Predicting the 2007 Playoffs
Back in May 2004, Vinay Kumar published an article at The Hardball Times web site “So Billy, What Does Work in the Playoffs?” about how regular season statistics for a team could forecast its chances of success in the postseason. Last season, with my old hometown team the Tigers in the playoffs, I updated Vinay’s discoveries, and kept going right through to the World Series.
Given the chance to play prognosticator for 2007, I’ve dusted off the old spreadsheet and checked how this year’s playoff teams might be likely to fare.
The Categories
Vinay used 30 categories in his original research. But rather than using the data straight up, he used minimum splits between two teams in order to eliminate
about half of the results, to ensure that the data only reflected when a team had distinct advantage over its opponent. I’ve calculated a winning percentage
for each category, first with Vinay’s original research, and then incorporating the subsequent playoff results.
Team totals: Vinay’s 2003 research adding 2004-6
Won-lost record (+5 wins) .563 .581
Runs Scored/Runs Allowed (+0.1) .516 .537
Batting records:
Runs scored total .387 .415
Batting average .455 .447
On-base percentage .455 .452
Slugging percentage .400 .459
Doubles .394 .435
Triples .515 .442
Home runs .382 .476
Batter walks .500 .512
Batter strikeouts (fewer) .688 .587
Stolen bases .581 .512
Stolen base attempts (more) .581 .545
Net stolen bases .429 .378
Stolen base percentage .389 .306
Caught stealing (fewer) .364 .378
Pitching records:
Runs allowed .647 .605
ERA .606 .565
Pitchers strikeouts .581 .568
Pitchers walks (fewer) .469 .541
Hits allowed (fewer) .727 .732
Home runs allowed (fewer) .645 .588
Complete games .611 .628
Pitchers shutouts .667 .636
Saves .455 .457
Saves by team leader .545 .558
Bullpen ERA .471 .500
Fielding records:
Errors committed (fewer) .706 .643
Defensive efficiency .594 .699
Fielding double plays .455 .489
As one can see, things haven’t quite stayed the same. Pitching and speed categories have lost ground, whereas power and fielding categories have gained. The
biggest improvement has come in the effect of defensive efficiency, the biggest loss to batter strikeouts.
I like to divide the categories into strong and weak ones, depending on whether teams holding the advantage have won more than half the series.
Here are the strong categories:
Hits allowed
Defensive efficiency
Errors committed (fewer)
Pitchers’ shutouts
Complete Games
Runs allowed
Home runs allowed (fewer)
Batter strikeouts (fewer)
Won-lost record
Pitcher strikeouts
ERA
Saves by team leader
Stolen base attempts
Pitcher walks (fewer)
Runs Scored/Runs allowed
Let’s carry this information forward and profile the 2007 Divisional Series.
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland
New York’s powerful offense gives them a clear advantage in overall totals, leading in ten categories compared with Cleveland’s. However, Cleveland have a
clear advantage in the strong categories, five to one. Nor is this the first time the Bronx Bombers have relied on dominance in the weak categories to carry
them through. The result has been two first-round exits, and the catastrophe of 2004. I’d expect more of the same, to be honest.
Yankees’ advantages
Runs Scored
Batting Average
On-Base Percentage
Slugging Percentage
Doubles
Triples
Batter strikeouts
Stolen bases
Stolen base percentage
Cleveland advantages
Runs allowed
ERA
Pitcher walks
Complete games
Shutouts
Saves
Saves by team leader
Bullpen ERA
PREDICTOR PICK: CLEVELAND.
Cover my a**e comment: The Yankees beat a similarly advantaged Twins’ team in 2004.
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona
The Diamondbacks are the sabermetric enigma for 2007. Are they good enough to beat the Cubs? Lacking much in the way of offense, and with some reliance on
team speed, one would be inclined to suspect the worst. The Cubs, meanwhile, are not an offensive powerhouse either, but have some gap power as opposed to
home run clout, which I find a little surprising in the friendly confines. Arizona has the overall lead, ten to eight, but in the strong categories it’s a
dead heat at five apiece. However, the Cubs have the advantage in the top two categories of Hits allowed and Defensive efficiency.
Cubs’ advantages
Runs scored/runs allowed
Batting average
On-base percentage
Doubles
Batter strikeouts
Pitcher strikeouts
Hits allowed
Defensive efficiency
Arizona advantages
Win-Loss record
Triples
Net stolen bases
Stolen-base percentage
Complete games
Shutouts
Saves
Saves by team leader
Errors
Double plays
PREDICTOR PICK: CHICAGO CUBS
Cover my a**e comment: You could toss a coin for this series. It’s one of the most evenly balanced I’ve seen.
Boston vs Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Boston’s dominance of this series is remarkable in itself. It has the advantage in fourteen categroies, compared to the Angels’ advantage in but three. Not
only that, but it controls the top three of Hits allowed, Defensive efficiency and Errors.
Boston advantages
Runs scored/runs allowed
On-base percentage
Slugging percentage
Doubles
Triples
Home Runs
Batter walks
Stolen base percentage
Caught stealing
Runs allowed
Hits allowed
Pitcher shutouts
Bullpen ERA
Errors
Defensive efficiency
Angels’ advantages
Batter strike outs
Stolen bases
Stolen base attempts
PREDICTOR PICK: BOSTON RED SOX
Cover my a**e comment: Upsets happen.
Philadelphia vs. Colorado
The battle of the batters’ ballparks throws up the sweetest of ironies. The representative from Coors Field, legendary for helping the hitter, finds itself
on top by eleven categories to eight thanks to its superior pitching. However, looking at the strong categories suggests that this series could be quite
one-sided.
Philadelphia advantages
Doubles
Triples
Home Runs
Batter Walks
Stolen bases
Stolen base percentage
Caught stealing
Pitcher strikeouts
Colorado advantages
Batter strike outs
Runs allowed
ERA
Pitcher walks
Hits allowed
Home runs allowed
Pitcher shutouts
Bullpen ERA
Errors
Defensive efficiency
Double plays
PREDICTOR PICK: COLORADO ROCKIES
Cover my a**e comment: Philadelphia’s home field advantage might help them, because they’ve taken more advantages of their home park’s tendencies during the
regular season.
Peering Further Ahead
On paper, no-one is going to stop the Red Sox. They roll over the Indians almost as easily as they outclass the Angels. The Yankees haven’t got the pitching
while the Red Sox have almost as good an offense.
The National League is a lot more tricky. If the Padres had made the playoffs, then I think the Padres would have looked like the team to beat the
Diamondbacks. However, if the Cubs go through, I don’t know that either of the remaining NL West teams could stop them.
A Red Sox vs. Cubs series – a portent of the End of Time and the Last Things?
fra paolo
Posted: October 02, 2007 at 07:21 PM |
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1. Mister High Standards Posted: October 02, 2007 at 07:45 PM (#2556538)Ah, the Red Sox just won one 3 years ago, no portent there. I'm rooting for Cubs-Indians, longest World Championship drought in each league now. My dad was 13 when his hometown Indians last won the World Series. His dad was 10 when the Cubs did.
Their research should be good news to any Red Sox fans out there on the blogosophere.
The section I'm referring to is a brief essay right after their piece on the 1984 AL West pennant race.
That may be the most inaccurate description of Shredder since the last time someone said he was cool.
Angels
Indians
Cubs
Phillies
The coin thinks the Angels will beat the Cubs in the World Series.
Maybe these SABR types are onto something.
I thought the Angels were no match for the Red Sox back in 2004, too. Was I a "whiny little ########" then, too? If there's been anyone who's changed around here, it's you, Seitz. You call names, you hide behind your smirking one-liners, but you don't have a thing to add to any analysis of the Angels.
You haven't been reading him lately, then.
Cubs vs Dbacks: Cubs in 4.
Phillies vs Rockies: Phillies in 5
Yankees vs Indians: Yankees in 4
Red Sox vs Angels: Angels in 4
Cubs vs Phillies: Cubs in 6
Angels vs Yankees: Angels in 5
Angels vs Cubs: Cubs in 7
And analysis? You mean reproducing other peoples' posts and saying "I agree". That's pretty impressive. Though I noticed things in Blackhawk's post that you would never write anymore, such as:andAnd I'm still waiting for his post where he whines about Jered Weaver throwing too many pitches over six shutout innings, and offers the wonderfully generous compliment "I won't say he failed to do his job".
And really, when it comes to analysis, this was quite impressive:Yes, as that guy who won't pitch in the post-season, and will lucky to even be on the roster showed, the Angel players who won't be in the playoffs aren't that great. That's quite a keen insight you have. Or how about this beauty from June 28th:For those that didn't quite get that, the offense, which stinks, has been good enough to make up for some really awful pitching. Remember, this is the really crappy offense that finished fourth in the AL.
Why bother showing up, indeed. There's plenty of us who wish you wouldn't.
Hunter green, right
Hunter green, left
Yanks-Indians: Good competititive series. Jacobs Field serves excellent brownies, made from my husband's secret recipe.
Red Sox-Angels: This could go either way. I have lots of friends in both camps, but Bill Buckner and Donnie Moore* favor Obama.
Cubs-Diamondbacks: I grew up as a Cubs and Yankees fan, but you can't overlook the beauty of the Grand Canyon.
Rockies-Phillies: I firmly believe in a woman's right to choose between these two historic teams, and if you don't like it, I'll think about it.
EDIT: I have just been informed that Donnie Moore has passed away. I regret this mistake on the part of someone else, and send my condolences to his widow.
EDIT: Never mind.
Except from you, Seitz. Except from you.
Cover my a**e comment: You could toss a coin for this series. It’s one of the most evenly balanced I’ve seen.
If I had been betting on this, I'd have gone for four triples and a quadruple (ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD and ABCD). So I'd have lost four bets and won one, but I figure I'd have won more that way than by betting on each series individually. I didn't check the odds beforehand.
So, fra, from your comments, it looks like you're picking the Red Sox to go all the way. Who are you tipping to meet them in the World Series?
Straight from my arse hairs prediction:
Cubs vs Dbacks: Cubs in 4.
Phillies vs Rockies: Phillies in 5
Yankees vs Indians: Yankees in 4
Red Sox vs Angels: Angels in 4
Now there's a swing and a miss!
I've updated all the data, and compared the Championshp Series' contenders.
First, though, I'd like to say that the 2007 Divisional Series in all cases showed that having an advantage in the strong categories is more important than a lead in all categories. The Yankees were just ahead of the Indians overall, ten to seven, but lagged in the strong categories, three to five. The Cubs and Diamondbacks were level in the strong categories with five each, but the Diamondbacks had the lead overall, ten to eight.
So, with that to inform us, let's look at each series.
<u>Boston vs Cleveland</u>
Boston is the clear leader in both the strong and the overall categories. They have five strong to the Indians' two, and a big fifteen to three lead overall. (Bold = strong)
BOSTON
Runs scored/runs allowed ratio
Batting average
On-base percentage
Doubles
Triples
Batter walks
Batter strikeouts
Net stolen bases
Stolen base percentage
Fewer caught stealing
Pitcher strikeouts
Hits allowed
Shutouts
Bullpen ERA
Defensive efficiency
CLEVELAND
Pitcher walks
Complete games
Double plays
<u>Arizona vs Colorado</u>
These two teams are flat out even with eight apiece overall, but Arizona has a significant lead in the strong categories, four to two.
ARIZONA
Triples
Net stolen bases
Stolen base percentage
Pitcher strikeouts
Complete games
Shutouts
Saves
Saves by team leader
COLORADO
Runs scored/runs allowed ratio
Runs scored
Batting average
On-base percentage
Doubles
Batter walks
Fielder errors
Double plays
So it looks like the better bet is on a Boston vs Arizona World Series.
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