently cream that game even with the conditions totally adverse to my style and to any sort of consistent game plan. I have found myself playing it quite a bit, so maybe the bug is back a little, but without the ability to go to a card room or even underground club, meh.
(And apropos of Harold, I just got bounced from the $2000 No-Limit at the San Diego Rincon after a guy raised from gun the minimum, I pop to 6 BB all day on the button with KK, he calls, flop comes J82 rainbow, 4 turn, 6 river, me pounding the whole way, him just smooth calling, and he flips over 86o for a river 2-pair.)
Wok in the thread in 3, 2, 1....
Very aggressive players will make any game tougher and will cause huge swings in your bankroll. They are actually playing somewhat correctly though, but are just a bit loose. In a 6-max game the LAG will lose less money than a tight passive player. But, if you are tight aggressive you will still win money off the LAG. Playing against 'good players' will not net a win in the long run (you might even win over a very large sample of hands). The LAGs are just frustrating and the loose-passive players can be frustrating, but they are cash machines. They call you down, but when ahead they don't raise (which is great for you) and when behind, they pay you off. LPs are pretty much any poker player's dream.
I don't know what stage of the tournament you are in, but do you really want that guy to fold? You got unlucky. If you wanted him to fold then raise more preflop (Even if you don't want him to fold, he raised UTG, signifying a strong hand (usually), you might be able to get a very good, but not KK good hand, to call or reraise.). If he doesn't fold, then either get it all in on the flop or, if real early in the tourney, bet at least the pot (but, getting it all in here might still be better). Seriously, even on the flop, if you knew his cards you would have been thrilled. Obviously the guy was not a good player, as it doesn't appear he bet or raised you on the river. So, theoretically you were getting +EV the entire hand. He called all of your bets with the worst of it and never raised/bet when ahead.
I don't get this. Inside joke?
Are you in San Diego?
Oh, sure. These players (and remember, it's players controlled by the computer) are just weird, though. Very, very, very loose preflop, very aggressive for the first raise preflop, and then they turn into very passive, "tight calling stations", if such a thing can exist. They dump way too many hands when they're pot committed and should call with anything, and they call with way too many hands when they literally have nothing. Not just Ace high nothing, I'm talking like jack high nothing. It took a while, but I finally figured their game out. The key is ignoring the first preflop raise to 3x BB. Anyone at the table will make the first raise from any position with any two cards with any number of people limping (or everyone folding) in front of them. Doesn't matter. I just treat every hand like the blinds are triple what they actually are.
Playing against 'good players' will not net a win in the long run (you might even win over a very large sample of hands).
Sure, and of course I've yet to run across a decent poker AI. They all call way too much, they very rarely bluff twice in the same hand (though this game at least does that more, I even had a computer player fire three bullets at me on a bluff; too bad for him I had the rock nuts), they don't differentiate enough between bet sizes. If the AI says "call", it'll call your bet whether it's $20 into a $1000 pot or $800 into the same pot.
I don't know what stage of the tournament you are in, but do you really want that guy to fold?
Of course not. I want him making those calls every single time. I'd loan him the money to make those calls.
I don't get this. Inside joke?
Chris Wok is another poster here, one who often makes jokes about Asian penises, so "Wong teaser" ought to make him pop up at some point.
Are you in San Diego?
Nope, Austin. Harold is in SD, which is why it was apropos at that very moment that I was bouncing out of the SD tournament in the game.
Wok in the thread in 3, 2, 1....
Yeah, 2.5 is a little generous when counting the legs of a Wong teaser, isn't it?
Nope, Austin. Harold is in SD, which is why it was apropos at that very moment that I was bouncing out of the SD tournament in the game.
How is it an SD tournament? I know Rincon is a casino around here. I'm just confused as to what it means here. Do casinos sponsor tourneys on the on-line poker sites or something?
If the line opened at 3 and you could have bought it up to 3.5 would that be better? I honestly don't know. I also don't know/can't remember if +3.5 -130 and -2.5 -110 (or less than -110) is profitable/better either.
As far as 2.5, you would cross the 3 and 7. Quite a few online books had even money two team teasers and some of those had a push count as a tie (wouldn't matter on this leg of teaser but could on the other leg) and not a loss (do people really bet two team teasers at -110 with a push counting as a los?). I imagine at even money you are still getting value on the 2.5 to 8.5. You need a 71% chance (approx) on each leg to do a bit better than break even and 1.5 to 2.5 point dogs do considerably better than that (wow, I cannot believe I cannot remember the exact percentage, but isn't it 79%? same with 8.5 to 7.5 down to 2.5 to 1.5?).
Jeff: Yeah, I think I was confused as well about it being a game. At first I thought, "wait, isn't he in austin (I remembered Austin because I was going to ask you about a PL game I used to play in when I lived there.)?" Then I thought "why is he playing at rincon?" When I would go play live I rarely went there as the games weren't that good. Of course, I used to drive to Sycuan which the drive there, the (at best) 25 hands an hour, and rake in the games probably made buying lottery tickets higher ev. What part of Austin are you in?
Agree and agree.
But I see the responses as a reflection of our community. On the whole I'm pretty happy with the way things have played out. I'd be totally happy if there was a "paid programming" disclaimer but aside from that:
A fair amount of specific, informative and correct criticisms. Nice job guys.
Yes, I'm serious.
I Am So Starving
My finding from playing roto baseball is that hot streaks may be largely random. A roto team with players assembled from random teams can get every bit as hot or cold as an actual team. My better than average 2008 team fell out of contention in May when about a half dozen starting pitchers from different teams fell apart. The pitching stabilized later without the benefit of a new pitching coach.
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