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— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Sunday, January 29, 2006
JoelW: Predicting UZR
Primate JoelW Certified Red Sox Optimist has been looking at various open-source defensive methods to see how they can be combined to predict how a given player will rank in UZR. He writes:
Below is the formula and the predicted ratings I have for SS and 2b.
Player UZR Predicted UZR Ellis 15 13.89 Castillo 5 5.82 Counsell 26 26.56 Loretta -9 -9.29 Hudson 12 11.53 Soriano -20 -19.84 Young -21 -22.07 Vizquel 5 8.47 Everett 21 20.288 Reyes -11 -10.98 Jeter -14 -13.142 Tejada 12 12.956 Cabrera 14 10.426
That equation is complicated, but it would make some sense: Pinto and Dial pick up on things, but overstate the effects of certain skills relative to UZR The MSE with those numbers was something like 2.5 which I thought was fantastic.
Joel has been bringing this up on several of the PMR threads, and rather than having the discussion spread out over those threads I thought it would make sense to set up a single discussion thread.
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