BBTF's Primate Studies Discussion :: Win Values: A New Method to Evaluate Starting Pitchers

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Monday, August 19, 2002

Win Values: A New Method to Evaluate Starting Pitchers - Part 8

Top Stars

Part 1: Introduction
Part 2: Conceptual Framework
Part 3: High-Level Results
Part 4: Formulas
Part 5: Empirical Data for AL 2000
Part 6: Example: David Wells in AL 2000
Part 7: Yearly Results for 1978-2001
Part 8: Top Stars
Part 9: Concluding Remarks

Top Stars

In this section I will present the season-by-season Win Values for several of the top starting pitchers of the 1978-2001 era.? In all cases, their entire careers to date will be presented.[1]

Along with Win Values, I will report the pitcher?s W-L, ERA+, and WAA figures.? We will then be able to see if some pitchers? career Win Value significantly exceed their WAA.? In such a case, the pitcher can be said to be under-valued by traditional sabermetric methods.?

It will also be interesting to see if there are any pitchers for whom their seasonal Win Values regularly exceed their WAA figures throughout their career.? If so, such a pitcher may possess the ability to successfully ?pitch to the score? insofar as his contributions to winning would be systematically greater than reflected in his ERA?s.

23 top pitchers of the 1978-2001 era will be presented in order of their career Win Values.[2]? Table 33 lists these pitchers career (or career-to-date) stats.?

Table 33: Win Values for Top Stars in 1978-2001[3]

	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Roger Clemens (a)	280-145	145	65.2	66.56
Greg Maddux (a)	257-146	145	58.0	56.92
Randy Johnson (a)	200-101	141	41.8	42.36
Pedro Martinez (a)	132-59	169	36.8	35.09
Mike Mussina (a)	164-92	131	28.7	31.59
Kevin Brown (a)	180-118	131	33.6	30.64
Tom Glavine (a)	224-132	122	28.3	30.53
Bret Saberhagen	167-117	125	27.0	28.30
David Cone	193-123	119	25.1	27.45
Kevin Appier (a)	147-115	125	23.8	26.64
Jimmy Key	186-117	122	23.8	25.31
Curt Schilling (a)	132-101	126	23.1	25.07
Ron Guidry	170-91	119	19.9	24.28
Chuck Finley (a)	189-158	116	21.3	23.49
Dave Stieb	176-137	122	27.2	22.84
John Smoltz (a)	160-116	122	22.0	22.73
Orel Hershiser	204-150	111	17.3	21.23
Jack Morris	254-186	105	7.4	18.79
Dwight Gooden	194-112	110	13.9	18.60
Bob Welch	211-146	106	8.9	17.82
Frank Viola	176-150	112	16.0	17.14
David Wells (a)	166-114	110	11.1	14.12
Dave Stewart	168-129	100	-1.0	7.84

Here is more evidence that Win Values are reasonable.? Virtually every expert
would name Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez as the top four starting pitchers
of the last 25 years, and, from a career value perspective, probably in that
order.? The second tier includes Mussina, Brown, Glavine, Saberhagen, Cone,
and Schilling moving up with a bullet.?

We will now turn to a season-by-season
review of each of these top starting pitchers.

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[4]

Table 34: Win Values for Roger Clemens

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Roger Clemens	1984	9-4	97	-0.3	-0.54
Roger Clemens	1985	7-5	130	1.2	1.20
Roger Clemens	1986	24-4	168	5.5	*5.75*
Roger Clemens	1987	20-9	153	5.4	4.73
Roger Clemens	1988	18-12	141	4.1	5.11
Roger Clemens	1989	17-11	131	3.1	2.95
Roger Clemens	1990	21-6	212	6.4	*7.38*
Roger Clemens	1991	18-10	164	5.8	*4.77*
Roger Clemens	1992	18-11	175	5.7	5.25
Roger Clemens	1993	11-14	104	0.4	1.38
Roger Clemens	1994	9-7	177	4.2	*4.07*
Roger Clemens	1995	10-5	117	0.9	1.81
Roger Clemens	1996	10-13	140	4.0	3.07
Roger Clemens	1997	21-7	225	8.2	*8.22*
Roger Clemens	1998	20-6	176	5.5	*5.94*
Roger Clemens	1999	14-10	103	-0.4	0.55
Roger Clemens	2000	13-8	130	3.0	2.08
Roger Clemens	2001	20-3	128	2.5	2.83

Career-to-date		280-145	145	65.2	66.56

Roger Clemens is the best pitcher of the modern era according to Win Values
and virtually every other method.? Indeed Clemens may well be one of the best
three or four pitchers of all-time.

Table 35: Win Values for Greg Maddux

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Greg Maddux	1986	2-4	73	-0.6	-0.46
Greg Maddux	1987	6-14	76	-2.6	-2.25
Greg Maddux	1988	18-8	114	1.6	3.46
Greg Maddux	1989	19-12	128	2.7	2.61
Greg Maddux	1990	15-15	118	1.9	0.40
Greg Maddux	1991	15-11	116	1.7	1.41
Greg Maddux	1992	20-11	165	5.4	*5.35*
Greg Maddux	1993	20-10	170	5.9	*5.10*
Greg Maddux	1994	16-6	272	7.0	*6.34*
Greg Maddux	1995	19-2	262	7.0	*8.43*
Greg Maddux	1996	15-11	162	5.0	4.79
Greg Maddux	1997	19-4	191	5.9	6.57
Greg Maddux	1998	18-9	187	6.5	*5.33*
Greg Maddux	1999	19-9	126	2.0	1.48
Greg Maddux	2000	19-9	151	4.8	4.46
Greg Maddux	2001	17-11	144	3.8	3.91

Career-to-date		257-146	145	58.0	56.92

Greg Maddux is just a little behind Roger Clemens at this time in career win
values.? Of course, since Maddux is still pitching very well, he may well eclipse
Clemens as this era?s best pitcher before he retires.? I do not have the data
to calculate win values prior to 1978, but I would be surprised if any pitcher
had a better run than Maddux had from 1992-1998 (or 1992-2001).? Maybe Walter
Johnson from 1910-1919.

Table 36: Win Values for Randy Johnson

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Randy Johnson	1988	3-0	149	0.4	0.30
Randy Johnson	1989	7-13	85	-2.0	-1.48
Randy Johnson	1990	14-11	109	0.8	0.56
Randy Johnson	1991	13-10	104	0.4	1.09
Randy Johnson	1992	12-14	106	0.5	0.47
Randy Johnson	1993	19-8	136	3.5	3.46
Randy Johnson	1994	13-6	153	3.4	3.86
Randy Johnson	1995	18-2	191	5.9	*6.34*
Randy Johnson	1996	5-0	135	0.9	0.76
Randy Johnson	1997	20-4	197	5.8	5.66
Randy Johnson	1998	19-11	179	3.5	3.69
Randy Johnson	1999	17-9	184	6.5	*6.19*
Randy Johnson	2000	19-7	175	6.0	*5.40*
Randy Johnson	2001	21-6	184	6.2	6.06

Career-to-date		200-101	141	41.8	42.36

Randy Johnson has also had 8 great seasons of the past 9 (he was injured for
most of 1996).? Note that in these tables, the entries for each year reflect
both leagues if the pitcher was traded to the other league in mid-season (such
as Johnson in 1998).

Table 37: Win Values for Pedro Martinez

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Pedro Martinez	1992	0-1	153	0.1	0.01
Pedro Martinez	1993	10-5	147	1.8	-0.53
Pedro Martinez	1994	11-5	124	1.4	1.36
Pedro Martinez	1995	14-10	122	1.7	2.18
Pedro Martinez	1996	13-10	117	1.6	0.99
Pedro Martinez	1997	17-8	221	7.2	*7.01*
Pedro Martinez	1998	19-7	163	4.8	5.36
Pedro Martinez	1999	23-4	241	7.2	*7.22*
Pedro Martinez	2000	18-6	292	8.0	*8.02*
Pedro Martinez	2001	7-3	189	3.0	3.48

Career-to-date		132-59	169	36.8	35.09

Pedro Martinez is still young enough to make a run at Clemens and Maddux as
the best pitcher of this era.? Currently Pedro is making a comeback from his
injury-plagued 2001 season.? Note that Pedro?s 1993 season looks strange above,
but remember that Win Values only reflects his starts (he had two poor starts
for the Dodgers) whereas WAA reflects all 65 of his appearances.? Deriving win
values for relief appearances is an area I hope to look into.

Table 38: Win Values for Mike Mussina

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Mike Mussina	1991	4-5	138	1.3	1.36
Mike Mussina	1992	18-5	159	4.6	*5.47*
Mike Mussina	1993	14-6	101	-0.2	1.23
Mike Mussina	1994	16-5	164	3.9	3.89
Mike Mussina	1995	19-9	145	4.1	4.41
Mike Mussina	1996	19-11	102	0.2	0.82
Mike Mussina	1997	15-8	138	3.2	2.86
Mike Mussina	1998	13-10	131	2.5	2.27
Mike Mussina	1999	18-7	134	3.0	2.55
Mike Mussina	2000	11-15	126	2.5	2.46
Mike Mussina	2001	17-11	142	3.6	*4.27*

Career-to-date		164-92	131	28.7	31.59

Mike Mussina has been consistently very good for his entire career.? I am not
sure that he receives all the recognition that he deserves.

Table 39: Win Values for Kevin Brown

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Kevin Brown	1986	1-0	120	0.0	0.08
Kevin Brown	1987	Dnp	-	-	-
Kevin Brown	1988	1-1	96	-0.1	-0.55
Kevin Brown	1989	12-9	119	1.5	0.88
Kevin Brown	1990	12-10	109	0.6	0.32
Kevin Brown	1991	9-12	92	-1.1	-0.81
Kevin Brown	1992	21-11	115	1.6	1.89
Kevin Brown	1993	15-12	116	1.6	0.94
Kevin Brown	1994	7-9	100	-0.1	-0.44
Kevin Brown	1995	10-9	132	2.5	2.30
Kevin Brown	1996	17-11	215	6.7	*5.88*
Kevin Brown	1997	16-8	150	4.1	4.07
Kevin Brown	1998	18-7	164	5.0	5.31
Kevin Brown	1999	18-9	143	4.4	3.33
Kevin Brown	2000	13-6	170	4.9	5.39
Kevin Brown	2001	10-4	152	2.0	2.05

Career-to-date		180-118	131	33.6	30.64

Kevin Brown is an intense competitor.? Thus, it surprises me to see that his
career win value total is somewhat less than his career WAA figure.? I guess
that shows that the two stats do not necessarily move together and that great
care should be taken before any inferences (such as the pitcher is a ?winner?)
are drawn based upon small differences.

Table 40: Win Values for Tom Glavine

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Tom Glavine	1987	2-4	79	-0.8	-0.57
Tom Glavine	1988	7-17	81	-2.3	-2.26
Tom Glavine	1989	14-8	99	-0.1	0.46
Tom Glavine	1990	10-12	94	-0.8	-0.61
Tom Glavine	1991	20-11	152	4.5	3.48
Tom Glavine	1992	20-8	133	2.8	2.50
Tom Glavine	1993	22-6	126	2.6	4.02
Tom Glavine	1994	13-9	107	0.5	1.41
Tom Glavine	1995	16-7	139	2.9	3.81
Tom Glavine	1996	15-10	148	4.0	3.57
Tom Glavine	1997	14-7	142	3.7	3.26
Tom Glavine	1998	20-6	168	5.2	4.73
Tom Glavine	1999	14-11	109	0.5	1.40
Tom Glavine	2000	21-9	133	3.5	3.34
Tom Glavine	2001	16-7	123	2.1	1.98

Career-to-date		224-132	122	28.3	30.53

Tom Glavine has also been consistently very good, at least since 1991.? Glavine
and Maddux make up one of the best long-running pair of pitching teammates since
Spahn & Burdette and Koufax & Drysdale.? Before they are through, Glavine
& Maddux may be considered one of the best pitching duos of all-time.

Table 41: Win Values for Bret Saberhagen

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Bret Saberhagen	1984	10-11	116	1.1	-0.19
Bret Saberhagen	1985	20-6	145	3.8	*4.62*
Bret Saberhagen	1986	7-12	103	0.1	0.53
Bret Saberhagen	1987	18-10	136	3.6	3.49
Bret Saberhagen	1988	14-16	105	0.6	-0.55
Bret Saberhagen	1989	23-6	178	6.0	*5.81*
Bret Saberhagen	1990	5-9	118	1.0	1.49
Bret Saberhagen	1991	13-8	134	2.6	2.96
Bret Saberhagen	1992	3-5	99	0.0	1.18
Bret Saberhagen	1993	7-7	122	1.1	1.07
Bret Saberhagen	1994	14-4	153	3.2	3.28
Bret Saberhagen	1995	7-6	106	0.7	0.83
Bret Saberhagen	1996	Dnp	-	-	-
Bret Saberhagen	1997	0-1	71	-0.6	-0.63
Bret Saberhagen	1998	15-8	119	1.3	2.17
Bret Saberhagen	1999	10-6	169	2.8	2.72
Bret Saberhagen	2000	Dnp	-	-	-
Bret Saberhagen	2001	1-2	75	-0.3	-0.50

Career		167-117	125	27.0	28.30

To steal a line from Bill James (about Mickey Vernon, I think), Bret Saberhagen
would have had a helluva career if only he had filled in the gaps between brilliant
seasons with better performances.? Saberhagen?s roller-coaster career is aptly
reflected in the pattern of his win values.? He led the league twice in win
values, but had too many ?wasted? seasons.? Let?s just say that there?s not
much of a chance that Saberhagen will make Cooperstown.

Table 42: Win Values for David Cone

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
David Cone	1986	0-0	77	-0.4	0.00
David Cone	1987	5-6	102	0.1	0.50
David Cone	1988	20-3	145	3.5	3.56
David Cone	1989	14-8	93	-0.9	0.63
David Cone	1990	14-10	116	1.5	1.17
David Cone	1991	14-14	111	1.1	0.88
David Cone	1992	17-10	129	2.8	2.03
David Cone	1993	11-14	138	3.6	3.19
David Cone	1994	16-5	171	4.0	3.88
David Cone	1995	18-8	131	2.8	3.20
David Cone	1996	7-2	172	1.7	1.85
David Cone	1997	12-6	158	3.8	4.06
David Cone	1998	20-7	123	2.2	2.66
David Cone	1999	12-9	138	2.3	2.13
David Cone	2000	4-14	69	-3.3	-2.64
David Cone	2001	9-7	105	0.3	0.36

Career		193-123	119	25.1	27.45

David Cone is another pitcher, like Saberhagen, who had a lot of very good seasons.?
However, when his story is written I bet the theme will be of unfulfilled potential.?
Cone is not pitching currently (April 2002) but I have not heard that he is
officially retired.? I wonder if he would like another chance so that he can
reach 200 career wins.

Table 43: Win Values for Kevin Appier

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Kevin Appier	1989	1-4	42	-1.6	-0.99
Kevin Appier	1990	12-8	139	2.6	2.24
Kevin Appier	1991	13-10	120	1.9	0.71
Kevin Appier	1992	15-8	165	4.3	4.92
Kevin Appier	1993	18-8	179	5.7	5.91
Kevin Appier	1994	7-6	131	2.0	2.73
Kevin Appier	1995	15-10	123	2.1	3.16
Kevin Appier	1996	14-11	138	3.0	3.86
Kevin Appier	1997	9-13	139	3.5	3.13
Kevin Appier	1998	1-2	62	-0.5	-0.50
Kevin Appier	1999	16-14	95	-0.8	-0.28
Kevin Appier	2000	15-11	106	0.3	-0.01
Kevin Appier	2001	11-10	115	1.3	1.76

Career-to-date		147-115	125	23.8	26.64

Kevin Appier is one of the most over-looked pitchers of the modern era.? Of
course, he has pitched the majority of his career in Kansas City
for some pretty mediocre Royals teams.? So Appier has received next to no national
recognition.? I am not saying that he is a great, great pitcher or that he deserves
serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, but circumstances seemed to have
conspired against Appier throughout his career.

Table 44: Win Values for Jimmy Key

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Jimmy Key

1984

4-5

-0.4

0.00

Jimmy Key

1985

14-6

140

3.2

3.94

Jimmy Key

1986

14-11

118

1.8

2.18

Jimmy Key

1987

17-8

163

5.5

4.87

Jimmy Key

1988

12-5

120

1.1

1.60

Jimmy Key

1989

13-14

-0.4

0.34

Jimmy Key

1990

13-7

-0.7

0.32

Jim

Rob Wood Posted: August 19, 2002 at 06:00 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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