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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Starters
My first run-through of the dumber-than-Marcel projections for position players left me quite skeptical of the top-line free agents. Now I’ve done the pitchers, my sense is that once again it’s the middle-class free agents who will offer better value.
These projections are based on a 3/2/1/2 regressed weighted average of pitcher value stats, a 50-50 split of Fangraphs and CHONE numbers. It’s a half-FIP, half-RA projection. In the position player projections, I included a $ value ...Read More...
Friday, November 11, 2011
You Will Never See Anything Like Him Again: Jonathan Papelbon
I’m not saying that the Red Sox cannot replace Jonathan Papelbon’s production going forward, but I am saying that what he did for them (us) was incredible. With a 197 ERA+ for his career, a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs, Paps was just about as close to perfect for the Sox as a closer can be. Add to that the fake intense face, the dancing, the goofy Ricky Bobby persona, and you’ve got one of the most memorable Red Sox ever. Thanks for the memories.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Hitters
Last offseason I ran a short analysis of the available FA hitters and I concluded that the Red Sox should go after exactly none of them. Adrian Beltre looked like the one positional FA who would be a good gamble. I ended up getting talked into Carl Crawford over the remainder of the offseason, and that turned out less than well. I did, at the time, make a case against Jayson Werth that I still feel pretty good about. Given that we have three data points, sufficient to demonstrate that this ...Read More...
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Statements from the Boston Red Sox, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Terry Francona | redsox.com: Official Info
Tomorrow anonymous sources will report about satanic rituals in the bullpen.
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
In which analysis is outsourced
I had been playing around with some different back-of-the-envelope projection methods for Yu Darvish, and then I found out that SG over at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog had actually done all of that work already, and better. The key point to be made, with regard to Darvish, is just how much better he was in NPB than Matsuzaka. These were Matsuzaka’s ERA numbers in his last four seasons in NPB:
2.83, 2.90, 2.30, 2.13
Pretty damn good, right? And those were his age 22-25 seasons. ...Read More...
Thursday, October 13, 2011
This may have been posted when it first came out but I couldn’t find it in our archives. This is especially relevant with Theo heading out the door. The next GM may very well continue the transformation the Red Sox front office has undergone since John Henry purchased the Sox. Then again, maybe he won’t.
In any event, if you haven’t read the article already, you should read it.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Theo’s Legacy: 2003 and 2004
As it seems highly likely that Theo Epstein will be leaving the Boston Red Sox in the next few days, I wanted to go back over two of the greatest offseasons a general manager has ever had.
Theo Epstein inherited a club in 2003 with a great core of superstars (Pedro, Nomar, and Manny), some good complementary pieces (Damon, Nixon, Varitek, Lowe, Wakefield), and pretty much crap-all else. Most of the club’s payroll was already tied up in their stars, so he needed to fill out a championship ...Read More...
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Hot Stove I: Payroll and Roster
Whether you want the Sox to blow it up, bring the boys back for their redemption, or drop big money on top free agents to fix the club, you need to start with an understanding of the club’s current payroll situation. Before 2010, the Red Sox jacked up spending like crazy, and last season they maintained that payroll – if you discount some of the funny business with Gonzalez, they added to it by several million. I think it’s reasonable to expect another payroll in the range of $170M, and ...Read More...
Friday, October 07, 2011
Some very interesting comments and ownership insights into the team. Give it a listen.
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
One phenomena which is quite interesting to me is how most of the analysts calling for Theo’s head, and talking about what a flawed team the Red Sox are, are the same people who were talking about how great this team was in the spring and July. People (and by people I include the Red Sox ownership) need to relax and stay the course with this front office.
There are decisions in life, unfortunately, where you do everything right in preparation and consideration, but the outcome disappoints. ...Read More...
Not so ‘Free’ Agency
I stole this link from Philly over on SOSH: This BA article, which measures how homegrown each playoff team is, includes a comparison of the Red Sox and Yankees free-agent signings. The results are… not pretty. The whole thing is worth reading, but the takeaway is: in 2011, the Red Sox $67 million for free agent players and got back 2 (2!) WAR. That number is particularly friendly in that a) it doesn’t count Dice-K (because he wasn’t a free agent, per se?) and b) it uses $14 mil. for Crawford’s ...Read More...
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thank You Terry Francona
It appears that, per NESN, Terry Francona is out as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. Someone had suggested that we have a “Thank You Terry Francona” thread and that sounds like a good idea. Thanks Terry, you were at the helm during the most successful period for the Red Sox during my lifetime. It couldn’t have been easy, and for whatever small criticism I might have had over the years, you deserve the credit for those accomplishments. Good luck in whatever you choose to do next.
Have at it. ...Read More...
In which rumors are mongered
Let’s collect all the rumors about the Red Sox clubhouse. After yesterday’s press conference, it is now clear that interpersonal breakdowns, conflicts over authority, and general chaos in the clubhouse were important causes of the recent unpleasantness. At the very least, both Epstein and Francona espoused the view that clubhouse tensions lead to games lost.
I accept that not everyone finds this stuff fascinating, but I really do. And I know that we’ll never achieve certain ...Read More...
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Trader Theo and the Redemption Plan
I see two basic directions that this offseason could take for the Red Sox. You can basically bring back everyone, trusting in the team’s third-order winning percentage and boosting them with better depth and perhaps new coaching and training staffs. If you don’t want this same basic club back, but you do want to compete for the AL East next year, that will require major, blockbuster trades.
The Redemption Plan is pretty simple. You give these players a chance to redeem themselves. The ...Read More...
Point / Counterpoint
We must respond with blind, wild rage. Now is not the time for a careful accounting or a half-hearted defense of the men who created this broken team. It is time for rage, and not just any rage, but the pure and blinding rage where you forget your name and what your hands look like. Tear this club the #### down. Terry Francona, gone. Jonathan Papelbon, enjoy your big contract elsewhere, see if they can get you to throw a split-finger to the guy who’s sitting fastball. If any of the big ...Read More...
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
There isn’t a lot you can say about an individual, upcoming baseball game. What will determine tonight’s contest is how well the players play. I hope the Sox play well and the Orioles don’t.
The outcome of this game rests somewhat more on the shoulder of the starting pitcher than usual. Not only is Lester pitching on short rest in the biggest game of the season, but he’s pitching in front of a bullpen that is utterly gassed. In September, the Red Sox bullpen has had to cover an ...Read More...
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Managers have expiration dates
The monthlong unpleasantness has unified fans against a common enemy – Tito Francona. At this point, with a playoff spot still technically possible for the Red Sox, one can imagine scenarios in which Tito keeps his job, or perhaps even in which he deserves to keep his job. But it’s getting really hard for me to see. He’s lost the clubhouse so entirely, so evidently has no standing to lead this team out of their funk, that I have trouble imagining how he could get it back. Even a team ...Read More...
Friday, September 23, 2011
I learned how to write a Monte Carlo sim in Excel
Who says nothing good came out of the epic Sox collapse of aught-eleven?
Here’s your data. To make things a little cleaner, I’m not using as many different team quality scenarios. I have the pessimistic scenario, wherein the Sox are a terrible club (.48 ExpWP), and the Rays and Angels are very good (.6 and .57 ExpWP), I have the BPro W3% scenario, where the Sox at .61 lead the Rays and Angels at .57 and .53, and a parity scenario where the Sox at .55 are a bit behind the Rays and Angels at ...Read More...
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
I’m of the opinion that the Red Sox have actually gotten tight and have actually been affected by the pressure. As per the post a week ago, I don’t think that this means the team is screwed - slumps and choking events can end, human beings can get themselves together, and events can turn out ok. I’m still confident that these are professional baseball players who are likely to play professional baseball well when they take the field.
But I think that out on the field, the Red Sox have been ...Read More...
Monday, September 19, 2011
The Red Sox may lose the Wild Card
I don’t foresee myself having a lot of time to talk baseball in the next week, so y’all ought to have a thread. The chance of the Red Sox losing the Wild Card to the Rays is now somewhere 15 and 25%, and a lot of it depends on how well the Yankees play in their seven games with the Rays and three with the Sox. Today we are all Yankee fans. So even if the Sox do hang on, this has happened, and it is horrible.
Here are the numbers from the old log5 for the remaining schedule spreadsheet. I’m ...Read More...
Monday, September 12, 2011
In which I listen to Theo Epstein’s public statements
Theo gave an interview to WEEI this morning, helpfully transcribed at the Globe Extra Bases blog. I like what he had to say about the losing streak.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
So you say you want to piss your pants, well, you know (pt 2)
I’ve recently been posting some aggressively optimistic things about the Red Sox, even as they stumble awkwardly down the stretch like some sort of drunken Kevin Youkilis. I’d like to explain myself in a bit more detail, after yet another ugly loss.
There have been numbers tossed around in the other threads which were clearly based on a poorly calibrated PNOOMA system. 75% chance the Sox make the playoffs. No, it’s 85%. All while the BPro numbers still hold around 99%. One of the ...Read More...
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Call me Dr. Cliff Jinxtable
Today the Red Sox playoff odds on the BP postseason report broke over 99.95% and are listed at 100%. I think it’s time to start talking about the playoffs.
There are a lot of different topics worth covering, and this isn’t meant to cover all of them. We can do playoff roster and bench player stuff later, it’ll be fun, but the outcomes probably won’t matter much. What will probably matter is who pitches in a Game 4 and who pitches in the 7th inning. The big problem with the Red ...Read More...
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
A Series of Imaginable Significance
Unlike Terry Francona and Joe Girardi, I care who wins the American League East pennant. The three-game series between their clubs, which begins tonight in Boston, will shape that pennant race in important ways. This would be a bigger deal if either the Red Sox or Yankees, as organizations, appeared to care about the outcome of the race. With both teams secure in their playoff berths, barring historic meltdowns, we are unlikely to see three games managed with any particular intensity. But I ...Read More...
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Full LaRussa, or, One Month to Solve the Bullpen
The Red Sox have a relief problem. It’s not the worst relief problem a team has ever had, but it’s a peculiarly difficult one. (If by some chance the Sox make the playoffs), with Bard setting up Papelbon, we should have as good a 1-2 punch for the playoffs as any other team in the majors. However, the Red Sox are highly likely to have two starters in their rotation who can’t be expected to get through the 6th inning, let alone the 7th. And I have absolutely no idea who should be ...Read More...
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Tim Wakefield in comparative perspective
Tim Wakefield has been on the Red Sox for seventeen years now, an integral part of the club during the golden age of Red Sox baseball. Other than his first season with Boston in 1995, when Wakefield pitched a Moneyball avant la lettre side into the playoffs, Wakefield has been an innings eater rather than a star. There were several years, while I was living in Boston, when every time I got Sox tickets it seemed like Wakefield was starting. The first time I got tickets for a Wakefield start, ...Read More...
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
August is the 500est month
Counter to the happy expectations coming into the month, the Red Sox have failed to keep winning at a historically impressive rate. If you select your endpoint one week earlier, following that nice sweep of the Mariners, the Sox are 12-10 in their most recent stretch. This Red Sox team has been succeeding all year despite what appears on paper to be a very shaky pitching staff, and while one might expect the pitchers would be to blame, they aren’t. The staff has a perfectly solid 4ish ERA ...Read More...
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
the villageidiom stretch-run thread
Longtime therapudlian villageidiom has put together his high-expectations quickie forecast for the Red Sox down the stretch this season. I think this is a thing that is worth a thread. This is what he calls the “strawman forecast”, with one very small change that I will explain shortly:
1 vs. KC
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
The Red Sox have a very good defense
First the numbers. Fangraphs UZR has the Red Sox as the best defensive team in the AL with 38 runs saved above average, ahead of the Angels and Rays who are tied at +25. B-Ref’s TZ places the Sox in a dead heat for second with the Angels and Rays (all at about 28 runs saved above average), trailing the league leading Indians by about ten runs. The Red Sox have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the league, a .715 mark that places them in the middle of a crowd with the Indians, ...Read More...
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