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Primate Studies— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Monday, August 19, 2002
Win Values: A New Method to Evaluate Starting Pitchers - Part 7
Yearly Results for 1978-2001
|
Ron Guidry?s 1978 season was one of the best seasons by a starting pitcher
in the past 25 years.? You undoubtedly remember the MVP controversy when people
debated Guidry vs. Jim Rice.? Win Values comes down on the side of Guidry
being the rightful MVP.
Table 9B: 1978 NL Win Value Leaders
>
| W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Bob Knepper
| 17-11
| 131
| 3.0
| 3.95
|
Vida Blue
| 18-10
| 124
| 2.3
| 3.63
|
Steve Rogers
| 13-10
| 143
| 3.3
| 3.51
|
Burt Hooten
| 19-10
| 130
| 2.6
| 3.49
|
Craig Swan
| 9-6
| 144
| 3.1
| 3.33
|
Phil Niekro
| 19-18
| 141
| 5.1
| 2.76
|
Ross Grimsley
| 20-11
| 116
| 1.8
| 2.36
|
Pete Vuckovich
| 12-12
| 139
| 2.7
| 2.35
|
Dick Ruthven
| 15-11
| 111
| 1.2
| 2.10
|
Don Robinson
| 14-6
| 107
| 0.7
| 2.02
|
1978 was not a strong year for NL starting pitchers.? Gaylord Perry, who finished
12th with a 1.99 Win Value, won the NL Cy Young award for going 21-6 with
a 122 ERA+ for the San Diego Padres.? It is interesting to note that Bob Knepper
and Vida Blue, the league leaders in 1978, completely reverse form and have
the two worst Win Value totals in 1979.
Table 10A: 1979 AL Win Value Leaders
>
| W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Mike Flanagan
| 23-9
| 130
| 3.1
| 4.46
|
Dennis Eckersley
| 17-10
| 148
| 4.3
| 4.16
|
Tommy John
| 21-9
| 138
| 3.9
| 3.92
|
Ron Guidry
| 18-8
| 147
| 3.9
| 3.82
|
Jerry Koosman
| 20-13
| 130
| 3.2
| 3.70
|
Jack Morris
| 17-7
| 132
| 2.6
| 3.43
|
Mike Caldwell
| 16-6
| 127
| 2.5
| 2.71
|
Steve Comer
| 17-12
| 113
| 1.3
| 2.29
|
Jim Slaton
| 15-9
| 115
| 1.3
| 2.13
|
Geoff Zahn
| 13-7
| 123
| 1.6
| 2.05
|
Mike Flanagan deservedly ran away with the AL Cy Young award for the 1979
pennant winning Orioles.
Table 10B: 1979 NL Win Value Leaders
>
| W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Joe Niekro
| 21-11
| 117
| 1.9
| 3.43
|
J.R. Richard
| 18-13
| 130
| 3.4
| 3.37
|
John Fulgham
| 10-6
| 149
| 2.4
| 2.82
|
Tom Seaver
| 16-6
| 119
| 1.7
| 2.20
|
John Candelaria
| 14-9
| 121
| 1.8
| 2.11
|
Silvio Martinez
| 15-8
| 115
| 1.4
| 2.02
|
Jim Bibby
| 12-4
| 138
| 1.9
| 1.99
|
David Palmer
| 10-2
| 139
| 1.7
| 1.96
|
Gaylord Perry
| 12-11
| 116
| 1.6
| 1.95
|
Dan Schatzeder
| 10-5
| 130
| 1.8
| 1.84
|
Another weak year for NL starting pitchers.? Looking at the names above, you
may not remember John Fulgham.? He pitched well in 1979 for the Cardinals
after being brought up in mid-season, pitched some in 1980, and then never
pitched in the majors again.? Bruce Sutter edged out Joe Niekro for the NL
Cy Young award.
Table 11A: 1980 AL Win Value Leaders
>
| W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Mike Norris
| 22-9
| 149
| 4.7
| 5.47
|
Britt Burns
| 15-13
| 142
| 3.8
| 4.05
|
Steve Stone
| 25-7
| 123
| 2.4
| 3.42
|
Tommy John
| 22-9
| 115
| 1.7
| 3.16
|
Matt Keough
| 16-13
| 130
| 2.8
| 2.97
|
Rudy May
| 15-5
| 160
| 3.4
| 2.66
|
Scott McGregor
| 20-8
| 119
| 2.1
| 2.48
|
Jim Clancy
| 13-16
| 131
| 3.1
| 2.44
|
Moose Haas
| 16-15
| 125
| 2.6
| 2.21
|
Floyd Bannister
| 9-13
| 119
| 1.8
| 2.21
|
In his one shining season, Steve Stone edged out Mike Norris for the AL Cy
Young award.? According to win values, Norris contributed by far the most
to his teams among AL starting pitchers.? 1980 was Norris?s own one shining
season during Billy Martin?s first year in Oakland.? Norris and many of his
A?s teammates were really never the same after pitching under Martin?s demanding
workloads.
Table 11B: 1980 NL Win Value Leaders
>
| W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Steve Carlton
| 24-9
| 162
| 6.0
| 5.85
|
Don Sutton
| 13-5
| 159
| 4.0
| 4.40
|
Vern Ruhle
| 12-4
| 139
| 2.1
| 3.14
|
Scott Sanderson
| 16-11
| 115
| 1.4
| 2.96
|
Jerry Reuss
| 18-6
| 140
| 3.2
| 2.89
|
J.R. Richard
| 10-4
| 173
| 2.3
| 2.67
|
Vida Blue
| 14-10
| 119
| 1.8
| 2.67
|
Jim Bibby
| 19-6
| 110
| 1.1
| 2.26
|
Bill Gullickson
| 10-5
| 119
| 1.1
| 2.24
|
Frank Pastore
| 13-7
| 110
| 0.8
| 2.20
|
Steve Carlton had a super year in 1980 for the surprising World Champion
Phillies.? He easily won the NL Cy Young award.? Note that Don Sutton?s W-L
record should have been much better than 13-5 but the Dodgers could not score
many runs for him.? Sutton started 31 games, averaged almost 7 innings per
start, but got a decision in only 18 starts.? J.R. Richard was on his way
to a fabulous season in 1980 when he was cut down by a stroke in mid-season.
Table 12A: 1981 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Steve McCatty
| 14-7
| 150
| 3.3
| 2.98
|
Jack Morris
| 14-7
| 124
| 2.1
| 2.86
|
Dave Righetti
| 8-4
| 175
| 2.4
| 2.65
|
Milt Wilcox
| 12-9
| 125
| 1.8
| 2.40
|
Dave Stieb
| 11-10
| 124
| 1.9
| 2.27
|
Larry Gura
| 11-8
| 133
| 2.2
| 2.13
|
Ron Guidry
| 11-5
| 129
| 1.5
| 2.08
|
Jim Beattie
| 3-2
| 130
| 0.8
| 2.04
|
Bert Blyleven
| 11-7
| 126
| 1.7
| 2.01
|
Dennis Martinez
| 14-5
| 109
| 0.8
| 1.91
|
Rollie Fingers edged out Steve McCatty for the AL Cy Young award.? Maybe
the only good thing that can be said for the strike-year of 1981 is that it
provides evidence that in smaller samples there is greater variability in
WAA totals vs Win Values.? Remember that if everything ?evens out? over the
course of a season, we would expect WAA and Win Value to give similar estimates
of how much a pitcher contributed to his team winning.? Teams played between
103-111 games in the 1981 season, starters pitched around 23 games, clearly
not enough for things to even out.?
Table 12B: 1981 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Fernando Valenzuela
| 13-7
| 134
| 2.5
| 3.55
|
Bob Knepper
| 9-5
| 151
| 2.6
| 2.84
|
Steve Carlton
| 13-4
| 150
| 3.3
| 2.69
|
Nolan Ryan
| 11-5
| 195
| 3.5
| 2.66
|
Tom Seaver
| 14-2
| 140
| 2.4
| 2.55
|
Burt Hooton
| 11-6
| 146
| 2.2
| 2.53
|
Jerry Reuss
| 10-4
| 144
| 2.4
| 2.42
|
Vida Blue
| 8-6
| 140
| 1.8
| 1.91
|
Mario Soto
| 12-9
| 108
| 0.7
| 1.51
|
Bill Gullickson
| 7-9
| 125
| 1.6
| 1.46
|
Fernandomania ruled in 1981, and Valenzuela deservedly won the NL Cy Young
award.? Generally speaking, Cy Young voters have done a better job than traditional
sabermetrics would indicate.
Table 13A: 1982 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Dave Stieb
| 17-14
| 138
| 4.3
| 4.00
|
Jim Palmer
| 15-5
| 129
| 2.6
| 3.34
|
Rick Sutcliffe
| 14-8
| 138
| 3.1
| 3.11
|
Jim Clancy
| 16-14
| 121
| 2.5
| 3.00
|
Luis Leal
| 12-15
| 114
| 1.6
| 2.93
|
Dan Petry
| 15-9
| 126
| 2.7
| 2.28
|
Dennis Eckersley
| 13-13
| 116
| 1.6
| 2.12
|
Ed Whitson
| 4-2
| 125
| 1.1
| 1.80
|
Geoff Zahn
| 18-8
| 109
| 1.0
| 1.79
|
Ron Guidry
| 14-8
| 105
| 0.5
| 1.74
|
In a down year for ALstarting pitchers, Pete Vuckovich won a surprising
Cy Young award for the pennant-winning 1982 Brewers.? Vuckovich went 18-6
with a 114 ERA+, good for 11th place with a 1.64 Win Value.? Win Values indicates
that Dave Stieb contributed the most to his team winning in 1982.
Table 13B: 1982 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Steve Rogers
| 19-8
| 152
| 4.9
| 5.07
|
Joe Niekro
| 17-12
| 135
| 3.5
| 4.44
|
Steve Carlton
| 23-11
| 118
| 2.4
| 4.09
|
Joaquin Andujar
| 15-10
| 147
| 4.4
| 3.68
|
Fernando Valenzuela
| 19-13
| 121
| 2.4
| 3.14
|
Tim Lollar
| 16-9
| 110
| 1.0
| 2.91
|
John Candelaria
| 12-7
| 126
| 1.9
| 2.65
|
Mario Soto
| 14-13
| 133
| 3.3
| 2.61
|
Bob Forsch
| 15-9
| 104
| 0.5
| 2.45
|
Bruce Berenyi
| 9-18
| 110
| 1.1
| 2.05
|
Steve Carlton won his fourth and last NL Cy Young award in 1982.? Win Values
indicates that Steve Rogers actually contributed the most to his team winning
that season.? The disparity between Bob Forsch?s Win Value and his WAA may
be partly explained by his good hitting; Win Value will reflect his hitting
contributions (via run support) whereas WAA cannot since it only looks at
his ERA.
Table 14A: 1983 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Richard Dotson
| 22-7
| 130
| 2.9
| 3.65
|
Scott McGregor
| 18-7
| 125
| 2.5
| 3.53
|
Ron Guidry
| 21-9
| 114
| 1.5
| 3.21
|
Jack Morris
| 20-13
| 117
| 2.1
| 2.89
|
Charlie Hough
| 15-13
| 126
| 2.7
| 2.68
|
Rick Honeycutt
| 14-8
| 166
| 3.6
| 2.67
|
LaMarr Hoyt
| 24-10
| 115
| 1.6
| 2.43
|
Moose Haas
| 13-3
| 115
| 1.1
| 2.27
|
Matt Young
| 11-15
| 131
| 2.6
| 2.17
|
Dave Stieb
| 17-12
| 142
| 4.4
| 2.03
|
1983 was another down year for AL starting pitchers.? LaMarr Hoyt and his
24-10 record ran away with the Cy Young, despite his White Sox teammate Richard
Dotson deserving the award according to Win Values.
Table 14B: 1983 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
John Denny
| 19-6
| 151
| 4.1
| 3.95
|
Mario Soto
| 17-13
| 141
| 4.2
| 3.37
|
Joe Price
| 10-6
| 133
| 1.8
| 3.15
|
Bob Welch
| 15-12
| 136
| 2.7
| 2.90
|
Atlee Hammaker
| 10-9
| 158
| 3.2
| 2.75
|
John Candelaria
| 15-8
| 115
| 1.2
| 2.19
|
Pascual Perez
| 15-8
| 113
| 1.3
| 2.11
|
Nolan Ryan
| 14-9
| 114
| 1.2
| 2.10
|
Charlie Lea
| 16-11
| 115
| 1.4
| 2.04
|
Rick Rhoden
| 13-13
| 120
| 2.0
| 1.81
|
John Denny deservedly won the 1983 NL Cy Young award for leading the Philadelphia
?Wheeze Kids? to a surprising pennant.
Table 15A: 1984 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Dave Stieb
| 16-8
| 145
| 4.4
| 4.91
|
Mike Boddicker
| 20-11
| 139
| 3.8
| 3.98
|
Doyle Alexander
| 17-6
| 131
| 3.3
| 3.74
|
Frank Viola
| 18-12
| 131
| 3.2
| 3.10
|
Bud Black
| 17-12
| 129
| 3.0
| 3.09
|
Bert Blyleven
| 19-7
| 143
| 3.8
| 3.06
|
Mike Witt
| 15-11
| 115
| 1.5
| 3.01
|
Mark Langston
| 17-10
| 118
| 1.7
| 2.84
|
Storm Davis
| 14-9
| 124
| 2.2
| 2.82
|
Jim Beattie
| 12-16
| 117
| 1.6
| 2.56
|
Willie Hernandez won the 1984 Cy Young award.? Hard-luck Dave Stieb probably
deserved the award but received only one third-place vote in the balloting.
Table 15B: 1984 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Dwight Gooden
| 17-9
| 136
| 3.0
| 4.64
|
Rick Sutcliffe
| 16-1
| 145
| 2.5
| 3.55
|
Rick Rhoden
| 14-9
| 133
| 2.9
| 3.11
|
Mario Soto
| 18-7
| 107
| 0.7
| 2.70
|
Dennis Eckersley
| 10-8
| 129
| 1.9
| 2.42
|
Steve Trout
| 13-7
| 115
| 1.3
| 2.19
|
Joaquin Andujar
| 20-14
| 104
| 0.5
| 2.17
|
Orel Hershiser
| 11-8
| 133
| 2.3
| 2.16
|
John Tudor
| 12-11
| 110
| 0.9
| 2.15
|
Rick Mahler
| 13-10
| 124
| 2.2
| 2.12
|
Rick Sutcliffe and his 16-1 record for the division-winning 1984 Cubs was
a unanimous NL Cy Young award winner.? Sutcliffe was acquired by the Cubs
from Cleveland in mid-June. ?The data for Sutcliffe in the above table, and
similarly for any pitcher who was traded between leagues in mid-season, only
reflects his NL games.? In case you are interested, in 15 starts for the Indians,
while going 4-5 Sutcliffe accumulated -1.46 Win Value points.
Table 16A: 1985 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Bret Saberhagen
| 20-6
| 145
| 3.8
| 4.62
|
Charlie Leibrandt
| 17-9
| 155
| 4.4
| 4.17
|
Jimmy Key
| 14-6
| 140
| 3.2
| 3.94
|
Charlie Hough
| 14-16
| 128
| 2.9
| 3.45
|
Mike Moore
| 17-10
| 122
| 2.3
| 3.44
|
Dave Stieb
| 14-13
| 170
| 5.9
| 3.42
|
Doyle Alexander
| 17-10
| 122
| 2.5
| 3.27
|
Jack Morris
| 16-11
| 122
| 2.3
| 3.12
|
Dan Petry
| 15-13
| 121
| 2.1
| 3.04
|
Tom Seaver
| 16-11
| 136
| 3.4
| 2.81
|
21-year old Bret Saberhagen rightfully ran away with the 1985 AL Cy Young
award for the World Champion Royals.? Dave Stieb led the league in ERA+ and
WAA, but managed to compile only a 14-13 record.? This isn?t exactly reliable,
but since Stieb is sandwiched in Win Values by two pitchers with identical
W-L and ERA+, we might be tempted to say that Win Values evaluates (14-13,
170) as being equivalent to (17-10, 122).
Table 16B: 1985 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Dwight Gooden
| 24-4
| 227
| 7.7
| 8.63
|
John Tudor
| 21-8
| 183
| 6.3
| 4.81
|
Orel Hershiser
| 19-3
| 172
| 5.1
| 3.54
|
Rick Reuschel
| 14-8
| 158
| 3.7
| 3.23
|
Danny Cox
| 18-9
| 123
| 2.2
| 2.61
|
Fernando Valenzuela
| 17-10
| 142
| 4.1
| 2.59
|
Bob Welch
| 14-4
| 151
| 2.8
| 2.54
|
Ron Darling
| 16-6
| 119
| 1.9
| 2.19
|
Dennis Eckersley
| 11-7
| 130
| 2.0
| 2.16
|
Andy Hawkins
| 18-8
| 113
| 1.2
| 2.10
|
20-year old Dwight Gooden was the unanimous NL Cy Young award winner.? In
fact, Gooden?s 1985 season was the best season in the past 25 years according
to Win Values.? Harkening back to the AL of 1978, Gooden probably also deserved
the MVP, though he finished a distant fourth.
Table 17A: 1986 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Roger Clemens
| 24-4
| 168
| 5.5
| 5.75
|
Teddy Higuera
| 20-11
| 155
| 4.8
| 5.16
|
Mike Witt
| 18-10
| 145
| 4.3
| 4.22
|
Kirk McCaskill
| 17-10
| 123
| 2.2
| 2.61
|
Jack Morris
| 21-8
| 126
| 2.9
| 2.33
|
Charlie Hough
| 17-10
| 114
| 1.4
| 2.32
|
Danny Jackson
| 11-12
| 133
| 2.4
| 2.26
|
Jimmy Key
| 14-11
| 118
| 1.8
| 2.18
|
Bruce Hurst
| 13-8
| 139
| 2.6
| 2.10
|
Don Sutton
| 15-11
| 110
| 0.8
| 1.96
|
Deservedly, Roger Clemens was the unanimous AL 1986 Cy Young award winner,
the first of his record six Cy Youngs, for the pennant-winning Red Sox.
Table 17B: 1986 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Mike Scott
| 18-10
| 162
| 5.5
| 5.15
|
Rick Rhoden
| 15-12
| 135
| 3.5
| 3.73
|
Mike Krukow
| 20-9
| 116
| 1.7
| 3.25
|
Ron Darling
| 15-6
| 126
| 2.4
| 3.24
|
Bob Ojeda
| 18-5
| 138
| 3.0
| 3.02
|
Dwight Gooden
| 17-6
| 125
| 2.4
| 2.72
|
John Tudor
| 13-7
| 125
| 2.2
| 2.51
|
Fernando Valenzuela
| 21-11
| 110
| 1.2
| 2.48
|
Bill Gullickson
| 15-12
| 115
| 1.6
| 2.30
|
Don Carman
| 10-5
| 120
| 1.2
| 2.10
|
Mike Scott and his split-finger fastball barely edged out Fernando Valenzuela
for the 1986 NL Cy Young award.? Win Values indicates that it should not have
even been close.
Table 18A: 1987 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Frank Viola
| 17-10
| 160
| 5.3
| 5.43
|
Jimmy Key
| 17-8
| 163
| 5.5
| 4.87
|
Roger Clemens
| 20-9
| 153
| 5.4
| 4.73
|
Bret Saberhagen
| 18-10
| 136
| 3.6
| 3.49
|
Jack Morris
| 18-11
| 125
| 2.7
| 2.98
|
Doyle Alexander
| 9-0
| 277
| 3.0
| 2.90
|
Rick Rhoden
| 16-10
| 114
| 1.0
| 2.83
|
Floyd Bannister
| 16-11
| 128
| 2.7
| 2.71
|
Teddy Higuera
| 18-10
| 119
| 2.2
| 2.64
|
Bert Blyleven
| 15-12
| 116
| 1.9
| 2.48
|
Roger Clemens won his 2nd consecutive AL Cy Young award in 1987.? Win values
suggest that Frank Viola contributed the most to his team leading the Twins
to their first world championship.
Table 18B: 1987 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Rick Reuschel
| 13-9
| 131
| 3.1
| 3.80
|
Mike Scott
| 16-13
| 121
| 2.2
| 3.55
|
Bob Welch
| 15-9
| 123
| 2.4
| 2.94
|
Mike Dunne
| 13-6
| 136
| 2.3
| 2.91
|
Orel Hershiser
| 16-16
| 130
| 3.1
| 2.63
|
Rick Sutcliffe
| 18-10
| 116
| 1.8
| 2.53
|
Nolan Ryan
| 8-16
| 142
| 3.2
| 2.41
|
Dwight Gooden
| 15-7
| 118
| 1.4
| 1.97
|
Dennis Martinez
| 11-4
| 128
| 1.6
| 1.85
|
Pascual Perez
| 7-0
| 183
| 1.7
| 1.82
|
In a down year for NL starters, Steve Bedrosian was the Cy Young award winner
in 1987.? I too would have had a tough time voting for any of these starters.
Table 19A: 1988 AL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Frank Viola
| 24-7
| 154
| 4.8
| 5.46
|
Teddy Higuera
| 16-9
| 162
| 4.5
| 5.18
|
Roger Clemens
| 18-12
| 141
| 4.1
| 5.11
|
Mark Gubicza
| 20-8
| 148
| 4.6
| 3.70
|
Mark Langston
| 15-11
| 125
| 2.7
| 3.59
|
Allan Anderson
| 16-9
| 167
| 4.3
| 3.22
|
Greg Swindell
| 18-14
| 129
| 2.8
| 3.01
|
Jeff Robinson
| 13-6
| 128
| 1.9
| 2.97
|
Tom Candiotti
| 14-8
| 126
| 2.3
| 2.68
|
Charlie Leibrandt
| 13-12
| 125
| 2.6
| 2.65
|
Frank Viola deservedly won the AL1988 Cy Young award.? I am not saying that
Teddy Higuera deserved the award, but voters have always had a tough time
voting for someone like Higuera who had a great ERA but less than a stellar
won-loss record.
Table 19B: 1988 NL Win Value Leaders
>
? | W-L
| ERA+
| WAA
| Win Value
|
Orel Hershiser
| 23-8
| 148
| 4.3
|
Rob Wood
Posted: August 19, 2002 at 06:00 AM | 0 comment(s)
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