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Monday, September 16, 2002

Win Values: Updated for 1969, 1974-1977

More Win Values to sink your teeth into.

Introduction

The wonderful Retrosheet volunteers have recently released additional seasons of play-by-play data.? Thus, I am now able to extend my win value analysis for the 1969 & 1974-1977 seasons, in addition to the 1978-2001 seasons I reported in a previous article.

Yearly Results for 1969, 1974-1977

In this section I will report the top 10 Win Values for each league for each of the newly released seasons by Retrosheet.[1]

Table 57A: 1969 AL Win Value Leaders

                                                                                                             
 W-LERA+WAAWin Value
  Denny McLain24-91344.25.56
  Mike Cuellar23-111504.84.54
  Mel Stottlemyre20-141232.93.67
  Sam McDowell18-141283.33.57
  Fritz Peterson17-161373.73.39
  Jim Perry20-61303.03.28
  Blue Moon Odom15-61181.72.80
  Andy Messersmith16-111383.52.71
  Jim Palmer16-41533.12.46
  Dick Bosman   14-51583.62.23

Denny McLain and Mike Cuellar tied for the 1969 AL Cy Young award.? McLain had the better W-L record while Cuellar had the better ERA.? Win values indicate that McLain actually contributed more to his team.? McLain was coming off his stellar 31-win 1968 season.? The Cy Young tie led to a change in the balloting.? Starting in 1970 voters designated 1st, 2nd, 3rd place pitchers, whereas previously they just voted for number one.? With this change, there hasn?t been a Cy Young tie since 1969.

 

Table 57B: 1969 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Bob Gibson

20-131646.26.60

  Tom Seaver

25-71665.56.32

  Juan Marichal

21-111675.95.94

  Jerry Koosman

17-91614.65.33

  Steve Carlton

17-111654.74.69

  Bill Singer

20-121424.74.39

  Bill Hands

20-141626.14.30

  Phil Niekro

23-131414.13.85

  Larry Dierker

20-131525.43.78

  Fergie Jenkins

21-151263.33.18

1969 was a great year for starting pitchers in the NL.? Gibson, Seaver, and Marichal all had great seasons.? Seaver was the runaway winner of the Cy Young award (remember the Miracle Mets), but both WAA and win values indicate that Gibson was the best pitcher in the league.? Like Denny McLain, Gibson followed up his stellar 1968 season with a great season of his own.? Of course, this was not the first nor would be the last year in which Cy Young voters were overly impressed by a pitcher?s W-L record (though I am not saying that Seaver was not a deserving Cy Young winner).

Table 58A: 1974 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Gaylord Perry

21-131445.15.30

  Fergie Jenkins

25-121263.54.77

  Luis Tiant

22-131323.94.71

  Catfish Hunter

25-121344.03.72

  Nolan Ryan

22-161192.63.62

  Jim Kaat

21-131283.13.61

  Bert Blyleven

17-171404.33.21

  Al Fitzmorris

13-61372.63.16

  Steve Busby

22-141131.73.15

  Bart Johnson

10-41361.62.94

Catfish Hunter edged Fergie Jenkins for the 1974 AL Cy Young award.? Actually, according to both WAA and win values, Gaylord Perry was the league?s best pitcher.? Perry had another very good year for the Indians after previously winning the 1972 Cy Young award with Cleveland.? Note that this was Jenkins? first year in the AL after being traded by the Cubs to Texas.? So the top two pitchers in the AL in 1974 (according to win values) were both formerly stars in the NL.

 

Table 58B: 1974 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Phil Niekro

20-131595.84.71

  Jon Matlack

13-151484.43.95

  Jim Barr

13-91393.53.77

  Buzz Capra

16-81664.53.77

  Lynn McGlothen

16-121333.03.41

  Andy Messersmith

20-61323.53.30

  Larry Dierker

11-101201.92.66

  Jim Lonborg

17-131182.22.48

  Tommy John

13-31321.82.43

  Jim Rooker

15-111252.51.87

Phil Niekro comfortably led the NL in both WAA and win values in 1974 .? But Knucksie was destined never to come close to winning a Cy Young award.? Mike Marshall and his 106 relief appearances copped the Cy Young for the pennant-winning Dodgers.? We see that Jon Matlack had a losing record for the disappointing Mets despite a great ERA.? Also, we see the remnants of the very promising season in which Tommy John hurt his arm in mid-July.

Table 59A: 1975 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Jim Palmer

23-111686.67.12

  Jim Kaat

20-141253.13.44

  Catfish Hunter

23-141434.93.42

  Steve Busby

18-121252.73.07

  Frank Tanana

16-91363.42.89

  Bert Blyleven

15-101283.22.41

  Dennis Eckersley

13-71463.02.25

  Mike Torrez

20-91151.72.15

  Roger Moret

14-31130.92.12

  Ed Figueroa

16-131222.21.90

Jim Palmer won the 1975 AL trifecta: winning the Cy Young award and leading the league in WAA and win values.? This actually doesn?t happen very often.? Palmer?s season was the 7th best win value figure since 1974 (including 1969).? Actually, he edged out Catfish Hunter for the Cy Young award as the voters continue to be obsessed with a pitcher?s win total, especially getting to 20 wins.? Not to mention that this was Hunter?s first year pitching for the Yankees during which he received tremendous notoriety.? The Frank Tanana listed above threw very hard (unlike his later self), and led the league with 269 strikeouts.

 

Table 59B: 1975 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Tom Seaver

22-91464.44.73

  Andy Messersmith

19-141495.34.49

  John Montefusco

15-91323.14.31

  Randy Jones

20-121555.13.81

  Jerry Reuss

18-111403.53.75

  Don Sutton

16-131192.02.99

  Don Gullet

15-41492.62.76

  Burt Hooton

18-91121.92.49

  Doug Rau

15-91101.11.93

  Bob Forsch

15-101322.91.86

Tom Seaver edged Randy Jones for the 1975 NL Cy Young award.? I look forward to Retrosheet eventually releasing all of the seasons covering Seaver?s illustrious career since I am very curious in seeing how Seaver compares to the other pitching greats of the modern era.? In our historical journey, we see that Andy Messersmith had a great 1975 season for the Dodgers, the year before he was declared a free agent (after which injuries allowed him to win only 18 games for the rest of his career).

Table 60A: 1976 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Mark Fidrych

19-91594.95.95

  Vida Blue

18-131434.45.81

  Frank Tanana

19-101373.94.79

  Jim Palmer

22-131303.64.63

  Bert Blyleven

13-161252.44.05

  Luis Tiant

21-121283.23.51

  Mike Torrez

16-121343.42.48

  Wayne Garland

20-71232.12.19

  Bill Travers

15-161242.41.88

  Dock Ellis

17-81070.71.87

Jim Palmer won the 1976 AL Cy Young award.? Runner-up Mark Fidrych had his moment in the sun, leading the league in WAA and win values.? Palmer won 22 games in 40 starts whereas Fidrych won 19 games in only 29 starts.? Maybe Fidrych would have won the Cy Young had he gotten to 20 wins.? Vida Blue had another very good year, despite only an 18-13 record.? Blue?s career prospects might have never looked better than after his 27 year-old season; for his career to date he was 110-67 with a very good 129 ERA+.?

 

Table 60B: 1976 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Don Sutton

21-101111.33.74

  Doug Rau

16-121322.83.65

  Jerry Koosman

21-101232.23.62

  Tom Seaver

14-111272.83.40

  Ray Burris

15-131242.53.22

  John Montefusco

16-141282.83.12

  Randy Jones

22-141202.52.87

  Steve Carlton

20-71131.42.50

  John Denny

11-91403.02.44

  J.R. Richard

20-151161.92.35

1976 was a down year for NL starting pitchers.? Randy Jones won the Cy Young award in a fairly close vote over Jerry Koosman.? John Denny (and his 11-9 record) led the league in WAA and Don Sutton (gasp) led the league in win values.? If I were a Cy Young voter I may have looked for a relief pitcher, but this was the year before Bruce Sutter broke on to the scene.

Table 61A: 1977 AL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Jim Palmer

20-111313.75.50

  Frank Tanana

15-91554.44.13

  Dennis Leonard

20-121333.73.60

  Nolan Ryan

19-161424.53.48

  Bert Blyleven

14-121504.13.34

  Ron Guidry

16-71403.13.23

  Dennis Eckersley

14-131121.32.53

  Gaylord Perry

15-121222.22.40

  Doyle Alexander

17-111121.32.39

  Dave Rozema

15-71393.32.35

Sparky Lyle edged Jim Palmer (along with Nolan Ryan and Dennis Leonard) for the 1977 AL Cy Young award.? I guess the voters were tired of voting for Palmer every year; he had won 3 of the previous 4 Cy Youngs.? Palmer is another pitcher for whom I would love to see the complete record of win value figures.? We are currently missing the 1970-1973 seasons, in each of which Palmer had a great season.

 

Table 61B: 1977 NL Win Value Leaders

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  John Candelaria

20-51705.06.43

  Rick Reuschel

20-101585.05.67

  Tom Seaver

21-61504.65.12

  Steve Carlton

23-101525.14.35

  Tommy John

20-71383.13.28

  J.R. Richard

18-121202.23.26

  Bob Forsch

20-71111.12.95

  Don Sutton

14-81202.12.51

  Burt Hooton

12-71463.72.33

  Steve Rogers

17-161232.82.17

John Candelaria?s 170 ERA+ is the highest among this new batch of seasons (1969, 1974-1977).? Of course, there have been numerous seasons with higher ERA+ since 1977; in addition, there were five instances of a higher ERA+ in the intervening 1970-1973 seasons (Seaver, Wood, and Blue in 1971, Carlton in 1972, and Seaver again in 1973).? Steve Carlton easily won the 1977 NL Cy Young award; he had a great season and the voters loved his 23 wins.? Carlton is another modern pitcher for whom I?d love to have the complete win value record.? Tom Seaver had another great year, despite being shockingly traded in mid-June from the Mets to the Reds.

Top Starters

In this section I will present the partial season-by-season Win Value records for several of the top starting pitchers of the 1970?s (whom I did not include in the previous article).? In all cases, their entire careers to date will be presented.[2]? I tried to include any pitcher who started a significant number of games in their career in seasons for which we have win values data (1969, 1974-2001) and had either 200 wins or 450 starts in their career.

Along with Win Values, I will report the pitcher?s W-L, ERA+, and WAA figures.? We will then be able to see if some pitchers? career Win Value significantly exceed their WAA.? In such a case, the pitcher can be said to be under-valued by traditional sabermetric methods.

Table 62: Win Values for Top Stars since 1973[3]

 

>

 W-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Roger Clemens (a)

280-14514565.266.56

  Greg Maddux (a)

257-14614558.056.92

  Tom Seaver

311-20512751.554.91

  Jim Palmer

268-15212539.744.90

  Randy Johnson (a)

200-10114141.842.36

  Bert Blyleven

287-25011838.338.12

  Gaylord Perry

314-26511739.137.33

  Pedro Martinez (a)

132-5916936.835.09

  Steve Carlton

329-24411535.135.02

  Fergie Jenkins

284-22611529.433.63

  Mike Mussina (a)

164-9213128.731.59

  Nolan Ryan

324-29211226.131.05

  Kevin Brown (a)

180-11813133.630.64

  Phil Niekro

318-27411536.330.56

  Tom Glavine (a)

224-13212228.330.53

  Bret Saberhagen

167-11712527.028.30

  Don Sutton

324-25610819.028.21

  David Cone

193-12311925.127.45

  Tommy John

288-23111023.626.69

  Kevin Appier (a)

147-11512523.826.64

  Jimmy Key

186-11712223.825.31

  Curt Schilling (a)

132-10112623.125.07

  Luis Tiant

229-17211420.424.49

  Ron Guidry

170-9111919.924.28

  Chuck Finley (a)

189-15811621.323.49

  Rick Reuschel

214-19111421.922.87

  Dave Stieb

176-13712227.222.84

  John Smoltz (a)

160-11612222.022.73

  Orel Hershiser

204-15011117.321.23

  Jack Morris

254-1861057.418.79

  Dwight Gooden

194-11211013.918.60

  Vida Blue

209-16110812.618.55

  Bob Welch

211-1461068.917.82

  Frank Viola

176-15011216.017.14

  Jerry Koosman

222-20911017.216.47

  Dennis Martinez

245-19310610.714.17

  David Wells (a)

166-11411011.114.12

  Frank Tanana

240-23610610.411.44

  Charlie Hough

216-21610610.49.22

  Dave Stewart

168-129100-1.07.84

  Catfish Hunter

224-1661047.17.46

  Doyle Alexander

194-1741033.07.38

  Mike Torrez

185-16097-4.11.31

  Jerry Reuss

220-191100-0.3-0.49

  Joe Niekro

221-20497-4.9-2.88

 

 We will now turn to a season-by-season review of each of these top starting   pitchers.[4]

Table 63: Win Values for Tom Seaver

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Tom Seaver

196716-131232.3n.a.

  Tom Seaver

196816-121373.0n.a.

  Tom Seaver

196925-71665.56.32

  Tom Seaver

197018-121434.5n.a.

  Tom Seaver

197120-101947.0n.a.

  Tom Seaver

197221-121151.7n.a.

  Tom Seaver

197319-101746.3n.a.

  Tom Seaver

197411-111121.31.70

  Tom Seaver

197522-91464.44.73

  Tom Seaver

197614-111272.83.40

  Tom Seaver

197721-61504.65.12

  Tom Seaver

197816-141242.41.52

  Tom Seaver

197916-61191.72.20

  Tom Seaver

198010-898-0.20.40

  Tom Seaver

198114-21402.42.55

  Tom Seaver

19825-1367-2.7-2.13

  Tom Seaver

19839-141030.2-0.85

  Tom Seaver

198415-111050.51.56

  Tom Seaver

198516-111363.42.81

  Tom Seaver

19867-131050.40.78
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 311-20512751.554.91

70% of Seaver?s career is covered by win values (as another reminder, the career win value figure in the table above uses the WAA figures for any seasons for which win values are currently unavailable).? Tom Seaver is clearly an all-time great.? Seaver falls just a little short of Clemens and Maddux in career win values according to the table above.? But we will have more to say about where Seaver belongs in the next section.

Table 64: Win Values for Jim Palmer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value
  Jim Palmer19655-493-0.1n.a.
  Jim Palmer196615-1096-0.7n.a.
  Jim Palmer19673-11070.1n.a.
  Jim Palmer1968Dnp---
  Jim Palmer196916-41533.12.46
  Jim Palmer197020-101343.9n.a.
  Jim Palmer197120-91252.8n.a.
  Jim Palmer197221-101494.3n.a.
  Jim Palmer197322-91565.5n.a.
  Jim Palmer19747-121060.40.63
  Jim Palmer197523-111686.67.12
  Jim Palmer197622-131303.64.63
  Jim Palmer197720-111313.75.50
  Jim Palmer197821-121424.44.02
  Jim Palmer197910-61221.41.36
  Jim Palmer198016-10100-0.10.63
  Jim Palmer19817-897-0.20.10
  Jim Palmer198215-51292.63.34
  Jim Palmer19835-494-0.30.15
  Jim Palmer19840-342-1.3-0.84
                 
  Career 268-15212539.744.90

67% of career covered by win values.? Jim Palmer was one of the very best pitchers   throughout the 1970?s, winning 20 games eight times.? Palmer?s win values are   moderately higher than WAA, and we are missing some of his best seasons (1970-1973).

Table 65: Win Values for Bert Blyleven

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Bert Blyleven

197010-91171.2n.a.

  Bert Blyleven

197116-151263.0n.a.

  Bert Blyleven

197217-171182.1n.a.

  Bert Blyleven

197320-171576.3n.a.

  Bert Blyleven

197417-171404.33.21

  Bert Blyleven

197515-101283.22.41

  Bert Blyleven

197613-161253.04.05

  Bert Blyleven

197714-121504.13.34

  Bert Blyleven

197814-101222.22.02

  Bert Blyleven

197912-51080.80.72

  Bert Blyleven

19808-1395-0.5-0.10

  Bert Blyleven

198111-71261.72.01

  Bert Blyleven

19822-284-0.2-0.48

  Bert Blyleven

19837-101090.60.21

  Bert Blyleven

198419-71433.83.06

  Bert Blyleven

198517-161344.02.70

  Bert Blyleven

198617-141080.91.20

  Bert Blyleven

198715-121161.92.48

  Bert Blyleven

198810-1775-3.7-2.44

  Bert Blyleven

198917-51403.54.12

  Bert Blyleven

19908-773-2.6-2.08

  Bert Blyleven

1991Dnp---

  Bert Blyleven

19928-1284-1.3-0.91
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 287-25011838.338.12

82% of career is covered by win values.? I am confident that most people reading this will already be familiar with the puzzling case of Bert Blyleven.? By all sabermetric measures I have ever seen, Blyleven is a solid Hall of Famer.? There are reasons why Bert is having so much trouble getting into Cooperstown, but they are all crappy reasons.

Table 66: Win Values for Gaylord Perry

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Gaylord Perry

19623-173-0.6n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

19631-679-0.6n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

196412-111301.6n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

19658-1286-0.9n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

196621-81232.1n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

196715-171262.8n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

196816-151202.0n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

196919-141414.62.52

  Gaylord Perry

197023-131243.3n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

197116-121232.6n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

197224-161686.8n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

197319-191162.4n.a.

  Gaylord Perry

197421-131445.15.30

  Gaylord Perry

197518-171172.21.87

  Gaylord Perry

197615-141111.31.47

  Gaylord Perry

197715-121222.22.40

  Gaylord Perry

197821-61222.31.99

  Gaylord Perry

197912-111161.61.95

  Gaylord Perry

198010-131060.6-0.32

  Gaylord Perry

19818-991-0.60.33

  Gaylord Perry

198210-1297-0.50.05

  Gaylord Perry

19837-1490-1.2-1.73
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 314-26511739.137.33

55% of career covered by win values.? Gaylord Perry really was a great pitcher, despite the reputation that has surrounded him for years.? He will look even better when account is taken of his longevity in the next section.

Table 67: Win Values for Steve Carlton

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Steve Carlton

19650-01530.2n.a.

  Steve Carlton

19663-31150.4n.a.

  Steve Carlton

196714-91100.9n.a.

  Steve Carlton

196813-1197-0.1n.a.

  Steve Carlton

196917-111654.74.69

  Steve Carlton

197010-191111.2n.a.

  Steve Carlton

197120-91010.2n.a.

  Steve Carlton

197227-101828.2n.a.

  Steve Carlton

197313-2098-0.4n.a.

  Steve Carlton

197416-131182.21.11

  Steve Carlton

197515-141050.61.09

  Steve Carlton

197620-71131.42.50

  Steve Carlton

197723-101525.14.35

  Steve Carlton

197816-131262.50.98

  Steve Carlton

197918-111060.71.47

  Steve Carlton

198024-91626.05.85

  Steve Carlton

198113-41503.32.69

  Steve Carlton

198223-111182.44.09

  Steve Carlton

198315-161151.71.47

  Steve Carlton

198413-71020.10.23

  Steve Carlton

19851-81110.5-0.50

  Steve Carlton

19869-1483-2.8-2.79

  Steve Carlton

19876-1480-2.3-2.55

  Steve Carlton

19880-124-1.6-0.26
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 329-24411535.135.02

71% of career covered by win values.? Steve Carlton was a tremendous pitcher.? I am very curious to see how win values evaluates Carlton?s fantastic 1972 season (27-10 for the woeful 59-97 Phillies).? Like many players, he undoubtedly hung on too long but it is extremely difficult for any major leaguer, and especially stars, to pick just the right time to retire.

Table 68: Win Values for Fergie Jenkins

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value
  Fergie Jenkins19652-11580.3n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins19666-81110.4n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins196720-131273.0n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins196820-151202.2n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins196921-151263.33.18
  Fergie Jenkins197022-161334.2n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins197124-131425.2n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins197220-121192.4n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins197314-161020.2n.a.
  Fergie Jenkins197425-121263.54.77
  Fergie Jenkins197517-1896-0.80.67
  Fergie Jenkins197612-111201.81.70
  Fergie Jenkins197710-101221.90.92
  Fergie Jenkins197818-81242.43.26
  Fergie Jenkins197916-141020.00.71
  Fergie Jenkins198012-121030.31.47
  Fergie Jenkins19815-877-1.5-0.90
  Fergie Jenkins198214-151191.80.49
  Fergie Jenkins19836-988-1.2-0.54
                 
  Career 284-22611529.433.63

60% of career covered by win values.? Fergie Jenkins was a consistent 20-game winner for the Cubs in the late 1960?s/early 1970?s.? One key to his success was that Jenkins did not walk many batters (a key to winning in a hitter?s ballpark).

Table 69: Win Values for Nolan Ryan

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Nolan Ryan

19660-124-0.6n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

1967Dnp---

  Nolan Ryan

19686-998-0.5n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

19696-31040.1-0.02

  Nolan Ryan

19707-111181.0n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

197110-1486-1.3n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

197219-161282.9n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

197321-161243.1n.a.

  Nolan Ryan

197422-161192.63.62

  Nolan Ryan

197514-121030.20.87

  Nolan Ryan

197617-18990.01.62

  Nolan Ryan

197719-161424.53.48

  Nolan Ryan

197810-1397-0.50.07

  Nolan Ryan

197916-141141.31.05

  Nolan Ryan

198011-1098-0.20.22

  Nolan Ryan

198111-51953.52.66

  Nolan Ryan

198216-121050.61.53

  Nolan Ryan

198314-91141.22.10

  Nolan Ryan

198412-111090.80.68

  Nolan Ryan

198510-1291-1.2-0.38

  Nolan Ryan

198612-81080.70.77

  Nolan Ryan

19878-161423.22.41

  Nolan Ryan

198812-1195-0.6-0.43

  Nolan Ryan

198916-101242.32.80

  Nolan Ryan

199013-91141.21.01

  Nolan Ryan

199112-61392.43.20

  Nolan Ryan

19925-91020.10.14

  Nolan Ryan

19935-585-0.7-0.95
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 324-29211226.131.05

80% of career covered by win values.? There is almost no way to accurately capture Nolan Ryan?s career.? He is the most extreme in many dimensions, so if there is any slight ?bias? in a stat, it will be magnified the most for Ryan.? Win values indicate that Ryan truly was a great pitcher during his career (note that win values are moderately higher than WAA).? Remember that win values looks at run prevention in its totality; that is, it does not consider whether the pitcher was a strikeout artist or a control pitcher who relies on his defense.? I guess that means that win values may undervalue Ryan.

Table 70: Win Values for Phil Niekro

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Phil Niekro

19640-073-0.1n.a.

  Phil Niekro

19652-31220.5n.a.

  Phil Niekro

19664-388-0.3n.a.

  Phil Niekro

196711-91783.8n.a.

  Phil Niekro

196814-121161.5n.a.

  Phil Niekro

196923-131414.13.85

  Phil Niekro

197012-181010.0n.a.

  Phil Niekro

197115-141252.7n.a.

  Phil Niekro

197216-121242.9n.a.

  Phil Niekro

197313-101192.0n.a.

  Phil Niekro

197420-131595.84.71

  Phil Niekro

197515-151182.21.61

  Phil Niekro

197617-111151.82.13

  Phil Niekro

197716-201101.7-0.41

  Phil Niekro

197819-181415.12.76

  Phil Niekro

197921-201203.01.06

  Phil Niekro

198015-181030.41.06

  Phil Niekro

19817-71161.00.47

  Phil Niekro

198217-41040.50.50

  Phil Niekro

198311-1098-0.30.67

  Phil Niekro

198416-81232.02.03

  Phil Niekro

198516-1298-0.30.64

  Phil Niekro

198611-1196-0.6-2.11

  Phil Niekro

19877-1373-3.1-1.41
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 318-27411536.330.56

70% of career covered by win values.? Phil Niekro racked up a ton of innings in his career.? In the middle of his career, he started over 40 games three seasons in a row (and over 300 innings).? Note that Niekro?s win values seems significantly lower than WAA.? I am not sure why.? Possibly Niekro gave up a lot of unearned runs in his career, which would be reflected in his win values (but not his WAA).

Table 71: Win Values for Don Sutton

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Don Sutton

196612-121101.0n.a.

  Don Sutton

196711-1579-2.7n.a.

  Don Sutton

196811-151060.5n.a.

  Don Sutton

196917-1896-0.6-0.37

  Don Sutton

197015-1394-0.9n.a.

  Don Sutton

197117-121272.7n.a.

  Don Sutton

197219-91605.2n.a.

  Don Sutton

197318-101423.7n.a.

  Don Sutton

197419-91060.71.61

  Don Sutton

197516-131192.02.99

  Don Sutton

197621-101111.33.74

  Don Sutton

197714-81202.12.51

  Don Sutton

197815-1199-0.3-0.42

  Don Sutton

197912-1595-0.7-1.07

  Don Sutton

198013-51594.04.40

  Don Sutton

198111-91261.61.37

  Don Sutton

198217-91121.31.65

  Don Sutton

19838-1392-1.1-0.29

  Don Sutton

198414-121020.10.30

  Don Sutton

198515-101010.01.29

  Don Sutton

198615-111100.81.96

  Don Sutton

198711-1192-1.0-0.07

  Don Sutton

19883-685-0.7-0.89
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 324-25610819.028.21

68% of career covered by win values.? Don Sutton was a notorious Hall of Fame case a few years back, but win values is pretty kind to Sutton, especially in comparison to WAA.

Table 72: Win Values for Tommy John

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Tommy John

19630-21640.2n.a.

  Tommy John

19642-992-0.3n.a.

  Tommy John

196514-71030.8n.a.

  Tommy John

196614-111212.0n.a.

  Tommy John

196710-131262.4n.a.

  Tommy John

196810-51532.8n.a.

  Tommy John

19699-111192.01.60

  Tommy John

197012-171192.2n.a.

  Tommy John

197113-16100-0.1n.a.

  Tommy John

197211-51151.3n.a.

  Tommy John

197316-71111.1n.a.

  Tommy John

197413-31321.82.43

  Tommy John

1975Dnp---

  Tommy John

197610-101100.90.34

  Tommy John

197720-71383.13.28

  Tommy John

197817-101070.5-0.27

  Tommy John

197921-91383.93.92

  Tommy John

198022-91151.73.16

  Tommy John

19819-81362.01.56

  Tommy John

198214-121080.90.57

  Tommy John

198311-1393-1.0-0.68

  Tommy John

19847-1388-1.4-0.69

  Tommy John

19854-1072-1.8-1.08

  Tommy John

19865-31401.01.12

  Tommy John

198713-61090.70.54

  Tommy John

19889-888-1.40.06

  Tommy John

19892-767-1.7-1.57
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 288-23111023.626.69

65% of career covered by win values.? Tommy John missed a season in mid-career, but more than made up for it by pitching until he was 46.? Tommy John is a tough Hall of Fame call, though he is clearly greater than many HOF pitchers.?

Table 73: Win Values for Luis Tiant

>

 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Luis Tiant

196410-41271.1n.a.

  Luis Tiant

196511-1199-0.3n.a.

  Luis Tiant

196612-111231.5n.a.

  Luis Tiant

196712-91191.6n.a.

  Luis Tiant

196821-91854.2n.a.

  Luis Tiant

19699-201020.2-1.21

  Luis Tiant

19707-31100.4n.a.

  Luis Tiant

19711-776-1.2n.a.

  Luis Tiant

197215-61693.6n.a.

  Luis Tiant

197320-131202.3n.a.

  Luis Tiant

197422-131323.94.71

  Luis Tiant

197518-141020.21.85

  Luis Tiant

197621-121283.23.51

  Luis Tiant

197712-899-0.10.72

  Luis Tiant

197813-81252.12.82

  Luis Tiant

197913-81050.30.71

  Luis Tiant

19808-980-1.8-1.00

  Luis Tiant

19812-592-0.2-0.75

  Luis Tiant

19822-270-0.6-0.07
 

 

 

 

 

 

  Career

 229-17211420.424.49

58% of career covered by win values.? Luis Tiant also missed significant time in mid-career with a bad arm.? His Hall of Fame case seems to be centered on the fact that he was better than Catfish Hunter.

Table 74: Win Values for Rick Reuschel

>

 

Rob Wood Posted: September 16, 2002 at 06:00 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. tangotiger Posted: September 17, 2002 at 12:47 AM (#606254)
A big shout out to Rob for running the data.

When you present a sound methodology, and data, with reasonable assumptions, with very little interpretation, there's very little to "debate". But, I just want to say thanks for the probably many countless hours you spent to run this.

   2. emancip8d Posted: September 18, 2002 at 12:48 AM (#606313)
In Part 4 ParkAdder is defined as

ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)=WinProb2(RS,Z,PN)-WinProb2(RS,Z,PF)

In a hitters' park (PF>100), WinProb2(RS,Z,PN)>WinProb2(RS,Z,PF) which makes ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)>0. When PF<100, ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)<0. That is what is reflected in Part 6, Table 8 and the text that follows. For instance, Wells' 4/8 game at Tex had a ParkAdder>0 and Wells' 4/24 game at Oak had a ParkAdder<0.

However, in Part 4, Eq. 7, ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF) is given as

ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)=PAddPct(RS)*(2*(100-PF))*(Z/9)+

which produces the opposite sign. I believe Eq. 7 in Part 4 needs to be corrected to

ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)=PAddPct(RS)*(2*(PF-100))*(Z/9)+

From the tables and the text it appears the calculations were correctly made using this last equation.
   3. Rob Wood Posted: September 18, 2002 at 12:48 AM (#606322)
Thanks Tango for your kind words. Yes, compiling and running the data through the Win Value routines takes hours. But the longer part, and the most fun, was developing the methodology in the first place. Of course, the tireless Retrosheet volunteers deserve a tremendous amount of credit (and gratitude) for doing all the original data collection and computerization. Thanks again to those good folks.

I fear that emancip8d has caught an error in one of the formulas. As he suggests, the error is only in the exposition and not in the analysis. Thanks for catching the error. I will see if the error can be corrected and the article re-posted.

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 YearW-LERA+WAAWin Value

  Rick Reuschel

197210-81301.5n.a.

  Rick Reuschel

197314-151323.0n.a.

  Rick Reuschel

197413-1289-1.6-0.58

  Rick Reuschel

197511-171030.3-0.14

  Rick Reuschel

197614-121121.31.37

  Rick Reuschel

197720-101585.05.67

  Rick Reuschel

197814-151181.90.32

  Rick Reuschel

197918-121141.51.77

  Rick Reuschel

198011-131151.80.93

  Rick Reuschel

19818-111191.20.44

  Rick Reuschel

1982Dnp---

  Rick Reuschel

19831-1970.00.20

  Rick Reuschel

19845-576-1.6-0.78

  Rick Reuschel

198514-8158

 

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