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Monday, August 19, 2002

Win Values:  A New Method to Evaluate Starting Pitchers - Part 7

Yearly Results for 1978-2001


Part   1: Introduction
  Part   2: Conceptual Framework
  Part 3: High-Level Results

  Part   4: Formulas
  Part   5: Empirical Data for AL 2000
  Part   6: Example: David Wells in AL 2000
  Part 7: Yearly Results for 1978-2001
  Part   8: Top Stars
  Part   9: Concluding Remarks

Yearly Results for 1978-2001

In this section I will report the top 10 Win Values for each league for each   season from 1978-2001.[1]

Table 9A: 1978 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Ron Guidry

25-3

208

7.3

6.83

Mike Caldwell

22-9

160

5.7

4.99

Jon Matlack

15-13

166

5.5

4.95

Dave Goltz

15-10

154

4.0

4.48

Jim Palmer

21-12

142

4.4

4.02

Fergie Jenkins

18-8

124

2.4

3.26

Dennis Eckersley

20-8

138

3.8

3.12

Larry Gura

16-4

141

3.3

3.11

Luis Tiant

13-8

125

2.1

2.82

Ed Figuera

20-9

122

2.1

2.55

Ron Guidry?s 1978 season was one of the best seasons by a starting pitcher   in the past 25 years.? You undoubtedly remember the MVP controversy when people   debated Guidry vs. Jim Rice.? Win Values comes down on the side of Guidry   being the rightful MVP.

Table 9B: 1978 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Bob Knepper

17-11

131

3.0

3.95

Vida Blue

18-10

124

2.3

3.63

Steve Rogers

13-10

143

3.3

3.51

Burt Hooten

19-10

130

2.6

3.49

Craig Swan

9-6

144

3.1

3.33

Phil Niekro

19-18

141

5.1

2.76

Ross Grimsley

20-11

116

1.8

2.36

Pete Vuckovich

12-12

139

2.7

2.35

Dick Ruthven

15-11

111

1.2

2.10

Don Robinson

14-6

107

0.7

2.02

1978 was not a strong year for NL starting pitchers.? Gaylord Perry, who finished   12th with a 1.99 Win Value, won the NL Cy Young award for going 21-6 with   a 122 ERA+ for the San Diego Padres.? It is interesting to note that Bob Knepper   and Vida Blue, the league leaders in 1978, completely reverse form and have   the two worst Win Value totals in 1979.

Table 10A: 1979 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Mike Flanagan

23-9

130

3.1

4.46

Dennis Eckersley

17-10

148

4.3

4.16

Tommy John

21-9

138

3.9

3.92

Ron Guidry

18-8

147

3.9

3.82

Jerry Koosman

20-13

130

3.2

3.70

Jack Morris

17-7

132

2.6

3.43

Mike Caldwell

16-6

127

2.5

2.71

Steve Comer

17-12

113

1.3

2.29

Jim Slaton

15-9

115

1.3

2.13

Geoff Zahn

13-7

123

1.6

2.05

Mike Flanagan deservedly ran away with the AL Cy Young award for the 1979   pennant winning Orioles.

Table 10B: 1979 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Joe Niekro

21-11

117

1.9

3.43

J.R. Richard

18-13

130

3.4

3.37

John Fulgham

10-6

149

2.4

2.82

Tom Seaver

16-6

119

1.7

2.20

John Candelaria

14-9

121

1.8

2.11

Silvio Martinez

15-8

115

1.4

2.02

Jim Bibby

12-4

138

1.9

1.99

David Palmer

10-2

139

1.7

1.96

Gaylord Perry

12-11

116

1.6

1.95

Dan Schatzeder

10-5

130

1.8

1.84

Another weak year for NL starting pitchers.? Looking at the names above, you   may not remember John Fulgham.? He pitched well in 1979 for the Cardinals   after being brought up in mid-season, pitched some in 1980, and then never   pitched in the majors again.? Bruce Sutter edged out Joe Niekro for the NL   Cy Young award.

Table 11A: 1980 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Mike Norris

22-9

149

4.7

5.47

Britt Burns

15-13

142

3.8

4.05

Steve Stone

25-7

123

2.4

3.42

Tommy John

22-9

115

1.7

3.16

Matt Keough

16-13

130

2.8

2.97

Rudy May

15-5

160

3.4

2.66

Scott McGregor

20-8

119

2.1

2.48

Jim Clancy

13-16

131

3.1

2.44

Moose Haas

16-15

125

2.6

2.21

Floyd Bannister

9-13

119

1.8

2.21

In his one shining season, Steve Stone edged out Mike Norris for the AL Cy   Young award.? According to win values, Norris contributed by far the most   to his teams among AL starting pitchers.? 1980 was Norris?s own one shining   season during Billy Martin?s first year in Oakland.? Norris and many of his   A?s teammates were really never the same after pitching under Martin?s demanding   workloads.

Table 11B: 1980 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Steve Carlton

24-9

162

6.0

5.85

Don Sutton

13-5

159

4.0

4.40

Vern Ruhle

12-4

139

2.1

3.14

Scott Sanderson

16-11

115

1.4

2.96

Jerry Reuss

18-6

140

3.2

2.89

J.R. Richard

10-4

173

2.3

2.67

Vida Blue

14-10

119

1.8

2.67

Jim Bibby

19-6

110

1.1

2.26

Bill Gullickson

10-5

119

1.1

2.24

Frank Pastore

13-7

110

0.8

2.20

Steve Carlton had a super year in 1980 for the surprising World Champion   Phillies.? He easily won the NL Cy Young award.? Note that Don Sutton?s W-L   record should have been much better than 13-5 but the Dodgers could not score   many runs for him.? Sutton started 31 games, averaged almost 7 innings per   start, but got a decision in only 18 starts.? J.R. Richard was on his way   to a fabulous season in 1980 when he was cut down by a stroke in mid-season.

Table 12A: 1981 AL Win Value Leaders

>

   












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Steve McCatty

14-7

150

3.3

2.98

Jack Morris

14-7

124

2.1

2.86

Dave Righetti

8-4

175

2.4

2.65

Milt Wilcox

12-9

125

1.8

2.40

Dave Stieb

11-10

124

1.9

2.27

Larry Gura

11-8

133

2.2

2.13

Ron Guidry

11-5

129

1.5

2.08

Jim Beattie

3-2

130

0.8

2.04

Bert Blyleven

11-7

126

1.7

2.01

Dennis Martinez

14-5

109

0.8

1.91

Rollie Fingers edged out Steve McCatty for the AL Cy Young award.? Maybe   the only good thing that can be said for the strike-year of 1981 is that it   provides evidence that in smaller samples there is greater variability in   WAA totals vs Win Values.? Remember that if everything ?evens out? over the   course of a season, we would expect WAA and Win Value to give similar estimates   of how much a pitcher contributed to his team winning.? Teams played between   103-111 games in the 1981 season, starters pitched around 23 games, clearly   not enough for things to even out.?

Table 12B: 1981 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Fernando Valenzuela

13-7

134

2.5

3.55

Bob Knepper

9-5

151

2.6

2.84

Steve Carlton

13-4

150

3.3

2.69

Nolan Ryan

11-5

195

3.5

2.66

Tom Seaver

14-2

140

2.4

2.55

Burt Hooton

11-6

146

2.2

2.53

Jerry Reuss

10-4

144

2.4

2.42

Vida Blue

8-6

140

1.8

1.91

Mario Soto

12-9

108

0.7

1.51

Bill Gullickson

7-9

125

1.6

1.46

Fernandomania ruled in 1981, and Valenzuela deservedly won the NL Cy Young   award.? Generally speaking, Cy Young voters have done a better job than traditional   sabermetrics would indicate.

Table 13A: 1982 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Dave Stieb

17-14

138

4.3

4.00

Jim Palmer

15-5

129

2.6

3.34

Rick Sutcliffe

14-8

138

3.1

3.11

Jim Clancy

16-14

121

2.5

3.00

Luis Leal

12-15

114

1.6

2.93

Dan Petry

15-9

126

2.7

2.28

Dennis Eckersley

13-13

116

1.6

2.12

Ed Whitson

4-2

125

1.1

1.80

Geoff Zahn

18-8

109

1.0

1.79

Ron Guidry

14-8

105

0.5

1.74

In a down year for ALstarting pitchers, Pete Vuckovich won a surprising   Cy Young award for the pennant-winning 1982 Brewers.? Vuckovich went 18-6   with a 114 ERA+, good for 11th place with a 1.64 Win Value.? Win Values indicates   that Dave Stieb contributed the most to his team winning in 1982.

Table 13B: 1982 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Steve Rogers

19-8

152

4.9

5.07

Joe Niekro

17-12

135

3.5

4.44

Steve Carlton

23-11

118

2.4

4.09

Joaquin Andujar

15-10

147

4.4

3.68

Fernando Valenzuela

19-13

121

2.4

3.14

Tim Lollar

16-9

110

1.0

2.91

John Candelaria

12-7

126

1.9

2.65

Mario Soto

14-13

133

3.3

2.61

Bob Forsch

15-9

104

0.5

2.45

Bruce Berenyi

9-18

110

1.1

2.05

Steve Carlton won his fourth and last NL Cy Young award in 1982.? Win Values   indicates that Steve Rogers actually contributed the most to his team winning   that season.? The disparity between Bob Forsch?s Win Value and his WAA may   be partly explained by his good hitting; Win Value will reflect his hitting   contributions (via run support) whereas WAA cannot since it only looks at   his ERA.

Table 14A: 1983 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Richard Dotson

22-7

130

2.9

3.65

Scott McGregor

18-7

125

2.5

3.53

Ron Guidry

21-9

114

1.5

3.21

Jack Morris

20-13

117

2.1

2.89

Charlie Hough

15-13

126

2.7

2.68

Rick Honeycutt

14-8

166

3.6

2.67

LaMarr Hoyt

24-10

115

1.6

2.43

Moose Haas

13-3

115

1.1

2.27

Matt Young

11-15

131

2.6

2.17

Dave Stieb

17-12

142

4.4

2.03

1983 was another down year for AL starting pitchers.? LaMarr Hoyt and his   24-10 record ran away with the Cy Young, despite his White Sox teammate Richard   Dotson deserving the award according to Win Values.

Table 14B: 1983 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

John Denny

19-6

151

4.1

3.95

Mario Soto

17-13

141

4.2

3.37

Joe Price

10-6

133

1.8

3.15

Bob Welch

15-12

136

2.7

2.90

Atlee Hammaker

10-9

158

3.2

2.75

John Candelaria

15-8

115

1.2

2.19

Pascual Perez

15-8

113

1.3

2.11

Nolan Ryan

14-9

114

1.2

2.10

Charlie Lea

16-11

115

1.4

2.04

Rick Rhoden

13-13

120

2.0

1.81

John Denny deservedly won the 1983 NL Cy Young award for leading the Philadelphia   ?Wheeze Kids? to a surprising pennant.

 

Table 15A: 1984 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Dave Stieb

16-8

145

4.4

4.91

Mike Boddicker

20-11

139

3.8

3.98

Doyle Alexander

17-6

131

3.3

3.74

Frank Viola

18-12

131

3.2

3.10

Bud Black

17-12

129

3.0

3.09

Bert Blyleven

19-7

143

3.8

3.06

Mike Witt

15-11

115

1.5

3.01

Mark Langston

17-10

118

1.7

2.84

Storm Davis

14-9

124

2.2

2.82

Jim Beattie

12-16

117

1.6

2.56

Willie Hernandez won the 1984 Cy Young award.? Hard-luck Dave Stieb probably   deserved the award but received only one third-place vote in the balloting.

Table 15B: 1984 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Dwight Gooden

17-9

136

3.0

4.64

Rick Sutcliffe

16-1

145

2.5

3.55

Rick Rhoden

14-9

133

2.9

3.11

Mario Soto

18-7

107

0.7

2.70

Dennis Eckersley

10-8

129

1.9

2.42

Steve Trout

13-7

115

1.3

2.19

Joaquin Andujar

20-14

104

0.5

2.17

Orel Hershiser

11-8

133

2.3

2.16

John Tudor

12-11

110

0.9

2.15

Rick Mahler

13-10

124

2.2

2.12

Rick Sutcliffe and his 16-1 record for the division-winning 1984 Cubs was   a unanimous NL Cy Young award winner.? Sutcliffe was acquired by the Cubs   from Cleveland in mid-June. ?The data for Sutcliffe in the above table, and   similarly for any pitcher who was traded between leagues in mid-season, only   reflects his NL games.? In case you are interested, in 15 starts for the Indians,   while going 4-5 Sutcliffe accumulated -1.46 Win Value points.

Table 16A: 1985 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Bret Saberhagen

20-6

145

3.8

4.62

Charlie Leibrandt

17-9

155

4.4

4.17

Jimmy Key

14-6

140

3.2

3.94

Charlie Hough

14-16

128

2.9

3.45

Mike Moore

17-10

122

2.3

3.44

Dave Stieb

14-13

170

5.9

3.42

Doyle Alexander

17-10

122

2.5

3.27

Jack Morris

16-11

122

2.3

3.12

Dan Petry

15-13

121

2.1

3.04

Tom Seaver

16-11

136

3.4

2.81

21-year old Bret Saberhagen rightfully ran away with the 1985 AL Cy Young   award for the World Champion Royals.? Dave Stieb led the league in ERA+ and   WAA, but managed to compile only a 14-13 record.? This isn?t exactly reliable,   but since Stieb is sandwiched in Win Values by two pitchers with identical   W-L and ERA+, we might be tempted to say that Win Values evaluates (14-13,   170) as being equivalent to (17-10, 122).

Table 16B: 1985 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Dwight Gooden

24-4

227

7.7

8.63

John Tudor

21-8

183

6.3

4.81

Orel Hershiser

19-3

172

5.1

3.54

Rick Reuschel

14-8

158

3.7

3.23

Danny Cox

18-9

123

2.2

2.61

Fernando Valenzuela

17-10

142

4.1

2.59

Bob Welch

14-4

151

2.8

2.54

Ron Darling

16-6

119

1.9

2.19

Dennis Eckersley

11-7

130

2.0

2.16

Andy Hawkins

18-8

113

1.2

2.10

20-year old Dwight Gooden was the unanimous NL Cy Young award winner.? In   fact, Gooden?s 1985 season was the best season in the past 25 years according   to Win Values.? Harkening back to the AL of 1978, Gooden probably also deserved   the MVP, though he finished a distant fourth.

Table 17A: 1986 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Roger Clemens

24-4

168

5.5

5.75

Teddy Higuera

20-11

155

4.8

5.16

Mike Witt

18-10

145

4.3

4.22

Kirk McCaskill

17-10

123

2.2

2.61

Jack Morris

21-8

126

2.9

2.33

Charlie Hough

17-10

114

1.4

2.32

Danny Jackson

11-12

133

2.4

2.26

Jimmy Key

14-11

118

1.8

2.18

Bruce Hurst

13-8

139

2.6

2.10

Don Sutton

15-11

110

0.8

1.96

Deservedly, Roger Clemens was the unanimous AL 1986 Cy Young award winner,   the first of his record six Cy Youngs, for the pennant-winning Red Sox.

 

Table 17B: 1986 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Mike Scott

18-10

162

5.5

5.15

Rick Rhoden

15-12

135

3.5

3.73

Mike Krukow

20-9

116

1.7

3.25

Ron Darling

15-6

126

2.4

3.24

Bob Ojeda

18-5

138

3.0

3.02

Dwight Gooden

17-6

125

2.4

2.72

John Tudor

13-7

125

2.2

2.51

Fernando Valenzuela

21-11

110

1.2

2.48

Bill Gullickson

15-12

115

1.6

2.30

Don Carman

10-5

120

1.2

2.10

Mike Scott and his split-finger fastball barely edged out Fernando Valenzuela   for the 1986 NL Cy Young award.? Win Values indicates that it should not have   even been close.

Table 18A: 1987 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Frank Viola

17-10

160

5.3

5.43

Jimmy Key

17-8

163

5.5

4.87

Roger Clemens

20-9

153

5.4

4.73

Bret Saberhagen

18-10

136

3.6

3.49

Jack Morris

18-11

125

2.7

2.98

Doyle Alexander

9-0

277

3.0

2.90

Rick Rhoden

16-10

114

1.0

2.83

Floyd Bannister

16-11

128

2.7

2.71

Teddy Higuera

18-10

119

2.2

2.64

Bert Blyleven

15-12

116

1.9

2.48

Roger Clemens won his 2nd consecutive AL Cy Young award in 1987.? Win values   suggest that Frank Viola contributed the most to his team leading the Twins   to their first world championship.

Table 18B: 1987 NL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Rick Reuschel

13-9

131

3.1

3.80

Mike Scott

16-13

121

2.2

3.55

Bob Welch

15-9

123

2.4

2.94

Mike Dunne

13-6

136

2.3

2.91

Orel Hershiser

16-16

130

3.1

2.63

Rick Sutcliffe

18-10

116

1.8

2.53

Nolan Ryan

8-16

142

3.2

2.41

Dwight Gooden

15-7

118

1.4

1.97

Dennis Martinez

11-4

128

1.6

1.85

Pascual Perez

7-0

183

1.7

1.82

In a down year for NL starters, Steve Bedrosian was the Cy Young award winner   in 1987.? I too would have had a tough time voting for any of these starters.

Table 19A: 1988 AL Win Value Leaders

>












?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Frank Viola

24-7

154

4.8

5.46

Teddy Higuera

16-9

162

4.5

5.18

Roger Clemens

18-12

141

4.1

5.11

Mark Gubicza

20-8

148

4.6

3.70

Mark Langston

15-11

125

2.7

3.59

Allan Anderson

16-9

167

4.3

3.22

Greg Swindell

18-14

129

2.8

3.01

Jeff Robinson

13-6

128

1.9

2.97

Tom Candiotti

14-8

126

2.3

2.68

Charlie Leibrandt

13-12

125

2.6

2.65

Frank Viola deservedly won the AL1988 Cy Young award.? I am not saying that   Teddy Higuera deserved the award, but voters have always had a tough time   voting for someone like Higuera who had a great ERA but less than a stellar   won-loss record.

Table 19B: 1988 NL Win Value Leaders

>



?

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Orel Hershiser

23-8

148

4.3

Rob Wood Posted: August 19, 2002 at 06:00 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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