Win Values: Updated for 1969, 1974-1977

More Win Values to sink your teeth into.

Introduction

The wonderful Retrosheet volunteers have recently released additional seasons of play-by-play data.? Thus, I am now able to extend my win value analysis for the 1969 & 1974-1977 seasons, in addition to the 1978-2001 seasons I reported in a previous article.

Yearly Results for 1969, 1974-1977

In this section I will report the top 10 Win Values for each league for each of the newly released seasons by Retrosheet.[1]

Table 57A: 1969 AL Win Value Leaders

                                                                                                             

	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Denny McLain	24-9	134	4.2	5.56
Mike Cuellar	23-11	150	4.8	4.54
Mel Stottlemyre	20-14	123	2.9	3.67
Sam McDowell	18-14	128	3.3	3.57
Fritz Peterson	17-16	137	3.7	3.39
Jim Perry	20-6	130	3.0	3.28
Blue Moon Odom	15-6	118	1.7	2.80
Andy Messersmith	16-11	138	3.5	2.71
Jim Palmer	16-4	153	3.1	2.46
Dick Bosman	14-5	158	3.6	2.23

Denny McLain and Mike Cuellar tied for the 1969 AL Cy Young award.? McLain had the better W-L record while Cuellar had the better ERA.? Win values indicate that McLain actually contributed more to his team.? McLain was coming off his stellar 31-win 1968 season.? The Cy Young tie led to a change in the balloting.? Starting in 1970 voters designated 1st, 2nd, 3rd place pitchers, whereas previously they just voted for number one.? With this change, there hasn?t been a Cy Young tie since 1969.

 

Table 57B: 1969 NL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Bob Gibson	20-13	164	6.2	6.60
Tom Seaver	25-7	166	5.5	6.32
Juan Marichal	21-11	167	5.9	5.94
Jerry Koosman	17-9	161	4.6	5.33
Steve Carlton	17-11	165	4.7	4.69
Bill Singer	20-12	142	4.7	4.39
Bill Hands	20-14	162	6.1	4.30
Phil Niekro	23-13	141	4.1	3.85
Larry Dierker	20-13	152	5.4	3.78
Fergie Jenkins	21-15	126	3.3	3.18

1969 was a great year for starting pitchers in the NL.? Gibson, Seaver, and Marichal all had great seasons.? Seaver was the runaway winner of the Cy Young award (remember the Miracle Mets), but both WAA and win values indicate that Gibson was the best pitcher in the league.? Like Denny McLain, Gibson followed up his stellar 1968 season with a great season of his own.? Of course, this was not the first nor would be the last year in which Cy Young voters were overly impressed by a pitcher?s W-L record (though I am not saying that Seaver was not a deserving Cy Young winner).

Table 58A: 1974 AL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Gaylord Perry	21-13	144	5.1	5.30
Fergie Jenkins	25-12	126	3.5	4.77
Luis Tiant	22-13	132	3.9	4.71
Catfish Hunter	25-12	134	4.0	3.72
Nolan Ryan	22-16	119	2.6	3.62
Jim Kaat	21-13	128	3.1	3.61
Bert Blyleven	17-17	140	4.3	3.21
Al Fitzmorris	13-6	137	2.6	3.16
Steve Busby	22-14	113	1.7	3.15
Bart Johnson	10-4	136	1.6	2.94

Catfish Hunter edged Fergie Jenkins for the 1974 AL Cy Young award.? Actually, according to both WAA and win values, Gaylord Perry was the league?s best pitcher.? Perry had another very good year for the Indians after previously winning the 1972 Cy Young award with Cleveland.? Note that this was Jenkins? first year in the AL after being traded by the Cubs to Texas.? So the top two pitchers in the AL in 1974 (according to win values) were both formerly stars in the NL.

 

Table 58B: 1974 NL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Phil Niekro	20-13	159	5.8	4.71
Jon Matlack	13-15	148	4.4	3.95
Jim Barr	13-9	139	3.5	3.77
Buzz Capra	16-8	166	4.5	3.77
Lynn McGlothen	16-12	133	3.0	3.41
Andy Messersmith	20-6	132	3.5	3.30
Larry Dierker	11-10	120	1.9	2.66
Jim Lonborg	17-13	118	2.2	2.48
Tommy John	13-3	132	1.8	2.43
Jim Rooker	15-11	125	2.5	1.87

Phil Niekro comfortably led the NL in both WAA and win values in 1974 .? But Knucksie was destined never to come close to winning a Cy Young award.? Mike Marshall and his 106 relief appearances copped the Cy Young for the pennant-winning Dodgers.? We see that Jon Matlack had a losing record for the disappointing Mets despite a great ERA.? Also, we see the remnants of the very promising season in which Tommy John hurt his arm in mid-July.

Table 59A: 1975 AL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Jim Palmer	23-11	168	6.6	7.12
Jim Kaat	20-14	125	3.1	3.44
Catfish Hunter	23-14	143	4.9	3.42
Steve Busby	18-12	125	2.7	3.07
Frank Tanana	16-9	136	3.4	2.89
Bert Blyleven	15-10	128	3.2	2.41
Dennis Eckersley	13-7	146	3.0	2.25
Mike Torrez	20-9	115	1.7	2.15
Roger Moret	14-3	113	0.9	2.12
Ed Figueroa	16-13	122	2.2	1.90

Jim Palmer won the 1975 AL trifecta: winning the Cy Young award and leading the league in WAA and win values.? This actually doesn?t happen very often.? Palmer?s season was the 7th best win value figure since 1974 (including 1969).? Actually, he edged out Catfish Hunter for the Cy Young award as the voters continue to be obsessed with a pitcher?s win total, especially getting to 20 wins.? Not to mention that this was Hunter?s first year pitching for the Yankees during which he received tremendous notoriety.? The Frank Tanana listed above threw very hard (unlike his later self), and led the league with 269 strikeouts.

 

Table 59B: 1975 NL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Tom Seaver	22-9	146	4.4	4.73
Andy Messersmith	19-14	149	5.3	4.49
John Montefusco	15-9	132	3.1	4.31
Randy Jones	20-12	155	5.1	3.81
Jerry Reuss	18-11	140	3.5	3.75
Don Sutton	16-13	119	2.0	2.99
Don Gullet	15-4	149	2.6	2.76
Burt Hooton	18-9	112	1.9	2.49
Doug Rau	15-9	110	1.1	1.93
Bob Forsch	15-10	132	2.9	1.86

Tom Seaver edged Randy Jones for the 1975 NL Cy Young award.? I look forward to Retrosheet eventually releasing all of the seasons covering Seaver?s illustrious career since I am very curious in seeing how Seaver compares to the other pitching greats of the modern era.? In our historical journey, we see that Andy Messersmith had a great 1975 season for the Dodgers, the year before he was declared a free agent (after which injuries allowed him to win only 18 games for the rest of his career).

Table 60A: 1976 AL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Mark Fidrych	19-9	159	4.9	5.95
Vida Blue	18-13	143	4.4	5.81
Frank Tanana	19-10	137	3.9	4.79
Jim Palmer	22-13	130	3.6	4.63
Bert Blyleven	13-16	125	2.4	4.05
Luis Tiant	21-12	128	3.2	3.51
Mike Torrez	16-12	134	3.4	2.48
Wayne Garland	20-7	123	2.1	2.19
Bill Travers	15-16	124	2.4	1.88
Dock Ellis	17-8	107	0.7	1.87

Jim Palmer won the 1976 AL Cy Young award.? Runner-up Mark Fidrych had his moment in the sun, leading the league in WAA and win values.? Palmer won 22 games in 40 starts whereas Fidrych won 19 games in only 29 starts.? Maybe Fidrych would have won the Cy Young had he gotten to 20 wins.? Vida Blue had another very good year, despite only an 18-13 record.? Blue?s career prospects might have never looked better than after his 27 year-old season; for his career to date he was 110-67 with a very good 129 ERA+.?

 

Table 60B: 1976 NL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Don Sutton	21-10	111	1.3	3.74
Doug Rau	16-12	132	2.8	3.65
Jerry Koosman	21-10	123	2.2	3.62
Tom Seaver	14-11	127	2.8	3.40
Ray Burris	15-13	124	2.5	3.22
John Montefusco	16-14	128	2.8	3.12
Randy Jones	22-14	120	2.5	2.87
Steve Carlton	20-7	113	1.4	2.50
John Denny	11-9	140	3.0	2.44
J.R. Richard	20-15	116	1.9	2.35

1976 was a down year for NL starting pitchers.? Randy Jones won the Cy Young award in a fairly close vote over Jerry Koosman.? John Denny (and his 11-9 record) led the league in WAA and Don Sutton (gasp) led the league in win values.? If I were a Cy Young voter I may have looked for a relief pitcher, but this was the year before Bruce Sutter broke on to the scene.

Table 61A: 1977 AL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Jim Palmer	20-11	131	3.7	5.50
Frank Tanana	15-9	155	4.4	4.13
Dennis Leonard	20-12	133	3.7	3.60
Nolan Ryan	19-16	142	4.5	3.48
Bert Blyleven	14-12	150	4.1	3.34
Ron Guidry	16-7	140	3.1	3.23
Dennis Eckersley	14-13	112	1.3	2.53
Gaylord Perry	15-12	122	2.2	2.40
Doyle Alexander	17-11	112	1.3	2.39
Dave Rozema	15-7	139	3.3	2.35

Sparky Lyle edged Jim Palmer (along with Nolan Ryan and Dennis Leonard) for the 1977 AL Cy Young award.? I guess the voters were tired of voting for Palmer every year; he had won 3 of the previous 4 Cy Youngs.? Palmer is another pitcher for whom I would love to see the complete record of win value figures.? We are currently missing the 1970-1973 seasons, in each of which Palmer had a great season.

 

Table 61B: 1977 NL Win Value Leaders

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
John Candelaria	20-5	170	5.0	6.43
Rick Reuschel	20-10	158	5.0	5.67
Tom Seaver	21-6	150	4.6	5.12
Steve Carlton	23-10	152	5.1	4.35
Tommy John	20-7	138	3.1	3.28
J.R. Richard	18-12	120	2.2	3.26
Bob Forsch	20-7	111	1.1	2.95
Don Sutton	14-8	120	2.1	2.51
Burt Hooton	12-7	146	3.7	2.33
Steve Rogers	17-16	123	2.8	2.17

John Candelaria?s 170 ERA+ is the highest among this new batch of seasons (1969, 1974-1977).? Of course, there have been numerous seasons with higher ERA+ since 1977; in addition, there were five instances of a higher ERA+ in the intervening 1970-1973 seasons (Seaver, Wood, and Blue in 1971, Carlton in 1972, and Seaver again in 1973).? Steve Carlton easily won the 1977 NL Cy Young award; he had a great season and the voters loved his 23 wins.? Carlton is another modern pitcher for whom I?d love to have the complete win value record.? Tom Seaver had another great year, despite being shockingly traded in mid-June from the Mets to the Reds.

Top Starters

In this section I will present the partial season-by-season Win Value records for several of the top starting pitchers of the 1970?s (whom I did not include in the previous article).? In all cases, their entire careers to date will be presented.[2]? I tried to include any pitcher who started a significant number of games in their career in seasons for which we have win values data (1969, 1974-2001) and had either 200 wins or 450 starts in their career.

Along with Win Values, I will report the pitcher?s W-L, ERA+, and WAA figures.? We will then be able to see if some pitchers? career Win Value significantly exceed their WAA.? In such a case, the pitcher can be said to be under-valued by traditional sabermetric methods.

Table 62: Win Values for Top Stars since 1973[3]

 

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	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Roger Clemens (a)	280-145	145	65.2	66.56
Greg Maddux (a)	257-146	145	58.0	56.92
Tom Seaver	311-205	127	51.5	54.91
Jim Palmer	268-152	125	39.7	44.90
Randy Johnson (a)	200-101	141	41.8	42.36
Bert Blyleven	287-250	118	38.3	38.12
Gaylord Perry	314-265	117	39.1	37.33
Pedro Martinez (a)	132-59	169	36.8	35.09
Steve Carlton	329-244	115	35.1	35.02
Fergie Jenkins	284-226	115	29.4	33.63
Mike Mussina (a)	164-92	131	28.7	31.59
Nolan Ryan	324-292	112	26.1	31.05
Kevin Brown (a)	180-118	131	33.6	30.64
Phil Niekro	318-274	115	36.3	30.56
Tom Glavine (a)	224-132	122	28.3	30.53
Bret Saberhagen	167-117	125	27.0	28.30
Don Sutton	324-256	108	19.0	28.21
David Cone	193-123	119	25.1	27.45
Tommy John	288-231	110	23.6	26.69
Kevin Appier (a)	147-115	125	23.8	26.64
Jimmy Key	186-117	122	23.8	25.31
Curt Schilling (a)	132-101	126	23.1	25.07
Luis Tiant	229-172	114	20.4	24.49
Ron Guidry	170-91	119	19.9	24.28
Chuck Finley (a)	189-158	116	21.3	23.49
Rick Reuschel	214-191	114	21.9	22.87
Dave Stieb	176-137	122	27.2	22.84
John Smoltz (a)	160-116	122	22.0	22.73
Orel Hershiser	204-150	111	17.3	21.23
Jack Morris	254-186	105	7.4	18.79
Dwight Gooden	194-112	110	13.9	18.60
Vida Blue	209-161	108	12.6	18.55
Bob Welch	211-146	106	8.9	17.82
Frank Viola	176-150	112	16.0	17.14
Jerry Koosman	222-209	110	17.2	16.47
Dennis Martinez	245-193	106	10.7	14.17
David Wells (a)	166-114	110	11.1	14.12
Frank Tanana	240-236	106	10.4	11.44
Charlie Hough	216-216	106	10.4	9.22
Dave Stewart	168-129	100	-1.0	7.84
Catfish Hunter	224-166	104	7.1	7.46
Doyle Alexander	194-174	103	3.0	7.38
Mike Torrez	185-160	97	-4.1	1.31
Jerry Reuss	220-191	100	-0.3	-0.49
Joe Niekro	221-204	97	-4.9	-2.88

 

 We will now turn to a season-by-season review of each of these top starting   pitchers.[4]

Table 63: Win Values for Tom Seaver

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Tom Seaver	1967	16-13	123	2.3	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1968	16-12	137	3.0	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1969	25-7	166	5.5	6.32
Tom Seaver	1970	18-12	143	4.5	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1971	20-10	194	7.0	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1972	21-12	115	1.7	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1973	19-10	174	6.3	n.a.
Tom Seaver	1974	11-11	112	1.3	1.70
Tom Seaver	1975	22-9	146	4.4	4.73
Tom Seaver	1976	14-11	127	2.8	3.40
Tom Seaver	1977	21-6	150	4.6	5.12
Tom Seaver	1978	16-14	124	2.4	1.52
Tom Seaver	1979	16-6	119	1.7	2.20
Tom Seaver	1980	10-8	98	-0.2	0.40
Tom Seaver	1981	14-2	140	2.4	2.55
Tom Seaver	1982	5-13	67	-2.7	-2.13
Tom Seaver	1983	9-14	103	0.2	-0.85
Tom Seaver	1984	15-11	105	0.5	1.56
Tom Seaver	1985	16-11	136	3.4	2.81
Tom Seaver	1986	7-13	105	0.4	0.78
Career		311-205	127	51.5	54.91

70% of Seaver?s career is covered by win values (as another reminder, the career win value figure in the table above uses the WAA figures for any seasons for which win values are currently unavailable).? Tom Seaver is clearly an all-time great.? Seaver falls just a little short of Clemens and Maddux in career win values according to the table above.? But we will have more to say about where Seaver belongs in the next section.

Table 64: Win Values for Jim Palmer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Jim Palmer	1965	5-4	93	-0.1	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1966	15-10	96	-0.7	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1967	3-1	107	0.1	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1968	Dnp	-	-	-
Jim Palmer	1969	16-4	153	3.1	2.46
Jim Palmer	1970	20-10	134	3.9	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1971	20-9	125	2.8	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1972	21-10	149	4.3	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1973	22-9	156	5.5	n.a.
Jim Palmer	1974	7-12	106	0.4	0.63
Jim Palmer	1975	23-11	168	6.6	7.12
Jim Palmer	1976	22-13	130	3.6	4.63
Jim Palmer	1977	20-11	131	3.7	5.50
Jim Palmer	1978	21-12	142	4.4	4.02
Jim Palmer	1979	10-6	122	1.4	1.36
Jim Palmer	1980	16-10	100	-0.1	0.63
Jim Palmer	1981	7-8	97	-0.2	0.10
Jim Palmer	1982	15-5	129	2.6	3.34
Jim Palmer	1983	5-4	94	-0.3	0.15
Jim Palmer	1984	0-3	42	-1.3	-0.84
Career		268-152	125	39.7	44.90

67% of career covered by win values.? Jim Palmer was one of the very best pitchers   throughout the 1970?s, winning 20 games eight times.? Palmer?s win values are   moderately higher than WAA, and we are missing some of his best seasons (1970-1973).

Table 65: Win Values for Bert Blyleven

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Bert Blyleven	1970	10-9	117	1.2	n.a.
Bert Blyleven	1971	16-15	126	3.0	n.a.
Bert Blyleven	1972	17-17	118	2.1	n.a.
Bert Blyleven	1973	20-17	157	6.3	n.a.
Bert Blyleven	1974	17-17	140	4.3	3.21
Bert Blyleven	1975	15-10	128	3.2	2.41
Bert Blyleven	1976	13-16	125	3.0	4.05
Bert Blyleven	1977	14-12	150	4.1	3.34
Bert Blyleven	1978	14-10	122	2.2	2.02
Bert Blyleven	1979	12-5	108	0.8	0.72
Bert Blyleven	1980	8-13	95	-0.5	-0.10
Bert Blyleven	1981	11-7	126	1.7	2.01
Bert Blyleven	1982	2-2	84	-0.2	-0.48
Bert Blyleven	1983	7-10	109	0.6	0.21
Bert Blyleven	1984	19-7	143	3.8	3.06
Bert Blyleven	1985	17-16	134	4.0	2.70
Bert Blyleven	1986	17-14	108	0.9	1.20
Bert Blyleven	1987	15-12	116	1.9	2.48
Bert Blyleven	1988	10-17	75	-3.7	-2.44
Bert Blyleven	1989	17-5	140	3.5	4.12
Bert Blyleven	1990	8-7	73	-2.6	-2.08
Bert Blyleven	1991	Dnp	-	-	-
Bert Blyleven	1992	8-12	84	-1.3	-0.91
Career		287-250	118	38.3	38.12

82% of career is covered by win values.? I am confident that most people reading this will already be familiar with the puzzling case of Bert Blyleven.? By all sabermetric measures I have ever seen, Blyleven is a solid Hall of Famer.? There are reasons why Bert is having so much trouble getting into Cooperstown, but they are all crappy reasons.

Table 66: Win Values for Gaylord Perry

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Gaylord Perry	1962	3-1	73	-0.6	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1963	1-6	79	-0.6	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1964	12-11	130	1.6	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1965	8-12	86	-0.9	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1966	21-8	123	2.1	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1967	15-17	126	2.8	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1968	16-15	120	2.0	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1969	19-14	141	4.6	2.52
Gaylord Perry	1970	23-13	124	3.3	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1971	16-12	123	2.6	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1972	24-16	168	6.8	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1973	19-19	116	2.4	n.a.
Gaylord Perry	1974	21-13	144	5.1	5.30
Gaylord Perry	1975	18-17	117	2.2	1.87
Gaylord Perry	1976	15-14	111	1.3	1.47
Gaylord Perry	1977	15-12	122	2.2	2.40
Gaylord Perry	1978	21-6	122	2.3	1.99
Gaylord Perry	1979	12-11	116	1.6	1.95
Gaylord Perry	1980	10-13	106	0.6	-0.32
Gaylord Perry	1981	8-9	91	-0.6	0.33
Gaylord Perry	1982	10-12	97	-0.5	0.05
Gaylord Perry	1983	7-14	90	-1.2	-1.73
Career		314-265	117	39.1	37.33

55% of career covered by win values.? Gaylord Perry really was a great pitcher, despite the reputation that has surrounded him for years.? He will look even better when account is taken of his longevity in the next section.

Table 67: Win Values for Steve Carlton

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Steve Carlton	1965	0-0	153	0.2	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1966	3-3	115	0.4	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1967	14-9	110	0.9	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1968	13-11	97	-0.1	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1969	17-11	165	4.7	4.69
Steve Carlton	1970	10-19	111	1.2	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1971	20-9	101	0.2	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1972	27-10	182	8.2	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1973	13-20	98	-0.4	n.a.
Steve Carlton	1974	16-13	118	2.2	1.11
Steve Carlton	1975	15-14	105	0.6	1.09
Steve Carlton	1976	20-7	113	1.4	2.50
Steve Carlton	1977	23-10	152	5.1	4.35
Steve Carlton	1978	16-13	126	2.5	0.98
Steve Carlton	1979	18-11	106	0.7	1.47
Steve Carlton	1980	24-9	162	6.0	5.85
Steve Carlton	1981	13-4	150	3.3	2.69
Steve Carlton	1982	23-11	118	2.4	4.09
Steve Carlton	1983	15-16	115	1.7	1.47
Steve Carlton	1984	13-7	102	0.1	0.23
Steve Carlton	1985	1-8	111	0.5	-0.50
Steve Carlton	1986	9-14	83	-2.8	-2.79
Steve Carlton	1987	6-14	80	-2.3	-2.55
Steve Carlton	1988	0-1	24	-1.6	-0.26
Career		329-244	115	35.1	35.02

71% of career covered by win values.? Steve Carlton was a tremendous pitcher.? I am very curious to see how win values evaluates Carlton?s fantastic 1972 season (27-10 for the woeful 59-97 Phillies).? Like many players, he undoubtedly hung on too long but it is extremely difficult for any major leaguer, and especially stars, to pick just the right time to retire.

Table 68: Win Values for Fergie Jenkins

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Fergie Jenkins	1965	2-1	158	0.3	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1966	6-8	111	0.4	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1967	20-13	127	3.0	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1968	20-15	120	2.2	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1969	21-15	126	3.3	3.18
Fergie Jenkins	1970	22-16	133	4.2	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1971	24-13	142	5.2	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1972	20-12	119	2.4	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1973	14-16	102	0.2	n.a.
Fergie Jenkins	1974	25-12	126	3.5	4.77
Fergie Jenkins	1975	17-18	96	-0.8	0.67
Fergie Jenkins	1976	12-11	120	1.8	1.70
Fergie Jenkins	1977	10-10	122	1.9	0.92
Fergie Jenkins	1978	18-8	124	2.4	3.26
Fergie Jenkins	1979	16-14	102	0.0	0.71
Fergie Jenkins	1980	12-12	103	0.3	1.47
Fergie Jenkins	1981	5-8	77	-1.5	-0.90
Fergie Jenkins	1982	14-15	119	1.8	0.49
Fergie Jenkins	1983	6-9	88	-1.2	-0.54
Career		284-226	115	29.4	33.63

60% of career covered by win values.? Fergie Jenkins was a consistent 20-game winner for the Cubs in the late 1960?s/early 1970?s.? One key to his success was that Jenkins did not walk many batters (a key to winning in a hitter?s ballpark).

Table 69: Win Values for Nolan Ryan

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Nolan Ryan	1966	0-1	24	-0.6	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1967	Dnp	-	-	-
Nolan Ryan	1968	6-9	98	-0.5	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1969	6-3	104	0.1	-0.02
Nolan Ryan	1970	7-11	118	1.0	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1971	10-14	86	-1.3	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1972	19-16	128	2.9	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1973	21-16	124	3.1	n.a.
Nolan Ryan	1974	22-16	119	2.6	3.62
Nolan Ryan	1975	14-12	103	0.2	0.87
Nolan Ryan	1976	17-18	99	0.0	1.62
Nolan Ryan	1977	19-16	142	4.5	3.48
Nolan Ryan	1978	10-13	97	-0.5	0.07
Nolan Ryan	1979	16-14	114	1.3	1.05
Nolan Ryan	1980	11-10	98	-0.2	0.22
Nolan Ryan	1981	11-5	195	3.5	2.66
Nolan Ryan	1982	16-12	105	0.6	1.53
Nolan Ryan	1983	14-9	114	1.2	2.10
Nolan Ryan	1984	12-11	109	0.8	0.68
Nolan Ryan	1985	10-12	91	-1.2	-0.38
Nolan Ryan	1986	12-8	108	0.7	0.77
Nolan Ryan	1987	8-16	142	3.2	2.41
Nolan Ryan	1988	12-11	95	-0.6	-0.43
Nolan Ryan	1989	16-10	124	2.3	2.80
Nolan Ryan	1990	13-9	114	1.2	1.01
Nolan Ryan	1991	12-6	139	2.4	3.20
Nolan Ryan	1992	5-9	102	0.1	0.14
Nolan Ryan	1993	5-5	85	-0.7	-0.95
Career		324-292	112	26.1	31.05

80% of career covered by win values.? There is almost no way to accurately capture Nolan Ryan?s career.? He is the most extreme in many dimensions, so if there is any slight ?bias? in a stat, it will be magnified the most for Ryan.? Win values indicate that Ryan truly was a great pitcher during his career (note that win values are moderately higher than WAA).? Remember that win values looks at run prevention in its totality; that is, it does not consider whether the pitcher was a strikeout artist or a control pitcher who relies on his defense.? I guess that means that win values may undervalue Ryan.

Table 70: Win Values for Phil Niekro

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Phil Niekro	1964	0-0	73	-0.1	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1965	2-3	122	0.5	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1966	4-3	88	-0.3	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1967	11-9	178	3.8	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1968	14-12	116	1.5	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1969	23-13	141	4.1	3.85
Phil Niekro	1970	12-18	101	0.0	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1971	15-14	125	2.7	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1972	16-12	124	2.9	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1973	13-10	119	2.0	n.a.
Phil Niekro	1974	20-13	159	5.8	4.71
Phil Niekro	1975	15-15	118	2.2	1.61
Phil Niekro	1976	17-11	115	1.8	2.13
Phil Niekro	1977	16-20	110	1.7	-0.41
Phil Niekro	1978	19-18	141	5.1	2.76
Phil Niekro	1979	21-20	120	3.0	1.06
Phil Niekro	1980	15-18	103	0.4	1.06
Phil Niekro	1981	7-7	116	1.0	0.47
Phil Niekro	1982	17-4	104	0.5	0.50
Phil Niekro	1983	11-10	98	-0.3	0.67
Phil Niekro	1984	16-8	123	2.0	2.03
Phil Niekro	1985	16-12	98	-0.3	0.64
Phil Niekro	1986	11-11	96	-0.6	-2.11
Phil Niekro	1987	7-13	73	-3.1	-1.41
Career		318-274	115	36.3	30.56

70% of career covered by win values.? Phil Niekro racked up a ton of innings in his career.? In the middle of his career, he started over 40 games three seasons in a row (and over 300 innings).? Note that Niekro?s win values seems significantly lower than WAA.? I am not sure why.? Possibly Niekro gave up a lot of unearned runs in his career, which would be reflected in his win values (but not his WAA).

Table 71: Win Values for Don Sutton

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Don Sutton	1966	12-12	110	1.0	n.a.
Don Sutton	1967	11-15	79	-2.7	n.a.
Don Sutton	1968	11-15	106	0.5	n.a.
Don Sutton	1969	17-18	96	-0.6	-0.37
Don Sutton	1970	15-13	94	-0.9	n.a.
Don Sutton	1971	17-12	127	2.7	n.a.
Don Sutton	1972	19-9	160	5.2	n.a.
Don Sutton	1973	18-10	142	3.7	n.a.
Don Sutton	1974	19-9	106	0.7	1.61
Don Sutton	1975	16-13	119	2.0	2.99
Don Sutton	1976	21-10	111	1.3	3.74
Don Sutton	1977	14-8	120	2.1	2.51
Don Sutton	1978	15-11	99	-0.3	-0.42
Don Sutton	1979	12-15	95	-0.7	-1.07
Don Sutton	1980	13-5	159	4.0	4.40
Don Sutton	1981	11-9	126	1.6	1.37
Don Sutton	1982	17-9	112	1.3	1.65
Don Sutton	1983	8-13	92	-1.1	-0.29
Don Sutton	1984	14-12	102	0.1	0.30
Don Sutton	1985	15-10	101	0.0	1.29
Don Sutton	1986	15-11	110	0.8	1.96
Don Sutton	1987	11-11	92	-1.0	-0.07
Don Sutton	1988	3-6	85	-0.7	-0.89
Career		324-256	108	19.0	28.21

68% of career covered by win values.? Don Sutton was a notorious Hall of Fame case a few years back, but win values is pretty kind to Sutton, especially in comparison to WAA.

Table 72: Win Values for Tommy John

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Tommy John	1963	0-2	164	0.2	n.a.
Tommy John	1964	2-9	92	-0.3	n.a.
Tommy John	1965	14-7	103	0.8	n.a.
Tommy John	1966	14-11	121	2.0	n.a.
Tommy John	1967	10-13	126	2.4	n.a.
Tommy John	1968	10-5	153	2.8	n.a.
Tommy John	1969	9-11	119	2.0	1.60
Tommy John	1970	12-17	119	2.2	n.a.
Tommy John	1971	13-16	100	-0.1	n.a.
Tommy John	1972	11-5	115	1.3	n.a.
Tommy John	1973	16-7	111	1.1	n.a.
Tommy John	1974	13-3	132	1.8	2.43
Tommy John	1975	Dnp	-	-	-
Tommy John	1976	10-10	110	0.9	0.34
Tommy John	1977	20-7	138	3.1	3.28
Tommy John	1978	17-10	107	0.5	-0.27
Tommy John	1979	21-9	138	3.9	3.92
Tommy John	1980	22-9	115	1.7	3.16
Tommy John	1981	9-8	136	2.0	1.56
Tommy John	1982	14-12	108	0.9	0.57
Tommy John	1983	11-13	93	-1.0	-0.68
Tommy John	1984	7-13	88	-1.4	-0.69
Tommy John	1985	4-10	72	-1.8	-1.08
Tommy John	1986	5-3	140	1.0	1.12
Tommy John	1987	13-6	109	0.7	0.54
Tommy John	1988	9-8	88	-1.4	0.06
Tommy John	1989	2-7	67	-1.7	-1.57
Career		288-231	110	23.6	26.69

65% of career covered by win values.? Tommy John missed a season in mid-career, but more than made up for it by pitching until he was 46.? Tommy John is a tough Hall of Fame call, though he is clearly greater than many HOF pitchers.?

Table 73: Win Values for Luis Tiant

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Luis Tiant	1964	10-4	127	1.1	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1965	11-11	99	-0.3	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1966	12-11	123	1.5	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1967	12-9	119	1.6	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1968	21-9	185	4.2	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1969	9-20	102	0.2	-1.21
Luis Tiant	1970	7-3	110	0.4	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1971	1-7	76	-1.2	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1972	15-6	169	3.6	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1973	20-13	120	2.3	n.a.
Luis Tiant	1974	22-13	132	3.9	4.71
Luis Tiant	1975	18-14	102	0.2	1.85
Luis Tiant	1976	21-12	128	3.2	3.51
Luis Tiant	1977	12-8	99	-0.1	0.72
Luis Tiant	1978	13-8	125	2.1	2.82
Luis Tiant	1979	13-8	105	0.3	0.71
Luis Tiant	1980	8-9	80	-1.8	-1.00
Luis Tiant	1981	2-5	92	-0.2	-0.75
Luis Tiant	1982	2-2	70	-0.6	-0.07
Career		229-172	114	20.4	24.49

58% of career covered by win values.? Luis Tiant also missed significant time in mid-career with a bad arm.? His Hall of Fame case seems to be centered on the fact that he was better than Catfish Hunter.

Table 74: Win Values for Rick Reuschel

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	Year	W-L	ERA+	WAA	Win Value
Rick Reuschel	1972	10-8	130	1.5	n.a.
Rick Reuschel	1973	14-15	132	3.0	n.a.
Rick Reuschel	1974	13-12	89	-1.6	-0.58
Rick Reuschel	1975	11-17	103	0.3	-0.14
Rick Reuschel	1976	14-12	112	1.3	1.37
Rick Reuschel	1977	20-10	158	5.0	5.67
Rick Reuschel	1978	14-15	118	1.9	0.32
Rick Reuschel	1979	18-12	114	1.5	1.77
Rick Reuschel	1980	11-13	115	1.8	0.93
Rick Reuschel	1981	8-11	119	1.2	0.44
Rick Reuschel	1982	Dnp	-	-	-
Rick Reuschel	1983	1-1	97	0.0	0.20
Rick Reuschel	1984	5-5	76	-1.6	-0.78
Rick Reuschel	1985	14-8	158

 

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